Election Night 2036

[ElectionsGuy]

Background Information:

Presidencies since 2016:

Hillary Clinton: 2017-2021 (D-NY)
Scott Walker: 2021-2029 (R-WI)
Patrick Murphy: 2029-2037 (D-FL)

Senate since 2016:

2017-2023: Republican
2023-2031: Democratic
2031-2033: Republican
2033-2035: Democratic
2035-2037: Republican

House since 2016:

2017-2027: Republican
2027-2031: Democratic
2031-2037: Republican

Racial Makeup of America:

49% Non-Hispanic White
14% Non-Hispanic Black
9% Asian
2% Native American
2% Other

26% Hispanic of any race

Religious Makeup of America:

69% Christian
-   44% Protestant
-   25% Catholic
25% Unaffiliated
2% Jewish
4% Other

Income and Education in America:

Average Household Income: $61,000

$0-40,000: 30%
$40,000 - $90,000: 45%
$90,000 and higher: 25%

High School or less: 12%
Some College: 22%
College Graduate: 45%
Postgraduates: 21%

Election Night!

Chris Hayes Good evening America on this election night 2036. I’m Chris Hayes, you’re watching MSNBC on November 4th, 2036. I’m here with my colleagues Rachel Maddow, Krystal Ball, Steve Kornacki, and Ari Melber. It has been a very long campaign, and a very interesting one at that. Historians are calling this one of the most interesting presidential elections in a century. With that, tonight is expected to have the highest turnout we’ve seen in a long time. Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona is facing off against the libertarian firebrand Governor Justin Amash of Michigan. President Murphy has been campaigning for Senator Gallego actively in the battleground states throughout the last half of the year. Gallego would be the first Hispanic president of the United States, Amash would be the first Arab-American president of the United States. Both would make history.

Gallego is running on a number of progressive reforms, such as expansion of entitlements and more funding to social security, which critics are calling a bankrupt scheme that is failing. Interestingly, he is also running on abolishing the Electoral College, which is the first time a candidate has brought up that issue. Of course, the Electoral College is still active for this election. He is also running on getting money out of politics once and for all, calling for public funding of elections. Governor Amash, on the other hand, is running on reducing the size of government, abolishing several departments and agencies, cutting spending, but also reducing intervention overseas.

Ruben Gallego won the Democratic primaries fairly easily, only having a few Democratic challengers. Among them, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, Jared Polis of Ohio, and Jason Carter of Georgia. He got just over 50% of the primary vote while the others got 10-20%.

Justin Amash, on the other hand, faced a tough run from the establishment Republicans, however in a Republican primary that is more war-weary from the intervention in Saudi Arabia under Murphy’s watch, Amash was the go to guy. He ended up barely making it out, others that ran against him include Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Mia Love of Utah, and Matt Bevin of Kentucky. Cotton was especially critical of Amash’s foreign policy, calling him ‘the weakest candidate Republicans have ever put up’. Nationally he got about 32% of the vote, with the others scattered just below that mark.

 - - - Dialogue between commentators - - -

Maddow: Coming up, the first polls close in Georgia, Kentucky, Indiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. Don’t miss them. This is MSNBC.

[JonathanSwift]

Pretty interesting so far. Who are the Vice Presidential candidates?

[ElectionsGuy]

Pretty interesting so far. Who are the Vice Presidential candidates?

I should've mentioned that. Seth Moulton for the Democrats and George P Bush for the Republicans.

[Vern]

Can't wait!

[ElectionsGuy]

Maddow: Welcome back to MSNBC on election night 2036. It is 7:00 Eastern Standard Time and the polls have closed in 6 states. We have projections and characterizations coming to you right now.

Virginia

With only 2% in it is too early to call in the state of Virginia, but so far the numbers and predictions look good for Gallego. The state has not gone Republican since 2020. 15 electoral votes at stake here.

2% in

Amash: 59%
Gallego: 38%

Kentucky

The solidly Republican state of Kentucky is in the bag for Amash, as of NBC projections. 7 electoral votes for Governor Amash.

22% in

✔Amash: 62%
  Gallego: 35%

North Carolina

It is too close to call in the state of North Carolina, President Murphy did win this state both times but this state has always been very competitive. 17 electoral votes at risk, the Republicans are counting on this.  

4% in

53% Gallego
45% Amash

Georgia

In the state of Georgia, it is also too close to call with its 18 electoral votes. Georgia has been trending Democratic over the last 30 years and it is notable that the Republican grip is weakening, although both of the candidates have campaigned hard here.

1% in

Amash: 65%
Gallego: 34%

South Carolina

2% in

In South Carolina, Amash is a likely victor here but its still too early to call. Some democratic strategests say its in play but the majority of estimates say Amash has the better chance. A good 10 electoral vote prize here.

Gallego: 59%
Amash: 40%

Indiana

Finally, in Indiana, Amash is the projected winner for this state which has been pretty Republican for most of its history. That is 10 electoral votes for Mr. Amash

2% in

✔Amash: 59%
  Gallego: 37%

Amash: 17
Gallego: 0
Not Decided: 60

That wraps up our 7 PM Eastern Time Projections. We will get back to some of those states that are too close and too early later once we have more information.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Puerto Rico?

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: Those were some interesting feedback so far, even if little is known. The key battlegrounds this cycle seem to be Georgia, Florida, Arizona, Illinois, New Hampshire, and countless others. There are some that say even Texas is a battleground. But one of the more important things coming out of the election tonight will be how groups voted. NBC has early exit poll data that could spell hints to tonight’s results. For that we go to our friend Ari Melber.

Melber: Thank you, Chris. The first information we have is the President’s approval ratings. As of tonight, 42% approve while 56% disapprove and 2% weren’t sure. That doesn’t spell well for Gallego, but the last poll heading into tonight had him ahead by just one point though, so he’s not out of the game by any means.

Approve – 83% Gallego, 16% Amash
Dissaprove – 75% Amash, 23% Gallego
Not sure – 56% Gallego, 43% Amash

When asked about the state of the economy, only 13% said excellent, to 29% that said good, 35% that said bad, and 23% that said terrible.

Excellent – 88% Gallego, 11% Amash
Good – 67% Gallego, 31% Amash
Bad – 52% Amash, 46% Gallego
Terrible – 93% Amash, 6% Gallego

When asked about foreign intervention, 69% of Americans said they wanted less military intervention abroad compared to just 29% who wanted more. This is an especially interesting issue as both candidates said they would pull back troops from the Middle East.

More intervention – 62% Amash, 37% Gallego
Less Intervention – 55% Gallego, 43% Amash
Not sure – 70% Amash, 29% Gallego

When it comes to government, more people are interested in keeping the welfare state. Only 32% of Americans favor cutting social programs while 68% favor keeping them.

Cut social programs – 94% Amash, 4% Gallego
Keep social programs – 71% Gallego, 28% Amash

However, when asked whether they want a more active government in personal and economic spheres, 56% said they want less government involvement while 43% said they wanted more.

More active government – 87% Gallego, 11% Amash
Less active government – 79% Amash, 20% Gallego

We’ll be back with more data, specifically demographics, at a later period. Back to you Chris.

[ElectionsGuy]

Puerto Rico?

Hasn't become a state and there's no way I can "create" it on the EV map.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Save the GOP primary map to your computer and make it in MS Paint.

[ElectionsGuy]

Democratic Primary:



Ruben Gallego - Red: 2,470 Delegates
Jason Carter - Blue: 546 Delegates
Martin Heinrich - Orange: 123 Delegates
Jared Polis - Purple: 119 Delegates
Other/Unallocated: 401 Delegates

National Primary Vote

Gallego - 51.4%
Carter - 19.7%
Heinrich - 13.3%
Polis - 12.4%
Others - 3.2%

Republican Primary:



Justin Amash - Yellow: 886 Delegates
Tom Cotton - Orange: 842 Delegates
Mia Love - Purple: 397 Delegates
Matt Bevin - Red: 164 Delegates
Others/Unallocated: 344 Delegates

National Primary Vote

Amash - 31.8%
Cotton - 29.9%
Love - 20.1%
Bevin - 7.7%
Others - 10.5%

[Senator Cris]

Keep up the great work!

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: Alright, thank you Ari. So with all that said, the country based on those statistics is in a an anti-incumbent mood, but yet the race is neck and neck. Why is that?

Maddow: I think its because you have this guy on the Republican side that many conservatives have a hard time getting under. Granted, Governor Amash did pick Texas Governor [George P.] Bush to balance out his libertarianism with more mainstream conservative ideas, but it was only appeasement because he absolutely needed voters for the ticket. When Tom Cotton didn't even say if he would vote for him or not, there's an issue with some in the base.  You also have a very progressive Democratic nominee for the first time in decades, and voters in this country like progressive ideas. When you go to the precise issues Americans support the progressive agenda, despite all the claims its not true. That's why in the exit polls we just showed Americans want to keep social security despite wanting to lessen the size of government, a much vaguer question.

Ball: That's why this election is so important. I think the nomination of Amash really is a turning point in Republican Party, just as Goldwater was 70 years ago. It shows that the Republican voters are willing to buck the establishment every once in a while. And, in the Democratic side, a decently progressive candidate, probably one of the most since Barack Obama. You'd think this would cause for massive polarization and voters feeling left out, but the turnout is the highest in thirty years. It's amazing.

(other non-important dialogue by commentators continues)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Interesting. What happened to West Virginia? Did a lot of people move out?

[ElectionsGuy]

Interesting. What happened to West Virginia? Did a lot of people move out?

The state's economy gets worse and it passes Mississippi for poorest state in America. Also, yes, population declines to about 1.5 Million. Of course, just playing around, I don't expect that to happen for real, but West Virginia's decline looks pretty bad as of now.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maddow: Its 7:30 PM on the east coast, and polls closed in two states, West Virginia and Ohio. One very important, one not so much.

West Virgina

In the state of West Virginia we can project that Justin Amash Is the winner of its 3 electoral votes. The state’s officers are handily behind Amash who has vowed to fight against intrusive energy and environmental regulation.

3% in

✔ Amash: 66%
   Gallego: 31%

Ohio:

In the state of Ohio, on the other hand, it is too close to call, but the NBC election team is saying Amash has an advantage. Going into the election Amash is expected to run better in the Midwest than other Republicans have in the past.

1%

Gallego: 60%
Amash: 39%

Let’s check on the other poll closings from 7:00 to update you on that. Ah, yes, Virginia is still too early to call but again Gallego is said to have an advantage

18% in

Amash: 55%
Gallego: 43%

Okay, we have a projection, in the state of South Carolina we can project Justin Amash as the winner of its 10 electoral votes.

11% in

✔Amash: 52%
  Gallego: 47%

Into its northern neighbor, North Carolina, it is still too close to call as expected. It is expected to run long into the night. A big 17 electoral prize there.

9% in

Gallego: 54%
Amash: 44%

Lastly, in Georgia it is also too close to call. With the massive growth of the Atlanta in the last decade, this has become a toss-up state. Governor Carter has been influential in this race. Again, a big electoral prize here of 18 electoral votes.

4% in

Amash: 61%
Gallego: 38%

Amash: 30
Gallego: 0
Too close: 51
Too early: 15

National Popular Vote:

2% in

Amash: 53%
Gallego: 45%

That’s what we have for the 7:30 Eastern projections by NBC. Too much of this so far is just that we don't have enough information to project the states. Certainly in an hour or two we'll have a better look at the national vote.

So far, we have 4 states for Amash, a total of 30 electoral votes, but still none for Gallego.

[Cranberry]

This looks interesting. Please continue!

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes Not a surprise that West Virginia went the way it did, but Ohio will be very critical to the race. Amash absolutely needs Ohio if he wants to win, if he doesn't win it would be a blow to him. Also, is it a surprise South Carolina went to Amash as early as it did?

Kornacki: No, Democrats have been talking about it but it was more wishful thinking than anything else. There are so many battlegrounds tonight. Certainly I think the dynamic nature of the candidates is somewhat realigning some of the state’s results tonight. We see states like Illinois, Arizona, Texas, and even Mississippi, competitive. States that just 10 years ago seemed unthinkable to be competitive. A lot of this also has to do with population growth and demographic change and so forth, but I think tonight has the potential to be a realigning election.

Hayes: Yeah, coming up at 8:00 here were going to have poll closings in many important states including Florida, Pennsylvania, and Illinois. These races will start defining the race. The thing is, there’s a lot of states with many electoral votes, so it’s about winning those large states more than it is just winning battlegrounds in general.

Maddow: Hey Steve, you said you had a map of all the competitive states in the presidential race, correct? Can... can we put up that map to show the viewers what's going on tonight?

Kornacki: Certainly

Maddow: Wow, that's a huge amount of states.

Kornacki: Yeah, I considered two things when making this map. Polls and history. Any states with a margin under 6% for either candidate are here, and also any state that may not fit that criteria, but has been consistently competitive in the past 3 presidential elections. As you can see, a lot of Midwest states but also more of focus on the sunbelt.

 - - Other dialogue continues - -

Hayes: In just a few minutes, we will have poll closings in 16 states plus the District of Columbia, so don’t miss that. Stay with us.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maddow It is 8:00 PM on the east coast and there are a massive 17 states plus the District of Columbia scrolling on your screen. We will start with the most important ones of the batch.

Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Vermont.

Florida

In Florida it is too close to call with 33 electoral votes. This is a big state where the Hispanic vote could make the difference. As you can see, already a third of the vote is in because most of the state actually closed at 7:00.

34% in

Gallego: 52%
Amash: 47%

Illinois

In Illinois, it is also too close to call, however NBC is saying that Gallego has a lead based off the early exit polls. Republicans say that the Republican trend in the rural areas of the state benefit them, however Democrats say that Cook County and the Chicago suburbs will deliver the state for them. 18 electoral votes.

5% in

Gallego: 75%
Amash: 23%

Mississippi

In Mississippi the characterization by NBC is that it is too close to call. Only 5 electoral votes but at this point it could make or break the election. It is the only state in America where over 40% of its electorate is black.

2% in

Amash: 51%
Gallego: 49%

New Hampshire

In New Hampshire, it is also too close to call. The smallest electoral prize of any battleground but it is as close as a hair.

10% in

Gallego: 49%
Amash: 49%

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, its 18 electoral votes are highly contentious and up for grabs by both campaigns. Both campaigns have said they need the state. It is characterized as too close to call.

3% in

Gallego: 71%
Amash: 28%

Alabama

In Alabama, there is a projection. Governer Amash is the winner of its 8 electoral votes with little shock.

0% in

✔Amash
  Gallego

Connecticut

In Connecticut, Senator Gallego is the projected winner of its 6 electoral votes.

1% in

✔Gallego: 58%
  Amash: 40%

District of Columbia

DC projected to go to Mr Gallego. The District of Columbia has never voted for a Republican for president before and tonight it will not start doing so.

2% in

✔Gallego: 90%
  Amash: 9%

Delaware

In Delaware, another blue state, the projected winner is Ruben Gallego. 3 electoral votes for him.

0% in

✔Gallego
  Amash

Maine

Going up to Maine, its characterization is that it is too early to call, but Gallego has a lead in Maine.

1% in

Gallego: 53%
Amash: 44%

Maryland

Going back down to Maryland, Gallego is easily projected to the winner over Governor Amash of its 10 electoral votes.

3% in

✔Gallego: 65%
  Amash: 34%

Massachusetts

Classic blue Massachusetts is also in the bag for Gallego, another 10 electoral votes.

0% in

✔Gallego
  Amash

Missouri

In Missouri the projected winner is Justin Amash. 9 electoral votes.

1% in

✔Amash: 64%
  Gallego: 34%

New Jersey

In New Jersey it is too early to call, though Gallego is leading in New Jersey.

2% in

Gallego: 54%
Amash: 45%

Oklahoma

Oklahoma, possibly the reddest state in America, is projected for Amash.

1% in

✔Amash: 70%
  Gallego: 30%

Rhode Island

Conversely, Rhode Island, one of the bluest states in America, is projected for Gallego.

✔Gallego: 61%
  Amash: 37%

Tennessee

In the great state of Tennessee, Justin Amash is the projected winner.

0% in

✔Amash
  Gallego

Vermont

Finally, in Vermont, Ruben Gallego is the winner of its electoral votes. The well-known former senator Bernie Sanders who passed away just a few months ago endorsed Gallego with passion.

2% in

✔Gallego: 68%
  Amash: 30%

A lot of information just there, here is the electoral map as it stands after all those characterizations.

Amash: 65
Gallego: 38
Too Close: 128
Too Early: 31

With that huge batch of states, Amash so far has 65 electoral votes to Gallego's 38. A whopping 128 electoral votes where the polls have closed are still too close to call, while 31 are too early. So What do we make of those returns?

 - - dialogue by commentators - -

[ElectionsGuy]

 - - dialogue between commentators (8:09 PM) - -

Maddow: I'm sorry to interupt but we have a projection to make. In the state of Virginia which was previously characterized as too early to call by NBC news, it is now projected for Senator Gallego. That adds 15 electoral votes to the Senator's previous tally of 38 electoral votes to now 53 electoral votes.

49% in

✔Gallego: 50%
  Amash: 48%

[kohler]

By 2036, we would at least have The National Popular Vote bill in effect.  It would guarantee the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country.   
         
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in every presidential election. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps of pre-determined outcomes. There would no longer be a handful of 'battleground' states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in 80% of the states that now are just 'spectators' and ignored after the conventions.
         
The bill would take effect when enacted by states with a majority of Electoral College votes—that is, enough to elect a President (270 of 538). The candidate receiving the most popular votes from all 50 states (and DC) would get all the 270+ electoral votes of the enacting states.
               
By April 2015, the bill had passed 33 state legislative chambers in 22 rural, small, medium, large, red, blue, and purple states with 250 electoral votes. The bill had been enacted by 11 jurisdictions with 165 electoral votes – 61% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
               
NationalPopularVote.com      

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Go Amash!

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: Welcome back to MSNBC. It is 8:30 PM on the east coast on election night 2036. We can project right now that the House of Representatives will be retained by the Republican Party as it has been since the redistricting of 2030. This is not a projection on any specific race, but a whole projection on control of the House of Representatives. Republicans will have more than the 218 necessary for a majority. As of now, its 231 Republicans to 204 Democrats. That can of course change, but as of now that is our estimate.

✔Republicans: 231
  Democrats: 204

Now let’s get to the poll closing in the presidential race. There is only one, Arkansas, and we can project right now that Justin Amash has won that state as expected by most pundits.

Arkansas

2% in

✔Amash: 63%
  Gallego: 35%

We can also use this time right now to go back to previous states that were too early or too close to call.

In New Jersey, which had previously been characterized as too early to call, Gallego had been projected the winner during the commercial break. Even though it Is still early for that state, we have exit poll information we didn’t have before.

23% in

✔Gallego: 55%
  Amash: 44%

In the state of Florida, it is still too close to call. Now 71% in, and it is a razor thin margin between the two candidates. The good news for Gallego is that much of Miami Dade is still out, but at the same time, the northern panhandle is taking a while to report.

71% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 49%

In the state of Georgia, we can say it’s too close to call. Here are the numbers right now. Democrats are optimistic while Republicans are saying there are still way too many votes left.

48% in

Amash: 54%
Gallego: 45%

And we have a breaking new call in the state of Illinois that we just got word of, and that is that Gallego is now the projected winner of that state. 18 electoral votes for the Senator.

31% in

Gallego: 63%
Amash: 35%

Down in the state of Mississippi, it is still too close to call. If the state went to Gallego it would be the first time the state went Democratic since 1976.

37% in

Amash: 53%
Gallego: 46%

Over in North Carolina, it is too close to call again. It is notable however that Gallego has kept a lead all through the night

60% in

Gallego: 52%
Amash: 47%

In Ohio, it is still too close to call as well. We’ve been closely monitoring the results of the state throughout the night as a guiding point to who will win the election. Over half the vote in now.

52% in

Amash: 51%
Gallego: 47%

In Pennsylvania it has been characterized as too close to call. Now experts on the NBC team are stating that it is too close but Amash has an advantage. Very important notification on the state of Pennsylvania.

40% in

Gallego: 53%
Amash: 46%

In Maine, which been too early to call, is now too close to call. That is a characterization change by NBC news. That means Maine now has enough information but the margin is too narrow.

25% in

Gallego: 52%
Amash: 45%

Finally, in New Hampshire it is too close to call.

44% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 48%

Gallego: 84
Amash: 70
Too Close: 110
Too Early: 3

That wraps up our battleground states. Now let’s discuss this with our panel.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I'm trying to picture a grey haired Chris Hayes with some extra pounds.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm trying to picture a grey haired Chris Hayes with some extra pounds.

Yeah, there will likely be younger people by that point in time but there's now way in knowing who they would be. Obviously people like Matthews and Sharpton will be gone, but I imagine many of the younger anchors staying for life. I don't know how I would imagine a 60+ year old Rachel Maddow...

[Thunderbird is the word]

I'm trying to picture a grey haired Chris Hayes with some extra pounds.

Yeah, there will likely be younger people by that point in time but there's now way in knowing who they would be. Obviously people like Matthews and Sharpton will be gone, but I imagine many of the younger anchors staying for life. I don't know how I would imagine a 60+ year old Rachel Maddow...

Maybe the same but with grey hair. Also for all we know a few of them might have written books or moved on to other career ventures, but this is still fun to imagine.