I see the GOP being the dominant Party in the US for decades to come
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  I see the GOP being the dominant Party in the US for decades to come
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Author Topic: I see the GOP being the dominant Party in the US for decades to come  (Read 4916 times)
aktheden
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« on: April 25, 2015, 07:03:11 PM »

When I see posts from liberals saying the GOP will die off when the old folks do, I laugh(and I'm very liberal)...right now, the only branch controlled by the Democratic party is the executive; the GOP control everything else..they also control 31 Governorships and 30 state legislatures....and thanks to gerrymandering, that control will not be relinqushed anytime soon..and as for demographics, White support for Democrats is collapsing at an astonishing rate..so much so that we could see a situation whereby the only white people who vote democratic are gay people and Jewish people...because of all this, I predict a republican gain in the house and senate in 2016
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #1 on: April 25, 2015, 07:04:48 PM »

jao
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #2 on: April 25, 2015, 07:22:52 PM »

Blasphemy!  This is not a t_host1 worthy post.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #3 on: April 25, 2015, 07:29:53 PM »

Haven't you heard? The Jews are leaving the Democratic Party in droves over Obama's Israeli policies. Soon we won't even have them. Sad(((((((((
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: April 25, 2015, 07:45:43 PM »

I lost brain cells reading this post.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2015, 07:47:36 PM »



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The Other Castro
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« Reply #6 on: April 25, 2015, 07:50:44 PM »

When making an argument, it's best to use evidence based on fact and not the comment section of a yahoo news article.
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Beet
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« Reply #7 on: April 25, 2015, 07:54:00 PM »

This was posted in the good post gallery.
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #8 on: April 25, 2015, 07:57:46 PM »
« Edited: April 25, 2015, 07:59:21 PM by CountryClassSF »

Democrat Party's strategic obsession with racial demagoguery  and 'demographics' have caused a white exodus from the party.  They've been able to stem this enough to cobble together a coalition in presidential years by using the homosexual issue and making things up about the GOP about birth control, et al.

I do think that many Democrats do tend to be  overconfident - the midterm losses they suffered in the Obama years were nothing short of historic.  I think it was something like 900 state legislative seats. The difference is this time, the party has hopefully learned that we have a conservative for a candidate to bring a coalition of our own to the polls. Someone who is actually there to fight hard and win as opposed to a hard-left candidate like Romney or McCain.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #9 on: April 25, 2015, 08:04:42 PM »

Democrat Party's strategic obsession with racial demagoguery  and 'demographics' have caused a white exodus from the party.  They've been able to stem this enough to cobble together a coalition in presidential years by using the homosexual issue and making things up about the GOP about birth control, et al.

I do think that many Democrats do tend to be  overconfident - the midterm losses they suffered in the Obama years were nothing short of historic.  I think it was something like 900 state legislative seats. The difference is this time, the party has hopefully learned that we have a conservative for a candidate to bring a coalition of our own to the polls. Someone who is actually there to fight hard and win as opposed to a hard-left candidate like Romney or McCain.

I'll give you your second paragraph if you own up to and admit that Republicans can only win in a "historic" fashion anymore when hardly anyone shows up to vote.
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #10 on: April 25, 2015, 08:09:05 PM »

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See though? A Republican win always has to have an asterisk behind it.  It can never be acknowledged that maybe the Democrats lost the argument for that cycle. 
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #11 on: April 25, 2015, 08:10:46 PM »

The pendulum swings both ways.  While the GOP may be gaining ground now, the pendulum will swing back to the Democrats.  It is certainly possible, if not likely, that we will have a Republican president in 2017, after a Republican has been in there for 4-8 years we'll see the pendulum start swinging back around the 6th year midterms, if not the 2nd year midterms.  In the last 40 years we have only had the pendulum stay on one side of the aisle longer than 8 years one time and that was 1981-1993 when Reagan and Bush were in office.  That's another part of the healthy checks and balances this country enjoys.  I reject the sentiment that the Democrats will be dominant for decades to come, but I also reject the sentiment that the Republicans will be dominant for decades to come.  Either party will only be riding high for at most one decade at a time and that's pushing it.
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #12 on: April 25, 2015, 08:16:32 PM »

The pendulum swings both ways.  While the GOP may be gaining ground now, the pendulum will swing back to the Democrats.  It is certainly possible, if not likely, that we will have a Republican president in 2017, after a Republican has been in there for 4-8 years we'll see the pendulum start swinging back around the 6th year midterms, if not the 2nd year midterms.  In the last 40 years we have only had the pendulum stay on one side of the aisle longer than 8 years one time and that was 1981-1993 when Reagan and Bush were in office.  That's another part of the healthy checks and balances this country enjoys.  I reject the sentiment that the Democrats will be dominant for decades to come, but I also reject the sentiment that the Republicans will be dominant for decades to come.  Either party will only be riding high for at most one decade at a time and that's pushing it.

No doubt that that is all true.  But the difference in the Obama years is that the midterms didn't just have the usual handful of seats flip, they were massive wave elections -- but Republicans don't get "credit" for those. There's always a "reason" when Republicans win. Oh low turnout. Oh bad campaigns. When Democrats win, the media spends months talking about what the GOP did wrong and what demographic groups they did badly in. Zero talk about how white folks across the board, young, middle aged, and old have swung to GOP. None.

It's not so much about how both sides spin, but it's interesting how the Republicans get no credit for anything.
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aktheden
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« Reply #13 on: April 25, 2015, 08:23:32 PM »

The pendulum swings both ways.  While the GOP may be gaining ground now, the pendulum will swing back to the Democrats.  It is certainly possible, if not likely, that we will have a Republican president in 2017, after a Republican has been in there for 4-8 years we'll see the pendulum start swinging back around the 6th year midterms, if not the 2nd year midterms.  In the last 40 years we have only had the pendulum stay on one side of the aisle longer than 8 years one time and that was 1981-1993 when Reagan and Bush were in office.  That's another part of the healthy checks and balances this country enjoys.  I reject the sentiment that the Democrats will be dominant for decades to come, but I also reject the sentiment that the Republicans will be dominant for decades to come.  Either party will only be riding high for at most one decade at a time and that's pushing it.
The difference is that whites have permanently fled the Democratic Party
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #14 on: April 25, 2015, 09:11:31 PM »

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See though? A Republican win always has to have an asterisk behind it.  It can never be acknowledged that maybe the Democrats lost the argument for that cycle.  

...You don't think it deserves an asterisk? You guys only win when an electorate shows up to vote that completely doesn't resemble the actual country.

The pendulum swings both ways.  While the GOP may be gaining ground now, the pendulum will swing back to the Democrats.  It is certainly possible, if not likely, that we will have a Republican president in 2017, after a Republican has been in there for 4-8 years we'll see the pendulum start swinging back around the 6th year midterms, if not the 2nd year midterms.  In the last 40 years we have only had the pendulum stay on one side of the aisle longer than 8 years one time and that was 1981-1993 when Reagan and Bush were in office.  That's another part of the healthy checks and balances this country enjoys.  I reject the sentiment that the Democrats will be dominant for decades to come, but I also reject the sentiment that the Republicans will be dominant for decades to come.  Either party will only be riding high for at most one decade at a time and that's pushing it.
The difference is that whites have permanently fled the Democratic Party

>"have permanently fled"
>gets 40% of their votes

Let's put it this way: between 2004-2012, Democrats' share of the white vote went from 41% to 39%. With 94,000,000 white voters in 2012, Democrats have lost 1,872,000 white voters over the past eight years.

Over that same time period, Republicans' share of the Latino vote went from 42% to 22%. With 13,000,000 Latino voters in 2012, Republicans have lost 2,600,000 Latino voters over the past eight years. They've also lost 620,000 Asian voters over the same time period.

So:

Democrats: -1,872,000 whites
Republicans: -3,220,000 non-whites


Who's fleeing from where? Thanks for your concerns, though.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #15 on: April 25, 2015, 09:14:26 PM »


The difference is that whites have permanently fled the Democratic Party
It's odd then that this straight white churchgoer has been considering joining the Democrats. The main reason I haven't is that I think I can better obtain what I want right now by supporting sane Republicans against their crazy cousins.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #16 on: April 25, 2015, 10:05:39 PM »

The GOP is alive and well thanks in part to there being two different American electorates. The one that shows up in years not divisible by four is very, very Republican.

Democrats would be foolish to underestimate this. Republicans can, do, and will continue to win elections even if they do get wiped out on the Presidential race, and their incredible power at the state and local level blunts much of the impact of the Democratic hold on the White House. That, too, can change, especially if the next big economic downturn happens on the watch of a President Clinton.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #17 on: April 25, 2015, 11:30:21 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2015, 12:19:58 AM by Jöë Rëpüblïc »

When I see posts from liberals saying the GOP will die off when the old folks do, I laugh(and I'm very liberal)...right now, the only branch controlled by the Democratic party is the executive; the GOP control everything else..they also control 31 Governorships and 30 state legislatures....and thanks to gerrymandering, that control will not be relinqushed anytime soon..and as for demographics, White support for Democrats is collapsing at an astonishing rate..so much so that we could see a situation whereby the only white people who vote democratic are gay people and Jewish people...because of all this, I predict a republican gain in the house and senate in 2016

I appreciate you must be very, very concerned about this.  It's a concerning state of affairs!  How deeply concerning!!
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aktheden
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« Reply #18 on: April 26, 2015, 12:22:19 AM »

Who's fleeing from where? Thanks for your concerns, though.
[/quote]
Whites vote way more consistently than Hispanics....in fact, Hispanics are the most unreliable voting block in the USA.
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badgate
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« Reply #19 on: April 26, 2015, 01:01:09 AM »

This was very brave of you to post, aktheden.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #20 on: April 26, 2015, 02:02:40 AM »

     I see lots of things happening and both parties oscillating in share of power. Predicting dominance or demise for either the Democrats or the Republicans is an ever popular and ever futile exercise.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #21 on: April 26, 2015, 06:47:51 AM »

The difference is that whites have permanently fled the Democratic Party

Except in New York. And Washington. And New England. And most of the Midwest. And Eastern Pennsylvania. And Urban Areas.

And well, anywhere that isn't the rural Deep South/Appalachia/Plains.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #22 on: April 26, 2015, 08:50:49 AM »

There is pretty much nowhere left for Republicans to permanently gain white voters. They aren't going to ever win more than 60% of the white vote in a presidential election barring an unusual landslide.
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ingemann
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« Reply #23 on: April 26, 2015, 08:59:32 AM »

People talking about a permanent majority always end up looking like morons a few years down the road.

As for the whole White vote, Whiteness have been expanded to new groups time after time in American history, why would people with a White parent and a Hispanic or Asian one continue identifying as minority, especially if they look White? Just look at Ted Cruz.
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #24 on: April 26, 2015, 10:37:11 AM »

     I see lots of things happening and both parties oscillating in share of power. Predicting dominance or demise for either the Democrats or the Republicans is an ever popular and ever futile exercise.

The other side does it way more than we do...
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