NC-SurveyUSA: Hillary slightly ahead

[Tender Branson]

1070 November 2016 Likely Voters:

45-43 Clinton/Bush
47-43 Clinton/Paul
46-41 Clinton/Rubio
47-42 Clinton/Cruz
48-39 Clinton/Walker

44-42 Clinton/"some other Republican"

...

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http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e12280bf-3fbd-4bb8-876a-b484c2a95cb4

[Tender Branson]

If we assume that NC is R+5 in 2016 (after R+6 in 2012 and R+7 in 2008), then this poll here and the Elon poll would indicate that Clinton is roughly ahead by 7% nationally against Bush and 9-10% against Paul/Rubio/Cruz and 14% against Walker.

This would also be in line with other recent state polls.

[Tender Branson]

So SUSA, PPP, and Elon all more or less agree on Hillary vs. Jeb, showing her up 1-3 points. But the difference between this and PPP on Clinton v. Walker is insane (Hillary up 9 vs. Walker up 3.) The gaps between the two are also pretty big on the other candidates. Interesting.

However, polling likely voters this early is nearly as silly as polling adults. Though you'd think LVs would hurt Hillary...

MoE movement.

All this indicates is that the swing states are really "swingy" already right now (look at the other polls recently from FL, VA, CO etc.) and Hillary is neither favoured to win nor doomed. Simply everything is possible.

Though you'd think LVs would hurt Hillary...

That has to do with the poll itself:

SUSA polled 1275 adults in NC, of which 1070 described themselves as "likely 2016 voters".

That's 84% of all adults.

That may be right for now, but when the campaign really starts and NC voters are bombarded with ads from Clinton/Bush, they will tune out with disgust and turnout among all adults will be 50-60% on election day. That hurts Clinton.

[Tender Branson]

Walker does not have that high of a name recognition in NC right now as Bush does.

So, you might get a poll crowd that knows Walker less than another poll crowd who knows him better.

Because Bush and Clinton are universally known, their margins are not that far apart.

But with Walker it could create a Walker+3 result with one poll crowd and Hillary+9 in another ...