WV-03: Tomblin considering

[free my dawg]

http://wvpublic.org/post/tomblin-says-he-hasnt-decided-possible-congressional-bid

At most his entry would make it Likely R.

[Türkisblau]

He'd have a much easier time going about it if Manchin was at the top of the ticket in 2016, but that's not happening now. I will say that we probably shouldn't underestimate Tomblin, though.

[Maxwell]

Why Jenkins and not Mooney? Mooney almost lost in 2014!

[free my dawg]

Why Jenkins and not Mooney? Mooney almost lost in 2014!

Tomblin would have to carpetbag himself to get to WV-2.

[IceSpear]

Why Jenkins and not Mooney? Mooney almost lost in 2014!

Yeah, I was gonna say why not run against the very weak carpetbagger guy, but it appears Tomblin running there would neutralize that. Still probably a better bet than WV-03 though.

[Free Bird]

Of all things

[Miles]

FWIW, he carried it by 12% in 2012:

[Seattle]

Why Jenkins and not Mooney? Mooney almost lost in 2014!

Yeah, I was gonna say why not run against the very weak carpetbagger guy, but it appears Tomblin running there would neutralize that. Still probably a better bet than WV-03 though.

I think people are forgetting That Tomblin owes both his gubanatorial wins thanks to WV-03, and more his home area in Logan County. IIRC, he got like 90% and then 85% there. If there's anyone who still has deep enough connections to create such turnout- it's him.

Of course, i'm no local, so I have no idea how opinions of Tomblin have evolved since 2012, nor do I know if he no longer has a turnout machine that powerful...

[Ebsy]

I don't think this is as a hopeless run as some of you are making it out to be. It's not like Democrats have a better candidate for the seat.

[Türkisblau]

I don't think this is as a hopeless run as some of you are making it out to be. It's not like Democrats have a better candidate for the seat.

Yep, and if there's any chance to knock Jenkins off it's now.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

The margins of ticket splitting in WV-3 is stunning.

[Maxwell]

I don't think this is as a hopeless run as some of you are making it out to be. It's not like Democrats have a better candidate for the seat.

Yep, and if there's any chance to knock Jenkins off it's now.

I get that - Tomblin is probably the best non-Manchin candidate they have. That being said, Jenkins is a strong candidate - he defeated a very entrenched incumbent by a stronger than expected.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't think this is as a hopeless run as some of you are making it out to be. It's not like Democrats have a better candidate for the seat.

Yep, and if there's any chance to knock Jenkins off it's now.

I get that - Tomblin is probably the best non-Manchin candidate they have. That being said, Jenkins is a strong candidate - he defeated a very entrenched incumbent by a stronger than expected.

Well, it was 2014.

[Maxwell]

I don't think this is as a hopeless run as some of you are making it out to be. It's not like Democrats have a better candidate for the seat.

Yep, and if there's any chance to knock Jenkins off it's now.

I get that - Tomblin is probably the best non-Manchin candidate they have. That being said, Jenkins is a strong candidate - he defeated a very entrenched incumbent by a stronger than expected.

Well, it was 2014.

Even so. Said incumbent has served worse years.

[free my dawg]

I don't think this is as a hopeless run as some of you are making it out to be. It's not like Democrats have a better candidate for the seat.

Yep, and if there's any chance to knock Jenkins off it's now.

I get that - Tomblin is probably the best non-Manchin candidate they have. That being said, Jenkins is a strong candidate - he defeated a very entrenched incumbent by a stronger than expected.

Well, it was 2014.

He survived 2010 by a bigger margin than he lost in 2014. The tide is most likely too strong for Tomblin.

[BaconBacon96]

He's probably the best candidate for that seat.

Also this;

The margins of ticket splitting in WV-3 is stunning.

[NewYorkExpress]

Drop it to Lean R if Tomblin gets in

Tomblin is arguably a stronger candidate than Rahall, largely because he has fewer Congressional ties. That said, Jenkins would remain the favorite, but Tomblin might force both sides to actually spend money here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Theoretically he would be a stronger candidate than Rahall, who was always a little... divisive.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

FWIW, he carried it by 12% in 2012:

If I didn't know any better, I would've guessed that Rahall would've won by 12% just by looking at that map.  He wins all but three counties, yet the election was within single digits. 

[Miles]

^ Actually, Rahall won by 12% in 2010 and carried only one more county then.

Except for part of the southwest, the swing against him was just very uniform between '10 and '12 across the district:

[Fuzzy Bear]

2014 was a cataclysmic year for WV Democrats, in that they lost the state legislature.  This is more than just an anti-Obama backlash; it's the stuff of realignment, as many WV Dems have distanced themselves from Obama. 

Tomblin would be a top-tier challenger to Jenkins, and probably the strongest challenger the Democrats could come up with.  His chances would depend on a number of things, most of which would hinge on what sort of Democrat Hillary Clinton would run as.  Will she be a "coal Democrat"?  Will she support the Keystone Pipeline (a symbolic gesture relevant to WV)?  Or will she be an Obama Democrat on the sort of environment/energy issues that roused the ire of West Virginians to the point where, after 6 years of Obama, the state has become Republican at all levels?

I don't see Tomblin making it.  Jenkins is the incumbent, and a majority-party incumbent, so his advantages are significant.  Aside from labor union issues, most of WV is out of sync with the national Democratic party, so the realignment of WV voters shouldn't really surprise anyone.  WV is a very religious state, with large numbers of Fundamentalists and Pentecostals.  I fail to see why WV would throw out of office a first term incumbent of a party that is the majority in the House and with whose platform (especially on cultural and energy issues) is in sync with the state.