Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

[Simfan34]

There will be a presidential election in Peru on 10th of April, 2016. It appears that Peruvian presidential elections take place on the 2nd Sunday in April, and I don't know if that's changed, but am assuming it has not. Incumbent President Ollanta Humala is term-limited and as such cannot run for re-election. And that's just as well, because he isn't doing all too well.

Now, I know fairly little about Peruvian politics (compared to what others here probably know and what I know about other countries' politics), but people seem interested to discuss this so I've opened this thread- and I hope those more informed will provide the insights I cannot. Thus I warn you that much of what I'll say about what the Peruvian electorate may or may not think is pure conjecture. Now, as I wrote elsewhere,

Humala's flailing performance would seem to make Keiko a shoo-in, but, as I know he's not up for re-election and that the fact Peru does not have a two party system means that her main opponent would not necessarily have to defend Humala's record. She still might get a "I-told-you-so" boost of sorts, then again people genuinely worried that Humala would turn out to be a "21st century socialist" in the mold of Correa, Chavez or Kirchner (if I remember correctly, the Lima Stock Exchange had the worst trading day in its history when he was elected), which lead to the highly polarized election in 2011, but may be baggage her opponent does not carry.

I actually would probably have to backtrack on my pronunciation of Keiko as a "shoo-in", for there are, after all, multiple parties bound to run multiple candidates, to say the least.

[Simfan34]

Those rivals being:

Popular Force (Fuerza Popular) (National conservative, "Fujimorist")

My inexpert mind is tempted to write off the Fuerza Popular as merely being the personalist electoral vehicle of Keiko Fujimori- daughter of former President/dictator Alberto Fujimori- but the free market conservatism known as "Fujimorism" is clearly subscribed to by many Peruvians and the party  is undoubtedly the largest right-of-center force in Peruvian politics. Indeed, they are the second largest party in Parliament.

Keiko Fujimori will obviously be their candidate, and will benefit from both having lost to a candidate whose presidency has turned out rather badly, and from what I assume will be an ability to present an ideological break from the kinds of policies that have bogged Humala down. However, her strong performance in 2011 was in large part due from the Humala's polarizing nature as a seemingly far-leftist-- she probably being even more polarizing. As a result, she might fail to attract the same level of support against a more established figure like Garcia and Kuczynski.

Peru Wins (Gana Perú) (Democratic socialist, [ethnic] nationalist)

The ruling coalition, which will probably change its name if not membership for the next election, comprises a number of left-wing parties, first and foremost the Nationalist Party, of which Humala is member, which mixes revolutionary socialism with a nationalism heavily derived from country's Inca heritage, largely directed towards the Quechua people who make up the bulk of Peru's indigenous population, which accounts for about 2/5ths of the population. The other members of the coalition are standard socialist and communist parties- the Socialist Party, the Communist Party, and so forth- with a large ex-military element.

The thing is, however, despite this alliance, Humala has not turned out to be a Peruvian Evo Morales, and has instead governed rather moderately. Which, it seems, has not gone too well for him- he's gone through 6 prime ministers and is currently sitting at around 25% approval. Thus his coalition does not seem well position to win in 2016. Indeed, both of its two most likely candidates- former Interior Minister and retired general Daniel Urresti, and Nadine Heredia, Humala's wife- are currently besmirched in scandal, the former accused of killing a journalist in the 1990s and the latter for money laundering.

APRA - Peruvian Aprista Party (Partido Aprista Peruano) (Social democratic)

The APRA (which means "American Popular Revolutionary Alliance") is one of the oldest political parties in Peru, originally founded as a socialist revolutionary movement in the 1920s. Like many such parties, it has moderated its views towards social-democracy. Despite its longevity, the fortunes of the APRA seems to have become rather closely linked to that of former President Alan Garcia, who served two non-consecutive terms as President- in 2006 when he was elected a second time, it won 36 seats in the Congress, while in 2011, when it did not field a candidate, it won just 6.

Thus, unsurprisingly, it seems that they are looking to Alan Garcia to run for yet another term. And it seems that he is very much interested, having said such as far back as 2008. While his first stint in the '80s was marred by hyperinflation and unrest- paving the way for Fujimori's rise to power- his second saw rapid economic growth and stability. This would make him a very strong contender- and he would only be 66 next year- but the last years of his second term were marred by several scandals and political defeats (which contributed to their poor performance in the legislative elections and non-performance presidentially). He reportedly has enlisted Hernando de Soto- who advised Fujimori on economic policy- as an adviser, which suggests he will tack even further to the middle

The following profiles need some work:

Peru Possible (Perú Posible) (Liberal, centrist)

The party of Alejandro Toledo, president from 2001 to 2006, who ran in 2011 and may run yet again, either way is likely to field its own candidate.

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (Independent, center-right Christian democrat)

Capable administrator and technocrat, but with an American wife, American passport, and former career as an American investment banker, is ill-suited to gain the support of the wider population outside of the urban elite. The coalition backing him- which may or may not re-form- has 12 seats in parliament.


Overall I'd say it's likely to go down to Garcia and Keiko. And therein lies the challenge. Keiko can count on the support of support of the urban middle class, and can count out the support of most indigenous peoples- they having often been targeted during her father's war against the Shining Path. But Fujimori's and Garcia's coalitions seem to have largely overlapped (both Fujimoris), as both drew the bulk of their support in prior elections from the mestizo majority. Humala won with the support of poorer mestizos, but he had strong support from indigenous groups, something Garcia will likely not have, at least to such a degree. This will require closer analysis of prior results and ethnic voting patterns- so if anyone knows more than I, please share!

[Simfan34]

Maybe I conceded too much in regards to Keiko's chances, as this Ipsos-El Comercio poll released April 19th would suggest:

Fujimori Kuczynski Garcia Toledo Urresti Acuna Canseco Others NOTA Don't know

32% 14% 11% 7% 6% 3% 2% 10% 7% 8%

[Simfan34]

Erm, so it's looking like Keiko might be barred as well...

[Simfan34]

Okay, this is turning into a s--tshow. PPK may be disqualified as well, also for giving out prizes.