Westchester vs. Long Island

[King of Kensington]

The obvious answer to the question to why Westchester votes more Democratic is that it has a lower percentage of NHWs than Nassau/Suffolk.  But I'm wondering if there's more to it than that.  Are Westchester whites significantly more liberal than Long Island whites?  Some points to think about:

- The ethnic composition of the white population of both Westchester and Long Island seems pretty similar, both are heavily Italian American and Jewish and I don't think the proportions of either group are that different between the two areas.  Westchester though is perceived as more old money "WASP" (and it probably is a bit more) - as it developed largely as a railroad suburb while Long Island is mostly 50s/60s suburbia - but it's not that high.  So I don't think the ethnic composition of the white population provides much of an explanation.

- Westchester has a higher percentage of college and graduate degrees overall and when one looks at the white population alone it would be an ever big difference.  In the New York area, it seems that college-educated, professional whites are more liberal than the non college-educated white working class/lower middle class.  This likely breaks down at VERY high levels of income, which are of course found both in both Westchester and Long Island.

- Westchester has the "artsy" river towns (i.e. Hastings on Hudson, Tarrytown) which likely attracts a more liberal demographic than tract suburbia.  I suppose Long Island has the Hamptons but that attracts wealth of all sorts (from tycoons to the Hollywood types - also how many of these people actually have their primary residences there?).

- Westchester wealth seems to come more from the "traditional path" (i.e. law firm partners, Wall St. etc.) while Long Island Island likely has more non-traditional sources of wealth (more self-made/entrepreneurial). 

[jimrtex]

The obvious answer to the question to why Westchester votes more Democratic is that it has a lower percentage of NHWs than Nassau/Suffolk.  But I'm wondering if there's more to it than that.  Are Westchester whites significantly more liberal than Long Island whites?  Some points to think about:

- The ethnic composition of the white population of both Westchester and Long Island seems pretty similar, both are heavily Italian American and Jewish and I don't think the proportions of either group are that different between the two areas.  Westchester though is perceived as more old money "WASP" (and it probably is a bit more) - as it developed largely as a railroad suburb while Long Island is mostly 50s/60s suburbia - but it's not that high.  So I don't think the ethnic composition of the white population provides much of an explanation.

- Westchester has a higher percentage of college and graduate degrees overall and when one looks at the white population alone it would be an ever big difference.  In the New York area, it seems that college-educated, professional whites are more liberal than the non college-educated white working class/lower middle class.  This likely breaks down at VERY high levels of income, which are of course found both in both Westchester and Long Island.

- Westchester has the "artsy" river towns (i.e. Hastings on Hudson, Tarrytown) which likely attracts a more liberal demographic than tract suburbia.  I suppose Long Island has the Hamptons but that attracts wealth of all sorts (from tycoons to the Hollywood types - also how many of these people actually have their primary residences there?).

- Westchester wealth seems to come more from the "traditional path" (i.e. law firm partners, Wall St. etc.) while Long Island Island likely has more non-traditional sources of wealth (more self-made/entrepreneurial). 

Westchester is closer to Manhattan, and Yonkers is a relatively large city (4th largest in NY, bigger than Syracuse or Albany) and about 1/5 of the county population. What might be thought of typical Westchester County (Rye or Tarrytown) are not actually typical of Westchester County.

When the modern 5-borough NYC was formed, Queens, the Bronx, and Queens were comparable in population, and totally dominated by the twin cities.  The Bronx filled up before Queens, and the spillover into Westchester occurred much sooner than into Nassau.

1920: Westchester 344K, Nassau 128K.

By 1950: Nassau had barely caught Westchester, but then close to doubled in the 1950s, and it had a significant aircraft industry it is more classic suburban sprawl.

[Torie]

These days beyond the percentage of persons of color, perhaps the other most salient variable to the extent it is true, is that I suspect a much higher percentage of the Jews on Long Island are Orthodox, than in Westchester. And the variance in voting habits between Orthodox Jews and more secular Jews is just massive in the NYC orbit.

Below is how the high income traditionally Jewish suburb of Scarsdale voted in 2008.

[Brittain33]

Oh, this subject line is chum in the water for Torie.

[Torie]

Oh, this subject line is chum in the water for Torie.

Can you hear NYJew or whatever his name was, saying Amen brother! when he reads my post out there from his lair in Borough Park or wherever?  I wonder what his projected  date is for the Orthodox takeover of Scarsdale.

[Sol]

It should be noted that, IIRC, Yonkers voted slightly to the right of Westchester County in 2008.

I doubt that very many Hasidim will move to Scarsdale--it is quite an expensive place and the Hasidim tend to be more lower income.

[King of Kensington]

Had a look at the Jewish and Italian American populations, using the American Factfinder and the 2011 Jewish population study for New York.  A bit of a difference, but nothing dramatic.

Jewish population:

Nassau  230,000 (17%)
Suffolk  86,000 (6%)
Long Island  316,000 (11%)

Westchester  136,000 (14%)

Italian American population:

Nassau  290,000 (22%)
Suffolk  411,000 (27%)
Long Island  700,000 (25%)

Westchester  178,000 (19%)

So Long Island Jews outnumber Westchester Jews by about 2-1, Long Island Italians outnumber Westchester Italians by about 4-1.  Nassau however is a bit more Jewish as a percentage of the population than Westchester though (and Suffolk is far less than either)

Westchester Jews are also almost certainly more liberal (i.e. more your standard "liberal elites" and members of the Reform movement) than their Long Island counterparts.

[Torie]

It should be noted that, IIRC, Yonkers voted slightly to the right of Westchester County in 2008.

I doubt that very many Hasidim will move to Scarsdale--it is quite an expensive place and the Hasidim tend to be more lower income.

I guess you are not familiar with NYJew's posts.  That house in my signature is in Brooklyn, and the precinct it is in (99.5% white - it has 2 Hispanics and 2 Asians in it and 0 blacks per the 2010 census) voted 84% for McCain by the way. It's clear, that if the Hasidim, or whatever the particular Orthodox Jewish sect, really want to live somewhere, they will outbid everybody else for the housing stock. They mean business!

[King of Kensington]

It should be noted that, IIRC, Yonkers voted slightly to the right of Westchester County in 2008.

Working class Italians and Irish presumably.

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Not all Orthodox are Hasidim. 

[cinyc]

Westchester is less non-Hispanic white (55.7%) than Nassau (63.3%) or especially Suffolk (70.1%).  It has a higher percentage of people below the poverty line (9.5%) than Long Island (both counties in the 6% range).  And parts are a lot more urban than Long Island.  Westchester has a number of incorporated cities (Yonkers, White Plains, Mount Vernon, New Rochelle, etc.).  Nassau and Suffolk have none.

Westchester is a bellwether county in New York elections, while Nassau and Suffolk are usually a little more Republican than the statewide average.  In Westchester itself, the city of Yonkers usually votes more or less in line with the rest of the county.  The heavily African-American city of Mount Vernon and the heavily Jewish towns of Scarsdale and Greenburgh tend to vote Democratic, while the towns of Eastchester, Harrison, Pelham and Mount Pleasant and much of the less urban northern part of the county tend to vote Republican.  Those towns are generally less Jewish and more Italian. 

The State Senate tried to gerrymander a Westchester State Senate seat that a Republican could theoretically win by combining some of the named towns and a few others with Republican-leaning parts of Yonkers, but so far, the district has only elected Democrats.  On Long Island, Democratic-leaning portions of the counties were (so-far) successfully split between State Senate Districts so that those districts elect Republicans.

[King of Kensington]

Yes, Westchester is much more starkly divided in terms of socioeconomics (rich and poor) than Long Island which has a much bigger middle, with a lot of high income and few low income.  Hence the median household and family incomes are higher on LI than Westchester, but Westchester has a higher per capita income. 

The NHW population in both Nassau and Westchester counties are both roughly 1/3 Italian, 1/4 Jewish.  

[King of Kensington]

The Bronx filled up before Queens, and the spillover into Westchester occurred much sooner than into Nassau.

That's a very good point.  Queens is a much larger area and even as late as the 1940s a lot of the borough wasn't yet built up yet.   During the postwar years eastern Queens grew a lot and served as a "suburb in the city."