NC-SurveyUSA: Hillary slightly ahead
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  NC-SurveyUSA: Hillary slightly ahead
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Author Topic: NC-SurveyUSA: Hillary slightly ahead  (Read 3039 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: April 29, 2015, 01:21:32 AM »

1070 November 2016 Likely Voters:

45-43 Clinton/Bush
47-43 Clinton/Paul
46-41 Clinton/Rubio
47-42 Clinton/Cruz
48-39 Clinton/Walker

44-42 Clinton/"some other Republican"

...

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http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e12280bf-3fbd-4bb8-876a-b484c2a95cb4
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2015, 01:23:52 AM »

If Hillary wins North Carolina then no way she trails in Virginia.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2015, 01:24:57 AM »

Very good numbers for Clinton. Definitely supports the position that she should invest in the state.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2015, 01:26:49 AM »

If we assume that NC is R+5 in 2016 (after R+6 in 2012 and R+7 in 2008), then this poll here and the Elon poll would indicate that Clinton is roughly ahead by 7% nationally against Bush and 9-10% against Paul/Rubio/Cruz and 14% against Walker.

This would also be in line with other recent state polls.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2015, 01:31:42 AM »

Their best candidate is only losing by two points to Clinton in a Romney state that Republicans absolutely must win. Glorious news for the GOP! Clinton is doomed!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: April 29, 2015, 01:36:30 AM »

So SUSA, PPP, and Elon all more or less agree on Hillary vs. Jeb, showing her up 1-3 points. But the difference between this and PPP on Clinton v. Walker is insane (Hillary up 9 vs. Walker up 3.) The gaps between the two are also pretty big on the other candidates. Interesting.

However, polling likely voters this early is nearly as silly as polling adults. Though you'd think LVs would hurt Hillary...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: April 29, 2015, 01:41:51 AM »

So SUSA, PPP, and Elon all more or less agree on Hillary vs. Jeb, showing her up 1-3 points. But the difference between this and PPP on Clinton v. Walker is insane (Hillary up 9 vs. Walker up 3.) The gaps between the two are also pretty big on the other candidates. Interesting.

However, polling likely voters this early is nearly as silly as polling adults. Though you'd think LVs would hurt Hillary...

MoE movement.

All this indicates is that the swing states are really "swingy" already right now (look at the other polls recently from FL, VA, CO etc.) and Hillary is neither favoured to win nor doomed. Simply everything is possible.

Though you'd think LVs would hurt Hillary...

That has to do with the poll itself:

SUSA polled 1275 adults in NC, of which 1070 described themselves as "likely 2016 voters".

That's 84% of all adults.

That may be right for now, but when the campaign really starts and NC voters are bombarded with ads from Clinton/Bush, they will tune out with disgust and turnout among all adults will be 50-60% on election day. That hurts Clinton.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: April 29, 2015, 01:49:48 AM »

So SUSA, PPP, and Elon all more or less agree on Hillary vs. Jeb, showing her up 1-3 points. But the difference between this and PPP on Clinton v. Walker is insane (Hillary up 9 vs. Walker up 3.) The gaps between the two are also pretty big on the other candidates. Interesting.

However, polling likely voters this early is nearly as silly as polling adults. Though you'd think LVs would hurt Hillary...

MoE movement.

All this indicates is that the swing states are really "swingy" already right now (look at the other polls recently from FL, VA, CO etc.) and Hillary is neither favoured to win nor doomed. Simply everything is possible.

Though you'd think LVs would hurt Hillary...

That has to do with the poll itself:

SUSA polled 1275 adults in NC, of which 1070 described themselves as "likely 2016 voters".

That's 84% of all adults.

That may be right for now, but when the campaign really starts and NC voters are bombarded with ads from Clinton/Bush, they will tune out with disgust and turnout among all adults will be 50-60% on election day. That hurts Clinton.

12 points is MoE?

She's clearly favored to win at the moment, judging from both the national and state polls. Though things can obviously change when the election is still 18 months away.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: April 29, 2015, 01:54:53 AM »

Walker does not have that high of a name recognition in NC right now as Bush does.

So, you might get a poll crowd that knows Walker less than another poll crowd who knows him better.

Because Bush and Clinton are universally known, their margins are not that far apart.

But with Walker it could create a Walker+3 result with one poll crowd and Hillary+9 in another ...
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #9 on: April 29, 2015, 05:17:27 AM »

with Bush, Rubio, Paul, Fiorina, Kasich or Christie NC stays red!!!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2015, 07:38:45 AM »
« Edited: April 29, 2015, 01:06:11 PM by pbrower2a »

Say what you want, but the recorded voice is the right way to do the poll.

...At this point I see no significant difference between the dynamics of recent Presidential elections of recent years and 2016. How the states lined up in 2012:

186 NM 191
191 MI 207
207 MN 217
217 WI 227
227 NV 233
233 IA  239
239 NH 243
243 PA 263
263 CO 272
272 VA 285
285 OH 303
303 FL  332
332 NC 347
347 GA 363
363 AZ 374
374 MO 384
384 IN  395
395 SC 404

Those are states with margins under 11%.

There's a dodgy poll from Missouri, but even that is consistent with Missouri in 2012. PPP will poll Arizona this weekend, which will show whether Arizona has more in common politically with New Mexico than with Texas.  
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« Reply #11 on: April 29, 2015, 07:48:29 AM »

NOPE!!!

AZ isn`t in play

onlyif Carson or Cruz are the nominee but that won`t happen

I think only CO FL IA NH NV OH PA VA are in play 2016
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: April 29, 2015, 11:47:14 AM »

 

...At this point I see no significant difference between the dynamics of recent Presidential elections of recent years and 2016. How the states lined up in 2012:

186 NM 191
191 MI 207
207 MN 217
217 WI 227
227 IA 233
233 IA  239
239 NH 243
243 PA 263
263 CO 272

Those are states with margins under 11%.

There's a dodgy poll from Missouri, but even that is consistent with Missouri in 2012. PPP will poll Arizona this weekend, which will show whether Arizona has more in common politically with New Mexico than with Texas. 
[/quote]

Likely where the race is at now 257-263 Hilary 206 Jeb
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #13 on: April 29, 2015, 11:49:37 AM »
« Edited: April 29, 2015, 11:53:47 AM by SMilo »


Iowa's been getting double-counted? THE FIREWALL IS DOWN! I REPEAT, THE FIREWALL IS DOWN!!!

(I know, you meant NV)
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #14 on: April 29, 2015, 11:50:13 AM »

No surprises here, folks.  If Hillary is nominated, she will win walking away.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: April 29, 2015, 11:54:44 AM »

She will lose NC by the same margin as Obama 47-43.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: April 29, 2015, 12:00:30 PM »

She will lose NC by the same margin as Obama 47-43.
Obama lost it 51-48...
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: April 30, 2015, 10:47:14 AM »

She will lose NC by the same margin as Obama 47-43.
Obama lost it 51-48...

Actually, 50-48. Anyway, while this poll is definitely being kind to Clinton, it would be foolish of Democrats not to at least try to win NC and expand the map (especially with a very tight gubernatorial race and a potentially competitive senate race there.) If Clinton wins any Romney state at all, it'll be NC. Also, LOL Walker.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #18 on: April 30, 2015, 11:04:32 AM »

If we assume that NC is R+5 in 2016 (after R+6 in 2012 and R+7 in 2008), then this poll here and the Elon poll would indicate that Clinton is roughly ahead by 7% nationally against Bush and 9-10% against Paul/Rubio/Cruz and 14% against Walker.

This would also be in line with other recent state polls.

NC is more like R+3 based on 2012
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #19 on: April 30, 2015, 06:13:15 PM »

NC is simply a toss-up right now and Hillary got a pretty big announcement bounce. However, Could you imagine if Virginia somehow went to the Republicans and NC to the Democrats and the GOP therefore lost the election? LOL, it would be an epic fail, as epic as ME-02 voting Republican but NE-02 voting Democratic and therefore handing the Dems the election.

If you think about 1992 and the 2008 primary, it's not as farfetched as it sounds.  The remaining Clinton Coalition Democrats are a much larger share of the population in NC.  And while Clinton can probably get Obama numbers in NOVA, there is a major question of turnout in the other Democratic strongholds.  And if coal country didn't come back for Warner, it won't come back for her.  In short, it's possible to imagine VA and NC being within 1-2% of each other in 2016.     
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fenrir
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« Reply #20 on: May 01, 2015, 01:37:21 PM »

NC is simply a toss-up right now and Hillary got a pretty big announcement bounce. However, Could you imagine if Virginia somehow went to the Republicans and NC to the Democrats and the GOP therefore lost the election? LOL, it would be an epic fail, as epic as ME-02 voting Republican but NE-02 voting Democratic and therefore handing the Dems the election.

If you think about 1992 and the 2008 primary, it's not as farfetched as it sounds.  The remaining Clinton Coalition Democrats are a much larger share of the population in NC.  And while Clinton can probably get Obama numbers in NOVA, there is a major question of turnout in the other Democratic strongholds.  And if coal country didn't come back for Warner, it won't come back for her.  In short, it's possible to imagine VA and NC being within 1-2% of each other in 2016.    

Yeah, if I were the Democrats, I'd be pretty nervous about Virginia and not take anything for granted. Even if she absorbs some of his staffers, she's not Obama and I don't think she could expect a 5+ point win there.

Maybe I'm overreacting to the midterm election there, but it seems like as the Democrats gain in NoVa, they lose other parts of the state; it doesn't seem like Virginia was as easily realigned as people thought---certainly not as much so as Nevada and New Mexico in the General.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #21 on: May 01, 2015, 01:40:01 PM »

Hillary Clinton is probably going to win Virginia without too much trouble, but her campaign will of course spend ungodly amounts of money in the state and visit there whenever the opportunity presents itself.
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fenrir
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« Reply #22 on: May 01, 2015, 01:42:10 PM »

Hillary Clinton is probably going to win Virginia without too much trouble, but her campaign will of course spend ungodly amounts of money in the state and visit there whenever the opportunity presents itself.

Yes. Like my friend from Fairfax County said, "People here will vote for her because they look like her."
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #23 on: May 09, 2015, 08:04:56 AM »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Survey USA on 2015-04-27

Summary: D: 46%, R: 41%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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