Brooklyn's population growth question
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Torie
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« on: April 21, 2015, 03:40:34 PM »

I was amazed to learn that Brooklyn is growing in population since 2010 at a quite rapid pace - at the present rate it will grow by over 11% in population, above the national average I believe. Does anyone know (at least anecdotally) where in Brooklyn the nodes of rapid growth are? Is it on the waterfront facing Manhattan mostly, from Sunset Park up through Greenpoint?
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2015, 03:46:14 PM »

Hipsters reproduce asexually when exposed to 90s indie tracks.  Check Williamsburg.
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Torie
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« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2015, 03:57:50 PM »

Hipsters reproduce asexually when exposed to 90s indie tracks.  Check Williamsburg.

Is this true BRTD? Tongue
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2015, 04:07:06 PM »

Hipsters reproduce asexually when exposed to 90s indie tracks.  Check Williamsburg.

Is this true BRTD? Tongue

Of course.  How do you think he's had a daughter without the sex?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2015, 04:42:56 PM »

Hipsters reproduce asexually when exposed to 90s indie tracks.  Check Williamsburg.

Is this true BRTD? Tongue

Of course.  How do you think he's had a daughter without the sex?

BRTD has a kid Huh
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Torie
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« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2015, 04:46:11 PM »

FC threads certainly have a life of their own don't they? I mean, who could have imagined where this thread would go? Smiley
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2015, 04:46:46 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2015, 04:54:51 PM by SMilo »

Brooklyn Heights property is soaring too due to the same phenomenon. It's all along there.

I'd also zero in on East New York. No reason for that to have slowed from the last decade.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2015, 04:53:30 PM »

The Census does not make estimates for sub-municipal areas, but it does report components of population change, which can give some indirect hints. For Brooklyn from 2010-2014:

total population change +117,084
natural increase +111,974 (births 180,295, deaths 68,321)
net migration +6,688 (international +99,123, domestic -92,435)

So, it's really caused by natural increase and international migration, with domestic migration still very negative. I'd guess that the Hasidic areas have the highest birth rate and the Asian and Hispanic areas in (roughly) the southwest of the borough have the highest immigration.
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2015, 05:51:03 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2015, 05:57:58 PM by Torie »

Brooklyn Heights property is soaring too due to the same phenomenon. It's all along there.

I'd also zero in on East New York. No reason for that to have slowed from the last decade.

Below are the projected population percentages changes, if growth rates continue at the same rate for the balance of the decade. The rest of the counties overall in NY are actually losing a bit of population. When it comes to NY, NYC is where it is at - now more than ever.  

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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2015, 06:01:41 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2015, 06:08:25 PM by SMilo »

Brooklyn Heights property is soaring too due to the same phenomenon. It's all along there.

I'd also zero in on East New York. No reason for that to have slowed from the last decade.

Below are the projected population percentages changes, if growth rates continue at the same rate for the balance of the decade. The rest of the counties overall in NY are actually losing a bit of population. When it comes to NY, NYC is where it is at - now more than ever.  



Just to clarify - I meant East New York, the area of Brooklyn, since your response seems to imply something else (unless you didn't mean to quote). That almost certainly should be near the top. Easy to forget on the other side of the borough when the prosperity is near Manhattan. It grew at double digits last decade. I don't see why it would change.
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2015, 06:05:29 PM »

Brooklyn Heights property is soaring too due to the same phenomenon. It's all along there.

I'd also zero in on East New York. No reason for that to have slowed from the last decade.

Below are the projected population percentages changes, if growth rates continue at the same rate for the balance of the decade. The rest of the counties overall in NY are actually losing a bit of population. When it comes to NY, NYC is where it is at - now more than ever.  



Just to clarify - I meant East New York, the area of Brooklyn, since your response seems to imply something else. That's almost certainly should be near the top. Easy to forget on the other side of the borough when the prosperity is near Manhattan.

That is a hood, or just the east side of Brooklyn? The east side of Brooklyn per the 2010 census was mostly black.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #11 on: April 21, 2015, 06:06:23 PM »

I think the fastest growing neighborhood in Brooklyn and coincidentally the best neighborhood, is Bedford-Stuyvesvant.

Here's my bet:

-Some black areas are growing, like East New York because fewer black people can afford Clinton Hill or Bed-Stuy.  

-Some rezoned/new construction areas are growing, Williamsburg, East Williamsburg, Dumbo, Downtown Brooklyn, etc.

-Borough Park and South Williamsburg are growing fast due to Hasidic Jews having 10 children.

-Asian neighborhoods are growing like Bensonhurst and Sunset Park.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2015, 07:18:44 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2015, 07:26:03 PM by traininthedistance »

The biggest component of Brooklyn's population growth is likely, as Linus has already pointed out, Hasidic babies and immigrants– mostly from China and the West Indes.  Hipsters moving in (and I guess I count as one of them for the purposes of this exercise) do have an effect on some neighborhoods, but their absolute numbers can't be that high, given the net negative domestic migration #s.*  Where are the areas where natives are leaving, you might ask?  Well, some of the more outlying minority areas (East Flatbush, Flatlands, Canarsie, Cypress Hills, East NY– which I don't actually believe is growing) are still straight-up losing population, that's the first place to look.  I'd also expect negative domestic migration in areas like Bensonhurst where old-timer "white ethnics" are being replaced by, largely, Chinese immigrants.** The bad old "white flight" mindset is not completely dead yet.  Probably not in the gentrifying areas: the numbers would be neutral there even if it was purely a process of displacement, and especially in areas like Williamsburg the housing supply is increasing, so it's not.

*I'm sure a lot of those hipster invaders, of course, are folks who were priced out of Manhattan. Tongue

**Also many of the black-majority areas have a similar process going on, where native-born blacks are leaving, and being replaced by Caribbean immigrants.
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Sol
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« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2015, 09:38:26 PM »

Isn't East New York having a massive real estate boom at the moment.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #14 on: April 21, 2015, 10:33:14 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2015, 10:35:09 PM by traininthedistance »

Isn't East New York having a massive real estate boom at the moment.

There's been some discussion about rezoning for growth (with a lot of that rezoning being set aside for affordable housing). That's very recent, though.

Hm:



This seems to indicate that East New York has actually been growing since the turn of the millennium (it's the large medium-blue splotch on the east edge of Brooklyn).  I stand corrected!  I think most of that growth is immigration from the Caribbean, with perhaps a side-helping of people displaced from closer-in neighborhoods.  It's one of the more depressed areas out there; I would assume that a lot of the growth so far is filling in vacancies without a need for much new construction, though that slack appears to be disappearing.

This map also does not show any sort of Hasidic baby boom, which seems implausible...
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #15 on: April 21, 2015, 10:50:44 PM »

This map also does not show any sort of Hasidic baby boom, which seems implausible...

See I understood the Asian boom in Bensonhurst but the Hasidic baby boom made less sense to me. I'm sure they're growing slightly, but they've had large families forever. The 12 kids in the last generation are being replaced by say 10 in this one. But it can't possibly be that they all remain in Brooklyn. That's just unsustainable without spreading out to other parts of Brooklyn which is near unthinkable since they stay as a community. A surprising amount may actually move to Lakewood - it may be anecdotal but I worked at a park last summer where they accounted for nearly all the guests. Conversed with a ton of them and it seemed to be that a lot had moved from Brooklyn (and oddly SI?). I expected a lot more to have been born and raised there.

I'd imagine many also go the other way to Long Island, but I'm not as familiar with the makeup of all the areas out there. I'd also wager some go to places around the world - UK, South Africa, surely many others from what I've seen.

So basically the large families are nothing new and there isn't any type of multiplication factor because it's not feasible. That's my theory. I know it's not grounded in numbers so if I have any history wrong the intuition would be rendered worthless.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #16 on: April 21, 2015, 11:04:10 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2015, 11:15:12 PM by traininthedistance »

This map also does not show any sort of Hasidic baby boom, which seems implausible...

See I understood the Asian boom in Bensonhurst but the Hasidic baby boom made less sense to me. I'm sure they're growing slightly, but they've had large families forever. The 12 kids in the last generation are being replaced by say 10 in this one. But it can't possibly be that they all remain in Brooklyn. That's just unsustainable without spreading out to other parts of Brooklyn which is near unthinkable since they stay as a community. A surprising amount may actually move to Lakewood - it may be anecdotal but I worked at a park last summer where they accounted for nearly all the guests. Conversed with a ton of them and it seemed to be that a lot had moved from Brooklyn (and oddly SI?). I expected a lot more to have been born and raised there.

I'd imagine many also go the other way to Long Island, but I'm not as familiar with the makeup of all the areas out there. I'd also wager some go to places around the world - UK, South Africa, surely many others from what I've seen.

So basically the large families are nothing new and there isn't any type of multiplication factor because it's not feasible. That's my theory. I know it's not grounded in numbers so if I have any history wrong the intuition would be rendered worthless.

Yeah, that makes sense.  Move out to Lakewood, Five Towns, Kiryas Joel, New Square...

Would also help explain why the domestic net migration remains so stubbornly negative even in the face of Brooklyn's "hipness".
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2015, 01:29:24 PM »

Torie, why not drop this turd on muon2's board instead of here?
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danny
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« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2015, 01:56:08 PM »

Yeah, that makes sense.  Move out to Lakewood, Five Towns, Kiryas Joel, New Square...

Would also help explain why the domestic net migration remains so stubbornly negative even in the face of Brooklyn's "hipness".

Another factor would be if the Hasidic population spread to neighbouring areas near theirs. I noticed that south of the Hasidic part of Williamsburg was fast growing so I checked google and found this: http://walk.allcitynewyork.com/2011/08/tract-1237.html
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Torie
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« Reply #19 on: April 22, 2015, 03:20:24 PM »

Torie, why not drop this turd on muon2's board instead of here?

Because I wanted it to be noticed, because I was soliciting help, which I have received. Thanks guys - all quite fascinating. I appreciate it. One purpose for the FC is for "help me" threads. But if you don't like it, Grumps, report it.  You need to find a new hobby around here, other than Gully, Bushie, and Torie bashing, perhaps. Just a thought. Yes, I know what you will do with that little suggestion of mine.  I love you too. Tongue
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Brittain33
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« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2015, 09:54:23 PM »

Following up on LVP's point, no borough has gained population from domestic migration over the past five years. By the same measure, the Census estimate for Brooklyn (-92k) only lags behind Manhattan (-487k).

Isn't that like 30% of Manhattan's population moving away and getting replaced? Seems incredibly high.
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Torie
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« Reply #21 on: April 23, 2015, 06:57:01 AM »

Following up on LVP's point, no borough has gained population from domestic migration over the past five years. By the same measure, the Census estimate for Brooklyn (-92k) only lags behind Manhattan (-487k).

Isn't that like 30% of Manhattan's population moving away and getting replaced? Seems incredibly high.

Young ambitious and/or dreamy kids move to the Big Apple after college or whatever, and then get hitched, can't cut it or afford it, or whatever, and move out? Hasn't that been happening since rocks cooled?  Anyway, it seems that half of the population of Hudson sometimes is from Manhattan (with Brooklyn now showing up on the radar screen).  I have yet to find anyone else from Orange County, CA living here however. Tongue
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #22 on: April 23, 2015, 01:12:35 PM »

Following up on LVP's point, no borough has gained population from domestic migration over the past five years. By the same measure, the Census estimate for Brooklyn (-92k) only lags behind Manhattan (-487k).

Isn't that like 30% of Manhattan's population moving away and getting replaced? Seems incredibly high.

Young ambitious and/or dreamy kids move to the Big Apple after college or whatever, and then get hitched, can't cut it or afford it, or whatever, and move out? Hasn't that been happening since rocks cooled?  Anyway, it seems that half of the population of Hudson sometimes is from Manhattan (with Brooklyn now showing up on the radar screen).  I have yet to find anyone else from Orange County, CA living here however. Tongue

But if they're moving in and then moving out, that's zero net migration?  I agree that those numbers don't seem to pass the smell test– the only thing I can think of is, actually, looking at the neighborhood map I posted earlier, Dominicans and Puerto Ricans moving out of Washington Heights faster than they move in these days?  That area seems to actually be losing population.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #23 on: April 23, 2015, 08:19:39 PM »

Here are the annual domestic migration estimates for New York County:

DOMESTIC MIGRATION
2010:   -24674
2011:   -84179
2012:   -116346
2013:   -107730
2014:   -153921

For comparison, here are international migration and natural increase estimates:

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
2010:   +24130
2011:   +113261
2012:   +110105
2013:   +118929
2014:   +118799

NATURAL INCREASE
2010:   +24510
2011:   +93359
2012:   +93032
2013:   +88431
2014:   +86353

Note that the 2010 numbers only cover three months (4/1/2010 - 6/30/2010).

Where are you getting these numbers? On the census website, the cumulative 2010-2014 net domestic migration for New York County (Manhattan) is -53,493, less than Brooklyn and far less than your total.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #24 on: April 23, 2015, 09:06:56 PM »

OK, no worries - I agree the Census does not have the most user-friendly web site.
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