2015 Election Season in Argentina (1st Round, Oct 25 / Runoff Nov 22)

[Edu]

88,24% reporting

Scioli up by 0,96%

[Edu]

By the way, I think it's fitting to quote this post from Velasco where he made a summary of the polls 5 days before the election.

ROFL

Last polls for the presidential first round that will take place on Sunday. Daniel Scioli is on the verge.

Ipsos-Mora y Araujo (Oct 15): Scioli (FPV) 42.0%, Macri (Cambiemos) 28.2%, Massa (UNA) 22.9%, Stolbizer (Progresistas) 3.4%, Del Caño (FIT) 2.6%
         
Management & Fit (Oct 17): Scioli 38.3%, Macri 29.2%, Massa 21%, Stolbizer 4.8%, Del Caño 2.9%

Giacobbe y asociados (Oct 17): Scioli 40.3%, Macri 28.7%, Massa 20.1%, Stolbizer 4.7%, Del Caño 4.4%

Circuitos, Consultora de Estudios Sociales, Políticos y Territoriales (CCESPT, Oct 17): Scioli 39.1%, Macri 26.9%   , Massa 20.2%, Stolbizer   3.6%, Del Caño 4.9%

Centro de Estudios de Opinión Pública (CEOP, Oct 18) Scioli 40.7%, Macri 28.2%, Massa 21.9%, Stolbizer 4.4%, Del Caño 3.8%

[Edu]

President
91,61% reporting

Scioli = 36,27%

Macri = 34,83%

Massa = 21,28%


Governor of Buenos Aires
93,11% reporting

Vidal = 39,62%

Fernandez = 35,04%

[Famous Mortimer]

Are there run-offs in the governor races too?

[Edu]

Are there run-offs in the governor races too?

Nope.



It's also worth noting that Vidal has won in Quilmes and in Morón which are the territories of Anibal Fernandez and Martin Sabatella
The Kirchnerists mayors in those 2 municipalities also lost.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

The polls have been Israeli election-bad
wow, not even Macri's most ardent fans expected this result

[Edu]

LOL, I need to go to sleep. So last update.

President
96,21% reporting

Scioli = 36,75%

Macri = 34,43%

Massa = 21,33%

Governor of the Buenos Aires province
95,64% reporting

Vidal = 39,51%

Fernandez = 35,16%

So yeah, in the end the difference between Scioli and Macri is going to be about 3%-4%.

The best news of the night is that Maria Eugenia Vidal will be the new governor of Buenos Aires. Don't really care about Macri, but thankfully the province will not be officially ruled by the piece of sh**t Fernández

[Velasco]

 Veo que la noche fue más interesante de lo que prometía :-)

[Zuza]

It's amusing to see how Saá got only 1.67% nationally but still won his family's stronghold San Luis.

[RodPresident]

It's amusing to see how Saá got only 1.67% nationally but still won his family's stronghold San Luis.

But Saa is almost dead as he had less than 40% at home province.

[Velasco]

Maps from La Nación.

Presidential first round by province, department, partido (municipality, BsAs province) and commune (BsAs City):

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1839396-elecciones-2015-resultados-en-vivo-por-provincia-municipio-y-comuna

Buenos Aires Province Governorship:

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1839430-elecciones-2015-mapa-de-resultados-de-la-gobernacion-bonaerense

Legislative Election infographics:

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1839395-elecciones-2015-la-conformacion-del-proximo-congreso-en-tiempo-real

Deputies (in brackets, seats won tonight): FPV and allies 117 (61), UCR-CC 50 (20), PRO 41 (26), Dissident Peronists 36 (20), PS-GEN 9 (Progressives, 2), FIT 4 (Trots, 1).

Gains and losses: FPV -26, UCR-CC +8, PRO +21, Dissident Peronists +9, PS-GEN -10, Left -2

Senators: FPV and allies 42 (11), UCR-CC 11 (6), Dissident Peronists 10 (5), PRO 4 (1), PS-GEN 2 (0), Others 3 (1).

Gains and losses: FPV +2, UCR-CC -3, Dissident Peronists +2, PRO +1, PS-GEN -3, Others +1.

[Velasco]

Gubernatorial elections

Buenos Aires (96.75% reporting)

Maria Eugenia Vidal (Cambiemos) 39.49%

Aníbal Fernández (FPV) 35.18%

Felipe Solá (UNA) 19.22%

Néstor Pitrola (FIT) 3.74%

Jaime Linares (Progresistas) 2,37%

Catamarca (86.71%)

Lucía Corpacci (FPV) 49.8%

Eduardo Brizuela Del Moral (FCS) 41.47%

Chubut (95.49%)

Mario Das Neves (Chubut Somos Todos) 41.34%

Martín Buzzi (FPV) 40.71%

Carlos Lorenzo (Cambiemos) 14.85%

Entre Ríos (91.7%)

Gustavo Eduardo Bordet (FPV) 42.33%

Alfredo De Angeli (Cambiemos) 39.51%

Jujuy (92.42%)

Gerardo Morales (Cambia Jujuy) 58.34%

Eduardo Fellner (FPV) 35.63%

Misiones (96.85%)

Hugo Passalacqua (FRC/FPV) 63.41%

Alez Ziegler (Vamos Juntos) 13.51%

San Juan (96.7%)

Sergio Uñac (FPV) 53.59%

Roberto Basualdo (Compromiso) 30.62%

San Luis (97.7%)

Alberto Rodríguez Saá (CF) 56.17%

José Luis Riccardo (Cambiemos) 29.27%

Héctor González Espíndola (FPV) 13.67%

[Edu]

From the gubernatorial elections you missed:



Formosa (98,32% reporting)

Gildo Insfran (FPV) 73,32%

Luis Naidenoff (Frente Amplio Formoseño) 25,90%


La Pampa

Carlos Verna (PJ) 48,62%

Francisco Torroba (Propuesta Frente Pampeano) 36,34%


Santa Cruz (96,67% reporting)

Alicia Kirchner (FPV) 51,58%

Eduardo Costa (Union Para Vivir Mejor) 45,81%

[tpfkaw]

Since Argentina probably has the most confusing party system of any country (and I don't know which provinces are important/competitive), I'd be interested in knowing whether these results are good or bad for Kirchner and whether the left or right made gains.

[ag]

Since Argentina probably has the most confusing party system of any country (and I don't know which provinces are important/competitive), I'd be interested in knowing whether these results are good or bad for Kirchner and whether the left or right made gains.

Bad for Kirchner. Will be very bad if Macri wins in the second round, of course.

[Edu]

Since Argentina probably has the most confusing party system of any country (and I don't know which provinces are important/competitive), I'd be interested in knowing whether these results are good or bad for Kirchner and whether the left or right made gains.

4 provinces and a city (The City of Buenos Aires, the Province of Buenos Aires, the Province of Córdoba, the Province of Santa fe and The province of Mendoza) make up about 66% of the population of the country, with the other 19 provinces making up the remaining 34%.

All 5 districts are now in control of the opposition. A big blow

The most important one being The Province of Buenos Aires which accounts for 40% of the population and was controlled by Peronists since 1987. That was the Biggest blow.
Also, much of the power is concentrated among the mayors of the different districts in the Metropolitan area of Buenos Aires and a bunch of them lost.

Kirchnerists lost majority control of the chamber of deputies too.


And well, answering to your question about wether the left or right made gains is a pretty daunting task since the opposition is made up by leftists, centrists, rightists, you name it. Let's just simplify it by saying that peronism in power lost and the center or center-right had a great election adn that the party of mauricio Macri, who is the big winner of the elections has a bunch of peronists in there too.

[ag]

Would Buenos Aires need a new mayoral election if Macri wins?

[Edu]

Would Buenos Aires need a new mayoral election if Macri wins?

Nope, the mayoral election already happened back in July. In the first Round Horacio Rodriguez Larreta from PRO and close advisor of Macri won with 45,56% of the votes, followed by Martin Lousteau who ran on some kind of centre left coalition and got 25,47%. Both of them qualified for the runoff.
The Kirchnerist candidate, Mariano Recalde,  ended up third with 21,91% and failed to make the runoff which was a first for a candidate from the FPV.

The runoff ended up like this

Rodriguez Larreta (PRO) = 51,64%

Lousteau (ECO) = 48,36%


He'll take office on December 10th.

[RodPresident]

Stolbizer said that she wouldn't vote for Scioli.
I think that for Scioli winning in runoff, price will be very costly as he will have to surrender many things to Massa people. Some people are saying that he promised Foreign Affairs to De La Sota and Economy to Lavagna. A very high price that Cristina would have some problems to solve and that can bring an earlier than expected Cristina-Scioli split. I'd try to get another endorsements as Rodríguez Sáa brothers, Solanas, Lousteau.
I'd rate election now as Likely Macri.
And are people already talking how Macri will split his cabinet. I think that problems will arouse as UCR will demand a larger share as it gave campaign structure to Macri, as PRO is almost inexistent outside Buenos Aires and to attract Non-K Peronists and even people that are with Scioli now.
But Argentina politics is very interesting as candidates that made good showings in a election go to become non-entities in next election, as Bordon, Lopez Murphy and now Binner.

[Edu]

I'd try to get another endorsements as Rodríguez Sáa brothers, Solanas, Lousteau.

Solanas is a non-entity, wonder why would anyone seek his endorsement. In any case, a few days ago he made a tweet that said "Proyecto Sur, que siempre se enfrentó electoralmente al kirchnerismo y al macrismo,  propone votar contra el gobierno nacional." From which we can infer he would probably vote for noone or support Macri.

And Lousteau is another one that doesn't really matter for the national election, but apart from having meeting with the opposition governor of Mendoza he tweeted this yesterday "Alternancia, más equilibrio, balotaje @mariuvidal y no @FernandezAnibal, renovación de intendentes PBA. #lagentevotabien." Which also implies his support for macri against Scioli.


De la Sota is probably noticing right now that Macri got around 53% in Córdoba while Massa and Scioli barely reached 20% and they don't even get 40% between the two of them. If I were him I would be pressing Massa strongly to form an alliance with Macri.

[Velasco]

From the gubernatorial elections you missed (...)

Thanks, I was almost asleep.

I'd try to get another endorsements as Rodríguez Sáa brothers, Solanas, Lousteau.

Solanas is a non-entity, wonder why would anyone seek his endorsement. In any case, a few days ago he made a tweet that said "Proyecto Sur, que siempre se enfrentó electoralmente al kirchnerismo y al macrismo,  propone votar contra el gobierno nacional." From which we can infer he would probably vote for noone or support Macri.

And Lousteau is another one that doesn't really matter for the national election, but apart from having meeting with the opposition governor of Mendoza he tweeted this yesterday "Alternancia, más equilibrio, balotaje @mariuvidal y no @FernandezAnibal, renovación de intendentes PBA. #lagentevotabien." Which also implies his support for macri against Scioli.


De la Sota is probably noticing right now that Macri got around 53% in Córdoba while Massa and Scioli barely reached 20% and they don't even get 40% between the two of them. If I were him I would be pressing Massa strongly to form an alliance with Macri.

Solanas is about to quit politics and doesn't count.

I'm almost certain that Lousteau will be a key actor in the near future. Don't you think that a rising star like him counts a little more than the retiring film maker? 

As for De la Sota, the result in Córdoba seems to confirm that provincial Peronists are firmly anti-Kirchner. There were previous rumours on a possible understanding between the provincial leader and Scioli, in order to put an end to the Kirchner's mistreatment to Córdoba (Cristina treated badly former BsAs Gov Scioli, too). But people has spoken and that alliance is totally discarded. Lavagna, who is from the province and a friend of De la Sota, assures that Scioli offered him a cabinet post. Such offer was refused (on Scioli's camp they deny talks with Lavagna). Former Minister of Economy says that Scioli is unable to drop the Ultra-K people and hopes that an agreement between Macri and Massa pushes the first to the centre.

On a separate issue, turnout increase might explain the surprising election results. About 2 million of voters more turned out on Sunday (80.8%, 74% in the PASO ). Mauricio Macri added 1.6 million votes, Sergio Massa 0.5 and Daniel Scioli only 0.2.

[RodPresident]

From the gubernatorial elections you missed (...)

Thanks, I was almost asleep.

I'd try to get another endorsements as Rodríguez Sáa brothers, Solanas, Lousteau.

Solanas is a non-entity, wonder why would anyone seek his endorsement. In any case, a few days ago he made a tweet that said "Proyecto Sur, que siempre se enfrentó electoralmente al kirchnerismo y al macrismo,  propone votar contra el gobierno nacional." From which we can infer he would probably vote for noone or support Macri.

And Lousteau is another one that doesn't really matter for the national election, but apart from having meeting with the opposition governor of Mendoza he tweeted this yesterday "Alternancia, más equilibrio, balotaje @mariuvidal y no @FernandezAnibal, renovación de intendentes PBA. #lagentevotabien." Which also implies his support for macri against Scioli.


De la Sota is probably noticing right now that Macri got around 53% in Córdoba while Massa and Scioli barely reached 20% and they don't even get 40% between the two of them. If I were him I would be pressing Massa strongly to form an alliance with Macri.

Solanas is about to quit politics and doesn't count.

I'm almost certain that Lousteau will be a key actor in the near future. Don't you think that a rising star like him counts a little more than the retiring film maker? 

As for De la Sota, the result in Córdoba seems to confirm that provincial Peronists are firmly anti-Kirchner. There were previous rumours on a possible understanding between the provincial leader and Scioli, in order to put an end to the Kirchner's mistreatment to Córdoba (Cristina treated badly former BsAs Gov Scioli, too). But people has spoken and that alliance is totally discarded. Lavagna, who is from the province and a friend of De la Sota, assures that Scioli offered him a cabinet post. Such offer was refused (on Scioli's camp they deny talks with Lavagna). Former Minister of Economy says that Scioli is unable to drop the Ultra-K people and hopes that an agreement between Macri and Massa pushes the first to the centre.

On a separate issue, turnout increase might explain the surprising election results. About 2 million of voters more turned out on Sunday (80.8%, 74% in the PASO ). Mauricio Macri added 1.6 million votes, Sergio Massa 0.5 and Daniel Scioli only 0.2.

And De La Sota has personal problems from troubling 70s in Peronist Youth with Carlos Zannini that would prevent endorsement. But I can see that almost every non-Macri anti-K  leader saying no to Scioli, but fearing to endorse Macri to fearing backfire from a Neoliberal adjustment. But with Scioli's defeat, Dissident Peronism will lose their raison d'etre. Some will join PRO and others would go back into Kirchnerist ranks. Thinking about 2019, I can see Schiaretti (governor of Cordoba) as a good option of running mate to Cristina.
And about Michetti as Vice President. We know that was a maneuver to appease her after Macri supporting Rodriguez Larreta, and this was only because UCR infighting about a running-mate candidate. Any chance of an "no es positivo" again? But Senate will be fun in next 2 years with Anibal Fernandez vs. Julio Cobos.

[Famous Mortimer]

Why would Scioli's defeat take away Dissident Peronism's raison d'etre if Kirchner is just going to come back? Do the Dissident Peronists dislike him more than Kirchner? I would have thought it would have been the opposite, since they're more conservative and Scioli is more conservative.

[Velasco]

[Tender Branson]

Today is the runoff.

Macri is expected to win in a landslide and hand the Kirchner-leftists quite a defeat.