What would a Sanders floor be?
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Author Topic: What would a Sanders floor be?  (Read 2925 times)
Mr. Illini
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« on: April 30, 2015, 04:27:59 PM »
Just how low would a Sanders floor be in the general?

Here's what I think:



I included New Hampshire because of how drawn they are to independent (small i) politicians and excluded Minnesota because it was a 7% spread in 2012 and I think that could be exclipsed due to the Twin Cities' moderate suburbs that voted for Obama but may tip away from Sanders.
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Gallium
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« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2015, 04:33:20 PM »
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Flake
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« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2015, 04:36:00 PM »
« Edited: April 30, 2015, 05:07:36 PM by Governor Flo »
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2015, 04:47:10 PM »


161 electoral votes and probably around 43% in the popular vote
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2015, 05:10:10 PM »
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
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« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2015, 05:27:18 PM »

I'd say this minus ME-02
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2015, 05:29:26 PM »
His floor would be a shutout.  If this country has any brains whatsoever, they would not even think about voting for a socialist.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: April 30, 2015, 05:30:35 PM »
« Edited: April 30, 2015, 05:47:17 PM by IceSpear »
Starting with states both Gore and Kerry carried.



Pink - Likely to flip (57 EVs)
Medium red - May flip in a complete disaster (69 EVs)
Dark red - Won't flip (116 EVs)

I'm more inclined to say the floor would be 185 than 116, but I also don't feel 100% comfortable ruling out a state like OR or NJ flipping if Republicans nominate a great candidate and Sanders runs a horrible campaign.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #8 on: April 30, 2015, 07:34:52 PM »
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #9 on: April 30, 2015, 08:02:37 PM »
Quote from: Memorial Day Bushie 2015 on April 30, 2015, 05:29:26 PM
His floor would be a shutout.  If this country has any brains whatsoever, they would not even think about voting for a socialist.

He wouldn't even win DC or Vermont? lol
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« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2015, 11:46:54 PM »
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Ebsy
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« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2015, 11:50:26 PM »
I actually think Sanders would do well in New Hampshire.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2015, 12:12:00 AM »


I have respect for Bernie Sanders, but being objective, this is his floor.
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #13 on: May 01, 2015, 03:02:44 PM »
Quote from: FreeTNvolunteer on May 01, 2015, 04:42:57 AM


212 EV

There is NO way these states (except MAYBE NH) would vote Republican in 2016. Just not happening, guys.

Indy's Map is truth.
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #14 on: May 01, 2015, 03:37:23 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Illini on April 30, 2015, 08:02:37 PM
Quote from: Memorial Day Bushie 2015 on April 30, 2015, 05:29:26 PM
His floor would be a shutout.  If this country has any brains whatsoever, they would not even think about voting for a socialist.

He wouldn't even win DC or Vermont? lol

He might win them, but it's no guarantee.
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #15 on: May 01, 2015, 03:37:58 PM »
Quote from: Memorial Day Bushie 2015 on May 01, 2015, 03:37:23 PM
Quote from: Mr. Illini on April 30, 2015, 08:02:37 PM
Quote from: Memorial Day Bushie 2015 on April 30, 2015, 05:29:26 PM
His floor would be a shutout.  If this country has any brains whatsoever, they would not even think about voting for a socialist.

He wouldn't even win DC or Vermont? lol

He might win them, but it's no guarantee.

Yes it is
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #16 on: May 01, 2015, 04:05:09 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Illini on May 01, 2015, 03:37:58 PM
Quote from: Memorial Day Bushie 2015 on May 01, 2015, 03:37:23 PM
Quote from: Mr. Illini on April 30, 2015, 08:02:37 PM
Quote from: Memorial Day Bushie 2015 on April 30, 2015, 05:29:26 PM
His floor would be a shutout.  If this country has any brains whatsoever, they would not even think about voting for a socialist.

He wouldn't even win DC or Vermont? lol

He might win them, but it's no guarantee.

Yes it is

Maybe because they are extremely liberal, but if they were smart, they would stay away from him at all costs.
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #17 on: May 01, 2015, 06:04:54 PM »
Quote from: Memorial Day Bushie 2015 on May 01, 2015, 04:05:09 PM
Quote from: Mr. Illini on May 01, 2015, 03:37:58 PM
Quote from: Memorial Day Bushie 2015 on May 01, 2015, 03:37:23 PM
Quote from: Mr. Illini on April 30, 2015, 08:02:37 PM
Quote from: Memorial Day Bushie 2015 on April 30, 2015, 05:29:26 PM
His floor would be a shutout.  If this country has any brains whatsoever, they would not even think about voting for a socialist.

He wouldn't even win DC or Vermont? lol

He might win them, but it's no guarantee.

Yes it is

Maybe because they are extremely liberal, but if they were smart, they would stay away from him at all costs.

Yes... It's the dumb people voting for him... Sure.
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Thunderbird is the word
Zen Lunatic
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« Reply #18 on: May 01, 2015, 06:07:53 PM »
I wonder if Sanders would lose Connecticut, nothing would drive rich Fairfield county gold coasters back into he welcoming arms of the GOP then the Democrats nominating an actual socialist.
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
CommanderClash
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« Reply #19 on: May 01, 2015, 06:19:39 PM »
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WVdemocrat
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« Reply #20 on: May 01, 2015, 06:53:46 PM »


Pretty much all the states Obama lost by <10%.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #21 on: May 01, 2015, 08:04:26 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Illini on April 30, 2015, 04:27:59 PM
Just how low would a Sanders floor be in the general?

Here's what I think:



Minnesota doesn't swing much, and New Mexico has gone sharply uncompetitive very fast. Maine is practically homogeneous.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #22 on: May 01, 2015, 10:15:16 PM »
Quote from: Memorial Day Bushie 2015 on April 30, 2015, 05:29:26 PM
His floor would be a shutout.  If this country has any brains whatsoever, they would not even think about voting for a socialist.

Reported for trolling (seriously)
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The Free North
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« Reply #23 on: May 01, 2015, 11:26:56 PM »
Quote from: Zen Lunatic on May 01, 2015, 06:07:53 PM
I wonder if Sanders would lose Connecticut, nothing would drive rich Fairfield county gold coasters back into he welcoming arms of the GOP then the Democrats nominating an actual socialist.

They already have

Dems would risk losing working class Italian/Irish voters in New England who are not quite as liberal
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #24 on: May 01, 2015, 11:39:14 PM »
Quote from: (CT) The Free North on May 01, 2015, 11:26:56 PM
Quote from: Zen Lunatic on May 01, 2015, 06:07:53 PM
I wonder if Sanders would lose Connecticut, nothing would drive rich Fairfield county gold coasters back into he welcoming arms of the GOP then the Democrats nominating an actual socialist.

They already have

Dems would risk losing working class Italian/Irish voters in New England who are not quite as liberal

I honestly think Sanders would be able to appeal to them.
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