Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

[Velasco]

I like how Fujimori's party, Fuerza 2011, has as its logo just the letter K.



Just to show who is the boss of this party, Kieko Fujimori.

Is Keiko a Kirchnerista?

[Velasco]

Demonstrations against Keiko Fujimori in Lima and other places

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/06/peru-anti-fujimori-protests-days-ahead-of-elections

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Keiko Fujimori 40.8%

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 19.9%

Veronika Mendoza 18.4%

Adolfo Barnechea 9.4%

Alan Garcia 6.3%

Gregorio Santos 2.2%

Others 3%

Possible runoffs:

KF vs PPK: PPK 43% / KF 41%

KF vs VM: KF 45% / VM 39%

KF vs AB: KF 45% / AB 38%

KF vs AG: KF 50% / AG 18%

http://www.ipsos.pe/sites/default/files/opinion_data/OpinionData030416.pdf

[Velasco]

Spain (74.6% counted,, valid votes)

Fuerza Popular (Keiko) 12471 (36.52%)
PPK 8390 (24.57%)
Frente Amplio (Veronika) 4831 (14.15%)
Acción Popular  (Barnechea) 4317 (12.64%)
APRA (Alan Garcia) 2016 (5.90%)
Frente Esperanza 1184 (3.47%)
Perú Posible  (Toledo) 388 (1.14%)
Democracia Directa (Santos) 218 (0.64%)
Progresando Perú 203 (0.59%)
Partido Orden 134 (0.39%)

[Velasco]

What's the voting system for Parliament? It's pretty awful that FP won a majority with just 36% of the votes.

I think it is a PR system where seats are allocated by region so there are de facto thresholds for regions with small number of seats which in turn rewards the largest party which is expected to pass the threshold in every region.

No. They use preferential voting.

The article 21 of the LOE, modified by means of the Law N. ° 29403, indicates that the election of Congressmembers is realized by means of the system of the multiple constituency, with double preferential optional vote, except in the constituencies with less than two Congressmembers, in which case there is a single preferential optional vote. Likewise, the territory of the Republic is divided in twenty-six (26) constituencies, one (1) by every department, and the remaining districts corresponding to Lima Provinces and to the Constitutional Province of the Callao; and voters abroad are considered inside the constituency of Lima (Metropolitan).

http://portal.jne.gob.pe/procesoselectorales/Informacion%20Electoral/Elecciones%20Generales%202016/AcuerdosResoluciones/RES%200287-2015-JNE%20-%20Congresistas%20n%C3%BAmero%20cuota%20designados_CON%20LEY%20NO%20PROMULGADA.pdf

[Velasco]

So far, the count for Congress is at 81%. According to Wikipedia, the allocation of seats is as follows:

Fuerza Popular 73 seats (36%)

Frente Amplio 20 seats (14.1%)

PPK 18 seats (16.4%)

Alianza para el Progreso 9 seats (9.4%)

APRA 5 seats (8.4%)

Acción Popular 5 seats (7.2%)

Democracia Directa 0 seats (4.4%)

Perú Posible 0 seats (2.3%)

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_parlamentarias_de_Per%C3%BA_de_2016#Resultados

[Velasco]

The last Ipsos poll, released on Sunday, estimates the following:

PPK 44%, Keiko Fujimori 40%, Blank/Invalid 10%, Don't Answer 6%

Keiko Fujimori has 42% of 'anti-vote' (people who definitely will not vote for her), while 36% will vote definitely for her, 11% could vote for her, 7% likely won't vote for her and 4% don't answer.

PPK has 32% of 'anti-vote', 34% will vote definitely for him, 19% could vote for him, 8% likely won't vote for him and 7% don't answer.

Analysts quoted by La República remark that the anti-Fujimori feeling won't be enough for PPK. Kuczynski, whose base of support lies on the most affluent sectors (A and B), must find the way to attract the vote of the less affluent sectors of the population (C,D and E) and the rural areas. As well, he should address the demands of the Central and South Andean regions that voted for Verónika Mendoza in the first round. Pollster Hernán Chaparro says that reinforcing the role of his vicepresidential candidate Martín Vizcarra, a former governor of the Moquegua region, could be a "positive aspect" in order to place an agenda with concrete measures that empowers those regions, traditionally neglected by Lima elites.

Other recommendation is that PPK should debate with Keiko Fujimori in sectoral debates on key issues such as economy, security and healthcare. Political analyst Jorge Nieto says that the daughter of Alberto Fujimori loses debates when she has to perform without a screenplay.

However others say (read it in El Comercio) that PPK should not play a strong anti-Fujimori card, given that the Fujimori crowd has a majority in the Congress and the candidate will have to deal with them in case of being elected. People thinking in that way consider that most of the supporters of Mendoza, Barnechea and the other first round candidates will vote for PPK anyway as the lesser evil. Given that PPK himself supported Keiko Fujimori in 2011, he might not be very credible in the role of Anti-Fujimori champion.

Verónika Mendoza and Frente Amplio, on the other hand, are not going to endorse PPK (who is in their ideological antipodes) unconditionally. Anyway, Mendoza stated to La República that she is willing to talk with PPK and said that the option represented by Keiko Fujimori is the worst choice for the second round. She demands that PPK must explain what are the differences between him and her opponent, as well to acknowledge that the Fujimori regime was the most nefarious thing in the country's recent history, a dictatorship which undermined human rights (besides widespread corruption).

It seems that FA will campaign against the Fujimori crowd without endorsing PPK explicitly. Paraphrasing a famous Mario Vargas Llosa statement in the 2011 election, this second round is like to pick between AIDS and Cancer for the Peruvian Left.

Julio Guzmán, the centrist candidate dismissed by the Electoral Court who was well placed in polls, will fix his position for the second round on Wednesday.

In other news Marco Miyashiro, a former police officer allegedly involved in the abduction of 6 people in Huánuco (Central Perú) back in 1984, will likely be elected as Congressman in the Fuerza Popular ticket. Parliamentary immunity could prevent that Miyashiro appears in court.

[Velasco]

Has the other candidates taken any positions before the second round i.e., Popular Action   and Alfredo Barnechea, Popular Alliance    (APRA and PPC) and Alan García, Direct Democracy and Gregorio Santos    and Hope Front   and Fernando Olivera?!

By the moment all I know is that PPK stated that he's going to take into account a Barnechea's proposal on the national gas production, which currently is exported to Mexico at a very low price while local population has to pay more for the same good.

The Popular Alliance got a disastrous result in this election. The main party in this alliance, Alan García's APRA, is right now facing internal crisis. García announced that he's going to quit from party's chairmanship and many leading figures make calls for renewal. Also, some of those leading figures consider that the party should not endorse any candidate and be ready to cooperate with the next president, providing that he or she protects labour rights.

PPK said that he wanted to talk with Gregorio Santos, in order to know his reasons to be against the mining policies Mr Kuczynski supports. Santos rejected the offer.

Alejandro Toledo got a result even worse than that of Alan García and is a political corpse.

Fernando Olivera has already endorsed PPK, if I'm not wrong.


CPI poll

Keiko Fujimori 43.6%, PPK 41.5%, Blank/invalid 9.1%, Don't answer 5.8%

[Velasco]

It all comes down to how the left will vote. Garcia and Santos have a chance to be important.

The main issue here is not how many endorsements gets PPK. Rather, the challenge is how PPK is going to convey a convincing message for all the sectors of the population and regions where he got little support in the first round. The party system is broken since the Fujimori days. Ironically, Keiko's FP is the only organization with a solid infrastructure throughout the country (and they have money!). Keiko's machine has conveyed an efficient populist message that a good part of the population is ready to buy, as well the Fujimori crowd has built a patronage network. The rest of party candidates and machines have little influence in Peruvian electorate. Actually, there are not parties worthy of that name in Perú.

Fujimori's legacy provokes rejection in many people; likely they are a majority of the population. However, what is going to do PPK in order to rally all the anti-Fujimori feeling behind him? The candidate is far from raising enthusiasm in the people who is against the Fujimori clan. In case he manages to win, which is a very difficult task, the reason will be that a majority is very afraid to see Keiko and her organization taking absolute power. FP has already a majority of the Congress and there is a recent past of despotism and arbitrariness in the Fujimori regime. On the other hand, both PPK and Keiko support similar economic policies and there is a perceived risk of a rollback in social rights. Despite economic growth, lower unemployment and an increase in average income, there are still areas of great poverty and underdevelopment. The State has failed in providing basic services such as healthcare and water supply systems.

[Velasco]

Which parties supporter Fujimori and Ollanta in the second round 2011?! I know that PPK supporter Fujimori...

As a remainder, the results for the main candidates in 2011 first round were the following:

Ollanta Humala (Gana Perú) 31.7%
Keiko Fujimori  (Fuerza 2011) 23.6%
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (Alianza por el Gran Cambio) 18.5%
Alejandro Toledo (Perú Posible) 15.6%   
Luis Castañeda (Solidaridad Nacional)   9.8%

As for the candidates, Kuczynsky and Castañeda backed Keiko Fujimori. Alejandro Toledo backed Ollanta Humala, warning about the dangers of a comeback of Fujimori's authoritarianism.

As for the parties, the Alejandro Toledo's party Perú Posible was willing to cooperate with Humala's Nationalist Party. Former members of the Toledo administration were already working with the Humala team. In the Congress, the 47 members of the Nationalist Party and the 21 of Perú Posible added a majority.

The Alliance for the Big Change (Alianza por el Gran Cambio) was divided. Presidential candidate Pedro Pablo Kuczynsky endorsed Keiko Fujimori, firstly implicitly and later explicitly. The Christian People's Party (PPC) didn't endorse any candidate, but Lourdes Flores was implicitly favourable to Fujimori. The Alliance for Progress and the Humanist Party endorsed Humala, while the evangelical party National Restoration backed Keiko.

The party of the former Mayor of Lima Luis Castañeda (National Solidarity) backed Fujimori.

Finally, the Alan García's APRA didn't run in the presidential election and I think it didn't make an official endorsement. García was accused of implicit support of Keiko by Gana Perú, but (by then) acting president denied charges.

Writer and former presidential candidate Mario Vargas Llosa (defeated by Alberto Fujimori in 1990) endorsed Humala, albeit the Nobel Prize stated at first that picking between Humala and Fujimori was like to pick between AIDS and terminal cancer. As a result, Vargas Llosa had an argument with the influential Archbishop of Lima Juan Luis Cipriani. The latter is a supporter of the Alberto Fujimori administration and has denied crimes and human rights abuses occurring in that period (notoriously La Cantuta massacre, committed by members of the Army Intelligence Service and the infamous Grupo Colina)

[Velasco]

Sorry for the probably dumb question, but why did the Peruvian left collapse so badly compared to 2011? Is Humala very unpopular?

It's not a dumb question, but it's not easy to answer as I'm not an expert in Peruvian politics. Anyway, Perú is a rather conservative country in the Latin American context and the left has been virtually disappeared for 30 years. Prior to the Fujimori's breakdown there was a coalition led by the Communist Party called United Left (Izquierda Unida, IU) that won the Lima mayoralty in 1983 and placed second in the 1985 election, behind Alan García and the APRA party (a socialdemocratic force, on paper). The first tenure of Alan García was disastrous and in the following election held in 1990 Alberto Fujimori surged like a hurricane, boosted by social unrest. Among the causes: crumbling economy, unfulfilled promises, discredit of the political establishment... and a peak in the Shining Path terrorist offensive. APRA fell from 53.1% in 1985 to 22.5% in 1990 and the IU from 24.7% to 8.2%. The favourite in the 1990 race was Mario Vargas Llosa, heading the centre-right FREDEMO alliance, but he was swept away by the Fujimori's tide.

Certainly Ollanta Humala came from the left, but he is a national-populist and not a Marxist. He placed first in the first round of the 2006 election, but his alignment with Hugo Chávez did not help him in the second. In 2011 his coalition Gana Perú included the Communist Party and other leftist organisations, by that time rather marginal. Anyway Humala took distance from Chávez and approached Lula, who borrowed him campaign advisers. Between the first and the second round Humala already turned to the right, committed himself to not alter the economic policies of previous administrations and obtained the support of Alejandro Toledo and Mario Vargas Llosa.

The Humala administration has a very low approval rate. I think that at this moment is more close to 10% than 20%. During his tenure, economic growth has slowed down. Despite official rhetoric emphasizing a commitment to reduce poverty and income inequality, according to local media social programs and projects have proved rather ineffective. Also, there are some scandals surrounding the Humala administration and the Peruvian Nationalist Party. Brazilian police is investigating an alleged case of bribe to Humala by the Odebrecht engineering and construction enterprise, in a 3 M dollar amount and in connection with the Lava Jato affair.  His wife Nadine Heredia, who is also the chairwoman of the PNP, is being investigated on some stolen notebooks which allegedly have evidence of irregular party funding. Regarding that scandal, a Commission of the Peruvian Congress has found signs of money laundering and tax evasion. The PNP withdrew its presidential candidate and didn't run lists for the Congress, probably to prevent an electoral catastrophe.

In this context is rather remarkable the result of Verónika Mendoza, who was elected in 2011 Congresswoman for Cuzco in the Gana Perú list (the PNP-led coalition). There is merit in rising from nothing to nearly 19% of the national vote. In all likelihood the result is more attributable to her personal skills and charisma than to her coalition. She looks like a promising candidate for the 2021 election.

[Velasco]

On paper APRA was social democratic, but under Garcia it was substantially to the left of that. He nationalized banks among various other services to poor effect.

Fujimori campaigned as more leftist than he governed, though. APRA and Garcia openly supported him in 1990 against Vargas Llosa, who was seen as far too draconian in his economic shock ideas, even though Fujimori later took similar policies from a think tank and used them in his government.

Obviously you are talking about García 's first tenure and his erratic measures of that period, because if I'm not wrong he turned into a tamed 'Third Wayer' in his comeback

Anyway there is consensus on his disastrous performance in late 80s and I had the idea that in 1990 Fujimori campaigned more to the left than his policies once in power, thus supporters of APRA and the IU preferred him over Vargas Llosa.

I must admit that I find the APRA party rather weird and know little about its history and ideological developments. You shouldn't get fooled by the word 'Revolutionary', Willips. It's quite common in Latín American parties, sometimes accompanied by 'Institutional', which sounds contradictory at best. I mean, in many cases party names are meaningless and say nothing about the ideology of the organization. Do you want examples with 'Liberal' or 'Progressive', for instance?

[Velasco]

What's the voting system for Parliament? It's pretty awful that FP won a majority with just 36% of the votes.

I think it is a PR system where seats are allocated by region so there are de facto thresholds for regions with small number of seats which in turn rewards the largest party which is expected to pass the threshold in every region.

No. They use preferential voting.

The article 21 of the LOE, modified by means of the Law N. ° 29403, indicates that the election of Congressmembers is realized by means of the system of the multiple constituency, with double preferential optional vote, except in the constituencies with less than two Congressmembers, in which case there is a single preferential optional vote. Likewise, the territory of the Republic is divided in twenty-six (26) constituencies, one (1) by every department, and the remaining districts corresponding to Lima Provinces and to the Constitutional Province of El Callao; and voters abroad are considered inside the constituency of Lima (Metropolitan).

http://portal.jne.gob.pe/procesoselectorales/Informacion%20Electoral/Elecciones%20Generales%202016/AcuerdosResoluciones/RES%200287-2015-JNE%20-%20Congresistas%20n%C3%BAmero%20cuota%20designados_CON%20LEY%20NO%20PROMULGADA.pdf

Ah. Thanks for clearing that up.

Finally I found out the voting system is PR D'Hondt with double preferential optional vote, except in constituencies with only one seat. The seats of every constituency are distributed through a quotient system among the parties or coalitions that exceed the 5% threshold nationwide. Then, the seats are distributed among the candidates of every list according to preferences.

In this election FP came first with 24% of the votes cast and 36% of the valid votes. Blank and invalid votes exceeded 33%. The fragmentation of the vote among the rest of the parties has favoured the Keiko Fujimori group. FP more than doubled the second party nationwide. All constituencies but Metropolitan Lima elect between 1 and 7 seats. In certain constituencies FP won all seats in play (Lima provinces, Amazonas, Pasco, Madre de Dios).

Cajamarca is a curious case. Democracia Directa, the party of Gov Gregorio Santos, won the parliamentary election. However, DD didn't surpass the 5% threshold nationwide and didn't win seats. The 6 seats of the Cajamarca constituency were distributed among the rest of parties. FP came second and won 4 seats in the region, while APP and the FA won 1 seat each.

As for endorsements, Alfredo Barnechea won't support any candidate because he sees no difference between PPK and Keiko on economic policies.

Julio Guzmán, who is leaving Todos por Perú in order to establish his own party, stated that he will vote for Kuczynski. Guzmán says that he doesn't share the "neoliberal" views of PPK, but he loathes Fujimori's "authoritarianism" more. He thinks a victory of Keiko would worse the situation, creating an excessive concentration of power without checks and balances.

 

[Velasco]

"As for endorsements, Alfredo Barnechea won't support any candidate because he sees no difference between PPK and Keiko on economic policies."

He's trying to be a left-winger now?

I think the question here is that Keiko and PPK are very right-wing on what they call the economic "model". From the little that I know about their platforms, Barnechea has more common ground with Mendoza. Guzmán and the candidate of Acción Popular are placed on the centre in the Peruvian politics. Basically, the choice in the second ground for people left of the centre is between a populistic and allegedly authoritarian right-winger and an orthodox (neo) liberal right-winger.

[Velasco]

The FP majority in the Congress presents a worrying aspect in what concerns the legal situation of the former president Fujimori senior, aka Chinochet. Alberto Fujimori petitioned for a writ of habeas corpus, in order to annul the judgement that sentenced him to 25 years of imprisonment for crimes against humanity. It's feared that the Fujimorista bench will put pressure on the members of the Constitutional Court, whom are elected by Congress. The term of one of the court members is expired and the Fujimoristas will want to appoint someone friendly in replacement.

Recently Keiko Fujimori stated that there's no evidence of her father's involvement in La Cantuta and Barrios Altos crimes. Two intervening lawyers and a former attorney replied such statements, clarifying that during the judicial process more than 500 evidence was submitted, proving the facts and Fujimori's responsibility. It was proved during the process that Alberto Fujimori encouraged an anti-subversive strategy that included the selective elimination of people, as it happened in La Cantuta and Barrios Altos massacres. Also, it was proved the connection between Fujimori (through the Chino's aide Vladimiro Montesinos) and the death squad known as Grupo Colina.

On forced sterilizations occurring in that period, the Dean of the Peruvian Official Medical Association stated days ago that in 1997 or 98 he was offered to go to remote areas and perform sterilization surgeries (the Ministry of Health paid 30 dollars for each) . The Dean, by that time a gynaecologist in Trujillo region, said he rejected the offer.  During the Fujimori administration (1990-2000) at least 272 women were sterilized, more than 2000 without consent or by deception, coercion or bribery. Those women had in common being poor, living in remote areas and were mostly of Quechua and Aymara ethnicity. This affair already arose during the 2011 campaign.

[Velasco]

CPI poll, Fujimori 46 PPK 39

Terrible news. PPK will have to fight hard on next Sunday's debate if he wants to have a chance.

[Velasco]

Looks like Mendoza endorsed PPK.

Yes, Veronika Mendoza calls to vote for PPK in order to prevent a comeback of fujimorismo to power. She is concerned by the alleged ties between Keiko's clique and drug traffickers. "Mrs Fujimori is surrounded by people prosecuted for corruption and ties with the narco. And she's not concerned. On what moral authority she will fight crime and drug trafficking? I don't want my sons to live in a country of corruption, drugs and violence; where lying, stealing and killing is normal".

http://larepublica.pe/politica/772127-veronika-mendoza-solo-queda-marcar-por-ppk

[Velasco]

The Governor of Cajamarca Porfirio Medina called to vote for PPK, while his predecessor Gregorio Santos stated on Wednesday that he won't vote for PPK or Keiko. On the other hand, the spokeswoman of the EU electoral mission Renate Weber called Peruvians to not wasting their votes, because it's very important to decide about the future of the country. Also, she stated that black money coming from drug trafficking must not enter in politics.