2015 Election Season in Argentina (1st Round, Oct 25 / Runoff Nov 22)

[Famous Mortimer]

Did Pino Solanas really flirt with an alliance with Rodriguez Saa? What the hell?

[Famous Mortimer]

Summing up.

City of Buenos Aires Mayoral election:

First Round (July 5)

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (Unión PRO) 44,7%

Martín Lousteau (ECO) 25%

Mariano Recalde (FPV) 21.5%

Luis Zamora (Self-Determination and Freedom) 3.9%

Myriam Bregman (Workers' Left Front) 3.1%

Councilors (July 5)

Unión PRO 43.6% (15), ECO 23.2% (7), FPV 20.4% (6), Workers' Left Front 4.8% (1), Self-Determination and Freedom 3.9% (1)

Second Round (July 19)

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (Unión PRO) 51.6%

Martín Lousteau (ECO)* 48.4%

_{*ECO ("Organised Citizen Energy") is a broad centre-left alliance including UCR and the Socialist Party, among other groups. Candidate Martín Lousteau, a former Minister of Economy in the first term of CFdK, will endorse Ernesto Sanz (UCR) in the upcoming PASO election. In case Sanz is not selected, Lousteau stated he will endorse Margarita Stolbizer instead of Macri.}

Interactive map of results by commune:

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1812006-la-comuna-que-se-definio-por-35-votos-y-otras-curiosidades-del-ballottage

Córdoba Gubernatorial Election (July 5):

Juan Schiaretti (Union for Córdoba) 39.86%

Oscar Aguad (Together for Córdoba)* 33.78%

Eduardo Accastello (Córdoba Podemos - FPV) 17.20%

Liliana Olivero (Workers' Left Front) 4.92%

Eduardo Mulhall (New MAS) 1.43%

Raúl Gómez (MST-New Left) 1.41%

Roberto Birri (Progressive and Popular Front) 1.35%

_{* Alliance including UCR, PRO and the Córdoba based Civic Front}

http://www.resultados.eleccionescordoba.gob.ar/r/0/Reg_04000000.html


Pre-candidates in the PASO elections (scheduled on August 9):

Front for Victory:

Daniel Scioli / Carlos Zannini

Cambiemos ("Let's Change"):

-Mauricio Macri / Gabriela Michetti (PRO)

-Ernesto Sanz / Lucas Llach (UCR)

-Elisa Carrió / Héctor Flores (Civic Coalition)

A New Alternative:

-Sergio Massa / Gustavo Sáenz (Renewal Front)

-José Manuel de la Sota / Claudia Rucci (Union for Córdoba)

Progressives:

-Margarita Stolbizer / Miguel Ángel Olaviaga

Compromiso Federal:

-Adolfo Rodríguez Saá / Liliana Negre

Workers' Left Front:

-Jorge Altamira / Juan Carlos Giordano

-Nicolás del Caño / Myriam Bregman

MST-United Left:

Alejandro Bodart / Vilma Ripoll

People's Front:

Víctor De Gennaro / Evangelina Codoni

New MAS:

Manuela Castañeira / Jorge Ayala

People's Party:

Mauricio Yattah / María Belén Moretta

Movement of Neighbourhood Action:

Raúl Albarracín / Gastón Dib

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/elecciones-2015-t50499

Okay, just to be clear because I think this is the first time there's been a primary that mattered. The top candidate from each alliance or grouping or whatever gets to be on the real ballot and the others don't, right? So only "Let's Change" "A New Alternative" and one of the Trotskyite groups have actual contests? The result are just guaranteed to be on the final ballot?

[MaxQue]

There is also a threshold of 1.5%. If the party don't reach it, it's out of the final ballot.

Those are the PASO elections, would would translate as "primary, open, simultaneous and mandatory elections".

[Famous Mortimer]

So the groupings are basically:

Front for Victory: Pro-Kirchner Peronists. Previously left-wing, now kind of ambiguous.

Let's Change: Grab bag of all major non-Peronist parties, Republican Proposal (conservative), UCR (liberal, I'm guessing Sanz is the right-wing of the party?), Civil Coalition (vaguely leftist)

A New Alternative: Anti-Kirchner Peronists. Previously conservative, now ambiguous and vague. Massa used to be right-wing and is trying to be left-wing now. de la Sota used to be  leftish and is now trying to be conservative.

Progressives: Soft left anti-Peronists, basically representing people who were on the left-wing of the UCR previously.

Federal Compromise: Anti-Kirchner Peronists. Mostly conservatives. Possibly also ambiguous and vague now?

Workers Left Front: Biggest Trot alliance, made mostly of the Socialist Workers' Party. How is a Trot party having a primary contest though? Is it just an age thing? Young guard vs. old guard?

Socialist Workers' Movement: Another Trot party with links to Nahuel Moreno, so like Trots with local flavor.

People's Front: Sort of broad left-wing alliance led by a trade unionist congressman that used to be in an alliance with the Trots but isn't anymore.

New MAS: Another Trot party that claims to be the REAL heirs of Moreno.

People's Party: irrelevant minor party.

Movement of Neighbourhood Action - Splint of Recreate for Growth, a non-Peronist free market liberal party that split from the right-wing of UCR. Pretty much irrelevant party targeting people who will just vote for Republican Proposal otherwise.

[Velasco]

In my opinion one of the world's worst legitimately democratically elected leaders in recent times.

Which Kirchner are you referring to, Néstor or his widow?

Just to share my thoughts, I'll say that the election is turning dull and I lost actual interest months ago. However, I doubt that many people was going to follow through if things were different. Don't get fooled, anyway. Whatever "misdeeds" has made the current administration and whoever wins the election, the Kirchner era might well come to an end with a new president. For better or worse, Daniel Scioli is standing out the likely winner. Even though he's supported by the political machine built by the Kirchner in past decade and has a devoted kirchnerista as running mate, he's very different from Cristina and the way he's going to rule the country remains unknown. I'm not saying better or worse, just that Scioli and CFdK are as different as the day and the night. A president can exercise great power in Argentina and a vicepresident can be sidelined with relative ease. As for Macri, he has made some tactical mistakes like not joining forces with Massa and ultimately he seems disoriented. For instance, he changed his mind on a couple of issues in an attempt to match national consensus. He's promising now that YPF and Aerolíneas Argentinas will remain in State ownership, as well he states that implementing the AUH subsidy for poor families was a good thing.

As some former menemista writes, the right in Argentina is going to a "wilful extinction" ("The defeat of the right is semantic and ideological. Above all, it's cultural"). It's like all candidates were joining a centrist consensus; there are no great programmatic differences between them. The left is irrelevant too, but political debate seems so boring that said writer and journalist points ironically that elder trotskyst leader Jorge Altamira (he's around 70) looks young and refreshing in comparison... as he was generationally comparable to Pablo Iglesias, the leader of the Spanish Podemos party. The "Academic Trotskyst" deserves to govern to make things more entertaining, says the witty die-hard Peronist.

[Velasco]

Workers Left Front: Biggest Trot alliance, made mostly of the Socialist Workers' Party. How is a Trot party having a primary contest though? Is it just an age thing? Young guard vs. old guard?

Apparently. Jorge Altamira has been presidential candidate in several occasions and he's more than 70. Altamira is supported the Workers' Party (PO). Nicolás Del Caño is a young congressman aged 35 and is supported by the Socialist Workers Party (PTS). Del Caño is national deputy representing the province of Mendoza. The FIT has been performing pretty well in said province, especially in the 2013 legislative election and the 2015 local election in the homonymous provincial capital (FIT came second behind UCR-PRO, getting more votes than FPV). 

[Famous Mortimer]

There is also a threshold of 1.5%. If the party don't reach it, it's out of the final ballot.

Those are the PASO elections, would would translate as "primary, open, simultaneous and mandatory elections".

Does the candidate need to get 1.5 or just the alliance? What if the two Workers' Left Front candidates get less than 1.5 each but more than that combined?

[Velasco]

Does the candidate need to get 1.5 or just the alliance? What if the two Workers' Left Front candidates get less than 1.5 each but more than that combined?

Good question.

http://bakerinstitute.org/the-2015-election-season-in-argentina-seven-key-dates/

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Add Adolfo Rodríguez Saá in that list of candidates.

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So the groupings are basically:

A New Alternative: Anti-Kirchner Peronists. Previously conservative, now ambiguous and vague. Massa used to be right-wing and is trying to be left-wing now. de la Sota used to be  leftish and is now trying to be conservative.

De la Sota has never been leftist and I doubt that Massa tries to be a left-winger. You might be puzzled with Massa's career in the FPV or by the fact that former Córdoba Gov has been switching between dissident Peronism and the Kirchner. Massa can only be rated as vaguely centrist; probably De la Sota is more right-leaning than him in the present moment.

[Velasco]

There's an important primary election to determine the candidates for Governor of the Buenos Aires province, alongside with the PASO. Main tickets are:

Front For Victory (FPV)

- Aníbal Fernández / Martín Sabbatella

- Julián Domínguez / Fernando Espinoza.

The FPV alliance is the likely winner of this election, but the internal contest promises to be entertaining. The Fernández/Sabbatella ticket represents the 'Ultra K' faction of the FPV. Aníbal Fernández is facing hardship, because journalist and TV star Jorge Lanata accused him of being involved in the killing of 3 people, happened in 2008 and attributed to ephedrine traffickers operating in Buenos Aires province. Julián Domínguez has been growing in the polls and maybe he has chances of winning.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1815696-jorge-lanata-presento-un-informe-que-vincula-a-anibal-fernandez-con-el-narcotrafico

Cambiemos: 

- María Eugenia Vidal /  Daniel Salvador (PRO)

Renewal Front (FR):

- Felipe Solá / Daniel Arroyo

Progressives:

- Jaime Linares / Juan Carlos Pugliese (GEN)

- Jorge Ceballos / Victoria Vuoto (Libres del Sur)

Workers' Left Front (FIT):

- Néstor Pitrola / Rubén Sobrero (PO)

- Christian Castillo / Javier Hermosilla (PST)

Compromiso Federal:

- Eduardo D'Onofrio / Ana Savignano

Workers' Socialist Movement (MST):

- Vilma Ripoll / Gustavo Giménez

Other lists:

Popular Front (Adolfo Aguirre), New MAS (Héctor Heberling), Patria Grande (Manuel Bertoldi)

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1816149-cuenta-regresiva-para-las-paso-conoce-a-los-protagonistas-de-la-pelea-bonaerense

Polls:

- Jorge Giacobbe: Fernández / Sabbatella (FPV) 19%, Vidal (PRO) 18%, Domíguez (FPV) 13%, Solá  (FR) 12%

- Raúl Aragón: Solá (FR) 23.2%, Fernández (FPV) 21.3%, Domínguez (FPV) 15.9%

- Aresco: Fernández (FPV) 25.2%, Vidal (PRO) 23.4%, Solá (FR) 18.8%, Domínguez (FPV) 16.8%

[Velasco]

Aníbal Fernández is facing hardship, because journalist and TV star Jorge Lanata accused him of being involved in the killing of 3 people, happened in 2008 and attributed to ephedrine traffickers operating in Buenos Aires province.

On that affair:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/07/argentina-primary-election-anibal-fernandez-murder-drug-allegations

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More fun to watch is the Jorge Altamira campaign video, in which the candidate of the Workers' Left Front destroys the Peronist Death Star:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwcmAgm10X0

More campaign videos here:

http://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias/2015/08/150806_argentina_paso_elecciones_presidenciales_spots_irm

[RodPresident]

There's an important primary election to determine the candidates for Governor of the Buenos Aires province, alongside with the PASO. Main tickets are:

Front For Victory (FPV)

- Aníbal Fernández / Martín Sabbatella

- Julián Domínguez / Fernando Espinoza.

The FPV alliance is the likely winner of this election, but the internal contest promises to be entertaining. The Fernández/Sabbatella ticket represents the 'Ultra K' faction of the FPV. Aníbal Fernández is facing hardship, because journalist and TV star Jorge Lanata accused him of being involved in the killing of 3 people, happened in 2008 and attributed to ephedrine traffickers operating in Buenos Aires province. Julián Domínguez has been growing in the polls and maybe he has chances of winning.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1815696-jorge-lanata-presento-un-informe-que-vincula-a-anibal-fernandez-con-el-narcotrafico

Cambiemos: 

- María Eugenia Vidal /  Daniel Salvador (PRO)

Renewal Front (FR):

- Felipe Solá / Daniel Arroyo

Progressives:

- Jaime Linares / Juan Carlos Pugliese (GEN)

- Jorge Ceballos / Victoria Vuoto (Libres del Sur)

Workers' Left Front (FIT):

- Néstor Pitrola / Rubén Sobrero (PO)

- Christian Castillo / Javier Hermosilla (PST)

Compromiso Federal:

- Eduardo D'Onofrio / Ana Savignano

Workers' Socialist Movement (MST):

- Vilma Ripoll / Gustavo Giménez

Other lists:

Popular Front (Adolfo Aguirre), New MAS (Héctor Heberling), Patria Grande (Manuel Bertoldi)

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1816149-cuenta-regresiva-para-las-paso-conoce-a-los-protagonistas-de-la-pelea-bonaerense

Polls:

- Jorge Giacobbe: Fernández / Sabbatella (FPV) 19%, Vidal (PRO) 18%, Domíguez (FPV) 13%, Solá  (FR) 12%

- Raúl Aragón: Solá (FR) 23.2%, Fernández (FPV) 21.3%, Domínguez (FPV) 15.9%

- Aresco: Fernández (FPV) 25.2%, Vidal (PRO) 23.4%, Solá (FR) 18.8%, Domínguez (FPV) 16.8%

Being Governor of Buenos Aires is probably 2nd most powerful position in Argentinean politics, only after Presidency. But it carries a curse. A governor of province never won a Presidential election since Mitre. If Dominguez manages to displace Anibal Fernandez, this move can help to make CFK position weaker in a Scioli government. In 2005, then governor Solá supported CFK against Hilda Duhalde (Eduardo Duhalde's wife) in a senatorial election who consolided Kirchnerist power in Peronism. De La Rua blamed his fall on 2001 because then governor Ruckauf, a Peronist.
If I were in Argentina I'd vote for del Caño in PASO and in general for Scioli or Stolbizer.

[Velasco]

According to the National Electoral Chamber (CNE) 32,032,952 Argentinians are entitled to vote in the Open, Simultaneous and Mandatory Primaries (PASO). These peculiar primary elections will be in practice an informal first round, which will determine the outcome of the presidential election on October 25.

Argentinians will use the elections to evaluate the balance of the Kirchner Era. The reinvention of Peronism represented by the Kirchner has dominated Argentina politics since 2003, leading the coming out of the 1998-2002 economic crisis and the subsequent chaos caused by the Corralito, that is to say, a number of measures taken by Minister of Economy Domingo Cavallo in order to stop a bank run. Events in the turbulent 2001-2003 period are strongly embedded in the collective consciousness of the country. This is key to understand, at least partially, the popularity enjoyed by the Kirchner in spite of scandals or alleged misdemeanors.

Once again, Argentina appears an atypical case in Latin America. While presidents in other countries -wether in the left or in the right- see their popularity plummeting due to economic hardship or corruption scandals, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner resists undeterred with the highest approval ratings in the continent. She, however, cannot run for reelection because the relatively bad results in the midterm legislative election held two years ago placed FPV and allies far from the 2/3 of the Argentinian Congress necessary for a constitutional reform. Additionally CFdK has health problems and lacks of a heir among her die-hard supporters, the so-called 'Ultra K'. And here appears Daniel Scioli: a man who was a supporter of former president Carlos Menem (a right-wing Peronist), running mate of Néstor Kirchner in 2003, Governor of Buenos Aires and the CFdK's favourite punching bag. Daniel Scioli has been always despised by the incumbent president (Scioli is perceived to be well to the right of her) and underestimated by rivals. The reason why he's the now uncontested candidate of the FPV and the one with the most chances to win the presidential election is basically resilience. In past years he has endured constant humiliations from La Presidenta and her entourage, while he was consolidating his position in the Buenos Aires province and the Justicialist Party. Scioli is a wealthy man and in his youth he was a jet set playboy and sportsman who ran speed boats until 1989, when he lost his right arm in an accident racing in the Parana river. Scioli is obsessed with image and spends much money on marketing and advertising, as well he has connections in the business world. He lacks the charisma of CFdK and, unlike her, avoids controversy. His forte is a cultivated image of suffering and enduring man who always puts a smile. Scioli states not being interested in ideological debate and manages to convey an image of someone who is far from politics, in spite of his long political career (the last 12 years in the shadow of the Kirchner). Given that Scioli had a clear advantage in the polls over his rivals in the FPV, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner exercised her authority to impose him as the sole candidate of the alliance, with her lieutenant Carlos Zannini as running mate.

Mauricio Macri is one of the Argentina's wealthiest entrepreneurs, song of a magnate of Italian origin who made his fortune as builder of public works and bred among the country's economical elite. Macri was kidnapped in 1991 for 12 years and his father paid 6 million Euros for his ransom. Attempting to move away from the influence of his father, Mauricio Macri embarked on the adventure of being President of the Boca Juniors Football Club. Macri starred the golden age of the club and earned a reputation of good manager with good manners. Given that football and politics are basically the same thing in Argentina, his leap to political arena was a logical step. He became Mayor of Buenos Aires and enjoyed high approval ratings in the Argentinian capital. However, Macri's main handicap in his present presidential bid is that he needs to convince working classes that he's not a right-wing rich man who wants to weaken the State's role and work for the interest of big bosses like his father. Hence his last minute turn promising that he will keep social assistance (the Universal Child Benefit or AUH received by more than 8 million people) and the public ownership of strategic companies, albeit he says they need to be "better managed" than now. Such companies are YPF (the state oil company) and Aerolíneas Argentinas (the Argentinian airline).

Polls place Scioli invariably ahead, so the question is to know if the FPV manages to perform a strong victory or if the alliance led by Macri manages to come close. In the first case, a strong result around 40% of the vote would suppose that Scioli is virtually the next president, given the tendency of the Argentinian electorate to bet for the winning horse. In the second case, the race would be still open in a runoff between Scioli and Macri. The last variable is to know how much support garners Sergio Massa and which candidate would pick his voters in an eventual runoff.

[Velasco]

Being Governor of Buenos Aires is probably 2nd most powerful position in Argentinean politics, only after Presidency. But it carries a curse. A governor of province never won a Presidential election since Mitre. If Dominguez manages to displace Anibal Fernandez, this move can help to make CFK position weaker in a Scioli government. In 2005, then governor Solá supported CFK against Hilda Duhalde (Eduardo Duhalde's wife) in a senatorial election who consolided Kirchnerist power in Peronism. De La Rua blamed his fall on 2001 because then governor Ruckauf, a Peronist.
If I were in Argentina I'd vote for del Caño in PASO and in general for Scioli or Stolbizer.

Yeah, Scioli has the challenge of defeating the curse that Buenos Aires governors have suffered in presidential elections. Since 1862 to date, no Bs AS Governor has managed to become president.

http://elestadista.com.ar/?p=3795

It would be amusing if Felipe Solá was winning that race to become Gov again, but probably that won't happen. Most polls were placing Anibal Fernández still on top, although they are not particularly reliable.

I don't know who would I vote, because I don't like any of the candidates. Probably I'd go for Stolbizer, but she and the 'progressives' are far from raising my enthusiasm right now. The only hope for the 'centre-left' seems to be Martín Lousteau... in 2019. I could even vote for the FIT in case of feeling angry, disappointed or bored to death... but I think they are actually way too dogmatic for me. I could consider Massa, but in a Scioli-Macri runoff I'd probably cast an empty ballot.

[Velasco]

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Another reason is that Cristina (aka the "The Boss") is a "political animal". From BBC World (Spanish):

http://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias/2015/06/150622_argentina_cristina_fernandez_popularidad_irm

Excerpts of that article are translated here:

http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/192556/bbc-highlights-cfks-popularity

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[Famous Mortimer]

Is there any rhyme or reason as to why sometimes Adolfo runs and sometimes Alberto runs? This time it's Adolfo, the former president running. It's the first time he has since 2003. Alberto the brother ran the last two times.

[RodPresident]

Is there any rhyme or reason as to why sometimes Adolfo runs and sometimes Alberto runs? This time it's Adolfo, the former president running. It's the first time he has since 2003. Alberto the brother ran the last two times.

Rodriguez Saa never recovered from being rejected after his one-week Presidency. Now, Rodriguez Saa family discovered that it's a good business to keep separate from main Peronist structures. In this election, they can sell their support in runoff in exchange of pork for San Luis.

[Velasco]

According to La Nación, provisional results place Daniel Scioli (FPV) ahead getting 36.9% of the vote; Macri (PRO) gets 24.4% and the Cambiemos alliance is totalling 30.9%; the UNA alliance is getting 22.1% with Sergio Massa (11.9%) slightly ahead of José Manuel de la Sota (10.3%); Progressives and the FIT are getting around 3% each.

FPV is ahead in 17 out of 23 provinces, Cambiemos is ahead in 3 (Mendoza, Santa Fe and Entre Rios), UNA in Córdoba (De la Sota) and Compromiso Federal in San Luis (Rodríguez Saá). The count in Buenos Aires province is going slower than the rest, while there are no news from the City of Buenos Aires (likely it will go for Macri).

[Velasco]

Official results (21.74% counted)

http://www.resultados.gob.ar/web/dat99/DPR99999A.htm

Front For Victory (FPV) (Daniel Scioli) 36.9%

Cambiemos 31.14%

Mauricio Macri (PRO) 78.93%

Ernesto Sanz (UCR) 13.14%

Elisa Carrió (CC) 7.93%

United for a New Alternative (UNA) 21.82%

Sergio Massa 55.63%

José Manuel de la Sota 44.37%

Workers' Left Front (FIT) 3.23%

Nicolás del Caño 55.74%

Jorge Altamira  46.26%

Progressives (Margarita Stolbizer) 2.88%

Compromiso Federal (Adolfo Rodríguez Saá) 2.08%

The rest of parties and alliances are well below 1.5%

[Famous Mortimer]

What happened to the left? Left-wing candidates came in first and second in the last two election. Now the Front for Victory has nominated a right-winger, shouldn't at least some of the voters be going elsewhere?

[Velasco]

Well, this election is not being fought on the left-right axis. The three main alliances have turned to the centre. Scioli is offering a moderate version of kirchnerismo, Macri has approached similar stances - in spite of sellinmg "change"- and Massa was in search of a "middle way". No alternative models; no big differences between them. As for the Progressives, they are way too weak. Stolbizer is a honest woman, but the centre-left needs fresh blood. I guess someone more appealing for the public like Martín Lousteau. Trots seem to be in the path of renewal, on the other hand.

[RodPresident]

What happened to the left? Left-wing candidates came in first and second in the last two election. Now the Front for Victory has nominated a right-winger, shouldn't at least some of the voters be going elsewhere?

2011 was a very strange election. Binner ascended after almost draw in PASO between Duhalde and Alfonsin, as most electable non-K candidate. Macri was neutral, De La Sota too. Now, Macri rallied UCR and CC machines, as some Federal Peronists (Reutemann) too.
P.S: In Santa Fé, Binner is being smashed with a 4th place in senatorial elections. Perotti (FpV) is winning PASO, with Reutemann (Federal Peronism-PRO) as second place.

[Velasco]

2011 was a very strange election. Binner ascended after almost draw in PASO between Duhalde and Alfonsin, as most electable non-K candidate. Macri was neutral, De La Sota too. Now, Macri rallied UCR and CC machines, as some Federal Peronists (Reutemann) too.
P.S: In Santa Fé, Binner is being smashed with a 4th place in senatorial elections. Perotti (FpV) is winning PASO, with Reutemann (Federal Peronism-PRO) as second place.

Yes, in 2011 Binner improved results from the PASO while Duhalde plummeted. He attracted a type of middle class voter that is more opposed to Peronism than ideologically coherent.

Right now Scioli is ahead of the Cambiemos alliance in Santa Fe.

The count in Buenos Aires province is still below 10%

In FPV intra contest for Governor Aníbal Fernández is getting 53.05% and Julián Domínguez 46.95%.

[Velasco]

With the count at 45.95% FPV is ahead getting 36.3%, Cambiemos is getting 31.7%, UNA 21.2%, the FIT 3.5%, Progressives 3.3% and Rodríguez Saá 2%.

While Scioli is the clear winner, the race is still open. Macri reached the minimum target, because FPV didn't reach 40% of the vote and Cambiemos is surpassing 30%. Those figures are important, because electoral legislation says that a candidate can be proclaimed winner in the first round getting 45% or the vote, or 40% with at least a 10% advantage over the rival placed second. Unless UNA voters switch massively to Scioli, a second round between Scioli and Macri looks like a plausible scenario.

[Velasco]

Interactive maps of results by province and department.

National:

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/elecciones-2015-t50499

Buenos Aires Province:

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1817567-como-fue-la-pulseada-presidencial-en-la-provincia-de-buenos-aires

City of Buenos Aires:

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1817546-como-votaron-los-portenos-en-las-paso-presidenciales

Massa vs De la Sota:

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1817550-como-se-distribuyeron-los-votos-de-massa-y-de-la-sota-en-la-interna-de-una

[Velasco]

With the count at 81% the gap between Scioli and the alliance led by Macri widens to approx 7%. FPV gets 37.7%, Cambiemos 30.8%, UNA 20.6%, Progressives 3.5%, FIT 3.4%, CF 2%.

In principle, the result leaves an open scenario for the presidential elections. Daniel Scioli was celebrating at Luna Park (BsAs) and talked about a "resounding victory". Mauricio Macri was happy because of "the consolidation of an alternative in our dear Argentina", stating that he learned from Peronism "the value of social justice and equal opportunities". With regard to such values, they are upheld by Pope Francis, who is said to be a "textbook example" of a Peronist ("peronista de libro"). During the campaign Scioli made constant mentions to the Pontiff, a card that Macri couldn't play.  Massa congratulated himself because in his opinion the result was far from the feared "polarization". The UNA candidate called Macri and Stolbizer to discuss "proposals for change". UNA voters might be key in the eventuality of a second round between Scioli and Macri.

On the other hand, the PRO denounced  theft of ballots in the BsAs Conurbano. They are referring to an usual micro-fraud; people entering in the voting room and stealing or hiding the ballots of rival candidates. In order to prevent it, parties and alliances need a high number of election officials to monitor every polling booth. In the BsAs Conurbano, the Peronist heartland, Scioli and Massa can resort to a massive network of officials and volunteers. A solution would be implementing electronic vote as in the City of Buenos Aires, but national government is attached to the archaic ballots in broadsheet format (in some provinces they measured 1.2 meters). Regarding to that, FPV says that a party that cannot monitor the election cannot govern the country, while Sergio Massa said every party has the responsibility to care about its votes.