De Blasio vs. Bush
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  De Blasio vs. Bush
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Poll
Question: Who would win this matchup
#1
NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D)
 
#2
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 67

Author Topic: De Blasio vs. Bush  (Read 5315 times)
RFayette
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« Reply #25 on: April 20, 2015, 07:33:54 PM »

he's not "ideologically extreme".  he played the part of the progressive to win the Dem primary, because Dem primary voters, especially in major cities, support major changes to the status quo and he proved able to say what they wanted to hear (but largely unable to do what they wanted him to do).

for otherwise-Democratic law enforcement personnel to make any kind of difference anywhere, the margin would have to be razor-thin to begin with, such that a dozen other factors could be pointed to as well.

I said "more extreme."  De Blasio is more liberal than Clinton and most other Dems.  It's the moderate Dems in the suburbs that carry the election; the Dem primary voters are the base.  If you're bleeding support in places like NoVA, S. Florida burbs, the Research Triangle, etc., then you're in for a bad election.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #26 on: April 20, 2015, 11:04:25 PM »

Jeb Bush would get to mock his brother for never getting to know what it feels like to have won 300+ Electoral Votes.

The default map...



Bush/ Safe carefully-vetted Republican- 337 Electoral Votes
De Blasio/ Klobuchar- 201 Electoral Votes


Out of curiosity, why do you have MN going Republican (especially with Klobuchar)?
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ChainsawJedis
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« Reply #27 on: April 20, 2015, 11:15:48 PM »

De Blasio is NOT a mainstream Democrat.

he managed the sitting Democratic president's wife's Senate campaign in 2000.  it doesn't get much more "mainstream" than that.

Michelle Obama ran for senate in 2000?

I believe he means HRC, since Bill was the sitting president at that time.
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Beet
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« Reply #28 on: April 21, 2015, 12:21:23 AM »

Jeb Bush would get to mock his brother for never getting to know what it feels like to have won 300+ Electoral Votes.

The default map...



Bush/ Safe carefully-vetted Republican- 337 Electoral Votes
De Blasio/ Klobuchar- 201 Electoral Votes


Out of curiosity, why do you have MN going Republican (especially with Klobuchar)?

VP doesn't really do anything.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #29 on: April 21, 2015, 01:04:37 AM »

I don't think it would be nearly the landslide you guys are making it out to be.
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Cory
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« Reply #30 on: April 21, 2015, 01:08:55 AM »

You guys are being completely unrealistic about this. With polarization as high as it is today, it's hard to see a Democrat getting below ~230 EVs.



I see a 2004-esque victory for Bush. Bush wins narrowly in Nevada. De Blasio wins narrowly in Iowa and Wisconsin, and somewhat narrowly in New Mexico.

I think you are overrating the inflexibility of the electorate when faced with a "Moderate" candidate from on party vs an "Extremist" from another.

We can't sit here and make Democratic landslide maps against Cruz or Palin and then turn around and say De-Blasio or Sanders gets gets a close election. We can't have it both ways.
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© tweed
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« Reply #31 on: April 21, 2015, 01:14:49 AM »

We can't sit here and make Democratic landslide maps against Cruz or Palin and then turn around and say De-Blasio or Sanders gets gets a close election. We can't have it both ways.

there's every indication that the Dem floor is high and getting higher.  Dems have outperformed the GOP since 1988.  5/6 PV wins; only one GOP majority (50.7% at that).
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #32 on: April 21, 2015, 08:09:36 AM »

We can't sit here and make Democratic landslide maps against Cruz or Palin and then turn around and say De-Blasio or Sanders gets gets a close election. We can't have it both ways.

there's every indication that the Dem floor is high and getting higher.  Dems have outperformed the GOP since 1988.  5/6 PV wins; only one GOP majority (50.7% at that).

They've never tried that floor with a socialist candidate.

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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #33 on: April 21, 2015, 08:14:14 AM »

We can't sit here and make Democratic landslide maps against Cruz or Palin and then turn around and say De-Blasio or Sanders gets gets a close election. We can't have it both ways.

there's every indication that the Dem floor is high and getting higher.  Dems have outperformed the GOP since 1988.  5/6 PV wins; only one GOP majority (50.7% at that).

They've never tried that floor with a socialist candidate.


Who said De Blasio was currently a socialist? 
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badgate
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« Reply #34 on: April 21, 2015, 10:25:41 AM »

De Blasio is NOT a mainstream Democrat.

he managed the sitting Democratic president's wife's Senate campaign in 2000.  it doesn't get much more "mainstream" than that.

Michelle Obama ran for senate in 2000?

I believe he means HRC, since Bill was the sitting president at that time.

Of course that's what he meant. It's still funny to see him take aim for the same tired True Leftist veiled jab at the concept of career politicians/political dynasties and fail so dramatically.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #35 on: April 21, 2015, 02:23:05 PM »

We can't sit here and make Democratic landslide maps against Cruz or Palin and then turn around and say De-Blasio or Sanders gets gets a close election. We can't have it both ways.

there's every indication that the Dem floor is high and getting higher.  Dems have outperformed the GOP since 1988.  5/6 PV wins; only one GOP majority (50.7% at that).

They've never tried that floor with a socialist candidate.


Who said De Blasio was currently a socialist? 

He's governing like one and has never disavowed his revolutionary socialist past.

He's far to the left of Obama. He's far to the left of Warren, for G-d's sake. And he's got one year's experience as Mayor, where his tenure has been less than well-regarded. Giving him the same floor as Kerry wound up with is absurd.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #36 on: April 21, 2015, 02:58:46 PM »

Jeb Bush would get to mock his brother for never getting to know what it feels like to have won 300+ Electoral Votes.

The default map...



Bush/ Safe carefully-vetted Republican- 337 Electoral Votes
De Blasio/ Klobuchar- 201 Electoral Votes


Out of curiosity, why do you have MN going Republican (especially with Klobuchar)?
Obama won Minnesota by under eight points.

Even with Klobuchar on the Democratic ticket, I think De Blasio would lose at least four points from Obama's numbers.

The Veep doesn't matter that much, and matters less when the election result isn't in doubt.
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WVdemocrat
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« Reply #37 on: April 21, 2015, 04:07:02 PM »

You guys are being completely unrealistic about this. With polarization as high as it is today, it's hard to see a Democrat getting below ~230 EVs.



I see a 2004-esque victory for Bush. Bush wins narrowly in Nevada. De Blasio wins narrowly in Iowa and Wisconsin, and somewhat narrowly in New Mexico.

I think you are overrating the inflexibility of the electorate when faced with a "Moderate" candidate from on party vs an "Extremist" from another.

We can't sit here and make Democratic landslide maps against Cruz or Palin and then turn around and say De-Blasio or Sanders gets gets a close election. We can't have it both ways.

If Sanders were the Democratic nominee, it would be a blowout. Joe the Plumber would defeat him. I don't think it would be a blowout against De Blasio. He'd have to get a more experienced running mate though. By the way, I don't think Cruz wouldn't lose in a landslide, I know it would be very easy to label him an extremist (which he is), but he is very articulate and very intelligent. He would be formidable on a debate stage. Palin on the other hand would be lucky to crack 100 EVs.
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Cory
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« Reply #38 on: April 21, 2015, 04:50:18 PM »

there's every indication that the Dem floor is high and getting higher.  Dems have outperformed the GOP since 1988.  5/6 PV wins; only one GOP majority (50.7% at that).

This is true, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
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jfern
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« Reply #39 on: April 21, 2015, 09:17:19 PM »

he's not "ideologically extreme".  he played the part of the progressive to win the Dem primary, because Dem primary voters, especially in major cities, support major changes to the status quo and he proved able to say what they wanted to hear (but largely unable to do what they wanted him to do).

for otherwise-Democratic law enforcement personnel to make any kind of difference anywhere, the margin would have to be razor-thin to begin with, such that a dozen other factors could be pointed to as well.

Face it, if you stand with the 83% of Americans who want stronger regulations for Wall Street, you are ideologically extreme.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/2013/09/16/poll-shows-americans-want-more-wall-street-regulation-five-years-after-the-financial-crisis
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RTX
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« Reply #40 on: April 21, 2015, 11:27:39 PM »

he's not "ideologically extreme".  he played the part of the progressive to win the Dem primary, because Dem primary voters, especially in major cities, support major changes to the status quo and he proved able to say what they wanted to hear (but largely unable to do what they wanted him to do).

for otherwise-Democratic law enforcement personnel to make any kind of difference anywhere, the margin would have to be razor-thin to begin with, such that a dozen other factors could be pointed to as well.

Face it, if you stand with the 83% of Americans who want stronger regulations for Wall Street, you are ideologically extreme.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/2013/09/16/poll-shows-americans-want-more-wall-street-regulation-five-years-after-the-financial-crisis
Poll by Americans for Financial Reform - a little biased? Also, 88% of those were "almost certain" to vote in the 2014 midterms, but we didn't see a wave of De Blasio/Warren types swept into office.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #41 on: April 22, 2015, 09:38:26 AM »

The only reason he won the Mayoralty of New York City is because Congressman Anthony Weiner defeated himself with his own behavior.

Weiner wasn't his main competition.  the frontrunner was the sitting Speaker of the City Council, Christine Quinn.

--

we really do have a bunch of idiots chirping around, don't we?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887323683504578567970526631886

Poll: Weiner Leaps to Front of Pack

Representative Who Resigned in Scandal Now Is Frontrunner in Mayoral Primary


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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #42 on: April 22, 2015, 10:14:36 AM »

In hindsight, why was the staunch Clintonite De Blasio loved by True Leftists?
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Beet
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« Reply #43 on: April 22, 2015, 10:17:33 AM »

The only reason he won the Mayoralty of New York City is because Congressman Anthony Weiner defeated himself with his own behavior.

Weiner wasn't his main competition.  the frontrunner was the sitting Speaker of the City Council, Christine Quinn.

--

we really do have a bunch of idiots chirping around, don't we?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887323683504578567970526631886

Poll: Weiner Leaps to Front of Pack

Representative Who Resigned in Scandal Now Is Frontrunner in Mayoral Primary




Yeah, it's clear in retrospect it was going to be either Weiner or De Blasio. If Weiner had not imploded, De Blasio would not be mayor.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #44 on: April 22, 2015, 12:36:21 PM »

We can't sit here and make Democratic landslide maps against Cruz or Palin and then turn around and say De-Blasio or Sanders gets gets a close election. We can't have it both ways.

there's every indication that the Dem floor is high and getting higher.  Dems have outperformed the GOP since 1988.  5/6 PV wins; only one GOP majority (50.7% at that).
There is the question of selection bias. Since parties tend to get kicked out after two terms, a period that begins with Democrats taking the White House would be expected to include 4 PV wins.

But the floor depends on Democrats having a strong candidate. If they have someone weaker than Clinton, Gore, Kerry or Obama, the usual political rules will not apply.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #45 on: April 22, 2015, 01:55:10 PM »

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