I see the GOP being the dominant Party in the US for decades to come
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2024, 11:19:04 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  U.S. General Discussion (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Chancellor Tanterterg)
  I see the GOP being the dominant Party in the US for decades to come
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]
Author Topic: I see the GOP being the dominant Party in the US for decades to come  (Read 4965 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,859
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: April 27, 2015, 10:36:54 AM »

Republican wins in 2010 and 2014 were legitimate, obviously. But you can't seriously argue they have a bigger mandate when Democrats comfortably won the last two elections that had WAY higher turnout. Higher turnout, bigger mandate, plain and simple. Call me when the "dominant" GOP comfortably wins a high turnout presidential election and we'll talk.

The point. The Presidential elections of 1980 and 1984 were stronger evidence of a Republican party gaining dominance in the political scene.

The telling refutation of the idea that the GOP is on the verge of dominance are

(1) abysmal approvals of Republican-dominated state legislatures and Congress
(2) Barack Obama winning two Presidential elections decisively
(3) positive approval of a lame-duck President

The voters who voted in 2006, 2008, and 2012 but stayed home in 2010 and 2014 may be slow to get the lesson -- but if they ever do, the GOP will need to change its agenda

People may be disappointed with President Obama, but not for what he sought -- they still want it. The GOP has little to offer.

Logged
YaBoyNY
NYMillennial
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,469
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: April 27, 2015, 10:39:08 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

You're correct-- The 59-60% figure was among white voters as a whole. NBC's exit poll had White 18-29ers at 51% Romney, 44% Obama

http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#.VT5WU63BzGc

That's what I figured. 18-29 year old white males voting for Romney at 53 or 54% I can see. But at the same level as nationwide whites as a whole? I just can't see that happening; as of right now, of course. The post-Millennial, after 2000 generation may very well be more Republican, and we could see a situation in 50 years where voters 65+ (the ones who turned 18 between 2000 and 2018) are Democratic leaning due to their voting habits when younger, while young voters at that point lean Republican.
Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,356
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: April 27, 2015, 12:36:40 PM »
« Edited: April 27, 2015, 12:38:39 PM by King »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

You're correct-- The 59-60% figure was among white voters as a whole. NBC's exit poll had White 18-29ers at 51% Romney, 44% Obama

http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#.VT5WU63BzGc


That's not exactly what I was saying. 60% was just an estimate. Maybe it was more 58%.

18-29 whites voted 54-43 for Romney. 18-29 white men probably voted 58-39 for Romney.

You can't really cede any more white men from the Democrats. The problem has always been that young white males are declining not that were changing in their voting patterns. Most people just vote as their parents did. There are less white parents than ever before.
Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,356
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: April 27, 2015, 12:40:22 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

You're correct-- The 59-60% figure was among white voters as a whole. NBC's exit poll had White 18-29ers at 51% Romney, 44% Obama

http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#.VT5WU63BzGc

That's what I figured. 18-29 year old white males voting for Romney at 53 or 54% I can see. But at the same level as nationwide whites as a whole? I just can't see that happening; as of right now, of course. The post-Millennial, after 2000 generation may very well be more Republican, and we could see a situation in 50 years where voters 65+ (the ones who turned 18 between 2000 and 2018) are Democratic leaning due to their voting habits when younger, while young voters at that point lean Republican.

Studies have generally shown that ideology is steady throughout ones lifetime. The conservative baby boomers of today voted for Reagan when they were young.

Logged
YaBoyNY
NYMillennial
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,469
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: April 27, 2015, 01:37:52 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

You're correct-- The 59-60% figure was among white voters as a whole. NBC's exit poll had White 18-29ers at 51% Romney, 44% Obama

http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#.VT5WU63BzGc

That's what I figured. 18-29 year old white males voting for Romney at 53 or 54% I can see. But at the same level as nationwide whites as a whole? I just can't see that happening; as of right now, of course. The post-Millennial, after 2000 generation may very well be more Republican, and we could see a situation in 50 years where voters 65+ (the ones who turned 18 between 2000 and 2018) are Democratic leaning due to their voting habits when younger, while young voters at that point lean Republican.

Studies have generally shown that ideology is steady throughout ones lifetime. The conservative baby boomers of today voted for Reagan when they were young.



That's what I figured.

I have no actual belief that the Democrats are always going to be the party of younger voters and vice versa with Republicans. When Millennials are in their 60's and 70's, the 65+ vote demographic will probably be Democratic as it was in the past.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: April 28, 2015, 07:51:26 PM »

Republican wins in 2010 and 2014 were legitimate, obviously. But you can't seriously argue they have a bigger mandate when Democrats comfortably won the last two elections that had WAY higher turnout. Higher turnout, bigger mandate, plain and simple. Call me when the "dominant" GOP comfortably wins a high turnout presidential election and we'll talk.

How do you know illegal aliens didn't vote in both? They sued to stop voter ID, how do we know they didn't vote?

trollol

Nothing would stop this mythical voting fraud from occuring in midterms either by the way. And even if it did occur, it wouldn't have been nearly enough to change the results.
Logged
CountryClassSF
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,530


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: April 28, 2015, 07:53:58 PM »

One voter disenfranchised by one non-citizen voter = too many.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: April 28, 2015, 08:08:27 PM »

One voter disenfranchised by one non-citizen voter = too many.
The irony.
Logged
All Along The Watchtower
Progressive Realist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,500
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: April 28, 2015, 10:02:02 PM »

One voter disenfranchised by one non-citizen voter =too many.

And 100,000 voters* disenfranchised by a restrictive law = not enough.

Republican logic!


*Especially if they are statistically much more likely to favor Democrats. A diabolically brilliant solution to the GOP's pathetic performance with those demographics!

Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.041 seconds with 12 queries.