NY with 26 CDs in 2020

[traininthedistance]

Torie- wouldn't the Rochester district want to take Ontario rather than Orleans, if the UCCs stay the same?

I have to feel that 18 could be a little less nicer, somehow, as well.  Perhaps have 17 go up the east side of the Hudson and make 18 mostly a Rockland-Orange district?

Certainly Albany and the North Country are far better than muon's map, that's good at least.

[traininthedistance]

I get your motivation now. Political realities are important, and it would be interesting to see how something like this fared on the Pareto test. Could it make the cut to go to the finals where it should fare well?

If the populations are equal then your chop of Ulster should be about 10K. The NYC UCC + Sullivan is only 3K over the population of 18 CDs. That's why it became the basis for my plan. Since Columbia projects to have 13K less than Sullivan, that leaves 10K to come from Ulster.

I still don't see how you chop into Suffolk when it is underpopulated for 2 CDs. The chop should be from Suffolk into Nassau.

I had not redrawn the Long Island burb CD's until this morning. The map is below. I redrew from my prior good government map CD's 1, 2, 3 and 4, and then reconnected NY-06.  There is no point in going further with the data we have in redrawing the NYC CD's, which are driven by the VRA and cross borough lines all over the place. Interestingly, until I realized Smithtown needed to be appended to NY-01 (to minimize the town chop size), CD's 1,2, 3 and 4 all were just about dead even from a PVI standpoint. With the Smithtown revision, NY-01 moves to about a 2% Pub PVI, but NY-02 is still in the even range, at about a 0.5% Dem PVI. NY-03 is about 0.5% Pub, with NY-04 about a 2.0% Dem PVI. So the four CD's achieve near perfect political symmetry (circa 2008 anyway).

As to NYC come to think of it, one potentially nettlesome issue for the redistrictors assuming the black population in Brooklyn is lagging, is what to do about the two existing black CD's there. Does one create two say 40% BVAP CD's, or maybe even high 30's, or one black CD over 50% BVAP. What will the evidence show on that one, as to what percentage will allow African Americans to elect the candidate of their choice. It tandem with that question, will be just what percentage of Hispanics can be expected to vote by 2022, and over the course of the ensuing decade Since the Hispanics are cheek to towel with the blacks, and in many precincts per the 2010 census, living in the same precincts in high percentages. It potentially is an evidentiary nightmare, and so what is one to do, absent the evidence being researched, and adduced?

Well, if you're allowing the Brooklyn districts to go under 50% black (and you certainly can do so, while preserving the "candidate of choice" test) then presumably you could also keep the SE Queens district entirely within Queens, even with a BVAP in the mid-40s or whatever.

[traininthedistance]

NY-06, the way I drew, is probably the most ethnically heterodox CD in the US:  32.4% WVAP, 24.7% AVAP, 23.6% HVAP, and 17.2% BVAP.  ☺ I wonder what it will be like in 2022.  Given the VRA, I suspect something like it will have to be drawn (well the map makers might not care about NY-04 making a traveling chop to the Bronx through Queens, and/or caring whether there is a bridge connection, but I digress).  I did try to draw NY-04 so that it took the entire southern tier of NY-06, and lost its northern Queens salient, so that NY-06 had a better shape, but the population numbers did not work.

Well, the current NY-6 is already 37% Asian (and rising!) and represented by Grace Meng.  I don't think people will take kindly to blowing that up.

Also, I didn't notice this before, but nice work chopping Borough Park to keep NY-11 Pub.  That was slick.  If you're going to draw that Southern Brooklyn Pub district, least you can do is keep all the Hasids together.

[traininthedistance]

NY-06, the way I drew, is probably the most ethnically heterodox CD in the US:  32.4% WVAP, 24.7% AVAP, 23.6% HVAP, and 17.2% BVAP.  ☺ I wonder what it will be like in 2022.  Given the VRA, I suspect something like it will have to be drawn (well the map makers might not care about NY-04 making a traveling chop to the Bronx through Queens, and/or caring whether there is a bridge connection, but I digress).  I did try to draw NY-04 so that it took the entire southern tier of NY-06, and lost its northern Queens salient, so that NY-06 had a better shape, but the population numbers did not work.

Well, the current NY-6 is already 37% Asian (and rising!) and represented by Grace Meng.  I don't think people will take kindly to blowing that up.

Also, I didn't notice this before, but nice work chopping Borough Park to keep NY-11 Pub.  That was slick.  If you're going to draw that Southern Brooklyn Pub district, least you can do is keep all the Hasids together.

COI does not count (except for VRA considerations). I followed ward lines between NY-08 and NY-11. Prior to doing that, I made the line as straight as possible, but my protocol is that following ward lines takes precedence (unless the erosity by doing so becomes too grotesque), so the line became somewhat more jagged. In any event. there is no other place for NY-11 to reasonably go, other than into the NY-08 Pub zone. Finally, the PVI difference, whatever it does, is marginal.  You really don't trust my good faith in drawing these maps do you Train.  

Well, which lines are you even using as "wards"?  Looks like it's certainly not the CB districts, which would be the best option (with the caveat that they are large enough that some splits would still be necessary).  They don't even match up with City Council districts or anything– I'm now quite confused as to what it is you're working off of here.

And NY-11 would be better off taking the rest of Dyker Heights.  Yes, it's marginal, but it so obviously makes much more sense for both districts.

[traininthedistance]

the DRA utility shows ward numbers, so those are useable.  

GIGO.  They are profoundly not useable.  NYC doesn't use wards.  You want to go by the community boards instead:



I honestly have no idea what that numbering scheme in DRA is even referring to.  It's not any current lines, not CBs or City Council or anything like that.

EDIT: Oh, wait: it's based on the 2000-2010 Assembly districts.  I hope you can see why they shouldn't be used.  Explains why they're so awful.

[traininthedistance]

OK. I take your word for it. But I certainly am not going to go through the bother of painstakingly comparing a map in my lap to the DRA map, while clicking a mouse. I suppose for this exercise, one just sticks to clean lines.

Just for kicks, I tried to approximate the neighborhood lines in the area of controversy. 80 basis points more Dem. I will use those lines, and use clean lines between NY-04 and NY-06 in Queens, since neighborhoods 3 and 4 need to be chopped anyway, given the VRA and where NY-06 needs to go. Happy now? No, of course not! You're insatiable.

No, actually, assuming that you're drawing the South Brooklyn Orthodox district (which of course I'd be interested in exploring alternatives too, but that's beyond the scope of this post ), those are very good lines for it. I'd guess I'd probably tweak around Flatbush a tiny bit, it being my hood and all, but that matters very little.

Apologies for being harsh earlier, and assuming malice rather than ignorance.  I guess my defense would be that I did so out of respect for your intelligence and perceptiveness: that you'd have thought twice about simply accepting putative "wards" that were erose as all hell and sliced/diced/etc. neighborhoods. But in any case that tone really was unnecessary and I take it back.  Sorry!

[traininthedistance]

Yeah, I'm quite confident that you could just let the southern Queens district sit somewhere in the mid-40s, entirely within Queens, and it would still be secure for Meeks/kosher for the VRA– use the current Illinois districts as precedent (IIRC a lot of the non-white non-black vote around the fringes of that area is first-gen immigrants anyway, so it might even remain 50%+1 BCVAP).  At some point I will get on making a map that does just that.