Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

[jaichind]

Looks like a poll back in July has



1.- Keiko Fujimori 31%
2.- Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 12%
3.- Alan García 8%
4.- Alejandro Toledo 4%
5.- Cesar Acuña 3%
5.- Daniel Urresti 2%
6.- Mauricio Diez Canseco 2%
7.- Humberto Lay 2%
8.- Gregorio Santos 1%

I cannot believe how many times Alan García will keep on trying to come back after two pretty bad terms.  Of course his first 1985-1990 term was the true disaster.  And even he is the youngest of the top non-Fujimori tier of PPK, himself and Toledo.   

[jaichind]

I like how Fujimori's party, Fuerza 2011, has as its logo just the letter K.



Just to show who is the boss of this party, Kieko Fujimori.

[jaichind]

One thing I noticed about the last few Peru elections is that in the elections 2001 2006 2011 the second place finisher of the previous election goes on the win the next one.  Toledo for coming in second in 2000 and then winning 2001.  García for coming in second 2001 followed by winning in 2006.  Humala for coming in second 2006 followed by winning in 2011.      If so then 2016 looks very good for Keiko Fujimori especially when she is currently the front runner anyway.

[jaichind]

One thing I noticed about the last few Peru elections is that in the elections 2001 2006 2011 the second place finisher of the previous election goes on the win the next one.  Toledo for coming in second in 2000 and then winning 2001.  García for coming in second 2001 followed by winning in 2006.  Humala for coming in second 2006 followed by winning in 2011.      If so then 2016 looks very good for Keiko Fujimori especially when she is currently the front runner anyway.

I know a lot of Peruvians who would be flabbergasted.

Well, I tend to back the Fujimori clan in Peru all things equal.  Of course as a Chinese guy it is hard not to back someone called "El Chino."

[jaichind]

I do not know any Peruvians of this persuasion. And I know many Peruvians

Yes.  On the other hand polls does seem to point of Keiko as the frontrunner.

[jaichind]

http://elcomercio.pe/politica/elecciones/keiko-fujimori-encabeza-intencion-voto-miras-al-2016-noticia-1847589

Latest poll has
Keiko     37
PPK       18
Garcia     8
Toledo     5

46% feel that Keiko will win the election.

[jaichind]

http://www.ipsos.pe/sites/default/files/opinion_data/6201015_INF_V4_19oct15%28OD%29.pdf

Latest poll

Keiko     35
PPK       14
Garcia     9
Acuña     6
Toledo     5


Runoffs

Keiko     51
PPK       34

Keiko     59
Garcia    18

Looks like only PPK has a chance against Keiko in the runoffs.

[jaichind]

Datum. 

http://www.datum.com.pe/pdf/PUL0116.pdf

Fujimori still way ahead.

[jaichind]

Peru really needs to adopt an absolute term limits. Otherwise we'll have Garcia and Toledo still running in the 2030s.

Do not forget Humala who is fairly young and can clearly run in 2021.

[jaichind]

Acuña was barred from election, as Julio Guzmán (young moderate hero) who was 2nd in polls. And government candidate Daniel Urresti is out too. Now, who is having momentum is Alfredo Barnechea, from traditional AP. He started political career in APRA, split with first Garcia government, supported Vargas Llosa and is in political comeback. Left-wing Verónika Mendoza is in a good position too.
Predictions for run-off scenarios:
KF vs. PPK - Leans KF
KF vs. García - Toss-up
KF vs. Barnechea - Likely Barnechea
KF vs. Mendoza - Likely KF

The same poll had KF vs PPK second round with KF ahead 46-34.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) --
Keiko Fujimori, the front-runner in Peru’s presidential election, was cleared of trying to buy votes, saving the election from slipping into farce after two other leading candidates were barred and another accused of irregularities.

Fujimori didn’t offer or hand out money or gifts in exchange for votes, government news agency Andina reported, citing a ruling by the Lima Centro 1 electoral board. The ruling follows allegations she participated in a ceremony where a member of her Fuerza Popular party gave prize money to the winners of a dance contest.

[jaichind]

Its pretty sad how low down in the polls former Presidents Toledo and Garcia are.

[jaichind]

Its pretty sad how low down in the polls former Presidents Toledo and Garcia are.

Is it, though? I can't say I'm all that surprised. Toledo barely ever cracked the 30s in approval ratings after his first year in office, and Garcia, well, people are sick of him.

I think Peru should abolish term limits or enshrine absolute ones. It is rather annoying to see the same show of failed ex-Presidentes every year. Humala or his wife will probably end up running in 2020.

Peruvians forget to easy.

It is not surprising given their track record but it is pretty sad. No idea why they are running only to do this badly.

[jaichind]

Exit polls

Ipsos

Fujimori    37.8%
PPK           20.9%
Mendoza    20.3%

GFK

Fujimori    39.9%
PPK           20.6%
Mendoza    20.3%

PPK-Mendoza in a statistical tie.

[jaichind]

CPI exit poll has

Fujimori    39.1%
PPK           19.7%
Mendoza    18.8%

[jaichind]

If the exit polls mostly matches final results which means PPK is somewhat more likely than Mendoza, and if Fujimori is defeated on the second ballot then PPK would have overcome the largest every gap in a two round election to win.  The largest gap ever overcome on the first round I can think of is France 1974 where incumbent d'Estaing was behind Mitterrand 43-33 on the first round but came back to win 51-49 on the second round.  PPK or Mendoza would have to overcome a gap twice as large even if most of both voting blocs seems to prefer each other than Fujimori.

[jaichind]

http://peru21.pe/resultados-elecciones-2016?ref=presidencial-nacional

Live results with map.

Thanks.  Even so far it seems that it just has the Ipsos exit polls filled in.  Although the having the exit poll breakdown by district is very useful.

[jaichind]

It seems at 9PM Lima time ONPE will have 30% of the results released.  But that is a full 5 hours after polls closed.  Looks like we will not know who made it into the second round until tomorrow.

[jaichind]

Looking at the second round of 2011 Peru elections exit it seems Fujimori was systematically underestimated by a % or so.  Back then Fujimori was projected around 47.4% of the vote by all three exit pollsters in exist polls against Humala but actually ended up with 48.6%.  Same thing for the first round when 3 exist pollsters had Fujimori at around 21.5%-22% but she ended up with 23.6%.  Using these biases it seems likely that Fujimori most likely crossed 40% this time.

[jaichind]

Looks like the same Ipsos exit poll has Fujimori's FP party winning 60 out of 130 seats in the Congress.  It also has PPK's party, also called PPK with 25 seats. 

As I pointed out before, looking at FP's logo


Makes it clear what the party is about. 

But I just realized it is the same on PPK's side.  The PPK's party logo


Also makes it clear what this party is all about.

[jaichind]

Congressional elections show that much of Mendoza votes are Keiko loan votes looking for a weaker candidate in runoff. PPK coalition is more coherent, but he gained a lot of loan votes. And Acuña is a kingmaker with 11 seats. Mendoza in runoff probably will stay neutral as PPK is the candidate of traditional Peruvian oligarchy and Keiko has all of Fujimori baggage.

Perhaps.  But FA got 22 out of 130 seats according to the Ipsos exit poll which is for sure below the projected Mendoza vote share but not by that much.  I am wondering part of the FP's large number of seats might stem from threshold effects of PR as well  Mendoza voters voting for FP.  Also it could be various other voters for the smaller candidates tactically voting for FA since unlike the Prez election there is no second round.  All this seems to point to Fujimori being a formidable opponent on the second round and that despite talks of a ceiling for Fujimori well below 50% in the second round that ceiling might very well be well above 50%.

[jaichind]

Quick count of key districts has

Fujimori    39.1%
PPK           21.9%
Mendoza    18.6%
Barnechea   7.2%
Garcia         5.6%

It seems that the gap between PPK and Mendoza is large enough to indicate that it almost certainly Fujimori vs PPK second round which was the most likely scenario at the beginning of this election cycle before all sorts of shifts in the polls followed by various craziness around candidates being barred etc etc.

[jaichind]

According to the exit poll, Fujimori's party is 6 seats away from a 2/3rds majority in congress..

Did you get that right?  The Peru Congress has 130 seats and not 100.

[jaichind]

If the exit polls mostly matches final results which means PPK is somewhat more likely than Mendoza, and if Fujimori is defeated on the second ballot then PPK would have overcome the largest every gap in a two round election to win.  The largest gap ever overcome on the first round I can think of is France 1974 where incumbent d'Estaing was behind Mitterrand 43-33 on the first round but came back to win 51-49 on the second round.  PPK or Mendoza would have to overcome a gap twice as large even if most of both voting blocs seems to prefer each other than Fujimori.

I found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guinean_presidential_election,_2010

LMAO

Wow.  That's crazy.  While I know nothing about Guinea or that election results like that can only be explained by ethnic voting.

[jaichind]

Updated Ipsos quick count

Fujimori     39.2%
PPK            22.1%
Mendoza    18.4%
Barnechea   7.1%