2015 Election Season in Argentina (1st Round, Oct 25 / Runoff Nov 22)

[Edu]

LOL, f**king country. Glad I didn't waste my time going to vote in this rain.

[Velasco]

LOL, f**king country. Glad I didn't waste my time going to vote in this rain.

It's not surprising; hard to feel enthusiasm for the candidates. Is there any risk of penalty if you don't turn out? I guess not, but in theory vote is mandatory.

[Edu]

LOL, f**king country. Glad I didn't waste my time going to vote in this rain.

It's not surprising; hard to feel enthusiasm for the candidates. Is there any risk of penalty if you don't turn out? I guess not, but in theory vote is mandatory.

Theoretically there are is some bureaucratic stuff you can't do if you haven't voted and apparently you can't work in the public sector, but no person I ask seems to know exactly what those things are.
My father hasn't voted in 10 years and he has so far not encountered one single problem.

If you ever get trouble for it you only need to pay a fine which is currently 50 Pesos per election missed. 50 Pesos is more or less what a Cappuccino + tips costs in a good cafeteria so it's not really a big deal.


What's troubling in this election is that Anibal Fernandez is winning the primary in the Buenos Aires province. Considering that whoever controls the province basically controls half the country this is a scary thought.

My preferred result would be Macri president and Vidal as governor, but I could live with a Scioli/Vidal or Macri/Dominguez combo. Hell, a Scioli/Dominguez combo would be more or less a continuation of what's happening now, so meh.

But any combination with Fernandez in the equation is horrible, especially if it's Macri/Fernandez, there's potential for half of the contry to go up in flames.

The only hope is that Fernández scares enough people that a lot of votes that went to Sola who came third and to Dominguez who lost the primary go to Vidal and she somehow manages to win. It's very unlikely however.

[Velasco]

The only hope is that Fernández scares enough people that a lot of votes that went to Sola who came third and to Dominguez who lost the primary go to Vidal and she somehow manages to win. It's very unlikely however.

All considered, Vidal made a good election and there could be a polarization between her and Fernández. Do you think it's possible an agreement between PRO and the Renewal Front in the province?

[Edu]

What happened to the left? Left-wing candidates came in first and second in the last two election. Now the Front for Victory has nominated a right-winger, shouldn't at least some of the voters be going elsewhere?

Mate, let me give you a piece of advice. You are never going to make any sense out of Argentine politics  if you keep thinking about them in left wing - right wing terms.

In 1995  right wing neoliberal peronist Carlos Menem got reelected with almost 50% of the vote. In 2011 populist left wing peronist Cristina Kirchner won with around 54% of the vote.
If you look at the maps of the 2 elections you will notice that the districts (not the provinces, but the districts inside those provinces) voted almost the exact same way. This means that the majority of the people that voted for menem in 95, voted for Cristina in 2011.

You also have to look at who the main opposition was in those elections. In 95 it was José Bordón, a left wing peronist in the mold of Kirchner. in 2011 it was first Eduardo Duhalde in the primaries (peronist to the core) and then Hermes Binner (non peronist socialist).

This is a simplification but you'll see that certain parts of the country will ALWAYS vote for the governing Peronist (it doesn't matter if they are fascist, marxists, neoliberals, social democrats or whatever) and the other parts of the country will ALWAYS vote against those peronists (and again it will not matter if those are communists, right wingers, other peronists, centrists, whatever).

Fluctuations may occur but you'll have a better idea of our recent elections if you look at it this way.

[Edu]

The only hope is that Fernández scares enough people that a lot of votes that went to Sola who came third and to Dominguez who lost the primary go to Vidal and she somehow manages to win. It's very unlikely however.

All considered, Vidal made a good election and there could be a polarization between her and Fernández. Do you think it's possible an agreement between PRO and the Renewal Front in the province?

Yeah, she did way better than I expected, I mean, she is still the deputy Chief of Government in the City of Buenos Aires, the fact that she went from being completely unknown in the province to a more than respectable 30% in a gubernatorial elections is amazing. For comparison the candidates that ended up 2nd in the 2011 and 2007 elections got about 16% and 17% respectively.

Anibal Fernandez is probably the "scariest" candidate that the kirchnerists could possibly nominate for governor so yes, a lot of votes that could stay with Sola or go from Dominguez to the other kirchnerist candidate have a much greater chance than normal in ending up for Vidal.

If this were a normal country Macri and Massa should be already talking about what to do in the Province of Buenos Aires. Having the president and the governor of Buenos Aires from opposing parties has always ended up in disaster (not that there is a lot of precedent admittedly). One of them winning and then having Fernandez in charge of the province is what nightmares are made of. In fact they should be talking about what alliances they could make all over the country, including with the UCR, the socialists and whoever want to get on board.
But this is Argentina, they will disappoint.

[Velasco]

What happened to the left? Left-wing candidates came in first and second in the last two election. Now the Front for Victory has nominated a right-winger, shouldn't at least some of the voters be going elsewhere?

Mate, let me give you a piece of advice. You are never going to make any sense out of Argentine politics  if you keep thinking about them in left wing - right wing terms (...)

This is a simplification but you'll see that certain parts of the country will ALWAYS vote for the governing Peronist (it doesn't matter if they are fascist, marxists, neoliberals, social democrats or whatever) and the other parts of the country will ALWAYS vote against those peronists (and again it will not matter if those are communists, right wingers, other peronists, centrists, whatever). [/b]

I think this quote in a previous post is related:

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It seems to me that cleavege has a strong sentimental dimension, too. It's very hard to comprehend if you are an outsider, and I am one of those.

[Edu]

What happened to the left? Left-wing candidates came in first and second in the last two election. Now the Front for Victory has nominated a right-winger, shouldn't at least some of the voters be going elsewhere?

Mate, let me give you a piece of advice. You are never going to make any sense out of Argentine politics  if you keep thinking about them in left wing - right wing terms (...)

This is a simplification but you'll see that certain parts of the country will ALWAYS vote for the governing Peronist (it doesn't matter if they are fascist, marxists, neoliberals, social democrats or whatever) and the other parts of the country will ALWAYS vote against those peronists (and again it will not matter if those are communists, right wingers, other peronists, centrists, whatever). [/b]

I think this quote in a previous post is related:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It seems to me that cleavege has a strong sentimental dimension, too. It's very hard to comprehend if you are an outsider, and I am one of those.

Oh my, I missed that post and you put it much more eloquently than I did.

[Velasco]

Oh my, I missed that post and you put it much more eloquently than I did.

That's not mine, it's from an academic text I found out there. As you say, results in certain parts of the country seem to be always unchanging. But probably is more complex than that, because there are many variants at provincial and local level. I found some analysis on the provincial dynamics of vote in the 2001-2003 period that is massive and nearly unreadable. Anyway, basic patterns in post-2003 elections are relatively simple: you can bet that peripheral provinces and the Conurbano will vote for the FPV candidate, while the Capital and central provinces lean more to the opposition... except in the 2011 landslide.

[Velasco]

Provisional results (97.84%)

Front for Victory (FPV) 38.41%

Daniel Scioli / Carlos Zannini 38.41% (selected)

Cambiemos 30.07%

Mauricio Macri / Gabriela Michetti (PRO) 24.28% (selected)

Ernesto Sanz / Lucas Llach (UCR) 3.45%

Elisa Carrió / Héctor Flores (CC-ARI) 2.34%

United for a New Alternative (UNA) 20.63%

Sergio Massa / Gustavo Sáenz  (Renewal Front) 14.23% (selected)

José Manuel De la Sota / Claudia Rucci  (PJ Córdoba) 6.4%

Progresistas 3,51%

Margarita Stolbizer / Miguel Ángel Olaviaga (GEN) 3.51% (selected)

Workers' Left Front (FIT) 3.31%

Nicolás del Caño / Myriam Bregman (PTS) 1.69% (selected)

Jorge Altamira / Juan Carlos Giordano (PO) 1,62%

Compromiso Federal 2.11%

Adolfo Rodríguez Saá / Liliana Negre 2.11% (selected)

[Velasco]

According to NYT, Primaries pointed to "a close presidential race". The chronicle mentions that Buenos Aires, the province that Scioli currently governs, could be "a sticking point" for the FPC candidate:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/11/world/americas/primaries-in-argentina-point-to-a-close-presidential-race.html?ref=americas

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The FPV intra party contest was especially bitter. Aníbal Fernández claimed that his rival, the President of the Congress Julián Domínguez, was behind accusations. The city of Buenos Aires was an outpouring of speculations. According to El País, rumours were focused on who was the instigator of the scandal and not on the veracity of the sensational disclosure. Some gossip pointed to the Vatican; apparently there's animosity towards Fernández, while Dominguez is a man close to the Catholic Church.

The battle in the Buenos Aires Conurbano left some surprises. Three important Peronist 'Barons' lost the primaries. Controversial Mayor of Merlo Raúl Otaeché has been 24 years in office and stands out as a notorious persecutor of his opponents (wether politicians, priests or social activists). Otaeché just returned to FPV after two years in the opposition camp, but was defeated by another FPV pre-candidate backed by Scioli and called Gustavo Menéndez. Mayor of Moreno Mariano West lost FPV intra-contest to Walter Festa, a man from La Cámpora. Finally Darío Giustozzi lost the FPV nomination in Almirante Brown. Giustozzi was mayor of that municipality between 2007 and 2013, when he joined the Sergio Massa's ranks and was elected deputy in the legislative election held two years ago. The winner of that contest was Mario Cascallares, a man who remained loyal to Scioli. Loyalty is a cherished value in the Peronist movement, despite (or because) constant infighting and treachery among its leaders.

In Santa Cruz, the home province of the Kirchner family, the offspring of the presidential couple had a small error in crying victory. Máximo Kirchner was running in an election for the first time in his life,  topping the FPV list for the Chamber of Deputies. He thought he was winning in the beginning of election night and made a speech, but when the count advanced result turned into a defeat to a joint opposition alliance. FPV got 44.5%, while the combined result of the opposition (splitted in two lists: UCR and Renewal Front) was 47.9%. Máximo Kirchner leads La Cámpora, the youth organisation loyal to the Kirchner. However, he's little known by the public opinion because virtually he doesn't make appearances. The role of La Cámpora under a possible Daniel Scioli administration remains unknown.

I'll save what election analysts say on possible vote swings for later.

[Velasco]

Massive flooding in Buenos Aires province enters in electoral campaign. The heavy rainfall that batters the province since the beginning of this month caused problems in 28 municipalities on election day; 64 polling stations had to be relocated. Around 20,000 people have been evacuated from their homes. Floods are damaging the image of Gov Scioli, who has received criticism because of a trip he made to Italy in order to adjust his orthopedic arm. Scioli had to return home suddenly (some sources say he cancelled a meeting with Renzi, but others say the Italian PM is out on holiday) , while natural disaster highlights his 8 year tenure at the head of the provincial government. Nobody knows how much impact will cause floods in upcoming elections. On the primary election day, they damaged Scioli in municipalities such as Luján, Mercedes, San Antonio de Areco and Campana. Macri came ahead in all these places, probably boosted by indignation. Neighbours complain on governmental abandonment, while rivals took advantage on Scioli's absence. Macri offered to make BsAs City resources available to affected people in the province, while Massa organised with some FR mayors a parallel operation bringing aid to Mercedes.

On a separate issue, José Manuel De la Sota confirmed his agreement with Sergio Massa. Juan Schiaretti, the man who replaced De la Sota as Gov of Córdoba (also a member of the Peronist Union for Córdoba), denied rumours pointing to a deal with Daniel Scioli. "Córdoba punished the Kirchner", said a De la Sota supporter. The votes obtained by De la Sota (6% nationwide, highly concentrated in his home province) are sought by the main contenders in the presidential election. On the other hand, the UNA candidate in Bs As province Felipe Solá ruled out an agreement between the Renewal Front and the PRO. Solá stated that it's too late for such a thing; literally he said "F*** you".   

[Velasco]

Taking advantage of the mistake made by Daniel Scioli with his trip to Italy, Mauricio Macri seeks to focus the debate on economy. Macri promised implementing immediately a free rate of exchange in case of being elected, in a meeting with the country's leading businesspeople. Exchange rate is currently controlled by the Argentinian Central Bank, with limits for the purchase of foreign exchange. In past years a parallel black market has settled in the country, where dollars pay off 50% more than the official exchange rate. This situation complicates investment and foreign exchange; it does not make sense for a foreign investor receiving 9.20 pesos for a dollar in the official market, when the exchange rate in the black market is 15 pesos per dollar. Macri, however, avoids talking about "adjustments", "saving" or "radical change". His main economic advisers say that Argentina doesn't need a "shock" similar to that of Brazil. In any case, Macri assured that with the changes he's going to implement foreign investors are going to introduce many dollars in the Argentinian economy.  International context (fall in commodity prices, yuan devaluations) is not very favourable, though.

Focusing on economy may be risky for Macri and Scioli. Macri may lost votes because of fear to change. As for his main rival, Scioli is aware that he will have to make a turn from the policies of the current administration, but doesn't want to specify measures for similar reasons. The Scioli team discards a sharp devaluation or a fast exit from the current exchange system. They argue that Argentina underwent dozens of devaluations in the past, without solving the problems of the economy. In order to increase competitiveness, Scioli advisers advocate for lowering taxes to exports and investment in infrastructure. Macri says that unlocking exchange rate wouldn't imply a sudden devaluation, while the Scioli team says it would and, in words of Sioli's main adviser Miguel Bein, the consequences would be "reduced wages, fall in consumption and recession". Scioli economists advocate for a gradual dismantling of the current exchange system and, in order to seek funding, they say in private the government will have to negotiate with vulture funds.  "It's not an issue to be solved in a month but in a year because it's needed a negotiation with the 'vultures' with a debt release, otherwise we are not going to receive the necessary support of 2/3 of the Congress". Scioli said that he will seek to cut energy subsidies that keep prices low for the richest half of the population.

[StateBoiler]

In my opinion one of the world's worst legitimately democratically elected leaders in recent times.

Which Kirchner are you referring to, Néstor or his widow?

Cristina. The Nisman thing will never stick to her, but that assassination is no different than what occurred when the generals ran Argentina. What initially put me on to her that "you're a dumbass!" was when she tried to put Jose Maria Lopez in Formula One in 2010 on the back of the stillborn USF1 team. I'd followed USF1 and knew they were in major trouble, and Argentina at the time was having massive financial issues, and my thought was "you're the president of a country that's figuratively in the pits of hell, and your goal is to put a rich kid in an F1 car?"

Is a better way to understand Peronism is that pro-Peronists want more autocratic-style presidents?

[Velasco]

Cristina. The Nisman thing will never stick to her, but that assassination is no different than what occurred when the generals ran Argentina.

The Nisman affair is nasty and circumstances around his death remain obscure. Definitely the whole thing arouses suspicion and concern, but I'd be cautious with such comparisons.

During the military regime terrible things like this happened:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/argentina.htm

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What initially put me on to her that "you're a dumbass!" was when she tried to put Jose Maria Lopez in Formula One in 2010 on the back of the stillborn USF1 team. I'd followed USF1 and knew they were in major trouble, and Argentina at the time was having massive financial issues, and my thought was "you're the president of a country that's figuratively in the pits of hell, and your goal is to put a rich kid in an F1 car?"

I would agree on the dumbassness of Cristina, although her faults should not overshadow her political skills (see a BBC article posted before). However, by 2010 the economy was in good shape and there was a significant consumption growth. The economic situation was a key factor in the Cristina's landslide victory in October 2011, when many among the urban middle class (which traditionally leans more to non-Peronist candidates) voted for her.

Is a better way to understand Peronism is that pro-Peronists want more autocratic-style presidents?

In the light of events in the second half of the XX Century (military coups, ban on Peronist movement, periods of supervised democracy), I think it's not. That doesn't mean that Juan Domingo Perón and others lacked of autocratic tendencies.

[StateBoiler]

Ok.

Reading your definition of Peronism on the front page you linked to, and I think I can understand it more. So based on what you linked to, Donald Trump strikes me as a perfect example of "the low".

[Velasco]

Last polls for the presidential first round that will take place on Sunday. Daniel Scioli is on the verge.

Ipsos-Mora y Araujo (Oct 15): Scioli (FPV) 42.0%, Macri (Cambiemos) 28.2%, Massa (UNA) 22.9%, Stolbizer (Progresistas) 3.4%, Del Caño (FIT) 2.6%
         
Management & Fit (Oct 17): Scioli 38.3%, Macri 29.2%, Massa 21%, Stolbizer 4.8%, Del Caño 2.9%

Giacobbe y asociados (Oct 17): Scioli 40.3%, Macri 28.7%, Massa 20.1%, Stolbizer 4.7%, Del Caño 4.4%

Circuitos, Consultora de Estudios Sociales, Políticos y Territoriales (CCESPT, Oct 17): Scioli 39.1%, Macri 26.9%   , Massa 20.2%, Stolbizer   3.6%, Del Caño 4.9%

Centro de Estudios de Opinión Pública (CEOP, Oct 18) Scioli 40.7%, Macri 28.2%, Massa 21.9%, Stolbizer 4.4%, Del Caño 3.8%

[Hash]

Well, with 70% reporting now (the government's website just came online, for some weird reason), there's been a huge surprise:

Macri 35.98%
Scioli 34.95%
Massa 21.13%
Trot guy 3.45%
Stolbizer 2.67%
Rodriguez Saa 1.83%

To be fair, the province of BsAs is only half in and Scioli is ahead there and K-central Santa Cruz has yet to report the bulk of its votes, so Scioli should come first in the end, but there's gonna be a runoff and Macri is unexpectedly strong.

[Hash]

In other pleasant news, it appears as if the Pro candidate for governor of BsAs Maria Eugenia Vidal will defeat the FPV's candidate, the thoroughly horrible likely criminal/drug dealer Aníbal Fernández. With 62.7% reporting, she has 39.7% to 34.8%.

[RodPresident]

Kingmakers in run-off will go from Massa and De La Sota to Rodriguez Saa and Trots. If Vidal ends winning BA governorship, I as Macri, I'd offer Massa to be my candidate to governor in 2019, a top cabinet position to De La Sota and Rodriguez Saa, a good thing to Massa running-mate. And Macri will have few things to offer to Massa and De La Sota main enemies on Cordoba are with him.
And I'm very sad that Fernández is being defeated as he and running-mate Sabbatella are very K.

[Edu]

The government said that they were going to start giving results after enough votes had been counted and that the first official results were estimated to be released at 11 PM (1 hour and a half ago). Pretty embarrasing, the justice minister went on air with some bullsh**t excuse half an hour ago.

Considering that most people were expecting Scioli to win by about 8% and be close or surpass 40% this result is great.

Hell, C5N , which is a Kirchnerist news channel announced 5 minutes before the polls friggin closed that not only Scioli had won handidly but that today he was going to become the next president. Wankers.

The biggest news of the night though is that Vidal is beating Anibal Fernandez by 5 points, it will probably become closer and Anibal might squeak by, but she has a solid chance to win the Buenos Aires province which would be huge (the last time a Non Peronist won the province was in 1983 and it was just because the peronist candidate was clinically insane). In fact I believe that winning the Buenos Aires Province is as important (if not more) as winning the presidential election.
Quite a few of the historic mayors of the metropolitan area are also losing which is and extremely desirable outcome.

All told, I think the election went better than expected, it made me happy and it rounds off a great weekend for me.

[ag]

2nd round. and, with 79% reporting, Macri is ahead by a whisker.

[Edu]

Vidal holding steady in the Province of Buenos Aires with 75,55% reporting.

She actually has gone up a little to 39,80% and 34,73% to Fernandez.

Where's the "It's happening" gif when you need it?

[Edu]

Scioli will end up winning by 2 or 3 points which is risible compared to the expectations.

[Skye]

Scioli is up now. I didn't expect it to be this close, though.