Are almost all states just going to eventually vote Democratic at some point?
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  Are almost all states just going to eventually vote Democratic at some point?
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Author Topic: Are almost all states just going to eventually vote Democratic at some point?  (Read 2868 times)
Simfan34
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« on: April 26, 2015, 04:47:26 PM »

Because reading this forum it seems like this is what you all think the map will look like in 2040:



...
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2015, 04:52:57 PM »

Of course every state will vote Democratic at least once in this century, and vice versa as well.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2015, 04:55:21 PM »

No, of course not.  But if you assume Democrats get their 2012 percentages of each demographic that (minus ND, MT, AR, KY and WV) is basically what would happen in a ~55% white 2040 electorate.  The point is that something has to give.  In 2040, Republicans need to either win ~75% of the white vote or break even with Hispanics and Asians to prevail.  The nature of the 2 party system means that they will simply adjust their platform until one of those happens.  
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2015, 04:57:53 PM »

Of course every state will vote Democratic at least once in this century, and vice versa as well.

How so?

Because every state was won by both parties at least once during the 20th century. The present order will die, though I have no idea what would take it's place.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2015, 05:03:27 PM »

Of course every state will vote Democratic at least once in this century, and vice versa as well.

How so?

Well, the 20th century involved 3 near 60/40 D landslides and 4 near 60/40 R landslides where they won about 40 states with somewhat different coalitions.  Just because 2000-2012 has been close doesn't mean the whole century will be.
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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2015, 05:04:56 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2015, 05:07:19 PM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »

Of course every state will vote Democratic at least once in this century, and vice versa as well.

1964 ended two streaks of over a century, one for each party. Vermont hadn't voted Democratic since it was founded in 1828 or the 1830s or whatever, and Georgia hadn't voted Republican since it was founded in 1858.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2015, 05:13:45 PM »

Of course every state will vote Democratic at least once in this century, and vice versa as well.

How so?

Because every state was won by both parties at least once during the 20th century. The present order will die, though I have no idea what would take it's place.

Well it's not certain for every single state.  Vermont did have a 104 year R streak from 1856-1960.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #7 on: April 26, 2015, 09:32:51 PM »

Because reading this forum it seems like this is what you all think the map will look like in 2040:



...

If you believe libtard reasoning, sure. The left hates democracy and wants a one party state in order to implement their version of utopia.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #8 on: April 26, 2015, 09:37:13 PM »

Calling liberals libtards must make you feel very powerful.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #9 on: April 26, 2015, 09:37:48 PM »

What the left doesnt get is that changing demographics dont change forever. The future cannot be predicted.

So many things could happen:

Mexico already has a birthrate right at replacement and it is still falling. China as well.
There might be net migration from the US to Mexico by 2050.
A USA that is 50% white or less could see the GOP getting 75-80% of the white vote.
A majority hispanic population in CA, AZ, NM might want to rejoin Mexico.
Intermarriage will produce a nation of whites with hispanic last names or darker people with anglo last names.

The left wing dream of a one party left wing state will not emerge.
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ChainsawJedis
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« Reply #10 on: April 27, 2015, 01:13:27 PM »

A new party system will likely replace this one sometime in the 21st century. We are not moving towards a one party system.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #11 on: April 27, 2015, 02:27:02 PM »

If you were to tell someone during WWII that Mississippi would become a solid Republican state they would not believe you.  That would be like telling people today that DC will elect a Republican Mayor.  Things are going to change.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #12 on: April 27, 2015, 03:01:31 PM »

Maybe under the right circumstances certain states in the South may go atlas red at some point, but it probably won't be until I'm in my golden years that you could count on Louisiana or Mississippi to go Democratic.
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5280
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« Reply #13 on: April 27, 2015, 04:14:35 PM »

One party rule is the goal for the Democrat party, they want to control everybody and tell people how to think in their perfect utopia.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #14 on: April 27, 2015, 06:27:18 PM »

Of course every state will vote Democratic at least once in this century, and vice versa as well.

1964 ended two streaks of over a century, one for each party. Vermont hadn't voted Democratic since it was founded in 1828 or the 1830s or whatever, and Georgia hadn't voted Republican since it was founded in 1858.

I'm pretty sure Georgia has been a state longer than that.
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #15 on: April 27, 2015, 06:39:05 PM »

Of course every state will vote Democratic at least once in this century, and vice versa as well.

1964 ended two streaks of over a century, one for each party. Vermont hadn't voted Democratic since it was founded in 1828 or the 1830s or whatever, and Georgia hadn't voted Republican since it was founded in 1858.

I'm pretty sure Georgia has been a state longer than that.

He means "Georgia hadn't voted Republican since the Republican party was founded," not since Georgia was founded.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #16 on: April 27, 2015, 06:54:38 PM »

For the two states most likely to have a >100 year streak going forward, I would lean toward Alabama and Maryland.  On the surface, Utah and Hawaii look like the best bets, but they both have idiosyncratic weaknesses (anti-Mormon gaffe/landslide reelection of incumbent R).  Rhode Island should eventually give out due to the elderly Catholic block there, but that might not happen until after 2050.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #17 on: April 27, 2015, 08:08:58 PM »

One party rule is the goal for the Democrat party, they want to control everybody and tell people how to think in their perfect utopia.

When these idiots won't refer to our party by its correct name, it's a wonder why we Democrats don't start calling them the Repugnant party.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #18 on: April 27, 2015, 08:58:24 PM »

Maybe under the right circumstances certain states in the South may go atlas red at some point, but it probably won't be until I'm in my golden years that you could count on Louisiana or Mississippi to go Democratic.

I'm sure there were people saying that about certain states in the '40s who looked like pretty big idiots by the '70s...
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ChainsawJedis
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« Reply #19 on: April 27, 2015, 09:47:15 PM »

One party rule is the goal for the Democrat party, they want to control everybody and tell people how to think in their perfect utopia.

Cut the crap, the GOP would love to eliminate the democrats and have a one party system too.
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Goldwater
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« Reply #20 on: April 28, 2015, 12:11:42 PM »

Because reading this forum it seems like this is what you all think the map will look like in 2040:



...

This map is far too generous to the Republicans. You need to flip Alaska, Louisiana, South Dakota, and NE-2.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #21 on: April 28, 2015, 12:48:46 PM »

Actually, Alaska voting Democratic probably wouldn't be the oddest thing to happen electorally ovre the next century.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #22 on: April 28, 2015, 01:01:15 PM »

A majority hispanic population in CA, AZ, NM might want to rejoin Mexico.

lmbo
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Ebsy
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« Reply #23 on: April 28, 2015, 01:11:50 PM »

A majority hispanic population in CA, AZ, NM might want to rejoin Mexico.

lmbo
Does he not realize that they left Mexico because, well, it was Mexico?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: April 28, 2015, 05:44:13 PM »

One party rule is the goal for the Democrat party, they want to control everybody and tell people how to think in their perfect utopia.

"One party rule" is the goal of every political party.
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