2015 Election Season in Argentina (1st Round, Oct 25 / Runoff Nov 22)

[Velasco]

Time is marching on and there's not still a thread for this. According to polls, there are three frontrunners in the presidential race: Buenos Aires Governor Daniel Scioli of the ruling Front For Victory (Frente Para la Victoria, FPV), Sergio Massa of the Renewal Front (Frente Renovador, FR) and Mauricio Macri of the Republican Proposal (Propuesta Republicana, PRO). Both Scioli and Massa are Peronist, the first belonging to the official (kirchnerista) branch of the 'movement' and the second heading a dissident branch after having been Chief of the Cabinet of Ministers, defecting later from FPV ranks to run successfully in the 2013 Legislative election in the key Buenos Aires province. Scioli, on his part, may face the challenge of several potential candidates to get the FPV nomination, being the most relevant Entre Rios Governor Sergio Uribarri and Minister of Interior Florencio Randazzo. Incumbent president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is not necessarily fond of the BsAs Governor and she would certainly prefer his aforementioned rivals, however she will endorse Scioli grudgingly if he emerges victorious in the FPV primary. Mauricio Macri is currently mayor of Buenos Aires and is the best placed non-Peronist candidate. Macri's PRO has had always the handicap of a weak territorial implementation in Argentinian provinces, but the bid of the conservative candidate has been reinforced by the endorsement of the centrist Civic Radical Union (Unión Cívica Radical, UCR) and Elisa Carrió, three times presidential candidate as well a notorious and controversial figure in Argentinian politics. The defections of the UCR (which despite a decline began in early 2000s retains a territorial structure) and Carrió have weakened the centre-left Broad Front UNEN (Frente Amplio UNEN). National Deputy Margarita Stolbizer of the socialdemocratic GEN party will run for the presidency with Senator Pino Solanas (Proyecto Sur) as running mate in the Broad Front UNEN ticket.

Election season calendar (source Baker Institute with some add-ons):

June 10: Final date for political parties to constitute electoral alliances for federal and presidential elections. Provincial Peronist bosses such as Córdoba Governor José Manuel de la Sota and Adolfo Rodríguez Saá of San Luis may well wait until this date to endorse one of the main runners. They will do likely for Massa (De la Sota already dealt with him, see below), but they could join Scioli or even Macri in the light of their interests.

June 14: Elections in the Province of Santa Fe.

Santa Fe is the third most populous Argentinian province and the only one governed by the Socialist Party, which is allied with the UCR and other centre-left forces in the Progressive, Civic and Social Front (FPCS). The top contenders will be Miguel Lifschitz (FPCS) and comedian Miguel Del Sel (PRO). A victory of the PRO candidate would boost Macri's chances in the presidential election. Socialists and other small parties endorse Margarita Stolbizer for the presidency, while UCR and Carrio's supporters are supposed to endorse Macri (although leading figures at provincial level might decide not to follow the endorsements decided by their national executives).

June 22: Formal close of Filing to Primaries. In that date, we will know with certainty which of the main candidates has to face an intra-alliance competition. As well, we will know which candidates for the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies endorse every presidential candidate. Then we will know with whom the myriad of local and provincial political machines stand.

July 5: Elections in the City of Buenos Aires and the Province of Córdoba.

Regardless the PRO candidate is senator Gabriela Michetti or Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, the party of incumbent mayor Mauricio Macri (in office since 2007) is the clear favourite to win the mayoral election. The question then is to know if the PRO candidate gets more than 50% of the vote or is needed a runoff, because the BsAs City has a two-round system. A second round would force Macri to spend time campaigning in the national capital instead of proselytizing the provinces.

In Córdoba the main contenders are Juan Schiaretti of the ruling Union for Córdoba (Peronist, leaning right) and Óscar Aguad of the UCR. The first is the lieutenant of Gov José Manuel de la Sota, who is member of the Justicialist Party (PJ) but was nominated presidential candidate of the Christian Democratic Party. Yesterday De la Sota agreed with Sergio Massa competing against each other in the Renewal Front primary under the banner Argentina Unida. The winner will compete against Scioli (if nominated), Macri and Stolbizer. The UCR candidate is endorsed by PRO and the Córdoba-based Civic Front.

August 9: Mandatory Open Primary Elections (PASO)

Argentina requires every party or alliance to choose its federal candidates in simultaneous primaries open to all voters, with participation compulsory for those between the ages of 18 and 69. The results of this massive pre-election census will be used to measure the relative viability of the main candidates. Analysts, donors, politicians and voters will pay close attention to the primary vote totals, especially the nationwide vote percentage obtained by each of the main alliances. Macri and Massa (if nominated) will face a particular competition, because both have a special interest to be perceived as the most viable option to oust FPV from government by economic and political elites, and of course by voters. Macri has also an interest in a low vote share for Margarita Stolbizer, which would leave him as the only viable non-Peronist candidate.

Only those candidates whose alliance/party gets at least 1.5% of the vote can run in the presidential election. FPV, FR, PRO, Broad Front UNEN and the Trotskyst led Workers' Left Front (FIT) will surpass that threshold with all certainty.

October 25: Federal Election Day

First Round of the Presidential Election.

Legislative Elections to renew 24 out of 72 seats in the Senate and 130 out of 257 members of the Chamber of Deputies.

Gubernatorial, provincial legislative and mayoral/city council elections will be held in 11 of the 23 Argentinian provinces.

November 22: Presidential runoff

If on October 25 the first-place candidate does not win either more than 45 percent of the valid vote or at least 40 percent of the valid vote and at the same time finish more than 10 percent ahead of the second-place candidate, a runoff election between the top two candidates from the first round will be held on November 22. The candidate who receives the most votes on this date will be elected president for a four-year term and assume office on December 10.

http://bakerinstitute.org/the-2015-election-season-in-argentina-seven-key-dates/
 

[Velasco]

Mandatory primary elections (PASO) have taken place in the City of Buenos Aires and the Province of Santa Fe, in order to define the candidacies for Mayor and Governor respectively. The fact that I didn't notice shows that I lack the time to follow the electoral process closely, so don't expect a massive coverage and feel free to give your inputs please.

In the City of Buenos Aires the primary election held on April 26 consolidated Macri's PRO, which got 47.3% of the vote, according to provisional results. The result of the intra-party primary was favourable for the candidate endorsed by Macri, who defeated senator Gabriela Michetti. In second place came the ECO (Organized Citizen Energy) list, one of the two splinters of the disintegrated UNEN Front which were competing in the centre-left space. The candidate for Mayor will be young economist Martín Lousteau, who is increasingly perceived as an emerging leading figure in national politics. ECO has an agreement to endorse Macri in the presidential election, so lists supporting the incumbent BsAs mayor got nearly 70% of the vote.  FPV came third with oficialista lists gathering 18.7% of the vote. Trailing at great distance came the Workers' Left Front (Myriam Bregman) and the Luis Zamora's Self-Determination and Freedom. The primary election weakened both Sergio Massa and Margarita Stolbizer, whose lists didn't reach the 1.5% threshold.

The City of Buenos Aires has a disproportionate importance in the country as a whole, dominating the political, cultural, economic and sporting scenes. Analysts point that the key battle is in the more populated metropolitan area (the BsAs Conurbano, around 10 million people representing nearly 1/4 of the Argentinian population) but focuses are always on the capital and the result will have an impact. Several power groups advocate for an alliance between Macri and Massa (the strength of the latter lies on the Conurbano) to defeat FPV nationwide. CFdK cannot run for reelection but her popularity levels are apparently rising. However, Macri discarded joining forces with Sergio Massa because the Golden Boy form Tigre represents a Peronist alternative to the Kirchner and he "cannot trust in those whom have been governing in the last 25 years".

Summary of provisional results (lists getting more than 1.5% and winning candidates bolded):

Republican Proposal (PRO) 47.3%.

- Horacio Rodríguez Larreta 60%

- Gabriela Michetti 40%

ECO 22.3%

- Martín Lousteau 80.1%

- Graciela Ocaña 18.6%

- Andrés Borthagay 1.3%

FPV 18.7%

- Mariano Recalde 65.6%

- Gabriela Cerruti 11.6%

- Aníbal Ibarra 10.9%

- Carlos Heller 7.8%

Workers' Left Front 2.3%

Self-Determination and Freedom 2%

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/elecciones-2015-t50499

Results by polling booth:

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1788681-como-fueron-los-resultados-de-las-paso-en-la-escuela-donde-votaste

Santa Fe was another victory for Mauricio Macri. The PASO election to define gubernatorial candidates took place on April 19 and the count faced some problems.

PRO candidate Miguel Torres Del Sel places first by a narrow margin, surpassing FPCS by around 5,500 votes according to provisional results.

Provisional Results in Santa Fe:

Unión PRO Federal 32.2%

- Miguel Torres Del Sel 100%

Civic, Progressive and Social Front (FPCS) 31.8%

- Miguel Lischfitz (PS) 70.6%

- Mario Domingo Barletta (UCR) 29.4%

Justicialist Front For Victory (FPV) 21.9%

- Omar Ángel Perotti 100%

Renewal Front for Hope (Sergio Massa) 7.7%

- Óscar Ariel Martínez 'Cachi' 54.9%

- Eduardo Óscar Buzzi 45.1%

The Workers' Left Front (FIT) came 5th getting 2.3% of the vote; the only candidate running was Octavio Crivario.

http://elecciones.santafe.gov.ar/

Count has been completed and final results will be released soon. According to the provincial government, there won't be a substantial variation with regard the provisional count.

[Velasco]

Sergio Massa gets 50,000 people into the Vélez Sarsfield Stadium in a show of strength:

Massa was given up for dead by many analysts in Argentina and there was some speculation on the possibility of a withdrawal, so he decided to convene a crowded rally and to play strong: All or Nothing. He used a harsh rhetoric and even mentioned the Spanish indignados in his attack against corrupts and Kirchner supporters. "I'm going to be the Nation's president because corruption makes me sick". "I'm going to sweep La Cámpora" "The Argentina that is coming is the country of the young people who wants to progress". "Look at indignados in Spain". However Massa is far from being close, ideologically speaking, to prostest movements in Spain and has a tough stance on delinquency. The candidate attacked judges that bring criminals out of prison, as well promised to shoot down airplanes suspect of transporting drugs.

Massa was the CFdK's Chief of the Cabinet of Ministers, but later became in one of her greatest enemies in a move usual in the Peronist 'movement'. Months ago, he was the clear favourite in the presidential race. Massa allied with several dissident Peronist factions, specially with powerful mayors in the BsAs Conurbano. He counts as well with the support of the craftsman of the Argentinian recovery after the 2001 crisis, Roberto Lavagna. However, the alliance between Macri and the UCR, together with a recovery of popularity experienced by the current administration, put him down to the third place in the polls and he is facing increasing hardships. However, his alliance with Córdoba governor José Manuel De la Sota and yesterday's rally, intended to keep Massa's ranks united, may reboost his chances.

[Velasco]

The first test in this long election year took place on April 12 in the northern province of Salta. The PASO elections to select gubernatorial candidates gave the victory to incumbent Gov Juan Manuel Urtubey of the Front For Victory, who was followed by Senator Juan Carlos Romero (former Gov himself), a dissident Peronist backed by Sergio Massa. Mauricio Macri lacked a candidate for governor.

Results (lists getting at least 1.5%, candidates for gov/vice):

Renewal Justicialist Front For Victory (FPV) 47.23%

Juan Manuel Urtubey / Miguel Ángel Isa

Front Romero + Olmedo 33.69%

Juan Carlos Romero / Alfredo Olmedo

Workers' Party 7.29%

Claudio del Plá / Gabriela Cerrano

Front UCR-UNEN-PS 6.67%

Miguel Nanni / Alberto Tonda

People's Front 2.05%

Edmundo Falú / Óscar Monzón

Workers' Socialist Movement (MST) 1.83%

Cecilia Gómez / Silvia Álvarez

http://www.electoralsalta.gov.ar/2015/wfPrimariasResultado.aspx

It was a contest between two candidates whom have been governing the province in the last 20 years. However and despite the clear local character of this election, the Salta primary was interpreted as a first test to check the mood of public opinion after the shock caused by the Nisman case. Cabinet members (including Florencio Randazzo) and Daniel Scioli flew to Salta to celebrate with Urtubey, because everybody wanted a photo opportunity with the victorious candidate. The election showed the uncontested Peronist strength in the Argentinian peripheral provinces.

On April 19, two "rich" provinces held primary elections to select candidates for Governor: the already mentioned Santa Fe and Mendoza. As said before, the result was favourable to Macri in Santa Fe. In Mendoza came on top the UCR candidate, backed by nearly all opposition forces to counter the governing Front For Victory.

Results (lists above 1.5%, candidates for governor):

Change Mendoza 44.64%

Alfredo Cornejo

Front For Victory (FPV) 39.89%

Adolfo Bermejo won the intra-party contest against other two candidates.

Workers' Left Front (FIT) 7.09%

Noelia Barreto

http://www.resultadospaso2015.mendoza.gov.ar/w+hstconsgenpro-3_3_7_0.html

[Velasco]

The final count in Santa Fe didn't change the outcome of the provincial Mandatory Open Primary Elections (PASO), but the margin between Unión Pro Federal and the FPC shortened from 5,493 votes to 3,393 votes, according to La Nación. In raw vote, the five alliances that surpassed the 1.5% threshold got:

Unión PRO Federal: 536,480. Candidate: Miguel Del Sel

Civic Progressive and Social Front (FPCS): 533,087.

Candidate elect: Miguel Lifschitz (PS) 376,627. Eliminated: Mario Barletta (UCR) 156,460

Justicialist Front For Victory: (FPV) 365,239. Candidate: Omar Perotti

Renewal Front For Hope: 131,313. Candidate elect: Óscar "Cachi" Martínez

Workers' Left Front (FIT): 39,040. Candidate: Octavio Crivario

Even though the margin between the two main alliances is narrow, individually the advantage of Miguel Del Sel (the man on the right in the pic above) is remarkable. However, that's not entirely conclusive because nobody really knows where will be going the votes obtained by UCR's Mario Barletta, whose party is allied with Socialists provincially and endorses Mauricio Macri (the man with the microphone) in the presidential race. The third party in there, the Front For Victory, was happy with the result because it supposed "rising from the ashes" after a chain of past errors. Omar Perotti was the best prepared candidate for many people, says La Nación. The candidate backed by Massa, on the other hand, has to resign himself to a poor fourth place. Finally the Trotskyst candidate, backed by "a strong social and union work", entered in the race. Gubernatorial elections are set on June 14, as said in the OP.

A strong controversy arose after the provisional results left 15% of the votes cast without being counted. PRO, FPV, UCR and the FIT denounced irregularities. Provincial government alleged defects in reporting, but the province's minister of Justice Juan Lewis denied any wrongdoing. Miguel Del Sel complained stating that he feared that something strange could happen, while Mario Barletta said that his Socialist allies made a terrible mess and suggested that a couple of officials should have resigned.

Santa Fe is a rich agricultural province but is harassed by an increasing violence linked with drug trafficking, to the point that Gov Antonio Bonfatti's home was fired with machine guns, supposedly by elements hired by traffickers. Since 2007, when the PS leader Hermes Binner got to the governorship, it has been the testing ground of the "Santa Fe model" and socialists were proud of their achievements in healthcare and social policies. Rosario is the most populous city of the province and the main socialist stronghold. The birth town of Ernesto Che Guevara and Lionel Messi faces serious problems, becoming recently in one of the main exponents of the problems associated with the drug trade surge in Argentina. As a consequence, there's a dramatic social situation in popular neighbourhoods and slums, portrayed in the article that I'll link below (Spanish, sorry) entitled Rosario, una ciudad de búnkeres y soldaditos.

http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/03/22/actualidad/1395524012_283532.html

[Velasco]

State of the race, according to the Poliarquía poll released on April 19 by La Nación.

The left column shows the vote intention for the potential presidential candidates in the PASO, the primary election that will take place in August. Daniel Scioli and Mauricio Macri are tied with Sergio Massa coming third and minister of Interior Florencio Randazzo (FPV) fourth. Trailing at a fair distance come Margarita Stolbizer (Broad Front UNEN or SURGEN), Jorge Altamira (FIT), Elisa Carrió (Civic Coalition, sides with Macri), Ernesto Sanz (UCR) and Entre Rios Gov Sergio Uribarri (FPV).

The right column shows vote intention for the first round of the presidential election. Here Daniel Scioli beats Mauricio Macri by a 6% margin. The reason given by the pollster is that Scioli would retain 85% of the vote that the different FPV pre-candidates would get together in August in the competitive intra-party contest. As for Macri, the pollster said that his candidacy is growing constantly. Eight months ago Macri was at 15%; Massa's fortune has been reverse in the same period. That result could lead to a runoff in November.

Breakdown by region.

City of Buenos Aires: Macri 36%, Scioli 29%, Massa 12%, Stolbizer 10%

Greater Buenos Aires: Scioli 36%, Massa 22%, Macri 21%, Stolbizer 11%

Rest of the country: Scioli 33%, Macri 29%, Massa 21%, Stolbizer 4%

According to polling chief Fabián Perechodnik, the outlook in which elections will take place is cleared from past turbulences, due to an improvement of economic forecasts. There was a point of inflection with the death of attorney Nisman, but prospects recovered from there. The poll pictures a reasonably optimistic public perception of the country's situation: 44% thinks that it's going to improve a year from now, 31% that is going to remain and 15% that it will get worse.

[Velasco]

Neuquén, a province placed in the northern end of the Patagonia and bordering with Chile in the Andean range, held gubernatorial elections on April 26 under the commotion caused by the eruption of the Calbuco volcano in the neighbouring country. The ashes reached parts of the province and it was feared a delay in voting. Unlike other Argentinian provinces, Neuquén has not adopted the PASO primaries. The election defined the succession of incumbent Gov Jorge Sapag of the Neuquén People's Movement (MPN), a singular provincial party, Peronist in spirit, that governs the province since 1962 historically ruled by the Sapag family clan. MPN chairman is former governor Jorge Sobisch, who was presidential candidate in 2007. The outcome of the 2015 election was favourable for the MPN once again and Omar Gutiérrez will be the next governor. In second place came Cutral-Có mayor Ramón Rioseco of the FPV. Incumbent mayor of Neuquén City Horacio "Pechi" Quiroga came in third place leading an alliance between his NCN outfit, the UCR and the PRO. At a fair distance came Gabriela Suppisich of the FIT, Raúl Dobrusin of the People's Front and Alcides Christiansen leading an alliance between the Socialist Party and the Civic Coalition.

Results at 96.21% (candidate for gov/vice):

Neuquén People's Movement (MPN) 37.86%

Omar Gutiérrez / "Rolo" Figueroa

Front For Victory (FPV) 28.84%

Ramón Rioseco / Alberto Ciampini

New Nequén Compromise (NCN) 19.45%

Horacio "Pechi" Quiroga / Leandro López

http://elecciones2015.neuquen.gob.ar/neuquen/pd_gobernador.php?id=1

MPN success wasn't capitalised by any presidential candidate, although the provincial party reached an agreement with Sergio Massa. The FR pre-candidate couldn't go to the province due to difficulties caused by volcanic ashes in flights and lost the photo opportunity. Horacio Quiroga was endorsed in the campaign by Mauricio Macri and the UCR chairman Ernesto Sanz.

[Zanas]

I really don't get the purpose of these PASO elections. Is turnout the same as the general ?

[Velasco]

I really don't get the purpose of these PASO elections. Is turnout the same as the general ?

You are not the only one. They only make sense if you have intra-party contests in the main alliances like in BsAs City. Otherwise they are redundant and only of use to clear small parties from the race, like that election in Salta. There are no big differences in turnout, because vote is compulsory for people aged between 18 and 69, as said in the OP. In 2011 turnout in the PASO was 2% higher than in the general election, maybe because CFdK already got >50% in the presidential primary. In 2013 turnout was slightly higher in the legislative election with regard to the PASO.

[Velasco]

Senator Fernando "Pino" Solanas (Proyecto Sur, UNEN) calls the reminders of the Broad Front UNEN to join forces with Sergio Massa in a "big space" that assembles "all expressions of the national centre-left". Solanas is going to run as presidential pre-candidate in the August primaries (PASO), even though he has no chances of winning. He advocates the creation of "a plural and progressive" pact "without exclusion" to confront the polarisation between the FPV and the PRO-UCR-CC alliance. Solanas says that Massa's shift toward a "more substantial" discourse in the Vélez Sarsfield rally surprised him and pointed against those who believe that "the contradiction in Argentina is on the Peronist-Non Peronist antinomy" or a confrontation between "narco state or Republic", that he says is the thesis maintained by Elisa Carrió (CC) and the US State Department. Solanas would like to include in that alliance the Progressive Front (FAP) led by the socialist Hermes Binner and Margarita Stolbizer, the Víctor de Gennaro's People's Front, the Free of the South Movement and the Vilma Ripoll's MST.

Even though such alliance looks like unworkable for a number of reasons, the idea is not so crazy taking into account the UCR's internal division evidenced in the Gualegaychú convention held in March. Then, the victorious faction led by UCR chairman Ernesto Sanz advocated for joining forces with Macri and Carrió's Civic Coalition, while another faction led by former Vicepresident Julio Cobos (backed by Gerardo Morales and Ricardo Alfonsín) advocated for the reconstruction of the centre-left alliance and an eventual agreement with the Massa's Renewal Front. 180 delegates voted for the Sanz proposal and 136 backed Cobos. However, it's possible that Solana's proposal is coming late. I ignore to what extent Macri's traction in the polls has brought the UCR ranks together. In any case, the centenarian UCR is no longer a consistent party, just an alliance of different regional bosses assembled under the venerable banner.

A familiar face who has joined Massa's ranks is Francisco de Narváez, who stands as pre-candidate for Governor of Buenos Aires in the Renewal Front. Mauricio Macri has discarded joining forces with Massa in that race and postulates María Eugenia Vidal as his pre-candidate in the PRO-UCR-CC alliance. As for the presidential pre-candidates all party bosses in the alliance will stand in the PASO: Macri (PRO), Sanz (UCR) and Carrió (CC). Try to guess who's the favourite in the intra-party contest. 

[Famous Mortimer]

There are "anti-Peronists" who would switch from Marci to Stolbizer if Stolbizer had a chance? That seems pretty ridiculous.

[Velasco]

There are "anti-Peronists" who would switch from Marci to Stolbizer if Stolbizer had a chance? That seems pretty ridiculous.

Why? I'm not sure what you deem ridiculous. Alliance politics in Argentina follow an intricate and particular logic that it's not easy to explain. Try to be more precise, please.

If you want a personal opinion, it's sad that Stolbizer has not a chance because she's the only decent candidate running. However, 'realpolitik' considerations may force some 'progressive' non-Peronists to join Macri or Massa as the lesser evil, even though both are in their ideological antipodes. That's how it works, I'm afraid.

[Famous Mortimer]

There are "anti-Peronists" who would switch from Marci to Stolbizer if Stolbizer had a chance? That seems pretty ridiculous.

Why? I'm not sure what you deem ridiculous. Alliance politics in Argentina follow an intricate and particular logic that it's not easy to explain. Try to be more precise, please.

If you want a personal opinion, it's sad that Stolbizer has not a chance because she's the only decent candidate running. However, 'realpolitik' considerations may force some 'progressive' non-Peronists to join Macri or Massa as the lesser evil, even though both are in their ideological antipodes. That's how it works, I'm afraid.

It's weird because Marci is a conservative and Stolbizer is a left-winger.

Why do people care about who is a Peronist and who isn't at this point, since the label means nothing?

[Famous Mortimer]

How about this:

Why would a left-wing non-Peronist prefer a conservative non-Peronist over a left-wing Peronist?

I mean, aside from the obvious answer "because they're not Peronist".

Why would a candidate's stance on Peronism (a term which signifies nothing) take priority over their position on the right-left spectrum (which as flawed as it is, actually has some concrete meaning)?

[Velasco]

How about this:
Why would a left-wing non-Peronist prefer a conservative non-Peronist over a left-wing Peronist?

There are no left-wing Peronists among the best placed pre-candidates in this election, both Scioli and Massa are on the centre-right side of the spectrum. For instance, when Massa was young he was in the the right-wing UCeDé party (a force allied with Carlos Menem in the 90s), later he joined the FPV ranks, held important posts in the CFdK's administration and was elected mayor of Tigre in metropolitan BsAs. It can be said that he's a bit of an opportunistic careerist. Massa began his presidential bid with a discourse placed in the "middle way", that is to say, between the Kirchner style of governance and the "turning toward the neoliberal past" represented by Macri. However, his loss of traction in the polls seems to have forced a certain turn to populism. Even though that turn is hardly left-wing (he mantains a tough stance on security), his stated rejection of the economic model that Macri represents might attract some progressives to his cause. Scioli, on his part, has been always a kind of Christian Democrat. It must be noted that the FPV is not only comprised by left-wing populist movements like La Cámpora, its electoral strength in the provinces is sustained by local governors whom mostly lean to conservative stances (Urtubey in Salta, for instance) or just act according to which way the wind blows. On the other hand, the rejection that Peronism raises among its adversaries is based on a style of governance rather than on ideology. That coalition between the Macri's conservative PRO and the centrist UCR and CC parties is mainly based on what they call "republican values" and lacks of a common platform. However, Macri is way too much "neoliberal" and "conservative" for all the forces still backing Margarita Stolbizer. A runoff between Scioli and Macri horrifies some progressives. Massa could be the lesser evil for them.  

[Velasco]

Breaking: Santa Fe gubernatorial election.

Extremy tight contest between Miguel Lifschitz of the Socialist Party and Miguel Torres del Sel of the Mauricio Macri's Republican Proposal. FPV candidate Omar Perotti is performing better than in the previous PASO elections and comes in a very close third place.

Provisional results (95.45% of the booths reported)

Miguel Lifschitz (Civic Progressive and Social Front) 30.69%

Miguel Torres del Sel (Unión PRO Federal) 30.58%

Omar Perotti (Front For Victory) 29.25%

Óscar Ariel Martínez (Renewal Front for Hope) 3.68%

Octavio Crivario (Workers' Left Front) 2.33%

http://elecciones.santafe.gov.ar/

[DC Al Fine]

Can someone explain the Argentine political parties and their support bases? Or is that too much of a colossal mess to explain?

[Velasco]

Can someone explain the Argentine political parties and their support bases? Or is that too much of a colossal mess to explain?

It'd be a colossal mess, indeed. I have no time to research on the current outfits, but party politics in Argentina has been always structured around two axis. According to Pierre Ostiguy the main cleavages are on the classic left-right axis and (more originally) on a differentiation between the "high" and the "low". It's truly complicated to explain, so I'll quote a couple of paragraphs and link the whole analysis by Ostiguy on the historical evolution of the party system in Argentina. The most interesting part is precisely the description of the "high" and "low" types.

The Argentine political arena or 'party system' is, has been, and continues to be structured as a two-dimensional space, and more precisely, at least from 1945 to 2002, as a double political spectrum. This structure for party or leaders’ competition has resisted and outlasted many regime changes, economic calamities, and institutionally short-lived political actors. In fact, positions in the two-dimensional Argentine political space are far more stable than the partisan institutions themselves; a position abandoned within it leads to the creation of a new partisan actor to fill it. The dimension orthogonal to the left-right axis, itself very present in Argentina, is clearly rooted in the social, political, political-cultural, and sociocultural cleavage between Peronism and the forces opposed to it, or “anti-Peronism.” Both Peronism and anti-Peronism, moreover, fully range from left to right, thus creating a double political spectrum in Argentina. This main cleavage, in addition, has been notoriously difficult to characterize ideologically and politically, also complicating the comparative analysis of party systems. A key goal of this paper is to show that it is best understood -in a more general way- as being a conflict and contrast between the “high” and the “low” (Ostiguy 2009) in politics (...)


High and low are poles of a dimension in politics; they are neither social groups nor social strata, even though the high-low dimension in politics does have social implications (...)

The high-low dimension is, just like left and right, made up of two subdimensions or components. These subdimensions, again like those constitutive of left and right, are at sharp angles in relation to one another, i.e., are highly correlated. Positions on the high-low dimension, however, may be more difficult to change in a fully credible way than left-right positioning, itself quite unstable in the case of many Latin American politicians. High and low can be said to be about recognition and identification, whether these are with issue position and/or politicians. While some would like to see high and low as “only” about “political style,” they actually connect deeply with a society’s history, its group identities and, quite often, resentments, and with differing criteria for assessing what is likeable and normatively acceptable.

The first component of the high-low axis is the social-cultural appeal in politics. This component has to do with manners, demeanors, ways of speaking and dressing, and tastes displayed in public. On one pole, people publicly present themselves as well behaved, proper, composed, and perhaps even bookish. Negatively, they can appear as stiff, rigid, serious, colorless, somewhat distant, and boring. On the other pole, people frequently use a language that includes slang or folksy expressions and metaphors, are more demonstrative in their bodily or facial expressions as well as in their demeanor, and display more raw, culturally popular tastes. Politicians on the low are capable of being  more uninhibited in public and are more apt to use coarse or popular language. They  often appear -at least to the observer on the high- as more “colorful.” While one may wish to call this dimension class-cultural, I have found that it is empirically most closely correlated, though not synonymous, with educational level (...)

The second component of the high-low dimension of appeals in politics is political-cultural. This dimension is about forms of political leadership and preferred or advocated modes of decision-making in the polity. On one pole, one finds political appeals consisting of claims to favor formal, impersonal, legalistic, institutionally-mediated models of authority. On the other pole, one finds political appeals emphasizing personalistic, strong (and generally male) leadership. Personal versus impersonal authority is perhaps a good synthesis of this polarity. The pole arguing for impersonal authority generally claims to represent “procedural normalcy” (at least as a goal to be achieved) in the conduct of public life. The personalist pole generally claims to be much closer to “the people” and to represent them better than the pole claiming or arguing for a more impersonal, procedural, proper model of authority. In practice, one finds on the low, to use Peronist language, the appeals of leaders "con pelotas" ("with balls"), who know how to lead the people. To paraphrase Aldo Rico, they “doubt” less (as "doubt is the bragging of intellectuals"). The low often entails a preference for decisive action (often at the expense of some “formalities”) over the “niceties” that accompany the rule of law (...)

https://kellogg.nd.edu/publications/workingpapers/WPS/361.pdf

I think it's not easy to place the current candidates and parties on that two-dimensional axis. Focusing on the main pre-candidates running in this election, the three with best chances are placed right of the centre on the ideological spectrum. It can be argued that Peronist candidates represent the "low" on the second axis, while anti-Peronist represent the "high". However, I think there are some nuances. I find hard to place Sergio Massa and Mauricio Macri. The first is a Peronist who has been trying to find a "middle way" on that cleavage, appealing both the middle-class and the popular segments weary of the Kirchners and distrustful of past economic models (Macri would suppose a return to Menem's neoliberal policies, according to that narrative). Macri is a conservative anti-Peronist -allied with the traditional opposition to that movement- who claims to represent the "republican institutionalism", but he often resorts to populistic rhetoric and has a proximity to some Peronist leaders (arguably to Carlos Reutemann of Santa Fe). Probably Margarita Stolbizer is the only candidate which could be ascribed on the "high" side of that axis, as well she's the representative of what remains of the broken centre-left alliance. The traditional UCR ("civic" and "republican") base had a strong urban middle-class component, but that party had strength in some provinces as well. It seems that the PRO is about to be the main party of the urban middle classes and of certain elites. However, I'd be cautious with generalisations. Peronist supporters are not absent in the "illustrated" segments and elites and Macri has some appeal with popular types. Finally, we have the Trostskyst movement (the Workers' Left Front or FIT) that is a world appart, placed on the left fringe of the ideological spectrum. Apparently the FIT appeals both to university types and workers. It has made inroads in the labour movement traditionally dominated by Peronist unions, as well it can appeal to people disillusioned with the traditional "centre-left". The FIT is a minority movement in any case, but it has strength in some places and had shocking results in the legislative elections two years ago. 

[Velasco]

Electoral Court made official yesterday the victory of the socialist Miguel Lifschitz in the Santa Fe gubernatorial election, which took place on June 14. The candidate of the Civic Progressive and Social Front (FPCS) was proclaimed governor on having obtained an advantage of 1,496 votes over the PRO candidate Miguel Del Sel. Count finished at the beginning of this week; Del Sel and the rest of candidates conceded defeat.

Official results were:

Miguel Lifschitz (Civic Progressive and Social Front)  584,017 votes (30.64%)

Miguel Del Sel (Republican Proposal) 582,521 votes (30.56%)

Omar Perotti (Front For Victory) 558,571 votes (29.30%)

Óscar Martínez (Renewal Front) 70,429 votes (3.29%)

Octavio Crivario (Workers' Left Front) 44,686 votes (2.34%)

A gubernatorial runoff has taken place in Tierra del Fuego, the southernmost Argentinian province. Booths closed less than one hour ago. The two contenders in what La Nación deems an "uncertain ballotage" are Rosana Bertone of the Front For Victory (FPV) and Federico Sciurano of the Civic Radical Union (UCR). Bertone is currently a senator, and apparently more close to Daniel Scioli than to Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Sciurano is mayor of Ushuaia, the provincial capital, and runs for governor backed by the UCR and a sector of the local Movimiento Popular Fueguino (MPF).

The first round took place a week ago. Rosana Bertone took the lead getting 42.3% of the vote, while Federico Sciurano placed secong getting 34.2%. Osvaldo López of the New Encounter Party came in third getting 5%; incumbent Vicegovernor Roberto Crocianelli came fourth getting 4.7%; 13.4% of the votes cast were blank ballots.

Bertone has received the endorsement of the New Encounter, a small left-leaning party led by Martín Sabatella (mayor of Morón, in metropolitan Buenos Aires) that is usually allied with the Kirchner. The FPV got 8 of 15 seats in the provincial legislature, as well on past Sunday it won the mayoralty of Río Grande (the most populated of the province). Sciurano is backed by all the national opposition. Incumbent governor is Fabiana Ríos of the Patagonian Social Party.  

[Velasco]

Rosana Bertone wins the runoff and will be the next Governor of Tierra del Fuego.

Provisional results:

Rosana Bertone (FPV) 49.72%

Federico Sciurano (UCR) 45.99%

(The remaining percentage up to 100% corresponds to blank ballots)

Mrs Bertone stated that she was "endlessly grateful" with president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and the national administration. She made a special mention to her "dear friend and compañero" Daniel Scioli. The BsAs Governor and presidential candidate got involved personally in Bertone's campaign; Mr Scioli compromised actions to improve living standards and the integration of the remote Tierra del Fuego with the rest of Argentina. Bertone said that since that very moment she's "the activist number 1" in the campaign of Daniel Scioli.

A simultaneous mayoral election that took place in the city of Ushuaia. Provisional results placed Walter Vuoto (FPV) ahead of his rivals Héctor Stefani (PRO), Damián de Marco (UCR-MPF) and others including incumbent Gov Fabiana Ríos.

https://twitter.com/electoraltdf

The Front For Victory adds a second gubernatorial win (the other is Salta), while the opposition has added Neuquén (MPN), Santa Fe (FPCS), Río Negro and Mendoza (UCR). Important contests are scheduled next Sunday: the City of Buenos Aires and the province of Córdoba.

Mendoza Gubernatorial election (June 21, 2015)

Alfredo Cornejo (Change Mendoza) 46.51%

Adolfo Bermejo (Front For Victory) 39.49%

Noelia Barbeito (Workers' Left Front) 10.26%

http://resultadosprovinciales2015.mendoza.gov.ar/w+hstconsgenpro-3_3_7_0_0.html

Alfredo Cornejo (UCR) was backed by the PRO, the Sergio Massa's Renewal Front and the centre-left.

Río Negro guberntorial election (June14, 2015):

Incumbent Gov Alberto Weretilneck, a former ally of the Kirchner that now sides with Sergio Massa, was seeking reelection. His main rival was Miguel Ángel Pichetto, who is the leader of the FPV block in the Argentinian Senate. The third contender was María Magdalena Odarda, who is Senator too and belongs to Elisa Carrió's Civic Coalition. Odarda ran allied with the centre-left Progressive Front. Veteran Horacio Massacesi ran for the UCR. Massacessi was presidential candidate in 1995, placing behind Carlos Menem (PJ) and José Octavio Bordón (FREPASO)  Results were:

Alberto Weretilneck (Together We Are Río Negro) 52.8%

Miguel Ángel Pichetto (Front For Victory) 33.94%

María Magdalena Odarda (Progressive Front for the Equality and the Republic) 10.15%

Horacio Massaccesi (Civic Radical Union) 3.1%

http://www.jusrionegro.gov.ar/inicio/tep/elecciones/2015/index.html

La Nación has a summary of the different elections held to date in seven provinces and the city of Buenos Aires:

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1805937-voto-a-voto-como-fueron-los-resultados-de-las-elecciones-en-siete-provincias-y-la-ciudad
  

[Velasco]

Summing up.

City of Buenos Aires Mayoral election:

First Round (July 5)

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (Unión PRO) 44,7%

Martín Lousteau (ECO) 25%

Mariano Recalde (FPV) 21.5%

Luis Zamora (Self-Determination and Freedom) 3.9%

Myriam Bregman (Workers' Left Front) 3.1%

Councilors (July 5)

Unión PRO 43.6% (15), ECO 23.2% (7), FPV 20.4% (6), Workers' Left Front 4.8% (1), Self-Determination and Freedom 3.9% (1)

Second Round (July 19)

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (Unión PRO) 51.6%

Martín Lousteau (ECO)* 48.4%

_{*ECO ("Organised Citizen Energy") is a broad centre-left alliance including UCR and the Socialist Party, among other groups. Candidate Martín Lousteau, a former Minister of Economy in the first term of CFdK, will endorse Ernesto Sanz (UCR) in the upcoming PASO election. In case Sanz is not selected, Lousteau stated he will endorse Margarita Stolbizer instead of Macri.}

Interactive map of results by commune:

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1812006-la-comuna-que-se-definio-por-35-votos-y-otras-curiosidades-del-ballottage

Córdoba Gubernatorial Election (July 5):

Juan Schiaretti (Union for Córdoba) 39.86%

Oscar Aguad (Together for Córdoba)* 33.78%

Eduardo Accastello (Córdoba Podemos - FPV) 17.20%

Liliana Olivero (Workers' Left Front) 4.92%

Eduardo Mulhall (New MAS) 1.43%

Raúl Gómez (MST-New Left) 1.41%

Roberto Birri (Progressive and Popular Front) 1.35%

_{* Alliance including UCR, PRO and the Córdoba based Civic Front}

http://www.resultados.eleccionescordoba.gob.ar/r/0/Reg_04000000.html


Pre-candidates in the PASO elections (scheduled on August 9):

Front for Victory:

Daniel Scioli / Carlos Zannini

Cambiemos ("Let's Change"):

-Mauricio Macri / Gabriela Michetti (PRO)

-Ernesto Sanz / Lucas Llach (UCR)

-Elisa Carrió / Héctor Flores (Civic Coalition)

A New Alternative:

-Sergio Massa / Gustavo Sáenz (Renewal Front)

-José Manuel de la Sota / Claudia Rucci (Union for Córdoba)

Progressives:

-Margarita Stolbizer / Miguel Ángel Olaviaga

Compromiso Federal:

-Adolfo Rodríguez Saá / Liliana Negre

Workers' Left Front:

-Jorge Altamira / Juan Carlos Giordano

-Nicolás del Caño / Myriam Bregman

MST-United Left:

Alejandro Bodart / Vilma Ripoll

People's Front:

Víctor De Gennaro / Evangelina Codoni

New MAS:

Manuela Castañeira / Jorge Ayala

People's Party:

Mauricio Yattah / María Belén Moretta

Movement of Neighbourhood Action:

Raúl Albarracín / Gastón Dib

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/elecciones-2015-t50499

[RodPresident]

Is Larreta's close call in CABA damaging Macri?
Any chance of a De La Sota upset against Massa? João Santana is working for him.
And who's the favourite to be FpV nominee for BA gubernatorial election? Anibal Fernandez or Julian Dominguez?
And Pino Solanas endorsement? He woke with FAP, lunched with Massa, had a dinner with Rodriguez Saa and slept alone.

[Velasco]

Is Larreta's close call in CABA damaging Macri?

Maybe or maybe not, but Larreta's Pyrrhic victory in addition with the narrow defeat in Santa Fe were little upsets for the PRO. Polls predicted a larger margin for Larreta in the City of Buenos Aires. This and the lack of transparency and/or professionalism of some pollsters call surveys released by different media into question.  Anyway, it seems clear that:

a) Daniel Scioli will place first in the PASO and is having good times. Some polls suggest that he wouldn't be far from 40% in the presidential first round, but I would take that with some grains of salt.

b) Mauricio Macri will place second and is apparently stagnant in vote intention.

c) Sergio Massa has lost much ground. He will come third and has no chance to reach an eventual ballotage. UCR chairman Ernesto Sanz is now regretting that Macri rejected an alliance with the Golden Boy from Tigre.

Any chance of a De La Sota upset against Massa? João Santana is working for him.

No, according to polls.

And Pino Solanas endorsement? He woke with FAP, lunched with Massa, had a dinner with Rodriguez Saa and slept alone.

Interesting question (...)

EDIT: Solanas declared himself "prescindente", that is to say he won't endorse any candidate. He will continue as Senator until his term expires. Then, he will likely quit politics: he's old.   

[Velasco]

Daniel Scioli takes a clear lead a week before the primary elections, according to the Poliarquía poll released by La Nación.

Front For Victory 37.6% Candidate: Daniel Scioli. "Projection range": 38% / 41%.

Cambiemos 30.7% Projection range: 31% / 34%

Mauricio Macri (PRO) 26.1% (26%/29%), Elisa Carrió (CC) 2.5% (3%/5%), Ernesto Sanz (UCR) 2.1% (2%/4%)

United for a New Alternative 18.1% Projection range: 18% / 21%

Sergio Massa (FR) 13.5% (14%/17%), José Manuel de la Sota (PJ Córdoba) 4.6% (4%/6%)

Progressives 3.3%. Candidate: Margarita Stolbizer. Projection range: 3% / 5%

Adolfo Rodríguez Saá (Compromiso Federal) and Jorge Altamira (Workers' Left Front, FIT) are both in a range between 1% and 3%.

So according to that estimation, candidates in bold letters would qualify for the first presidential round in October.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1815608-el-frente-para-la-victoria-supera-a-cambiemos-y-la-pelea-es-por-la-diferencia

[StateBoiler]

I half expect the election result to not be followed through if the winner is not someone that will cover up the Kirchner administration's misdeeds. In my opinion one of the world's worst legitimately democratically elected leaders in recent times.