Would California still have a Republican Senator today if...

[Del Tachi]

Would the Golden State still have Republican representation in the U.S. Senate if it had never gotten out that Bruce Herschensohn attended a strip club, and thus he went on to narrowly defeat Barbara Boxer in the 1992 Senate election?

Herschensohn is 82 today, and he could reasonably still be in the Senate, so his age does not seem to be a reasonable bar to him from continuing his career in public service.  Could a GOP Senate incumbent have held-on in California in 1998?  2004?  2010?

[Skill and Chance]

Would the Golden State still have Republican representation in the U.S. Senate if it had never gotten out that Bruce Herschensohn attended a strip club, and thus he went on to narrowly defeat Barbara Boxer in the 1992 Senate election?

Herschensohn is 82 today, and he could reasonably still be in the Senate, so his age does not seem to be a reasonable bar to him from continuing his career in public service.  Could a GOP Senate incumbent have held-on in California in 1998?  2004?  2010?

2010: Likely Yes
2004: No
1998: Toss Up

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Interestingly enough, Barbara Boxer ran just over 3 points ahead of Kerry in 2004, winning with 57% and 20 points over her opponent. Kerry won by 10 points, but with 54% of the vote.

I'd say no Republican could overcome 2004. Maybe 1998, but they'd never make it to 2010.

[Bojack Horseman]

Think Boxer would have sought a rematch in 1998?

What if Dianne Feinstein had lost to Michael Huffington in 1994? Would he have been ousted in 2000?

[Vosem]

1998 would've been 50/50 for a strong Republican incumbent; 2000 would've been a probable defeat. 2004 was a pretty pro-incumbent year and I think a Republican who'd been there 12 years would've made it. 2010 would've been 50/50 again -- it was a Republican landslide, but it was also a very partisan/'aligning' year, with some Democratic areas moving towards the Democrats, which was an aspect that didn't really take place in 2014.

[RogueBeaver]

Would Herschensohn be considered a strong incumbent though? I'm doubtful, and far more doubtful about Huffington. Californians, did the CAGOP have any up-n'-comers with an ideological or talent profile similar to Wilson's, or even more moderate? Possibly building a popularity shield like Manchin or Collins today?

[pbrower2a]

This should be moved to the 'hypothetical' zone. Thank you.

[sg0508]

Matt Fong was neck and neck with Boxer in '98 until the Democrats came home at the end.  My guess is no.  CA is too polarized for Republicans to survive a while there now statewide.  Heck, they can't even win any race downballot anymore.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There is a window.  He could succeed in 1998 and 2004 if he builds strong popularity among voters and in 2010 has a pretty good chance of winning by the same token.  This assumes he takes unusual steps to create an "popularity shield" of some sort, the idea for which has been described already.  I can see him still in the Senate (remember, in 2004 PA's voters gave Arlen Specter enough votes that he ran four or so points ahead of Bush in the state.  It's possible for Herschonson to run ahead of Bush by at least six - especially if he has a bad challenger.  That's be enough for at least a 50-48% margin - another senate term.  It's also in my opinion that since 2010 is 2010, he'd likely win again that year.  So now in the Senate he'd be a bit like Arlen Specter.  But he most likely loses in 2016 or retires.  I mean, the man would be 84 on Election Day and would likely face Kamala Harris - I don't see him being a favorite.

[Хahar 🤔]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_187

[TDAS04]

Probably not.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

1998? Perhaps
2004? Of course not
2010? Probably not

[CapoteMonster]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_187

The nail in the coffin in more ways than one.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I don't believe that the strip club matter is what sunk Herschensohn.  Herschensohn was always considered a likable guy and good-natured; he was a conservative who didn't scare people. 

California was always a very liberal state, even in its Republican era.  By 1992, California's liberal tendencies were going to be expressed in its Senate selections.  I doubt, however, that Herschensohn would have been re-elected in 1998; he would have been viewed as an accidental Senator. 

[ElectionsGuy]

A Republican would not be able to win after the 1990's, so no.

[Sumner 1868]

I don't see Herschensohn even winning 1992; that year was the first crack for the California GOP.

[Emperor Charles V]

If Huffington won in 1994, he would've either resigned in 1997 amidst his messy divorce with Arianna (causing Pete Wilson to appoint a Republican to the seat who would go on to defeat in the Special Election, a la John Seymour in 1992) or retired after one term in 2000. I just can't see him running for re-election to certain defeat.

If Huffington resigned, either Feinstein would've likely made a political comeback and defeated the sacrificial lamb Republican appointed by Wilson, or Gray Davis would defeated him/her and Feinstein would've run for Governor in 1998 (and won). If he retired in 2000, the near-certain Democratic nominee would've been Bill Lockyer.

[Dan the Roman]

I think 1998 would have been an almost certain loss. It was a bloodbath for the GOP at the top of the ticket and you had Clinton's impeachment. The two together would arguably of made it as hard as 2004.

By that later date the only thing the year was really effecting was whether a Republican got 44% or 38%. As in New York, the math had simply turned too hostile for a Republican to win.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Probably not.  California started trending D in the 90s due to social issues.  I understand Pete Wilson was considered vulnerable against Kathleen Brown in 1994 until he began attacking her on illegal immigration.