Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

[jaichind]

PPK vote lead shrings to around 120K.  Most likely he will win but it will be very close.

[ag]

PPK vote lead shrings to around 120K.  Most likely he will win but it will be very close.

More like 103K.

[jaichind]

PPK vote lead shrings to around 120K.  Most likely he will win but it will be very close.

More like 103K.

You are right, typo.  I agues it now comes down to how the foreign votes look like and how much can Fujimori gain in the few remaining Peru votes.  I looked at the states with outstanding votes and there does not seem to be a bias in favor of either candidate so Fujimori has to hope the votes outsanding are DIFFERENT from the votes have have been counted so far in each state.  A difficult hope.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

neoliberal and right wing populist (she's not a neofascist)

She, herself, may be not a fascist, but neither I would call her a liberal, or even a neoliberal. Fujimoris have no respect for the liberal limitations on the authority of the state.

When i said neoliberal I was referring to PPK, not Keiko or fujimorismo

[Famous Mortimer]

PPK vote lead shrings to around 120K.  Most likely he will win but it will be very close.

More like 103K.

You are right, typo.  I agues it now comes down to how the foreign votes look like and how much can Fujimori gain in the few remaining Peru votes.  I looked at the states with outstanding votes and there does not seem to be a bias in favor of either candidate so Fujimori has to hope the votes outsanding are DIFFERENT from the votes have have been counted so far in each state.  A difficult hope.

I imagine foreign voters are very in favor of PPK. Every Peruvian I've met in America absolutely hates Fujimori.

[jaichind]

Looks like the vote counting has stopped.  I guess it will be hours if not days before we find out for sure who won.

[ag]

Looks like the vote counting has stopped.  I guess it will be hours if not days before we find out for sure who won.

They are reporting in large chunks at rare intervals. Remember, the first report was 36%.

[Vega]

Looks like the vote counting has stopped.  I guess it will be hours if not days before we find out for sure who won.

They are reporting in large chunks at rare intervals. Remember, the first report was 36%.

If the April election is any indication, they should be done counting by tomorrow evening.

[Vega]

Few percent more came in, bringing us up to 94.19%, and making PPK's lead even narrower...

PPK - 50.27%
Fujimori - 49.72%

Just over 90,000 votes separate them.

[buritobr]

There are double meaning jokes in Brazil about the Peruvian election.

Peru is one of the many names for "penis" in Portuguese. The bird "turkey" is known as "peru" in Portuguese. Since a penis looks like a bird, we use the word "peru" for penis.
The spelling of PPK is pepeka. This is also one of the many names for vagina.
That's why there are many jokes about the sentence that PPK will make Peru better. Or Peru needs PPK.

Even the Peruvian media made an article about the Brazilian jokes
http://rpp.pe/virales/facebook/por-que-brasil-quiere-que-ppk-sea-presidente-noticia-939546

[jaichind]

Gap down to around 74K.  Problem is that there are not that much votes left in Peru itself.  Unless Fujimori gets an unusually large boost from the rest of the Peru vote and hope that somehow the foreign vote goes Fujimori I do not see how she wins.

[jaichind]

Lead down to 50K (52K in Puru and 2K lead for Fujimori for foreign vote.)  It is not clear how many votes are left in Peru itself.  Is it number of recorded votes (99.2% done) or number of proccesed votes (97.2%)?  If it is the latter then there are still a lot of votes out there and they are more likely not or pro-Fujimori as they must be from rural remote areas.   So far 76K of the foreign votes have been counted.  I read that there are around 850K foreign votes so if Fujimori can make some gains in the Peru vote she might have a chance.  I also read that back in 2012 Fujimori swept the fairly large Peru voters living in USA vote.  If she can do the same this time we might end up with the situation where Fujimori wins overall but loses the Peru only vote and only wins based on the international vote.

[ag]

Difference between recorded and processed is likely mostly due to illegible/badly filled out/ otherwise difficult actas. These can be from anywhere.

[Vega]

So, which category of actas should be seen to see how many are left? Some people tell me Recorded, other tell me Processed.

[jaichind]

Gap down to 47K but that seems to be totally as result of Fujimori's lead in foreign vote count going over 4K.  PPK's Peru only lead is still around 51.6K.  It is hard to see how the foreign vote can overcome the remaining 47K advantage by itself.  Fujimori has to make real gains in what remains of the Peru vote.

[Vega]

Gap down to 47K but that seems to be totally as result of Fujimori's lead in foreign vote count going over 4K.  PPK's Peru only lead is still around 51.6K.  It is hard to see how the foreign vote can overcome the remaining 47K advantage by itself.  Fujimori has to make real gains in what remains of the Peru vote.

And she might given what's out in the rural areas.

[Vega]

Also, of the overseas vote, most of Asian isn't in yet (no more than 12 votes), and if the primary and the previous election is any reflection, she'll win it big.

She's winning America as well, 52-47 with over half in.

[DavidB.]

Also, of the overseas vote, most of Asian isn't in yet (no more than 12 votes), and if the primary and the previous election is any reflection, she'll win it big.

She's winning America as well, 52-47 with over half in.

How is that possible? I fully expected the less "authoritarian" candidate to win internationally. I imagine Keiko's ethnicity might play a role in Asia (though I won't pretend to know anything about these dynamics in Peruvian society), but elsewhere?

[jaichind]

PPK's running mate, Martin Vizcarra, declared victory saying that on the ground reports shows that PPK should win by 100K

[Vega]

Also, of the overseas vote, most of Asian isn't in yet (no more than 12 votes), and if the primary and the previous election is any reflection, she'll win it big.

She's winning America as well, 52-47 with over half in.

How is that possible? I fully expected the less "authoritarian" candidate to win internationally. I imagine Keiko's ethnicity might play a role in Asia (though I won't pretend to know anything about these dynamics in Peruvian society), but elsewhere?

I think you're thinking about it the wrong way. International Peruvians don't usually make up a unique constituency and so I don't think you can think of them unanimously in any direction.

[Vega]

PPK's running mate, Martin Vizcarra, declared victory saying that on the ground reports shows that PPK should win by 100K

What reports are those?

[jaichind]

PPK's running mate, Martin Vizcarra, declared victory saying that on the ground reports shows that PPK should win by 100K

What reports are those?

I read it on a Agence France-Presse newswire

[Ebsy]

Hopefully an early victory declaration does not come back to bite him in the ass.

[Vega]

Hopefully an early victory declaration does not come back to bite him in the ass.

I mean, he'll have egg in his face, but if he doesn't win, it's the last election he'll run in, so it's nothing to worry about.

[jaichind]

PPK's lead back up to almost 54K as a bunch of pro-PPK votes came in from Europe.