NH-Gravis: Walker & Paul ahead of Clinton

[Tender Branson]

April 21-22 Townhall/Gravis poll:

47-44 Walker/Clinton
45-44 Paul/Clinton
42-42 Clinton/Bush
45-44 Clinton/Rubio
43-41 Clinton/Christie
47-44 Clinton/Cruz

Notes: Gravis Insights, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of potential Republican and Democratic Primary voters in New Hampshire, as well as general election voters. The poll included 666 respondents for the Republican Primary and 369 for the Democratic Primary and 1,117 overall respondents. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4% for the Republican Primary and ± 5% for the Democratic Primary. Results may not sum to 100% because of rounding. The poll was conducted using IVR technology. The weighting of the results was performed separately depending on whether the question was for all respondents, just Republicans, or just Democrats.

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/new-hampshire-poll-ayotte-opens-up-6-point-lead-walker-others-lead-clinton/

[Landslide Lyndon]

Notes: Gravis Insights, a nonpartisan research firm,

Sure they are.

[King]

poll included 666 respondents for the Republican

RIP

[Free Bird]

>Gravis

Still leans Dem.

What the inks will it take

[Mr. Morden]

poll included 666 respondents for the Republican

RIP

Herman Cain's favorite number whenever he's doing headstands.

[Ebsy]

Clinton's fading in New Hampshire folks! It has nothing to do with the ridiculous sampling! She's just got too much baggage!

[Mr. Illini]

Another epically botched polling sample, as evidenced by the partisan breakdown

[RFayette]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What the hell? I didn't know that NH Evangelicals vote like OK Evangelicals.

Evangelicals are pretty dang Republican everywhere.  I would wager white Evangelicals in OK are even more conservative than 72-22 GOP.

[Xing]

This is presumably the same poll which found Ayotte beating Hassan by 6. Or was it 7? 8? They weren't quite sure. Every other poll shows Clinton ahead, and it's 2015. Nothing to see here, folks.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So much for NH not being in play.

[Ebsy]

So much for NH not being in play.

Is Wulfric a #GravisMarketingFan?

[IceSpear]

>Gravis

[Mr. Morden]

Another epically botched polling sample, as evidenced by the partisan breakdown

Again, you're misunderstanding how polling works.  They sampled a large number of Republicans, because they want a large sample for the presumably competitive GOP primary race (whereas the Dem. race is less competitive, so they don't care as much about sample size).  But the large number of Republicans in the sample are then weighted down to something more realistic when they compute the GE numbers.  That's why they say:

"The weighting of the results was performed separately depending on whether the question was for all respondents, just Republicans, or just Democrats."

Now, that doesn't mean the poll is any good.  Gravis isn't very good, based on their track record.  But not based on the sample they used in this particular poll, since we don't actually know what partisan breakdown they're assuming in this poll.

[Ebsy]

You're probably giving Gravis too much credit here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll is coloured by the Ayotte poll; which Dems dont have a challenger yet, and by the fact the GOP primary is going on, and Walker's approval are up due to his challenge to Jeb.

Clinton should win the state, but it is in flux right now.

[mds32]

Their numbers on Clinton's trust issue is somewhat correct.

[fenrir]

I believe that Clinton's having trust issues that could break 50%, but I still think this poll is an outlier. New Hampshire's super-white and gets rural-libertarian-gun-enthusiast fast. If Obama could win it and the GOP keeps running to the right on social issues, I don't see how Hillary loses it.

[Skill and Chance]

The problem for Republicans is that there is almost no path to victory for them anymore:



This is what the 2012 map looked like (Obama won the state 52-46). The 2nd Congressional district is starting to vote like its neighbor Vermont. You combine that with shrinking Republican margins in the 1st district and you get a "lean/likely Democratic" status for 2016.

Just for comparison, this is the 2000 NH map (Bush won the state 48-47):



The 2nd district is killing the GOP in NH. Heck, it trended and even SWUNG towards the Dems in a wave year (2014):



This is the 2014 NH Trend map for the Senate race.

Yes, it's especially curious to me that its the rural areas swinging hard left here.  NH/VT/MA-01 is the only place in the country that we've conclusively seen rural whites do that recently.  The closest comparable situation is with the ancestral Hispanic population in rural northern NM/southern CO.