Likely 2016 House Pickups for Democrats?

[Emperor Charles V]

Commentary in red.

IA-1. Braley's Folly. A D+5 district; should fall back in line come 2016.

Agreed. Braley had reverse coattails.

IA-3. I think this was a fluke. The Democrat won by 8 in 2012; the Republican won by 10 in 2014. Plenty of wiggle room to claw this one back reasonably.

By the Democrat do you mean Obama, because it elected a Republican (Latham) as congressman in 2012, and over a well-liked Democratic incumbent to boot. I think this is not a fluke and Young holds on. Democrats have a weak bench in Iowa, and plus, Clinton being the likely nominee would actually help Young given that Iowa is her weakness. Plus, Grassley's coattails.

IL-10.  Bob Dold in a resilient f[inks]er; got knocked out by a mere point in 2012 in a redrawn district, only to take it back in 2014 by 4 points. I think the new district is opportune enough to knock him out by a couple of points at minimum in 2016.

Don't underestimate the liberal Republican. Plus, this district has a tradition of ticket-splitting and voting for liberal Republicans for congress (i.e. Mark Kirk won landslide re-elections even in '06 and '08) and Democrats for president. Schneider barely won when Obama got nearly 60%.

NY-24. Am I missing something here? This district has always been close and was close in 2012 (Democrat won by 5, a plurality) but then lost by 20 in 2014 (!?!). A depressing Democratic Party failure and probably indicative of the whole national election if I'm not misreading anything. Surely it'll rebound in 2016.

Remember, don't underestimate liberal Republicans. I think Katko who won by 20 POINTS may I remind you will hold on. Unless Stephanie Miner or Matt Driscoll (the last two mayors of Syracuse) run but neither has expressed (and neither probably will express) any interest for the seat.

NV-4. Won by 8 (50-42) in 2012; the Republican beat the incumbent Democrat (who just so happened to be black - I'm sure that had nothing to do with it) by 3,100 votes in 2014. It was one of the last seats to be called.

If Kihuen is the nominee, this is an easy Dem pickup. However, if he is somehow upset by Lucy "abortion is awesome" Flores, Hardy holds on.

ME-2. RIP MICHAUD. Cry Unless the current incumbent can really make a name for himself at home this year and next, I don't see how this doesn't swing back to us.

I actually think Poliquin holds on unless Cain gets upset in the primary. She is a God-awful candidate who ruined a safe race in 2014. However if Michaud magically decides to run for his old seat, easy Dem pickup.

CO-6. Yeah, a lot of us thought this one would go in 2012, and it was close (47-45), but no cigar. If there is another Libertarian running in 2016, the Democratic growth in the district should be enough to topple Coffman.

If Coffman runs for the Senate, this is a tossup. If not, he probably holds on as he won by a landslide this year despite being severely outspent,

FL-26. Plague-ridden Joe Garcia lost by 4...in 2014. This one comes roaring back in 2016.

Again, liberal Republicans, don't underestimate them. Cubans are Yellow-Dog Republicans for the most part, except when it comes to the presidency where they are more flexible to vote for Democrats that appeal to their community (i.e. Obama). Garica's victory in 2012 was a FLUKE as Rivera has scandal after scandal after scandal. Curbelo likely holds on by a comfortable margin and barring a massive Dem wave of 2006 proportions, has this seat as long as he wants.

NH-1. Enough said.

What??? Again with liberal Republicans. I think Guinta's moderate appeal will keep this district for him (barring a massive wave) for as long as he wants.

We'll see who's right come 2016.

[free my dawg]

...I'm sorry, did you just say Guinta is a liberal Republican? Or a moderate?

Are you on drugs?

[Mr.Phips]

...I'm sorry, did you just say Guinta is a liberal Republican? Or a moderate?

Are you on drugs?

Same with Curbelo.  The guy called Social security a ponzi scheme for god's sake.

[free my dawg]

1. IA-1 - Blum was a fluke. He's also a loan shark who is too conservative for his district. Expect him out.

2. NV-4 - Kihuen is a very strong candidate who puts this in Lean D territory. Flores... not so much, but even with her, this race is a toss-up.

3. TX-23 - Gallego is a very strong candidate in this Hispanic district that most likely suffered from turnout issues. I'm confident.

4. MI-1 - Benishek was fairly underwhelming, just went back on his pledge to serve three terms, and might have a rematch with his 2014 opponent. I think he goes under too.

5. NH-1 - Guinta is not a liberal Republican by any means of the imagination. He used to be one of the most conservative members of the House, and still has a corruption investigation from that $355,000 loan. He's also far too socially conservative for the district (not even making an exception for life of the mother), and is in a district that has an incredibly high turnover rate.

6. FL-23 - If you beat Joe Garcia by such an underwhelming margin, you've got some red flags regardless of your incumbency.

7. NY-24 - Honestly, I think Katko's a strong enough candidate, but the tide might be too strong to overcome.

----- (Rs have the advantage here)

8. IL-10 - See NY-24, but more pronounced

9. IA-3 - Once you look at the actual campaign David Young ran, you realize that he ran a sh*t campaign and most likely rode the perfect storm into Congress. He's probably vulnerable - just depends on who runs against him.

10. AZ-2 - Torn between this and CO-6, but I think this district is a touch more Democratic downballot than its PVI says.

[free my dawg]

...I'm sorry, did you just say Guinta is a liberal Republican? Or a moderate?

Are you on drugs?

Same with Curbelo.  The guy called Social security a ponzi scheme for god's sake.

Guinta is literally to the right of Todd Akin on abortion.

[Maxwell]

He must be under the impression that Dan Innis won the Republican nomination.

And sawx, I agree on Iowa's 3rd District. Young ran a terrible campaign and won because of 2014, it depends on if Democrats capitalize on it, but I think he's out.

[Emperor Charles V]

...I'm sorry, did you just say Guinta is a liberal Republican? Or a moderate?

Are you on drugs?

I meant moderate. When I say "liberal Republican" I refer to a member of the GOP who is to the left of the establishment which Guinta definitely is.

...I'm sorry, did you just say Guinta is a liberal Republican? Or a moderate?

Are you on drugs?

Same with Curbelo.  The guy called Social security a ponzi scheme for god's sake.

Guinta is literally to the right of Todd Akin on abortion.

Hate to break it to you but so am I. That doesn't stop me from being a bleeding heart liberal on marriage, "drug" policy and foreign policy. Most pro-lifers believe abortion should not be politicized anyway so that it's considered "left" wing to support it and "right" to oppose it. We believe it's a civil rights issue that transcends political labels.

[Maxwell]

If I had to bet right now, I see the Dem picking up IL-10, NV-04, NH-01, and NY-19, and IA-01. Certainly not IA-03. NY tends to be friendly to Pub incumbents who stay out of trouble. NY-24 will not be flipping back in all likelihood, not when the incumbent beat an incumbent by 20 points, who was not tarred by scandal, and reasonably competent, if obviously not good at bonding with the voters. I didn't mention Maine-02, because that state is so idiosyncratic, and again, it tends to keep incumbents in who stay out of trouble. See the Pubs having the advantage in PA-08, because they tend to run stronger candidates there than the Dems, and Bucks is trending a bit to the GOP. Sure the Dems could reasonably pick up some more seats, but I would be surprised if they net more than a 10 seat gain. I really don't see the Dems losing any seats however that they now hold (other than maybe the Murphy seat in Florida that he is vacating - call that one a toss-up). This assumes that the current lines remain in place. They may change in AZ and CA, and perhaps FL and VA as well. Even NV is a remote possibility.

I still don't think Polquin survives in a Presidential year.  Look at Jim Longley in 1996(both districts had similar partisanship then).  Longley didn't make any waves, but still lost to Tom Allen by 10 points.

Poliquin turned out to be excellent fundraiser. And it seems Democrats are intent on running Cain again, who is a strong liberal. In ME-01 she would be great candidate , in substantially more conservative ME-02 (LePage won it rather easily over Michaud, who was both a congressman from it and more moderate to boot) - i doubt..

Cain still only lost by five points in an awful year for Democrats.

There was a tea party third party candidate that took over 10% of the vote too.

[Nyvin]

Frank Guinta is definitely NOT a liberal Republican...even calling him a moderate is a very VERY big stretch.    
He favors abolishing the IRS,
He's VERY pro-life
He denies any and all man-made climate change
He supports abolishing the Department of Education
He's voted yes to repeal the ACA every chance he's gotten
He has the fricking Tea Party flag raised at his own fricking fund raisers and campaign events!!!

How in the hell does anyone call Guinta anything but an extreme right wing conservative?

<---- (Lives in Guinta's district btw)

[smoltchanov]

If I had to bet right now, I see the Dem picking up IL-10, NV-04, NH-01, and NY-19, and IA-01. Certainly not IA-03. NY tends to be friendly to Pub incumbents who stay out of trouble. NY-24 will not be flipping back in all likelihood, not when the incumbent beat an incumbent by 20 points, who was not tarred by scandal, and reasonably competent, if obviously not good at bonding with the voters. I didn't mention Maine-02, because that state is so idiosyncratic, and again, it tends to keep incumbents in who stay out of trouble. See the Pubs having the advantage in PA-08, because they tend to run stronger candidates there than the Dems, and Bucks is trending a bit to the GOP. Sure the Dems could reasonably pick up some more seats, but I would be surprised if they net more than a 10 seat gain. I really don't see the Dems losing any seats however that they now hold (other than maybe the Murphy seat in Florida that he is vacating - call that one a toss-up). This assumes that the current lines remain in place. They may change in AZ and CA, and perhaps FL and VA as well. Even NV is a remote possibility.

I still don't think Polquin survives in a Presidential year.  Look at Jim Longley in 1996(both districts had similar partisanship then).  Longley didn't make any waves, but still lost to Tom Allen by 10 points.

Poliquin turned out to be excellent fundraiser. And it seems Democrats are intent on running Cain again, who is a strong liberal. In ME-01 she would be great candidate , in substantially more conservative ME-02 (LePage won it rather easily over Michaud, who was both a congressman from it and more moderate to boot) - i doubt..

Cain still only lost by five points in an awful year for Democrats.

Michaud usually won district by double digits (with 1 or 2 exceptions). Feel the difference. And, as already said, turnout in ME-02 will NOT be too different in 2016

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Frank Guinta is definitely NOT a liberal Republican...even calling him a moderate is a very VERY big stretch.    
He favors abolishing the IRS,
He's VERY pro-life
He denies any and all man-made climate change
He supports abolishing the Department of Education
He's voted yes to repeal the ACA every chance he's gotten
He has the fricking Tea Party flag raised at his own fricking fund raisers and campaign events!!!

How in the hell does anyone call Guinta anything but an extreme right wing conservative?

<---- (Lives in Guinta's district btw)

How does he win his district then? Is Shea-Porter gaffe-prone or something? It's not as if NH-1 is a conservative bastion.

[smoltchanov]

...I'm sorry, did you just say Guinta is a liberal Republican? Or a moderate?

Are you on drugs?

Guinta is very conservative. Dold, Katko, Curbello - moderate by present day Republican standards, but, surely, no liberal. I always say: "if you need REAL liberal Republican - look at Jacob Javits". And i don't see Jacob Javits among Republican candidates now. The same about "conservative Democrats" - i don't see James Eastlands anymore....

[Maxwell]

Frank Guinta is definitely NOT a liberal Republican...even calling him a moderate is a very VERY big stretch.   
He favors abolishing the IRS,
He's VERY pro-life
He denies any and all man-made climate change
He supports abolishing the Department of Education
He's voted yes to repeal the ACA every chance he's gotten
He has the fricking Tea Party flag raised at his own fricking fund raisers and campaign events!!!

How in the hell does anyone call Guinta anything but an extreme right wing conservative?

<---- (Lives in Guinta's district btw)

How does he win his district then? Is Shea-Porter gaffe-prone or something? It's not as if NH-1 is a conservative bastion.

New Hampshire is a hormonal teenager. Shea-Porter was definitely to Kuster's left, and yet NH-1 is the more conservative district of the two.

[Nyvin]

Frank Guinta is definitely NOT a liberal Republican...even calling him a moderate is a very VERY big stretch.    
He favors abolishing the IRS,
He's VERY pro-life
He denies any and all man-made climate change
He supports abolishing the Department of Education
He's voted yes to repeal the ACA every chance he's gotten
He has the fricking Tea Party flag raised at his own fricking fund raisers and campaign events!!!

How in the hell does anyone call Guinta anything but an extreme right wing conservative?

<---- (Lives in Guinta's district btw)

How does he win his district then? Is Shea-Porter gaffe-prone or something? It's not as if NH-1 is a conservative bastion.

Shea-Porter is quite liberal,  much more than Kuster and Shaheen are.   She's actually a very bad fit for a district rated R+1.    Her being so left wing made it easy for all the outside spending groups to target her for being an Obama-rubber stamp vote,  which a lot of the voters who vote in midterms didn't really like.  

Guinta being so conservative and Shea-porter being so liberal is a major reason the district keeps flipping.   It probably would be a good idea to find someone more moderate for either party honestly.

[Emperor Charles V]

Frank Guinta is definitely NOT a liberal Republican...even calling him a moderate is a very VERY big stretch.    
He favors abolishing the IRS,
He's VERY pro-life
He denies any and all man-made climate change
He supports abolishing the Department of Education
He's voted yes to repeal the ACA every chance he's gotten
He has the fricking Tea Party flag raised at his own fricking fund raisers and campaign events!!!

How in the hell does anyone call Guinta anything but an extreme right wing conservative?

<---- (Lives in Guinta's district btw)

I'm in favor of all those things yet I am called "liberal" by many people. I think some of these are just common sense positions.

[Nyvin]

Frank Guinta is definitely NOT a liberal Republican...even calling him a moderate is a very VERY big stretch.    
He favors abolishing the IRS,
He's VERY pro-life
He denies any and all man-made climate change
He supports abolishing the Department of Education
He's voted yes to repeal the ACA every chance he's gotten
He has the fricking Tea Party flag raised at his own fricking fund raisers and campaign events!!!

How in the hell does anyone call Guinta anything but an extreme right wing conservative?

<---- (Lives in Guinta's district btw)

I'm in favor of all those things yet I am called "liberal" by many people. I think some of these are just common sense positions.

Well,  that's fine.   For the rest of us in the real world however...

[Mr. Illini]

I really hope that Bob Dold loses.

If Bost could lose as well that'd be great, but that's more unlikely.

[free my dawg]

Frank Guinta is definitely NOT a liberal Republican...even calling him a moderate is a very VERY big stretch.    
He favors abolishing the IRS,
He's VERY pro-life
He denies any and all man-made climate change
He supports abolishing the Department of Education
He's voted yes to repeal the ACA every chance he's gotten
He has the fricking Tea Party flag raised at his own fricking fund raisers and campaign events!!!

How in the hell does anyone call Guinta anything but an extreme right wing conservative?

<---- (Lives in Guinta's district btw)

How does he win his district then? Is Shea-Porter gaffe-prone or something? It's not as if NH-1 is a conservative bastion.

Because Shea-Porter is pretty liberal too. Innis would have an easier time holding this seat down than Guinta - he seems more moderate, and probably would have beaten Shea-Porter by 2010 margins.

(also living in Guinta's district)

[free my dawg]

Frank Guinta is definitely NOT a liberal Republican...even calling him a moderate is a very VERY big stretch.   
He favors abolishing the IRS,
He's VERY pro-life
He denies any and all man-made climate change
He supports abolishing the Department of Education
He's voted yes to repeal the ACA every chance he's gotten
He has the fricking Tea Party flag raised at his own fricking fund raisers and campaign events!!!

How in the hell does anyone call Guinta anything but an extreme right wing conservative?

<---- (Lives in Guinta's district btw)

How does he win his district then? Is Shea-Porter gaffe-prone or something? It's not as if NH-1 is a conservative bastion.

Because Shea-Porter is pretty liberal too. Innis would have an easier time holding this seat down than Guinta - he seems more moderate, and probably would have beaten Shea-Porter by 2010 margins. Never mind that you're trying to debate two people who have been actually represented by both of them - one of who has been for the past nine years of his life.

Plus he refused to say whether or not he wanted to ban condoms

[Mr.Phips]

If I had to bet right now, I see the Dem picking up IL-10, NV-04, NH-01, and NY-19, and IA-01. Certainly not IA-03. NY tends to be friendly to Pub incumbents who stay out of trouble. NY-24 will not be flipping back in all likelihood, not when the incumbent beat an incumbent by 20 points, who was not tarred by scandal, and reasonably competent, if obviously not good at bonding with the voters.

Katko won by 20 because almost no Dems turned out north of the Catskills.  This won't be the case in 2014.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL18 flips GOP; ME -2; IA 1; CO 6; Pa-8; IL 10; NY 24; IA 3; and NH 01 flips Dem.

[Mr.Phips]

FL18 flips GOP; ME -2; IA 1; CO 6; Pa-8; IL 10; NY 24; IA 3; and NH 01 flips Dem.

Not Nv-04?  I don't see how any Republican holds on there in a presidential year.

[Torie]

FL18 flips GOP; ME -2; IA 1; CO 6; Pa-8; IL 10; NY 24; IA 3; and NH 01 flips Dem.

Not Nv-04?  I don't see how any Republican holds on there in a presidential year.

You might "see" how if the lines of NV-04 are massaged - like taking a little visit up to Elko.

[Maxwell]

Blum actually has higher favorables in his district than Young does in his considerably more Republican one. Tell me again how Young isn't vulnerable.

[Zioneer]

Well, IL-13 won't be a Dem pickup: David Gill, the perennial Democrat running for this seat, is thinking of running as an Independent..