Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

[ag]

One thing I noticed about the last few Peru elections is that in the elections 2001 2006 2011 the second place finisher of the previous election goes on the win the next one.  Toledo for coming in second in 2000 and then winning 2001.  García for coming in second 2001 followed by winning in 2006.  Humala for coming in second 2006 followed by winning in 2011.      If so then 2016 looks very good for Keiko Fujimori especially when she is currently the front runner anyway.

I know a lot of Peruvians who would be flabbergasted.

[ag]

One thing I noticed about the last few Peru elections is that in the elections 2001 2006 2011 the second place finisher of the previous election goes on the win the next one.  Toledo for coming in second in 2000 and then winning 2001.  García for coming in second 2001 followed by winning in 2006.  Humala for coming in second 2006 followed by winning in 2011.      If so then 2016 looks very good for Keiko Fujimori especially when she is currently the front runner anyway.

I know a lot of Peruvians who would be flabbergasted.

Well, I tend to back the Fujimori clan in Peru all things equal.  Of course as a Chinese guy it is hard not to back someone called "El Chino."

I do not know any Peruvians of this persuasion. And I know many Peruvians

[ag]

Its pretty sad how low down in the polls former Presidents Toledo and Garcia are.

Is it, though? I can't say I'm all that surprised. Toledo barely ever cracked the 30s in approval ratings after his first year in office, and Garcia, well, people are sick of him.

I think Peru should abolish term limits or enshrine absolute ones. It is rather annoying to see the same show of failed ex-Presidentes every year. Humala or his wife will probably end up running in 2020.

Peruvians forget to easy.

It is not surprising given their track record but it is pretty sad. No idea why they are running only to do this badly.

"Track record" has nothing to do with it. Toledo's term was full of great successes for Peruvian economy - and he ended it extremely unpopular. Garcia had an awful first term and a very decent second. If "track record" had anything to do with political success in Peru, he would have never had a second term at all (his first was an unmitigated disaster), but, having gotten it, would have had much better chances now (his last term was pretty decent on most measures).  If anything, Peruvian voters seem to like disastrous presidencies and hate success stories.

[ag]

Final Ipsos poll bad PPK ahead  50.4 to 49.6.

I'm going to hope that is the outlier.

Praying it is, actually, true.

[ag]

FUJIMORI, KUCZYNSKI STATISTICALLY TIED IN PERU VOTE: EXIT POLL

not surprising

GFK exits: PPK 51.2%, Fujimori 48.8%!

Praying it holds.

[ag]

CPI exits favor Fujimori

Fujimori 51.1%
PPK 48.9%

Long night.

[ag]

Usual question about which website to check?

ONPE will have the oficial results at some point, but nothing, yet.

[ag]

First results (around 30% of the total) should be in around 9 PM Peru time (same as Central Time in the US).

[ag]

According to this results will start coming in after 10:00 PM EST.

Yep, this is what ONPE is promising. 2 comments ago I have pointed this out

[ag]

36.1% of the vote counted.  PPK ahead 50.6-49.4

If this holds, this is going to be Austria all over again!

Cannot say I am unhappy

[ag]

Where are y'all getting results from?

ONPE has just issued a report on the first 36%. It is supposed to be a random sample of precincts and is on every Peruvian webpage. Check here

http://elcomercio.pe/elecciones-2016-resultados-flash

[ag]

So the regions are fully counted but the total vote isn't? Huh?

It is a random sample accross the country. Each precinct fills out the acta, but recording these things officially and adding them up is a complicated process. Basically, they chose which 36% of the actas to count first. Of course, if a precinct goofs up and is late, nothing can be done about it. So, in theory, the results can still change.

Actually, the oficial results are here

https://resultadoselecciones2016.onpe.gob.pe/PRP2V2016/Resumen-GeneralPresidencial.html#posicion

[ag]

Ok, I understand. Thanks ag!

Actually, I still do not. The sample is anything but random. Some places, it seems, are far ahead in reporting than others. I do not know if they did some other adjustment in doing the sample.

[ag]

Ok, I understand. Thanks ag!

Actually, I still do not. The sample is anything but random. Some places, it seems, are far ahead in reporting than others. I do not know if they did some other adjustment in doing the sample.

It's a rather strange system that is ripe for fraud, actually.

nah, does not help frad at all.

[ag]

51.7% reporting. Results unchanged.

[ag]

88% reporting.
PPK 50.52%
KF 49.48%

[ag]

neoliberal and right wing populist (she's not a neofascist)

She, herself, may be not a fascist, but neither I would call her a liberal, or even a neoliberal. Fujimoris have no respect for the liberal limitations on the authority of the state.

[ag]

The margin is just over 100,000 votes now, and 9% of actas left (if one includes those with incosistencies). Still too close to call. Praying for PPK.

[ag]

The margin is just over 100,000 votes now, and 9% of actas left (if one includes those with incosistencies). Still too close to call. Praying for PPK.

There are still the overseas votes to count as well.

That includes the overseas precincts. 94.78% of domestic precincts have been counted.

[ag]

PPK vote lead shrings to around 120K.  Most likely he will win but it will be very close.

More like 103K.

[ag]

Looks like the vote counting has stopped.  I guess it will be hours if not days before we find out for sure who won.

They are reporting in large chunks at rare intervals. Remember, the first report was 36%.

[ag]

Difference between recorded and processed is likely mostly due to illegible/badly filled out/ otherwise difficult actas. These can be from anywhere.

[ag]

My family is beside themselves with joy that Fujimori lost.

I am with them!