Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

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New poll from Datum/Peru21



On the right is the %s without residual votes and undecideds.

Good for Mendoza! She is now fighting for second place

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The problem in Peru is not that the people are fools and like candidates with bad records or they forget too easy. As a peruvian told to my dad, they vote against candidates. For example, in 2006 they voted for Alan Garcia (I still remember listening they day after his victory on Radio Cooperativa when they said "Alan Garcia elected as president, after destroying the country in the 80's") to avoid a Ollanta Humala's government (I remember those times and he was a very extreme candidate strongly influenced by his father). During the last half of the 2000's he moderated his rhetoric to appeal to broader electorate and the people voted for him because they were afraid of Keiko Fujimori (Mario Vargas Llosa said in 2011 that the runoff between Humala and Fujimori was like to choice between Cancer and AIDS but he voted for Humala because he hated the Fujimoris).

Is very sad for peruvians to have this kind of politics as there's no strong left or right wing coalition to support, just very narcissistic politicians that run every 4 years.

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https://resultadoselecciones2016.onpe.gob.pe

You can check the results here (is in spanish, but I believe is relatively easy to use the site).

The results for Chile (with 93.49% percent of the vote reported) it is:

Fujimori                   52.21% (15,616 votes)
PPK                          16.25% (4,861)
Vero Mendoza           14,43% (4,315)
Barnechea                6.01%   (1,797)
Garcia                      5.95%   (1,779)

Fujimori performed great (sadly but expected) in Chile. You can see the results by city, so if you wanna  know how the peruvians near you voted you can check on the site (I think the result is by consulate).

As I read in El Comercio, a congresswoman from Fuerza Popular (Cecilia Chacón) just said that Alberto Fujimori's trial should be nullified so he can exit "through the big door". So it begins.

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Santos' support must have been crazy localized if he only won 4% nationwide but still placed first in Cajamarca...

He is Cajamarca's governor (although he is in Jail) and apparently he is seen like a hero there because he opposed many Mining projects in the department (particularly Conga project).

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As I read in El Comercio, a congresswoman from Fuerza Popular (Cecilia Chacón) just said that Alberto Fujimori's trial should be nullified so he can exit "through the big door". So it begins.

What exactly is this implying? He's going to kick the bucket, go to another country, or gain power again?

PPK seems to be in favor of house arrest for Alberto, which I think is a fair compromise given his advanced age, if you don't want to pardon him.

"Salir a traves de la puerta grande" means to retire like a hero.

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Well, as you can see, the peruvian left is very strong in southern Peru and Santos is still very popular in that group. You probably don't know but in Peru there is a lot of problem in the mining sector, specially between the companies/government and local communities (this is in fact one reason Humala is deeply unpopular). Santos is (or was) an icon in the left because his stance against mining companies. Besides that, in Puno there's a big issue with illegal mining. That third place show that he was a strong politician before sent to prison.

PD: Peru's mining GDP is growing at annual rates of 25% approx (if I'm not wrong, the growth in 2015 of the economy was 3%). This is because there are a lot of projects that were stalled because of clashes and trials).

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Result by district



source: wikipedia

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Final Ipsos poll bad PPK ahead  50.4 to 49.6.

I'm going to hope that is the outlier.

Praying it is, actually, true.

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Also, of the overseas vote, most of Asian isn't in yet (no more than 12 votes), and if the primary and the previous election is any reflection, she'll win it big.

She's winning America as well, 52-47 with over half in.

How is that possible? I fully expected the less "authoritarian" candidate to win internationally. I imagine Keiko's ethnicity might play a role in Asia (though I won't pretend to know anything about these dynamics in Peruvian society), but elsewhere?

I think you're thinking about it the wrong way. International Peruvians don't usually make up a unique constituency and so I don't think you can think of them unanimously in any direction.

How are internationals ever representative for their countries? We're almost always talking about people who, by definition, have more "global connections" and are more well-off.

Peruvians in chile are mainly people from poor rural parts of the country, are many are strong fujimori supporters. For example, my boss' maid is peruvian and all her family voted for Keiko because of her father's 'strong antiterrorist stance'. I believe is the same in Argentina, and those countries represent a third of the overseas vote.