2015 Election Season in Argentina (1st Round, Oct 25 / Runoff Nov 22)

[Hydera]

Predictions anybody?

Marcri 54%

Scioli: 46%

[Paleobrazilian]

Exit polls show Macri about 10% ahead.

[Paleobrazilian]

The results are now being counted: http://www.resultados.gob.ar/balotage/dat99/DPR99999A.htm

[Donnie]

The results are now being counted: http://www.resultados.gob.ar/balotage/dat99/DPR99999A.htm

thx

[Paleobrazilian]

Macri winning by nearly 45% in Cordoba LOL. He may even lose BA Province by the end of the day.

[Paleobrazilian]

In the end it was closer than expected, but Macri wins by about 4.5%. What a gorgeous day for Argentina. I hope this is the 1st step for a better Latin America. Goodbye, Cristina.

[Donnie]

Imho Macri will be below 52.0% in the end. But still a nice win coming
from behind.
Why is Cordoba so right-wing ?

[RodPresident]

Imho Macri will be below 52.0% in the end. But still a nice win.
Why is Cordoba so right-wing ?

UCR historically is very strong in Cordoba province, they only lose province after forming Alliance. And De La Sota have a youth feud with Zanini (Scioli's running-mate).
In San Luis, Rodriguez Sáa's home province, Macri is gaining by 2-to-1.
But this a face-saving defeat for Scioli, as it means that he was defeated by a closer-than-expected margin and that he can be one of leaders to rebuild Peronism. And Cristina will be strong for 2019.

[Skye]

Yeah! Go get 'em Macri!

[Hash]

With 98.66% reporting, Macri has won with 51.44%. What's interesting is that he won despite a narrow loss in the province of Buenos Aires, where Scioli has a bit over 51% of the vote.

[Hydera]

With 98.66% reporting, Macri has won with 51.44%. What's interesting is that he won despite a narrow loss in the province of Buenos Aires, where Scioli has a bit over 51% of the vote.

If im not mistaken, there are a lot of shantytowns bordering between Buenos Aires and Buenos Aires province despite Macri winning big elsewhere in the province. Which pushed Scioli slightly over 50%.

[Velasco]

Imho Macri will be below 52.0% in the end. But still a nice win coming
from behind.
Why is Cordoba so right-wing ?

The actual moment of turn took place in the first round. Since then, Macri was ahead in the polls and the big favorite to win the runoff. Given that the margin was so narrow and that Macri is lacking of a majority in the Argentinian Congress (FPV and allies control the Senate and most of the provinces), the new president will have to negotiate. The economic situation is delicate because of internal and external factors and implementing adjustments is going to be more difficult for Macri than it had been for Scioli, who has the support of the FPV machine and the unions (they are overwhelmingly Peronist). Despite campaign rhetoric, there's no actual ideological difference between Macri and Scioli. Both have a similar social background, both are practicing Catholic and against abortion. Obviously Cristina and her die hard supporters (called ultra K) are desolate, but Scioli was never perceived as 'their' candidate. Scioli was the unopposed candidate in the FPV primary because he was the only viable candidate. CFdK renounced to field someone closer to her, but on the other hand she didn't throw herself in propping up Scioli. Only time will tell if she will come back in the next election or her chances are irreversibly damaged. I wouldn't give up her for dead, just in case.

As for Cordoba, the province is anti Kirchner but not necessarily more right wing than other parts of the country. Don't try to analyse politics in Argentina on the assumption that there's a neat left-right divide, because in all likelihood you will fail. 

[buritobr]

Would a Social Justice Warrior have done better than Scioli?

[Famous Mortimer]

Would a Social Justice Warrior have done better than Scioli?

Do you mean a generally more left-wing candidate? I doubt SJWs exist in Argentina.

[Intell]

This result is horrible.

[Edu]

Posted this on AAD



So, it's official, Cristina Kirchner is no longer president. So now we have President Macri you are thinking...well...not yet, for the next 12 hours till midday of thurdsay 10th of December the president is oficially the provisional president of the senate Federico Pinedo (PRO). Why this happened? well, there has been a ridiculous controversy over the past few weeks about where the oath of office and the subsequent ceremony where to take place. The Kirchnerists wanted everything done in Congress (like it was done a couple of times) and the Macristas wanted half in Congress and half in the government house which is the Pink House (like it's traditionally done). Why this discussion happened? several theories abound but going into them today will make me go to sleep at 3 AM, we'll leave it for later.

Long story short, the tone of the conflict escalated, Macri accused Cristina of doing everything she could to disrupt the transition, Cristina claimed that Macri called her and shouted and threatened her (which sounds like bullsh**t), the judiciary was brought into this and in the end a judge ruled in favor of Macri and declared that the term of Kirchner officially expires at 23:59 of Wednesday, so here we are.

Cristina will not go to the oath or the ceremony and every Kirchnerist deputy will also be missing. The kirchnerist senators were given the freedom to do what they want but I don't expect to see a lot of them there. Some kirchnerist governors already announced that they would be attending anyway.

So, eh, congrats president Pinedo

[Hash]

You didn't mention the even more hilarious part about how Cristina's gang seized control of the presidency's official Twitter account and has refused to surrender it, turning it into an (now unofficial) Kirchnerista account 'reminiscing' her and her husband's presidencies. I was very pleased to hear that the crazy lady was intent on acting like a crazy lady till the end.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

If this is how they act when they have to transition out of power, then good riddance to them.