Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

[jaichind]

One thing I noticed about the last few Peru elections is that in the elections 2001 2006 2011 the second place finisher of the previous election goes on the win the next one.  Toledo for coming in second in 2000 and then winning 2001.  García for coming in second 2001 followed by winning in 2006.  Humala for coming in second 2006 followed by winning in 2011.      If so then 2016 looks very good for Keiko Fujimori especially when she is currently the front runner anyway.

[ag]

One thing I noticed about the last few Peru elections is that in the elections 2001 2006 2011 the second place finisher of the previous election goes on the win the next one.  Toledo for coming in second in 2000 and then winning 2001.  García for coming in second 2001 followed by winning in 2006.  Humala for coming in second 2006 followed by winning in 2011.      If so then 2016 looks very good for Keiko Fujimori especially when she is currently the front runner anyway.

I know a lot of Peruvians who would be flabbergasted.

[jaichind]

One thing I noticed about the last few Peru elections is that in the elections 2001 2006 2011 the second place finisher of the previous election goes on the win the next one.  Toledo for coming in second in 2000 and then winning 2001.  García for coming in second 2001 followed by winning in 2006.  Humala for coming in second 2006 followed by winning in 2011.      If so then 2016 looks very good for Keiko Fujimori especially when she is currently the front runner anyway.

I know a lot of Peruvians who would be flabbergasted.

Well, I tend to back the Fujimori clan in Peru all things equal.  Of course as a Chinese guy it is hard not to back someone called "El Chino."

[ag]

One thing I noticed about the last few Peru elections is that in the elections 2001 2006 2011 the second place finisher of the previous election goes on the win the next one.  Toledo for coming in second in 2000 and then winning 2001.  García for coming in second 2001 followed by winning in 2006.  Humala for coming in second 2006 followed by winning in 2011.      If so then 2016 looks very good for Keiko Fujimori especially when she is currently the front runner anyway.

I know a lot of Peruvians who would be flabbergasted.

Well, I tend to back the Fujimori clan in Peru all things equal.  Of course as a Chinese guy it is hard not to back someone called "El Chino."

I do not know any Peruvians of this persuasion. And I know many Peruvians

[warandwar]

One thing I noticed about the last few Peru elections is that in the elections 2001 2006 2011 the second place finisher of the previous election goes on the win the next one.  Toledo for coming in second in 2000 and then winning 2001.  García for coming in second 2001 followed by winning in 2006.  Humala for coming in second 2006 followed by winning in 2011.      If so then 2016 looks very good for Keiko Fujimori especially when she is currently the front runner anyway.

I know a lot of Peruvians who would be flabbergasted.

Well, I tend to back the Fujimori clan in Peru all things equal.  Of course as a Chinese guy it is hard not to back someone called "El Chino."

Extrajudicial execution fan?

[jaichind]

I do not know any Peruvians of this persuasion. And I know many Peruvians

Yes.  On the other hand polls does seem to point of Keiko as the frontrunner.

[Vosem]

When I traveled to Peru over the summer (I spent around two weeks in the Huaraz area), an overwhelming majority of signs that I saw (in Peru, election ads and slogans are frequently painted on the walls of buildings, especially ones by roadways) were the orange K of Keiko Fujimori, with Alan Garcia's being a distant second. Signs don't vote (and in a Latin American country with significant socioeconomic stratification, that may be especially true), but just saying.

[warandwar]

When I traveled to Peru over the summer (I spent around two weeks in the Huaraz area), an overwhelming majority of signs that I saw (in Peru, election ads and slogans are frequently painted on the walls of buildings, especially ones by roadways) were the orange K of Keiko Fujimori, with Alan Garcia's being a distant second. Signs don't vote (and in a Latin American country with significant socioeconomic stratification, that may be especially true), but just saying.

I'm not sure if that is necessarily indicative of popular support. Seems more like party wealth/strength.

[Vega]

When I traveled to Peru over the summer (I spent around two weeks in the Huaraz area), an overwhelming majority of signs that I saw (in Peru, election ads and slogans are frequently painted on the walls of buildings, especially ones by roadways) were the orange K of Keiko Fujimori, with Alan Garcia's being a distant second. Signs don't vote (and in a Latin American country with significant socioeconomic stratification, that may be especially true), but just saying.

I'm not sure if that is necessarily indicative of popular support. Seems more like party wealth/strength.

And I'm sure the money that her father embezzled is helping her win out in that department.

[jmlv]

Ollanta Humala cannot run again?

[Vega]

Ollanta Humala cannot run again?

Peruvian Presidents our limited initially to one 5 year term, they can run again in 5 years, though, if they chose.

[jaichind]

http://elcomercio.pe/politica/elecciones/keiko-fujimori-encabeza-intencion-voto-miras-al-2016-noticia-1847589

Latest poll has
Keiko     37
PPK       18
Garcia     8
Toledo     5

46% feel that Keiko will win the election.

[jaichind]

http://www.ipsos.pe/sites/default/files/opinion_data/6201015_INF_V4_19oct15%28OD%29.pdf

Latest poll

Keiko     35
PPK       14
Garcia     9
Acuña     6
Toledo     5


Runoffs

Keiko     51
PPK       34

Keiko     59
Garcia    18

Looks like only PPK has a chance against Keiko in the runoffs.

[Vega]

I suppose there isn't a great chance of Keiko avoiding a run off and clearing 50%?

[Paleobrazilian]

Great to see yet another Foro de São Paulo candidate sinking without trace.

[MaxQue]

Great to see yet another Foro de São Paulo candidate sinking without trace.

Better a Foro de Sao Paulo candidate than la hija de un dictador.

[jaichind]

Datum. 

http://www.datum.com.pe/pdf/PUL0116.pdf

Fujimori still way ahead.

[RodPresident]

Great to see yet another Foro de São Paulo candidate sinking without trace.

Better a Foro de Sao Paulo candidate than la hija de un dictador.

Neither Foro de Sao Paulo, neither Keiko will win. Acuña will get late surge and get a place in run-off.

[Vega]

So, apparently Julio Guzman has dropped out, and Acuna is going to possibly be barred from competing.

http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Peru-Presidential-Candidate-Drops-Out-Citing-Irregularities-20160220-0005.html

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Peru really needs to adopt an absolute term limits. Otherwise we'll have Garcia and Toledo still running in the 2030s.

[jaichind]

Peru really needs to adopt an absolute term limits. Otherwise we'll have Garcia and Toledo still running in the 2030s.

Do not forget Humala who is fairly young and can clearly run in 2021.

[Vega]

So, if I may ask, what is the general 'state' of Peru? I know it is still a developing country, but has it made any gains? It seems like Peru in the past 10 odd years has suffered from some fairly lackluster Presidents who haven't accomplished much.

[MaxQue]

So, if I may ask, what is the general 'state' of Peru? I know it is still a developing country, but has it made any gains? It seems like Peru in the past 10 odd years has suffered from some fairly lackluster Presidents who haven't accomplished much.

Police is allowed to beat up gay people.

[Nhoj]

So, if I may ask, what is the general 'state' of Peru? I know it is still a developing country, but has it made any gains? It seems like Peru in the past 10 odd years has suffered from some fairly lackluster Presidents who haven't accomplished much.

one of the fastest growing SA countries in recent years. But I imagine the current global commodities price collapse is doing a number this year.

[Vega]

I was reading an article from a few months back, and it interestingly said that Alberto Fujimori preferred his younger brother, Santiago, who was born in 1948, or his son, Kenji.

So I would expect those two to play a large role in any Keiko administration. Nepotism at its finest.