The emerging Democratic majority in Mississippi

[Adam Griffin]

Windjammer and I had some pretty in-depth discussion about Mississippi, based on something he noticed in exit polling: only among the 65+ demographic is MS substantially Republican. Among all other groups, it is either barely Republican or barely Democratic. We did a lot of number crunching to look at the difference between the adult population by race versus the <18 year-old population, with vast contrasts between the two - much more so than almost any other state. Here's an image I made showing the difference between those two aforementioned groups, broken down into regions.



He and I were considering doing a big write-up on this, until he stumbled across this blog post, which frankly covers every key point we were planning to make. In essence, the projections (which are a tad optimistic, but fall within the realm of what we calculated being possible) mean that MS in 2024 will be as close as GA was in 2008. Personally I'm a bit more pessimistic than windjammer about when it will flip - I say 20 years - but with some work, it could potentially happen sooner.

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https://ablogofrivals.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/mississippi-blues-the-emerging-democratic-majority/

[windjammer]

Indeed,
I was debating with Adam about why democrats should invest in MS instead of Texas. Basically, Mitt Romney carried the 65+ 78-22. Of course, old people tend to vote more for the republicans, BUT NOT BY THIS MARGIN. If we substract the 65+ voters, Obama would have only lost MS by 5 point.
The reason is obviously because of segregation. MS is the state where white are the most republican. Obama only carried 10% of the white vote for example.

But this is evolving slowly. The fact that Obama improved his score in MS was obviously because of a higher black turnout, but not only. Whites are slowly voting more and more for  the democrats. Don't forget MS has the highest black population. If MS whites voted at the same margin that GA whites. This would be already a democratic state. And whites are voting more and more for the democrats because people who knew, who studied during segregation are simply dying.

Why I do believe MS is a safer bet for a democrat takeover than TX or GA for example?
       - MS is becoming more and more democrat by itself, ie not because of immigration, but because the black population is growing and the whites are voting more and more for the democrats.
       - MS becoming more and more democrat isn't the result of a growth among the hispanic population. And the hispanic population politically = DANGER for 2 reasons: the first is that hispanic turnout is quite low, the second is that they're going to vote more for the republicans. That's not going to happen with the black population.


I know I'm a bit optimistic (I expect MS to be a battleground state in 2024) and Griffin is more *realistic*, but we do agree on one thing, MS is going to become a democratic state. I personally would prefer that the democratic party starts to invest in MS rather than pouring millions of dollars into a state like Texas that isn't going to become democrat.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm, MS an Atlas red state? Certainly an interesting thought. However, I doubt that MS is going to become a Democratic state by 2024. It should be noted that MS will probably never be a battleground state in the proper meaning of the word, it will either be a Republican state OR a Democratic state. Southern Whites and Blacks are not "Independent", so there are no "swing voters" there. Also, MS seems to be trending Democratic at the presidential level, but take a look at the statewide election results. Democrats usually lose by 20 points, whether it is in 2007 or 2014. I think the fact that Obama did so "well" in MS was due to REALLY, REALLY high Black turnout.
However, if MS ever became a Democratic state, Democrats could make up for the potential loss of IA.

Aren't a few present day battlegrounds characterized by turnout battles between roughly even numbers of people who strongly disagree with each other?  Virginia seems the most obvious example and Florida mostly fits that description as well.

[IceSpear]

It will be interesting to see what happens in MS without Obama on the ballot.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

What is with the huge racial age gap  ? I know Blacks overall in the US have a slightly higher birth rate than whites. But in MS, the gap is pretty big.

[DC Al Fine]

Exactly how much more Democrat are younger whites voting?

[windjammer]

IndyRep: of course higher black turnout played a big role, Griffin had the numbers that show that Obama improved his score among the white population.
           I do disagree with you. When Alabama and some other states became totally republican, there was a short period of competitive elections between republicans and democrats.


DC: 20% of the white young voted for Obama. Much more than the 65+ (likely 2%) and the white vote overall (10%).

[Ebsy]

People forget that in 2006 and 2008, Democrats made large gains in Southern House seats. Of course they were all wiped out in 2010 and are unlikely to return, but from the 1990s to the late 2000s, things were still moderately competitive in many southern states due to the Silents and the Greatest Generation still being alive and voting Democratic.

[Adam Griffin]

Exactly how much more Democrat are younger whites voting?

Some rough and dirty calculations I just did suggest that 18-30 year-old whites were approximately 27-30% Obama in 2012. For what it's worth, that's pretty close to how the same age group of whites are voting in Georgia right now.

[Adam Griffin]

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[windjammer]

BLUE MISSISSIPPI IS BECOMING RED MISSISSIPPI

[Skill and Chance]

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Interesting, so it could trend to the center even with Obama being a local max for Democrats with black voters.

[pbrower2a]

Going back in time:


Last Democratic nominee to win the state/district

Obama 2012 dark red
Obama 2008 medium red
Clinton 1996 dark green
Clinton 1992 pale green
Carter  1976 yellow
Johnson 1964 medium blue

Last Republican nominee to win the state

Romney 2012 -- blue
Bush 2004 -- gray
Bush 2000 -- light green
Bush 1988 -- white
Reagan 1984 -- pink
Nixon 1972 -- medium red
NEVER -- deep red

[Ebsy]

Can someone explain why Jim Hood is so popular?

[windjammer]

My prediction for the MS 2024 election:
Whites: 56% (according to the census: they lost 2.5 points between 2000 and 2010, so a drop of 3 points seems realistic) 16% (yes 20% seems to be a bit optimistic, but who knows?)

Blacks: 38% (they get 0.8 point every 10 years) 90%

Others: 6% (A bit more optimistic than Griffin on that): 60%

So, score of the democratic candidate: 46.76
The other candidates except the democrat and the republican should get 1%

So final result: 52.24-46.76 for the republican

Do I expect MS to be a blue state in 2024? No
Do I expect MS to be relatively competitive? Yes

With the blue dogish northern Mississippi (yes blue dogs are still alive locally in Northern Mississippi), in 2024 with an open senate seat, they should be able to compete with a strong candidate like Jim Hood, or more likely Brandon Presley.

[The Free North]

It will be interesting to see what happens in MS without Obama on the ballot.

Pretty much this. The evidence complied in the OP is strong but if black turnout plummets....MS is not going to change for quite some time.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Indeed,
I was debating with Adam about why democrats should invest in MS instead of Texas.

I'm guessing the reason they won't is the same reason they won't invest in other small states.  They don't bring much to the table in terms of electoral college votes.

[bobloblaw]

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Why would whites vote MORE Dem??? When the trend is the other way. If whites in MS fear losing power, they will vote GOP at close to 90% not 80%.

Also in state races and for US Senate the GOP has gotten up to 35% of the black vote.

[smoltchanov]

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Why would whites vote MORE Dem??? When the trend is the other way. If whites in MS fear losing power, they will vote GOP at close to 90% not 80%.

Also in state races and for US Senate the GOP has gotten up to 35% of the black vote.

Even likeable Thad Cochran last year didn't get 35%. And Republicans maxed out with white vote. Very slowly, but more and more whites will adapt to the idea that elected Black (most likely)  Democrat as Senator (or Governor, for that matter) is far from being "apocalypsis". They already adapted to large number of Blacks not only voting, but sitting in Legislature... It will take considerable time (that's why i think about 2040-45), but it WILL happen.. If Thomas Pickens Brady would be resurrected now, only 40 years after death - he would, probably, be so amazed about what happened in his beloved Mississippi, that he wouldn't have any non-profane words for it...))))

[bobloblaw]

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Why would whites vote MORE Dem??? When the trend is the other way. If whites in MS fear losing power, they will vote GOP at close to 90% not 80%.

Also in state races and for US Senate the GOP has gotten up to 35% of the black vote.

Even likeable Thad Cochran last year didn't get 35%. And Republicans maxed out with white vote. Very slowly, but more and more whites will adapt to the idea that elected Black (most likely)  Democrat as Senator (or Governor, for that matter) is far from being "apocalypsis". They already adapted to large number of Blacks not only voting, but sitting in Legislature... It will take considerable time (that's why i think about 2040-45), but it WILL happen.. If Thomas Pickens Brady would be resurrected now, only 40 years after death - he would, probably, be so amazed about what happened in his beloved Mississippi, that he wouldn't have any non-profane words for it...))))

Trent Lott use to get 35%. But the GOP doesnt need that much to win every election. 15-20% will do.

[bobloblaw]

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Why would whites vote MORE Dem??? When the trend is the other way. If whites in MS fear losing power, they will vote GOP at close to 90% not 80%.

Also in state races and for US Senate the GOP has gotten up to 35% of the black vote.

Even likeable Thad Cochran last year didn't get 35%. And Republicans maxed out with white vote. Very slowly, but more and more whites will adapt to the idea that elected Black (most likely)  Democrat as Senator (or Governor, for that matter) is far from being "apocalypsis". They already adapted to large number of Blacks not only voting, but sitting in Legislature... It will take considerable time (that's why i think about 2040-45), but it WILL happen.. If Thomas Pickens Brady would be resurrected now, only 40 years after death - he would, probably, be so amazed about what happened in his beloved Mississippi, that he wouldn't have any non-profane words for it...))))

Trent Lott use to get 35%. But the GOP doesnt need that much to win every election. 15-20% will do.

Source?

I guess if you dont like the stat you can demand the source. But people quote numbers here all the time and no one asks for a source. So your demand is arbitrary and capricious. Lott use to get 35% of the black vote and if you dont like it tough

[smoltchanov]

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Why would whites vote MORE Dem??? When the trend is the other way. If whites in MS fear losing power, they will vote GOP at close to 90% not 80%.

Also in state races and for US Senate the GOP has gotten up to 35% of the black vote.

Even likeable Thad Cochran last year didn't get 35%. And Republicans maxed out with white vote. Very slowly, but more and more whites will adapt to the idea that elected Black (most likely)  Democrat as Senator (or Governor, for that matter) is far from being "apocalypsis". They already adapted to large number of Blacks not only voting, but sitting in Legislature... It will take considerable time (that's why i think about 2040-45), but it WILL happen.. If Thomas Pickens Brady would be resurrected now, only 40 years after death - he would, probably, be so amazed about what happened in his beloved Mississippi, that he wouldn't have any non-profane words for it...))))

Trent Lott use to get 35%. But the GOP doesnt need that much to win every election. 15-20% will do.

Source?

I guess if you dont like the stat you can demand the source. But people quote numbers here all the time and no one asks for a source. So your demand is arbitrary and capricious. Lott use to get 35% of the black vote and if you dont like it tough

So - no sources? Then it's a lie. At least - a hearsay. It's very simple.

[Ebsy]

I guess if you dont like the stat you can demand the source. But people quote numbers here all the time and no one asks for a source. So your demand is arbitrary and capricious. Lott use to get 35% of the black vote and if you dont like it tough

It's honestly hard for me to believe that someone could be this mindbogglingly stupid.

[smoltchanov]

I guess if you dont like the stat you can demand the source. But people quote numbers here all the time and no one asks for a source. So your demand is arbitrary and capricious. Lott use to get 35% of the black vote and if you dont like it tough

It's honestly hard for me to believe that someone could be this mindbogglingly stupid.

Idiots aren't a big rarity in the world. Sometimes i even think that they are a majority...

[Mechaman]

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Why would whites vote MORE Dem??? When the trend is the other way. If whites in MS fear losing power, they will vote GOP at close to 90% not 80%.

Also in state races and for US Senate the GOP has gotten up to 35% of the black vote.

Even likeable Thad Cochran last year didn't get 35%. And Republicans maxed out with white vote. Very slowly, but more and more whites will adapt to the idea that elected Black (most likely)  Democrat as Senator (or Governor, for that matter) is far from being "apocalypsis". They already adapted to large number of Blacks not only voting, but sitting in Legislature... It will take considerable time (that's why i think about 2040-45), but it WILL happen.. If Thomas Pickens Brady would be resurrected now, only 40 years after death - he would, probably, be so amazed about what happened in his beloved Mississippi, that he wouldn't have any non-profane words for it...))))

Trent Lott use to get 35%. But the GOP doesnt need that much to win every election. 15-20% will do.

Source?

I guess if you dont like the stat you can demand the source. But people quote numbers here all the time and no one asks for a source. So your demand is arbitrary and capricious. Lott use to get 35% of the black vote and if you dont like it tough

That's usually because 9 times out of 10 said posters put it right there with their posts.  Take a look at AdamGriffin and Windjammers posts and then compare it to your hastily constructed claim.  Even if a source is not there it is patently obvious to everyone here that they had to have volumes of evidence to construct the graphs, line charts, and pie charts showing a Democratic trend.  Now, does that mean it is objective fact that Mississippi will become a D state in a few decades?  As someone who has researched the political history of this country I can only respond with "not enough evidence to convict".  They have not really proved that claim, given that we would have to wait several decades to see it come true.  However, they have at least given weight to their hypotheses with all this data, something that you so far have not.

All you have done so far is just tout a random "fact" without any backing evidence to your claim.  Now, I understand that sourcing is not necessary for a large number of facts, like "the sky is blue" or "the rent is too damn high", facts that really do not need any proving.  What isn't a near universally accepted fact is a couple of white Republican Mississippi lawmakers getting 35% of the black vote in elections.  THAT NEEDS A SOURCE.

I know that MLA formatting in the high school was a bitch.  Absolutely fucking nobody enjoys that shit.  As true as that may be, it exists for a reason on school research papers and why those teachers encouraged you when you were younger to use citations in your papers and in your presentations.  Just because other posters are not being challenged on their statistics does not excuse your refusal to back yours up.  If you can't back up your claims here when they are challenged, then you have no fuckin business talking politics on here.