Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

[Vega]

What is out at this point is almost entirely entirely areas Mendoza is already leading in, including Cusco Region, which, if she were to increase her margin in by enough, the rest of the vote might look good.

I don't think it's completely improbable for her to close the gap, but, it is very difficult.

[jaichind]

What is interesting is that over 16% of all votes cast are blanks or nulls so far.  Back in 2011 that ratio was only around 11% in the first phase.  It seems the "against all" vote surged from 2011.  Of course back in 2006 it was 16% as well.

[Vega]

What is interesting is that over 16% of all votes cast are blanks or nulls so far.  Back in 2011 that ratio was only around 11% in the first phase.  It seems the "against all" vote surged from 2011.  Of course back in 2006 it was 16% as well.

Well, I think the big reason is that Guzmán (Julio, that is) was disqualified. Had he not been, and as the (apparently) accurate polls showed, he would have placed 2nd.

He occupied a unique niche in the electorate, so I'm not surprised that many didn't vote for someone else, and spoiled their ballots. There is also Acuna, who was disqualified.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any chance the anti-Fujimori vote can coalesce to push PPK over the top in the runoff?

[Vega]

Any chance the anti-Fujimori vote can coalesce to push PPK over the top in the runoff?

I think that's the likely scenario. Ironically, this might be the opposite of 2011, where it was Keiko's race to lose (and she did).

She definitely has a tough road though. I think her best bet is that, as Jaichind said, a solid amount of Mendoza's support were her supporters looking for a weaker candidate (a smart voting strategy, by the way), and general socialist apathy in voting for a naturalized former American investment banker.      

[jaichind]

Any chance the anti-Fujimori vote can coalesce to push PPK over the top in the runoff?

I theory this can take place.  In practice I contend a gap as large as Fujimori-PPK on the first round is just too much to overcome.  If that many people could have voted PPK and did not there are only that many votes PPK can get.   

[jaichind]

ONPE reports with 91.74% of the votes counted it is

Fujimori     39.53%
PPK            21.25%
Mendoza    18.72%
Barnechea    7.00%
Garcia          5.87%

[jaichind]

ONPE reports with 94.95% of the votes counted it is

Fujimori     39.71%
PPK            21.05%
Mendoza    18.80%
Barnechea    6.96%
Garcia          5.85%

For the Congress vote where 84.14% of the vote counted it is

FP        35.6%   (Fujimori party)
PPK      15.5%   (PPK party)
FA       14.6%   (Mendoza party)
APP       10.0%   (Acuna (who was barred from running) party)
APRA/    8.4%   (Garcia bloc)
PPC
AP         7.2%   (Barnechea party)

Looks like there area already tactical voting for the 3 front runners

[jaichind]

ONPE reports with 97.57% of the votes counted it is

Fujimori     39.80%
PPK            21.00%
Mendoza    18.84%
Barnechea    6.94%
Garcia          5.83%

For the Congress vote where 95.42% of the vote counted it is

FP        36.0%   (Fujimori party)
PPK      16.0%   (PPK party)
FA       14.3%   (Mendoza party)
APP        9.6%   (Acuna (who was barred from running) party)
APRA/    8.4%   (Garcia bloc)
PPC
AP         7.2%   (Barnechea party)

[jaichind]

Looks like FP or the Fujimori party will win a clear majority of 68 seats out of 130 in the Congress.  Even if PPK wins he will face a Fujimori majority in the legislative branch.

[Vega]

Looks like FP or the Fujimori party will win a clear majority of 68 seats out of 130 in the Congress.  Even if PPK wins he will face a Fujimori majority in the legislative branch.

Throwing his weight as President in favor of a pardon would help ease the tensions.

[seb_pard]

https://resultadoselecciones2016.onpe.gob.pe

You can check the results here (is in spanish, but I believe is relatively easy to use the site).

The results for Chile (with 93.49% percent of the vote reported) it is:

Fujimori                   52.21% (15,616 votes)
PPK                          16.25% (4,861)
Vero Mendoza           14,43% (4,315)
Barnechea                6.01%   (1,797)
Garcia                      5.95%   (1,779)

Fujimori performed great (sadly but expected) in Chile. You can see the results by city, so if you wanna  know how the peruvians near you voted you can check on the site (I think the result is by consulate).

As I read in El Comercio, a congresswoman from Fuerza Popular (Cecilia Chacón) just said that Alberto Fujimori's trial should be nullified so he can exit "through the big door". So it begins.

[Vega]

As I read in El Comercio, a congresswoman from Fuerza Popular (Cecilia Chacón) just said that Alberto Fujimori's trial should be nullified so he can exit "through the big door". So it begins.

What exactly is this implying? He's going to kick the bucket, go to another country, or gain power again?

PPK seems to be in favor of house arrest for Alberto, which I think is a fair compromise given his advanced age, if you don't want to pardon him.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I hope Alan Garcia will finally get the memo and stop running every election.

[Vega]

I hope Alan Garcia will finally get the memo and stop running every election.

He managed to win 2006...

[Vosem]

Santos' support must have been crazy localized if he only won 4% nationwide but still placed first in Cajamarca...

[jaichind]

Santos' support must have been crazy localized if he only won 4% nationwide but still placed first in Cajamarca...

I believe he is the governor of  Cajamarca.

[seb_pard]

Santos' support must have been crazy localized if he only won 4% nationwide but still placed first in Cajamarca...

He is Cajamarca's governor (although he is in Jail) and apparently he is seen like a hero there because he opposed many Mining projects in the department (particularly Conga project).

[seb_pard]

As I read in El Comercio, a congresswoman from Fuerza Popular (Cecilia Chacón) just said that Alberto Fujimori's trial should be nullified so he can exit "through the big door". So it begins.

What exactly is this implying? He's going to kick the bucket, go to another country, or gain power again?

PPK seems to be in favor of house arrest for Alberto, which I think is a fair compromise given his advanced age, if you don't want to pardon him.

"Salir a traves de la puerta grande" means to retire like a hero.

[Zuza]

Santos' support must have been crazy localized if he only won 4% nationwide but still placed first in Cajamarca...

He is Cajamarca's governor (although he is in Jail) and apparently he is seen like a hero there because he opposed many Mining projects in the department (particularly Conga project).

So his 1st place in Cajamarca isn't surprising at all. His 3rd place (with 20 % of votes!) in Puno, which is at the opposite end of Peru, looks much more strange. Is there any explanation?

[jaichind]

Santos' support must have been crazy localized if he only won 4% nationwide but still placed first in Cajamarca...

He is Cajamarca's governor (although he is in Jail) and apparently he is seen like a hero there because he opposed many Mining projects in the department (particularly Conga project).

So his 1st place in Cajamarca isn't surprising at all. His 3rd place (with 20 % of votes!) in Puno, which is at the opposite end of Peru, looks much more strange. Is there any explanation?

I have no idea why that took place.  I was perplexed as well when exit poll results had him running strong in Puno which like you said was on the opposite of Peru.  I do not know anywhere close enough about Peru politics to know why.

[seb_pard]

Well, as you can see, the peruvian left is very strong in southern Peru and Santos is still very popular in that group. You probably don't know but in Peru there is a lot of problem in the mining sector, specially between the companies/government and local communities (this is in fact one reason Humala is deeply unpopular). Santos is (or was) an icon in the left because his stance against mining companies. Besides that, in Puno there's a big issue with illegal mining. That third place show that he was a strong politician before sent to prison.

PD: Peru's mining GDP is growing at annual rates of 25% approx (if I'm not wrong, the growth in 2015 of the economy was 3%). This is because there are a lot of projects that were stalled because of clashes and trials).

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Argentina (this numbers are for valid votes, and with only 57% of the ballots reported)
Fujimori                            51.43 (13,122 votes)
Mendoza                         16.43 (4,191)
PPK                                  12.9 (3,292)
Alan                                 6.90 (1,761)
Barnechea                      6.73 (1,716)
Olivera (Frente Esperanza) 2.89 (737)
Toledo                           1.16 (295)
Santos                          0.73 (186)
Hilario (Progresando Peru)  0.53 (136)
Antero Flores (Orden).   0.30 (77)

[jaichind]

I think we are pretty much done

ONPE reports with 99.62% of the votes counted it is

Fujimori     39.81%
PPK            20.99%
Mendoza    18.84%
Barnechea    6.97%
Garcia          5.82%

For the Congress vote where 99.17% of the vote counted it is

FP        36.0%   (Fujimori party)
PPK      16.3%   (PPK party)
FA       14.1%   (Mendoza party)
APP        9.6%   (Acuna (who was barred from running) party)
APRA/    8.4%   (Garcia bloc)
PPC
AP         7.2%   (Barnechea party)

[Velasco]

Spain (74.6% counted,, valid votes)

Fuerza Popular (Keiko) 12471 (36.52%)
PPK 8390 (24.57%)
Frente Amplio (Veronika) 4831 (14.15%)
Acción Popular  (Barnechea) 4317 (12.64%)
APRA (Alan Garcia) 2016 (5.90%)
Frente Esperanza 1184 (3.47%)
Perú Posible  (Toledo) 388 (1.14%)
Democracia Directa (Santos) 218 (0.64%)
Progresando Perú 203 (0.59%)
Partido Orden 134 (0.39%)