Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

[RodPresident]

Congressional elections show that much of Mendoza votes are Keiko loan votes looking for a weaker candidate in runoff. PPK coalition is more coherent, but he gained a lot of loan votes. And Acuña is a kingmaker with 11 seats. Mendoza in runoff probably will stay neutral as PPK is the candidate of traditional Peruvian oligarchy and Keiko has all of Fujimori baggage.

[jaichind]

Congressional elections show that much of Mendoza votes are Keiko loan votes looking for a weaker candidate in runoff. PPK coalition is more coherent, but he gained a lot of loan votes. And Acuña is a kingmaker with 11 seats. Mendoza in runoff probably will stay neutral as PPK is the candidate of traditional Peruvian oligarchy and Keiko has all of Fujimori baggage.

Perhaps.  But FA got 22 out of 130 seats according to the Ipsos exit poll which is for sure below the projected Mendoza vote share but not by that much.  I am wondering part of the FP's large number of seats might stem from threshold effects of PR as well  Mendoza voters voting for FP.  Also it could be various other voters for the smaller candidates tactically voting for FA since unlike the Prez election there is no second round.  All this seems to point to Fujimori being a formidable opponent on the second round and that despite talks of a ceiling for Fujimori well below 50% in the second round that ceiling might very well be well above 50%.

[jaichind]

Quick count of key districts has

Fujimori    39.1%
PPK           21.9%
Mendoza    18.6%
Barnechea   7.2%
Garcia         5.6%

It seems that the gap between PPK and Mendoza is large enough to indicate that it almost certainly Fujimori vs PPK second round which was the most likely scenario at the beginning of this election cycle before all sorts of shifts in the polls followed by various craziness around candidates being barred etc etc.

[Vega]

According to the exit poll, Fujimori's party is 6 seats away from a 2/3rds majority in congress..

[Skye]

I hope Mendoza gets shut down. It would be interesting to see a Keiko vs PPK runoff.

[jaichind]

According to the exit poll, Fujimori's party is 6 seats away from a 2/3rds majority in congress..

Did you get that right?  The Peru Congress has 130 seats and not 100.

[Edu]

If the exit polls mostly matches final results which means PPK is somewhat more likely than Mendoza, and if Fujimori is defeated on the second ballot then PPK would have overcome the largest every gap in a two round election to win.  The largest gap ever overcome on the first round I can think of is France 1974 where incumbent d'Estaing was behind Mitterrand 43-33 on the first round but came back to win 51-49 on the second round.  PPK or Mendoza would have to overcome a gap twice as large even if most of both voting blocs seems to prefer each other than Fujimori.

I found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guinean_presidential_election,_2010

LMAO

[jaichind]

If the exit polls mostly matches final results which means PPK is somewhat more likely than Mendoza, and if Fujimori is defeated on the second ballot then PPK would have overcome the largest every gap in a two round election to win.  The largest gap ever overcome on the first round I can think of is France 1974 where incumbent d'Estaing was behind Mitterrand 43-33 on the first round but came back to win 51-49 on the second round.  PPK or Mendoza would have to overcome a gap twice as large even if most of both voting blocs seems to prefer each other than Fujimori.

I found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guinean_presidential_election,_2010

LMAO

Wow.  That's crazy.  While I know nothing about Guinea or that election results like that can only be explained by ethnic voting.

[jaichind]

Updated Ipsos quick count

Fujimori     39.2%
PPK            22.1%
Mendoza    18.4%
Barnechea   7.1%

[jaichind]

With 20% of the vote counted it seems to be

Fujimori     38.0%
PPK            25.5%
Mendoza    16.2%

Sort of confirms that it will be PPK in the second round despite the late Mendoza surge last few weeks.

[Vega]

It's only 20%, but all the quick counts and a general "feeling" makes me think that it will be the Pole or the Japanese who will rule Peru next.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

.  The PPK's party logo


Also makes it clear what this party is all about.

Just for comparison, this is the old logo

Which even had a live action mascot, named Cuyczynski

(I swear this is for real)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If the exit polls mostly matches final results which means PPK is somewhat more likely than Mendoza, and if Fujimori is defeated on the second ballot then PPK would have overcome the largest every gap in a two round election to win.  The largest gap ever overcome on the first round I can think of is France 1974 where incumbent d'Estaing was behind Mitterrand 43-33 on the first round but came back to win 51-49 on the second round.  PPK or Mendoza would have to overcome a gap twice as large even if most of both voting blocs seems to prefer each other than Fujimori.

I found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guinean_presidential_election,_2010

LMAO

Wow.  That's crazy.  While I know nothing about Guinea or that election results like that can only be explained by ethnic voting.

There's this.

1st round:
Frank 49%
Russo 37%
Bock 8.7%

2nd round:
Bock wins

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_election_musical_chairs#March_30.2C_1999:_special_run-off_State_Assembly_election

[jaichind]

Final Ipsos quick count

Fujimori     39.6%
PPK            21.5%
Mendoza    18.7%

[jaichind]

With 40% of the vote counted it seems to be

Fujimori     39.2%
PPK            24.3%
Mendoza    16.6%

[jaichind]

ONPE reports with 59.3% of the votes counted it is

Fujimori     39.40%
PPK            23.96%
Mendoza    16.87%
Barnechea    7.66%
Garcia          6.14%

Fuijmori going up over time, Mendoza also going up over time but slower, and PPK going down over time.  Trends seems to converge toward the quick count totals.

I guess also in the battle of the ex-presidents,  Garcia beats out Toledo who is down at 1.22%

[jaichind]

ONPE reports with 64.43% of the votes counted it is

Fujimori     39.46%
PPK            23.73%
Mendoza    17.12%
Barnechea    7.54%
Garcia          6.08%

[jaichind]

Latest Ipsos project for Congress are (out of 130)

FP       65   (Fujimori party)
PPK     23   (PPK party)
FA       21   (Mendoza party)
APP     11   (Acuna (who was barred from running) party)

Looks like FP will be close to majority on its own.

[Vega]

So, the big question is whether Fujimori can weather the coalescing of Anti-Fujimori voters to PPK. Her best bet is that they don't vote or invalidate their ballot, because PPK is obviously considerably to the right of Mendoza.

If she can collect former Barnechea and/or Acuna voters, that would be a big help.

[jaichind]

Now that Mendoza is off the list of Prez and the final round will be between two Right wing neo-liberal candidates (different Right wing but Right wing never-the-less) the Peru market surged.  Peru's main index is up over 8% and the Sol is up almost 2%.

[jaichind]

So, the big question is whether Fujimori can weather the coalescing of Anti-Fujimori voters to PPK. Her best bet is that they don't vote or invalidate their ballot, because PPK is obviously considerably to the right of Mendoza.

If she can collect former Barnechea and/or Acuna voters, that would be a big help.

What she will have to do is to make promises not to interfere with the judicial process for her fathers pardon.  Any talk of her father being back with her as Prez will consolidate the anti-Fujimori vote.  Now that Mendoza is out she should instead hammer away on women's issues and corner the women's vote.

[Vega]

So, the big question is whether Fujimori can weather the coalescing of Anti-Fujimori voters to PPK. Her best bet is that they don't vote or invalidate their ballot, because PPK is obviously considerably to the right of Mendoza.

If she can collect former Barnechea and/or Acuna voters, that would be a big help.

What she will have to do is to make promises not to interfere with the judicial process for her fathers pardon.  Any talk of her father being back with her as Prez will consolidate the anti-Fujimori vote.  Now that Mendoza is out she should instead hammer away on women's issues and corner the women's vote.

I think that was always the plan this election. Alberto isn't an asset and never will be, but I don't think she won't do everything to pardon him. I can't blame her for that, though the electorate will.

On the other hand, though, I think that PPK will have to win over the Fujimorist Congress, and to do so, pardoning Alberto would be a huge asset.

I don't think he will, but that would certainly help relations with the other right wing bloc that he will need to get his policies through.

[jaichind]

I always had a soft spot for Fujimori senior.  I remember back in early 1990s during my first year of college I spend the summer back in my childhood province of Taiwan.  One night I went out to dinner with my relatives and friends of theirs that worked in the ROC DoD.  They told us how they spent the day with a Peru delegation to look over the ROC military archives from the the 1920s-1940s.  The Peru government under Fujimori was looking for ways to deal with the Maoist Shining Path.  I guess one way was "Hey, lets see how the original anti-Maoist counterinsurgency did it and see what worked and what did not."  That involved looking at how the ROC dealt with the Maoist CCP insurgency in the 1930s which led them to look at the ROC archives on Taiwan Province.  Most of my relatives never heard of Peru so myself and these ROC DoD friends spent the dinner talking about Peru and the growth of the Maoist insurgency.  I remember at the dinner I was thing "Yeah, hopefully Fujimori could succeed where we on the ROC failed to crush the Maoist bandits back in the 1930s."  For me Fujimori smashing the Shining Path and then the Túpac Amaru Revolutionary Movement was living out my dreams of what should have happen to Mao and the CCP.  Months later I read that Guzmán was captured by Fujimori's regime.  I remember having a toast to Fujimori and saying "Long Live Fujimori !! Long Live El Chino!!"

[jaichind]

ONPE reports with 84.62% of the votes counted it is

Fujimori     39.50%
PPK            21.56%
Mendoza    18.52%
Barnechea    7.08%
Garcia          5.91%

[jaichind]

ONPE reports with 89.67% of the votes counted it is

Fujimori     39.48%
PPK            21.38%
Mendoza    18.64%
Barnechea    7.04%
Garcia          5.90%