PPP-IA: Walker +10

[RogueBeaver]

23% to Rubio's 13, Jeb 12, Huck/Rand at 10.

[Gallium]

Walker - 23%
Rubio - 13%
Bush - 12%
Huckabee - 10%
Paul - 10%
Cruz - 8%
Carson - 7%
Christie - 5%
Perry - 4%

Clinton - 62%
Sanders - 14%
O'Malley - 6%
Webb - 3%
Chafee - 2%

[Senator Cris]

Why are they polling the favorability of Santorum, Fiorina and others that are not included in the poll?

[Lief 🗽]

PPP uses automated polling, so they can only poll nine candidates at a time (the numbers of a phone keypad, plus another number for the "Don't Know" option). But they can ask as many questions as they want.

[King]

I'm convinced PPP does not randomize the order. They had Walker winning NH and all the Bs and Cs struggling.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Maybe Jeb and Rubio should follow McCain's footsteps and skip Iowa. If Walker prevails over a bunch of nuts then his momentum will be considerably lower than if had beaten the other establishment favorites.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Page 5 and 6 are incredibly interesting.

Walker is clearly pulling together the conservative coalition while Rubio may wind up with the moderate one based on their own voters' favorability of other candidates and other candidate voters' favorability of them.

Bad news for Christie - I know Iowa doesn't matter for him, but it seems all his supporters are low information voters. 73% have no opinion of Walker, 63% no opinion of Rubio, 53% no opinion of Paul. Those voters are going to be very susceptible to leaving him when they see other options. As much as I have touted Christie, those numbers are concerning. He will have to make major efforts just to hold his position. Tough but doable.

I still believe Bush will fall obviously, but no one stands to gain that much from his current crop of voters. Christie could get a few, but I'm thinking that's mostly regional. Most anyone who likes Rubio has already deserted Bush post-announcement. Huckabee will probably get a lot in the South and Iowa unless he really looks like a fool and is portrayed as such by the media, but he's not a serious candidate.

Also, Rubio voters seem to know and like Walker more than Walker voters know and like Rubio. That seems to be the opposite of what one would expect. Walker is the 2nd choice of 43% of Rubio voters which could help a lot. A Walker-Rubio ticket could really help unite the party if it comes down to those two. Huckabee and Cruz voters also like Walker a ton too which could put him over the top if they realize they have no chance after SC. Toughest thing to do will be to get the Paul voters on board with such a ticket. (Christie fans would come around.)


Also, the few Walker voters who know Snyder dislike him! SSS and all, but so much for him tearing Walker down.

[Eraserhead]

Wow, so the Sanders surge is kinda real after all?

[IceSpear]

Wow, so the Sanders surge is kinda real after all?

Well, PPP thankfully finally dropped Warren. Her support seems to split between Hillary and Sanders.

So this and Loras both show Walker ahead still, looks like Gravis was junk. Big surprise.

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav among their own party:

Clinton 78/16% for +62%
Warren 66/8% for +58%
Biden 71/15% for +56%
Sanders 40/16% for +24%
O'Malley 21/13% for +8%
Webb 17/14% for +3%
Chafee 7/18% for -11%

Walker 59/13% for +46%
Huckabee 57/23% for +34%
Santorum 53/19% for +34%
Rubio 53/20% for +33%
Cruz 52/22% for +30%
Jindal 44/14% for +30%
Perry 50/21% for +29%
Carson 44/15% for +29%
Paul 51/26% for +25%
Fiorina 30/15% for +15%
Kasich 19/13% for +6%
Bush 38/37% for +1%
Trump 40/40% for +/-0
Snyder 4/10% for -6%
Graham 19/30% for -11%
Pataki 7/25% for -18%
Christie 28/50% for -22%

[IceSpear]

Chafee 7/18% for -11%

Looks like Chafee playing the "attack dog" role isn't helping him very much. Could it be that being a useful idiot for the media and allowing them to goad you into attacking Hillary over faux scandals and using Republican talking points has backfired? Say it ain't so! Good job on being unpopular already though, even with 25% name recognition. LOL

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Chafee 7/18% for -11%

Looks like Chafee playing the "attack dog" role isn't helping him very much. Could it be that being a useful idiot for the media and allowing them to goad you into attacking Hillary over faux scandals and using Republican talking points has backfired? Say it ain't so! Good job on being unpopular already though, even with 25% name recognition. LOL

Even Webb is above water.

[Eraserhead]

Chafee will be a non-factor with Sanders jumping in.

[Ebsy]

Chafee will be a non-factor with Sanders jumping in.

He was a non-factor before.

[Adam Griffin]

Chafee 7/18% for -11%

Looks like Chafee playing the "attack dog" role isn't helping him very much. Could it be that being a useful idiot for the media and allowing them to goad you into attacking Hillary over faux scandals and using Republican talking points has backfired? Say it ain't so! Good job on being unpopular already though, even with 25% name recognition. LOL

That's not why he has net negatives. He has net negatives because hardly anybody outside of Atlas Forum has even heard of him, and those who have know him as that milquetoast Yankee weirdo that keeps jumping parties.

[Eraserhead]

Chafee will be a non-factor with Sanders jumping in.

He was a non-factor before.

...

A fair point.

[IceSpear]

Chafee 7/18% for -11%

Looks like Chafee playing the "attack dog" role isn't helping him very much. Could it be that being a useful idiot for the media and allowing them to goad you into attacking Hillary over faux scandals and using Republican talking points has backfired? Say it ain't so! Good job on being unpopular already though, even with 25% name recognition. LOL

That's not why he has net negatives. He has net negatives because hardly anybody outside of Atlas Forum has even heard of him, and those who have know him as that milquetoast Yankee weirdo that keeps jumping parties.

Nobody knows Webb or O'Malley either, and they're not in the negatives. That favorability was just among Democrats.

[PPT Spiral]

Chafee 7/18% for -11%

Looks like Chafee playing the "attack dog" role isn't helping him very much. Could it be that being a useful idiot for the media and allowing them to goad you into attacking Hillary over faux scandals and using Republican talking points has backfired? Say it ain't so! Good job on being unpopular already though, even with 25% name recognition. LOL

That's not why he has net negatives. He has net negatives because hardly anybody outside of Atlas Forum has even heard of him, and those who have know him as that milquetoast Yankee weirdo that keeps jumping parties.

Nobody knows Webb or O'Malley either, and they're not in the negatives. That favorability was just among Democrats.

At this point in the race, with well over 60% not having a solid opinion of any of those three, the approvals mean very little.

[IceSpear]

Chafee 7/18% for -11%

Looks like Chafee playing the "attack dog" role isn't helping him very much. Could it be that being a useful idiot for the media and allowing them to goad you into attacking Hillary over faux scandals and using Republican talking points has backfired? Say it ain't so! Good job on being unpopular already though, even with 25% name recognition. LOL

That's not why he has net negatives. He has net negatives because hardly anybody outside of Atlas Forum has even heard of him, and those who have know him as that milquetoast Yankee weirdo that keeps jumping parties.

Nobody knows Webb or O'Malley either, and they're not in the negatives. That favorability was just among Democrats.

At this point in the race, with well over 60% not having a solid opinion of any of those three, the approvals mean very little.

Again, it would be one thing if all the anonymous people were in the negatives (sometimes that does happen), but it's only Chafee.

[IceSpear]

By the way, here's proof of my assertion in the crosstabs. Favorability scores among Hillary supporters:

Clinton: 96-2
O'Malley: 19-13
Sanders: 34-20
Webb: 15-16
Chafee: 5-21

Another interesting fact is that supporters of all candidates like Hillary besides Webb supporters, who hate her. LOL. Webb supporters for some reason also dislike O'Malley, and Sanders supporters dislike Chafee.

And the second choices of each candidate's supporters:

Clinton: Sanders
O'Malley: Clinton
Sanders: Clinton
Webb: Sanders (literally 0% pick Clinton)
Chafee: Clinton

(Yes, I realize the MoEs on these subsamples with the exception of Hillary supporters are ludicrously high, but it's entertaining regardless)

[Türkisblau]

As a Webb supporter I can corroborate these results.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm convinced PPP does not randomize the order. They had Walker winning NH and all the Bs and Cs struggling.

Through the power of the Google, I dug up this comment from PPP head honcho Tom Jensen back in 2008:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com.au/2008/07/ivr-polling.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[IceSpear]

I'm convinced PPP does not randomize the order. They had Walker winning NH and all the Bs and Cs struggling.

Through the power of the Google, I dug up this comment from PPP head honcho Tom Jensen back in 2008:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com.au/2008/07/ivr-polling.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Stuff like this is why I nominated you for best poster.

[King]

I'm convinced PPP does not randomize the order. They had Walker winning NH and all the Bs and Cs struggling.

Through the power of the Google, I dug up this comment from PPP head honcho Tom Jensen back in 2008:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com.au/2008/07/ivr-polling.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In a field this large, that pretty much moves PPP firmly into joke status. Walker leads every poll they do. There's obviously an effect.