Which McCain state does Hillary have the best chance of winning?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

None, and I'm still nowhere near convinced she'll have a good shot at holding North Carolina/Colorado/Iowa.

Doesn't need them if she wins Ohio.

True, but it doesn''t exactly bode well downballot (All three states have competitve Senate Elections, among other things).

And yes, I do think Ohio will be closer than North Carolina and Colorado (Iowa, however could take most the night to decide)

Iowa does not have a competitive senate race. Grassley is uber-popular and utterly safe, even if Tom Vilsack runs.

We're still assuming Grassley won't change his mind right before the filing deadline or something?

He's said he's running for reelection, and I see no reason not to believe him.

[Sumner 1868]

She will carry none of them.

[pbrower2a]

None, and I'm still nowhere near convinced she'll have a good shot at holding North Carolina/Colorado/Iowa.

Doesn't need them if she wins Ohio.

True, but it doesn''t exactly bode well downballot (All three states have competitve Senate Elections, among other things).

And yes, I do think Ohio will be closer than North Carolina and Colorado (Iowa, however could take most the night to decide)

Iowa does not have a competitive senate race. Grassley is uber-popular and utterly safe, even if Tom Vilsack runs.

Iowa is super-safe unless Senator Grassley retires, in which case the state is wide open.

[Xing]

She won't win any of these except in a landslide, but if I HAD to pick one, I'd say GA, due to the inelasticity of AZ, and the Republican trend in MO. Also... LOL Arkansas. Not going to happen.

[Stranger in a strange land]

AZ > GA > MO > AR, though none are very likely.

[Former Democrat]

none

[King]

Arizona is always threatening to vote Dem but never does.

[TDAS04]

Arizona is always threatening to vote Dem but never does.

Clinton carried it in 1996.  Obama might have in 2008 if it weren't for McCain's home state advantage.
The demographics should make it in play soon.  2016 will be difficult, but it's possible.

[Nyvin]

Probably none of them.

But out of the ones listed I guess GA is the best bet, just going by how close the 2014 Senate race was.

Missouri is a wild card, but I still doubt she'll win there either.

[Mr. Illini]

She will play better in the south than Obama did, but demographically it looks like she will have a better chance of actually winning in Arizona

[Skill and Chance]

She will play better in the south than Obama did, but demographically it looks like she will have a better chance of actually winning in Arizona

Not at all convinced of this in the Deep South.  I think black turnout and margin is controlling there nowadays. 

[Mr. Illini]

She will play better in the south than Obama did, but demographically it looks like she will have a better chance of actually winning in Arizona

Not at all convinced of this in the Deep South.  I think black turnout and margin is controlling there nowadays. 

Overall, but no, not in the deep south. Particularly she will in the upper south and on the coasts.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona is always threatening to vote Dem but never does.

Several threats to do so? It's a matter of time.

By the way -- Arizona went for Bill Clinton in 1996.

 

[bobloblaw]

I like her chances in Missouri and Georgia more than Arizona.

Given Michelle Nunn's flop with the white vote, I dont see Hillary winning in GA

[bobloblaw]

I like her chances in Missouri and Georgia more than Arizona.

Given Michelle Nunn's flop with the white vote, I dont see Hillary winning in GA

GA was no more GOP leaning in its electorate in 2014 than in 2012. The 2014 electorate was 31-32% black, up from 2010 but steady from 2012. David Perdue and Nathan Deal were not inspiring candidates and lots of whites sat home as well as other groups.

[DS0816]

She will carry none of them.

This depends on the difference in margins between 2012 and 2016.

No electoral map has ever been duplicated between two elections.

So, I don't expect 2016 to look exactly the same as a previous election's map.