I see the GOP being the dominant Party in the US for decades to come (user search)
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  I see the GOP being the dominant Party in the US for decades to come (search mode)
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Author Topic: I see the GOP being the dominant Party in the US for decades to come  (Read 4978 times)
King
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« on: April 26, 2015, 10:46:28 AM »

     I see lots of things happening and both parties oscillating in share of power. Predicting dominance or demise for either the Democrats or the Republicans is an ever popular and ever futile exercise.

The other side does it way more than we do...

Does what?  There was no action being described in that post
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King
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« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2015, 08:56:16 PM »

I'm pretty sure 60% of 18-29 year old white males voted for Romney. He won 54% of 18-29 year old whites and males are more conservative the females.

These fun anecdotes of young white men flocking to the GOP don't really mean anything as young white men were already in the GOP. Reaganfan and CountryClassSF didn't vote for Obama either time and he won anyway. The problem for the GOP is that white men are declining as a percentage of the population every year.
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King
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« Reply #2 on: April 27, 2015, 12:36:40 PM »
« Edited: April 27, 2015, 12:38:39 PM by King »

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You're correct-- The 59-60% figure was among white voters as a whole. NBC's exit poll had White 18-29ers at 51% Romney, 44% Obama

http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#.VT5WU63BzGc


That's not exactly what I was saying. 60% was just an estimate. Maybe it was more 58%.

18-29 whites voted 54-43 for Romney. 18-29 white men probably voted 58-39 for Romney.

You can't really cede any more white men from the Democrats. The problem has always been that young white males are declining not that were changing in their voting patterns. Most people just vote as their parents did. There are less white parents than ever before.
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King
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« Reply #3 on: April 27, 2015, 12:40:22 PM »

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You're correct-- The 59-60% figure was among white voters as a whole. NBC's exit poll had White 18-29ers at 51% Romney, 44% Obama

http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#.VT5WU63BzGc

That's what I figured. 18-29 year old white males voting for Romney at 53 or 54% I can see. But at the same level as nationwide whites as a whole? I just can't see that happening; as of right now, of course. The post-Millennial, after 2000 generation may very well be more Republican, and we could see a situation in 50 years where voters 65+ (the ones who turned 18 between 2000 and 2018) are Democratic leaning due to their voting habits when younger, while young voters at that point lean Republican.

Studies have generally shown that ideology is steady throughout ones lifetime. The conservative baby boomers of today voted for Reagan when they were young.

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