Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

[Vega]

I don't know how to feel about Fujimori. It seems like there is a good deal of debate about whether he was a dictator or not... but in either case, perhaps his daughter could turn out to be like Park Geun-hye.

I suppose, as of right now, I'm rooting for whoever Peru Possible puts up.

[Vega]

I like how Fujimori's party, Fuerza 2011, has as its logo just the letter K.



Just to show who is the boss of this party, Kieko Fujimori.

Also Kenji Fujimori, the son. It's a logo that certainly sends a message.

[Vega]

When I traveled to Peru over the summer (I spent around two weeks in the Huaraz area), an overwhelming majority of signs that I saw (in Peru, election ads and slogans are frequently painted on the walls of buildings, especially ones by roadways) were the orange K of Keiko Fujimori, with Alan Garcia's being a distant second. Signs don't vote (and in a Latin American country with significant socioeconomic stratification, that may be especially true), but just saying.

I'm not sure if that is necessarily indicative of popular support. Seems more like party wealth/strength.

And I'm sure the money that her father embezzled is helping her win out in that department.

[Vega]

Ollanta Humala cannot run again?

Peruvian Presidents our limited initially to one 5 year term, they can run again in 5 years, though, if they chose.

[Vega]

I suppose there isn't a great chance of Keiko avoiding a run off and clearing 50%?

[Vega]

So, apparently Julio Guzman has dropped out, and Acuna is going to possibly be barred from competing.

http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Peru-Presidential-Candidate-Drops-Out-Citing-Irregularities-20160220-0005.html

[Vega]

So, if I may ask, what is the general 'state' of Peru? I know it is still a developing country, but has it made any gains? It seems like Peru in the past 10 odd years has suffered from some fairly lackluster Presidents who haven't accomplished much.

[Vega]

I was reading an article from a few months back, and it interestingly said that Alberto Fujimori preferred his younger brother, Santiago, who was born in 1948, or his son, Kenji.

So I would expect those two to play a large role in any Keiko administration. Nepotism at its finest.

[Vega]

I think PPK could surge actually. I don't know where you get that Barnechea has any momentum, though.

[Vega]

(Bloomberg) --
Keiko Fujimori, the front-runner in Peru’s presidential election, was cleared of trying to buy votes, saving the election from slipping into farce after two other leading candidates were barred and another accused of irregularities.

Fujimori didn’t offer or hand out money or gifts in exchange for votes, government news agency Andina reported, citing a ruling by the Lima Centro 1 electoral board. The ruling follows allegations she participated in a ceremony where a member of her Fuerza Popular party gave prize money to the winners of a dance contest.

Coincidentally, that member of her party was her brother, Kenji Fujimori.

Her main challenger, PPK (Pedro Pablo Kuczynski) is also on the chopping block, though given that his case is rather similar to Fujimori's, I imagine he'll be okay.

[Vega]

Its pretty sad how low down in the polls former Presidents Toledo and Garcia are.

Is it, though? I can't say I'm all that surprised. Toledo barely ever cracked the 30s in approval ratings after his first year in office, and Garcia, well, people are sick of him.

I think Peru should abolish term limits or enshrine absolute ones. It is rather annoying to see the same show of failed ex-Presidentes every year. Humala or his wife will probably end up running in 2020.

Peruvians forget to easy.

[Vega]

http://peru21.pe/resultados-elecciones-2016?ref=presidencial-nacional

Live results with map.

[Vega]

According to the exit poll, Fujimori's party is 6 seats away from a 2/3rds majority in congress..

[Vega]

It's only 20%, but all the quick counts and a general "feeling" makes me think that it will be the Pole or the Japanese who will rule Peru next.

[Vega]

So, the big question is whether Fujimori can weather the coalescing of Anti-Fujimori voters to PPK. Her best bet is that they don't vote or invalidate their ballot, because PPK is obviously considerably to the right of Mendoza.

If she can collect former Barnechea and/or Acuna voters, that would be a big help.

[Vega]

So, the big question is whether Fujimori can weather the coalescing of Anti-Fujimori voters to PPK. Her best bet is that they don't vote or invalidate their ballot, because PPK is obviously considerably to the right of Mendoza.

If she can collect former Barnechea and/or Acuna voters, that would be a big help.

What she will have to do is to make promises not to interfere with the judicial process for her fathers pardon.  Any talk of her father being back with her as Prez will consolidate the anti-Fujimori vote.  Now that Mendoza is out she should instead hammer away on women's issues and corner the women's vote.

I think that was always the plan this election. Alberto isn't an asset and never will be, but I don't think she won't do everything to pardon him. I can't blame her for that, though the electorate will.

On the other hand, though, I think that PPK will have to win over the Fujimorist Congress, and to do so, pardoning Alberto would be a huge asset.

I don't think he will, but that would certainly help relations with the other right wing bloc that he will need to get his policies through.

[Vega]

What is out at this point is almost entirely entirely areas Mendoza is already leading in, including Cusco Region, which, if she were to increase her margin in by enough, the rest of the vote might look good.

I don't think it's completely improbable for her to close the gap, but, it is very difficult.

[Vega]

What is interesting is that over 16% of all votes cast are blanks or nulls so far.  Back in 2011 that ratio was only around 11% in the first phase.  It seems the "against all" vote surged from 2011.  Of course back in 2006 it was 16% as well.

Well, I think the big reason is that Guzmán (Julio, that is) was disqualified. Had he not been, and as the (apparently) accurate polls showed, he would have placed 2nd.

He occupied a unique niche in the electorate, so I'm not surprised that many didn't vote for someone else, and spoiled their ballots. There is also Acuna, who was disqualified.

[Vega]

Any chance the anti-Fujimori vote can coalesce to push PPK over the top in the runoff?

I think that's the likely scenario. Ironically, this might be the opposite of 2011, where it was Keiko's race to lose (and she did).

She definitely has a tough road though. I think her best bet is that, as Jaichind said, a solid amount of Mendoza's support were her supporters looking for a weaker candidate (a smart voting strategy, by the way), and general socialist apathy in voting for a naturalized former American investment banker.      

[Vega]

Looks like FP or the Fujimori party will win a clear majority of 68 seats out of 130 in the Congress.  Even if PPK wins he will face a Fujimori majority in the legislative branch.

Throwing his weight as President in favor of a pardon would help ease the tensions.

[Vega]

As I read in El Comercio, a congresswoman from Fuerza Popular (Cecilia Chacón) just said that Alberto Fujimori's trial should be nullified so he can exit "through the big door". So it begins.

What exactly is this implying? He's going to kick the bucket, go to another country, or gain power again?

PPK seems to be in favor of house arrest for Alberto, which I think is a fair compromise given his advanced age, if you don't want to pardon him.

[Vega]

I hope Alan Garcia will finally get the memo and stop running every election.

He managed to win 2006...

[Vega]

Is Humala unpopular?

Humala is the incumbent president of Peru.

And tremendously unpopular for many reasons.

[Vega]

On paper APRA was social democratic, but under Garcia it was substantially to the left of that. He nationalized banks among various other services to poor effect.

Fujimori campaigned as more leftist than he governed, though. APRA and Garcia openly supported him in 1990 against Vargas Llosa, who was seen as far too draconian in his economic shock ideas, even though Fujimori later took similar policies from a think tank and used them in his government.

[Vega]

Who did APRA/Garcia back in the run-off last time?

I'd imagine Humala considering he would have been arrested by Fujimori Sr. had he not hid in a oil barrel.