Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

[RodPresident]

Great to see yet another Foro de São Paulo candidate sinking without trace.

Better a Foro de Sao Paulo candidate than la hija de un dictador.

Neither Foro de Sao Paulo, neither Keiko will win. Acuña will get late surge and get a place in run-off.

[RodPresident]

Acuña was barred from election, as Julio Guzmán (young moderate hero) who was 2nd in polls. And government candidate Daniel Urresti is out too. Now, who is having momentum is Alfredo Barnechea, from traditional AP. He started political career in APRA, split with first Garcia government, supported Vargas Llosa and is in political comeback. Left-wing Verónika Mendoza is in a good position too.
Predictions for run-off scenarios:
KF vs. PPK - Leans KF
KF vs. García - Toss-up
KF vs. Barnechea - Likely Barnechea
KF vs. Mendoza - Likely KF

[RodPresident]

I think PPK could surge actually. I don't know where you get that Barnechea has any momentum, though.

By polls in Spanish wikipedia. Latest poll from Datum:
MoE: +/- 2.8%
KF: 37%
PPK: 14%
Barnechea: 9%
Mendoza: 8%
Garcia: 7%
Toledo: 1%
Others: 6%
Spoiled: 6%
Undecided: 12%
PPK is in a clear 2nd, but he's unsafe. And Brazil problems are spilling on Peru.

[RodPresident]

Garcia + Flores are in a very shameful position for people who get a good voting in last two Presidential elections.
Mendoza's problem is that she would get smashed at any runoff. Maybe she get some loan voters from KF in order to put weaker candidate in runoff.
New poll by Voxpopuli http://larepublica.pe/impresa/politica/755759-alfredo-barnechea-empata-segundo-lugar-con-kuczynski-en-encuesta-de-vox-populi
Keiko: 31.2%
Kuczynski: 14.1%
Barnechea: 12.9%
Mendoza: 10.9%
Garcia: 7.3%
Runoff scenarios
PPK vs. KF: 47.1% to 35.9%
AB vs. KF: 44.6% to 39.1%
KF vs. VM: 41.9% to 37.6%  

[RodPresident]

Congressional elections show that much of Mendoza votes are Keiko loan votes looking for a weaker candidate in runoff. PPK coalition is more coherent, but he gained a lot of loan votes. And Acuña is a kingmaker with 11 seats. Mendoza in runoff probably will stay neutral as PPK is the candidate of traditional Peruvian oligarchy and Keiko has all of Fujimori baggage.