So SUSA, PPP, and Elon all more or less agree on Hillary vs. Jeb, showing her up 1-3 points. But the difference between this and PPP on Clinton v. Walker is insane (Hillary up 9 vs. Walker up 3.) The gaps between the two are also pretty big on the other candidates. Interesting.
However, polling likely voters this early is nearly as silly as polling adults. Though you'd think LVs would hurt Hillary...
MoE movement.
All this indicates is that the swing states are really "swingy" already right now (look at the other polls recently from FL, VA, CO etc.) and Hillary is neither favoured to win nor doomed. Simply everything is possible.
Though you'd think LVs would hurt Hillary...
That has to do with the poll itself:
SUSA polled 1275 adults in NC, of which 1070 described themselves as "likely 2016 voters".
That's 84% of all adults.
That may be right for now, but when the campaign really starts and NC voters are bombarded with ads from Clinton/Bush, they will tune out with disgust and turnout among all adults will be 50-60% on election day. That hurts Clinton.
12 points is MoE?
She's clearly favored to win at the moment, judging from both the national and state polls. Though things can obviously change when the election is still 18 months away.
