You know...I just feel like posting again, since we have a lot of snarkiness in this thread with respect to the overall notion.
In campaigning, a good, large ground game/field operation in a "politically-developed" and/or competitive area is said to be able to produce three points for the candidate that he or she otherwise wouldn't receive. The reality is that when you are talking about areas that haven't been organized or campaigned in significantly in many cycles...there is potential for a lot more. Let's use my home county (Whitfield) and
last year's gubernatorial results as an example.
I was responsible for my own county in the coordinated campaign, as well as providing some minimal assistance to other shabby volunteer groups scattered in nearby counties. I was able to put together a force of around two dozen people in my own county who gave at least an hour per week for six months. In the grand scheme of things, not a whole lot - or so it would seem. By and large, the remainder of the counties tucked in the far NW corner didn't do much at all. We made a few thousand phone calls, knocked on a few hundred doors, did various forms of media and in the end, spent about $4,000 in the county. Now look at the swing map - in the northwest corner - and notice that it was the hardest-swinging county to Carter
in the state/the only red county. That was a swing of more than 11 points we managed to create - from 22.9% in 2010 to 28.6% in 2012. We added 800 net votes in the Governor's race compared to 2010 (despite overall turnout countywide dropping by 400 votes); $5 per net new vote.
Now imagine replicating such efforts across the majority of the counties in a given congressional district, or hell, in a state (or...the whole damn country). A more reasonable goal on a larger scale - while still being orchestrated by individual counties - might be an 8-point swing/4-point increase in Democratic performance. Fairly-organized, low-cost, county-level operations in areas that haven't been organized historically or are deemed non-competitive will generate more of a swing than in a competitive area or already contested area. It sounds positively bonkers, but if you can build sustaining volunteer organizations in a large number of counties, use data and effective techniques, and seed these counties with a few grand in tangible funds, then you can make a difference in plenty of worthwhile jurisdictions. They're doing the right thing.
More food for thought: there are
55 House Republicans currently elected in districts that have CPVIs of R+4 or less.
