Election Night 2036

[ElectionsGuy]

Todd: While we are waiting however, lets take a look at some other critical states that were decided last night that may have made or broke the election.

In Colorado, in one of the last states to call, was called for Amash. The state is known for its libertarian reputation, and it was one of the friendliest states to Amash in the Republican primary, however there is also a strong progressive presence in places like Boulder and Denver. Amash narrowly carried it out.

100% in

✔Amash: 50.5%
Gallego: 47.7%

Georgia took a long time to call as well, and also in favor of Amash. The Democrats thought they were starting to lose the election when Georgia turned out not on their side, however they obviously won as we're discussing it this morning. Governor Carter tried to play an influential role in getting out the vote in young and urban precincts accross the state. That he did, but it was outnumbered by rural, exurban, older, white areas.

100% in

✔Amash: 50.7%
Gallego: 48.2%

In Illinois, the call was for Gallego. The strong urban turnout in Cook County propelled him to victory. This one was called earlier in the evening, however the results show it wasn't a sure bet for Gallego.

100% in

✔Gallego: 52.3%
Amash: 46.5%

Neighboring Illinois is Iowa, known for its dairy farming and Midwestern values, it decided to go for Amash, in a similar margin Illinois did for Gallego.

100% in

✔Amash: 53.0%
Gallego: 45.9%

In the small state of Maine, it was also close. Even though its only 3 electoral votes, the electoral tally is such a close victory that even this state would have tipped the balance of victory.

99% in

✔Gallego: 51.2%
Amash: 46.4%

Amash's home state of Michigan was no sure bet for him. Both of his elections for Governor were close, but this one was even closer, at a bare 1/5th of a percentage separating the two candidates.

100% in

✔Amash: 49.7%
Gallego: 49.5%

In Minnesota, Amash had a narrow victory as well, but unlike Michigan, it didn't take 5 hours to call the state. Despite Amash being against farm subsidies, he seems to have a mandate from the voters.

100% in

✔Amash: 51.5%
Gallego: 47.0%

Mississippi was seen as contested, however Amash ended up winning more easily in this inelastic state where little campaigning was done.

100% in

✔Amash: 52.8%
Gallego: 46.5%

In the west, we got Nevada. Amash capitalized on how the state's nonexistent income taxes were creating progress, however voters chose to not elect him president by almost a double digit margin.

98% in

✔Gallego: 54.1%
Amash: 44.4%

New Hampshire, another small state in the northeast like Maine, was close. But unlike Maine, New Hampshire went to Amash. Not surprisingly, it was one of Amash's best states in the Republican Primary.

100% in

✔Amash: 51.1%
Gallego: 47.4%

Down south to the South Atlantic, North Carolina is another inelastic state, going for Gallego however. Gallego pumped up numbers in the Research Triangle and explained how free higher education can make the US more prosperous. It seems to have worked.

100% in

✔Gallego: 51.6%
Amash: 47.8%

Ohio, located in America's Rustbelt where economic decline is real, Amash promoted economic "freedom zones". The idea was original created by former Senator Rand Paul in his three bids for the presidency. Ohio seemed to like that message.

100% in

✔Amash: 53.3%
Gallego: 45.7%

Pennsylvania to its east, has had even more of a decline than Ohio. It too went to Amash, despite traditionally strong urban numbers for Gallego in the Philadelphia area.

100% in

✔Amash: 52.0%
Gallego: 47.1%

South Carolina was called rather early in the night, though it was still considered contested and came in closer than many other battlegrounds.

100% in

✔Amash: 52.5%
Gallego: 46.8%

Texas, the second biggest state in the union, was too early to call before Amash won its 43 electoral votes. Vast swaths of rural and suburb area outnumbered the urban Democratic vote. Democrats have been trying to win Texas for years, but it didn't happen last night.

100% in

✔Amash: 52.4%
Gallego: 45.6%

Finally, in Wisconsin, Amash narrowly carried it out. Neighboring Michigan, Amash mostly relied on the native German areas of eastern Wisconsin.

100% in

✔Amash: 50.1%
Gallego: 49.1%

[ElectionsGuy]

Todd: The important takeaways of this election are now being discussed. America is still more polarized than at any point in the past, split between libertarian conservatism and progressive liberalism. Experts perhaps see this as the millennial generation taking hold on American politics. Many are already casting this election as a turning point, where the parties are altered to where they were before.

Both candidates, Ruben Gallego and Justin Amash challenged the establishment's cause, and ran against them. Although the Republican brand has not entirely opened up to Amash's cause, last night's result prove that he won 49% of America's vote anyway. The Republican party is beginning to run more and more 'small government' candidates, as evangelicals and militarism become less and less of a presence. On the Democrat's end, Gallego had won the Democratic primary more easily, and the Democratic party opened up to more progressive and socialistic ideas years before, but that didn't mean he still didn't face challenges. Many of his colleagues in the house and senate refused to endorse him, and the DNC debated at one point trying to persuade his views in a direction more friendly to big banks and corporations. This 'progressive 2.0' movement existed in full, even going back to Hillary Clinton. The Young Turks, the online show with a powerful audience, was one of the key forces behind it. But last night, it won an election.

Will America now preside over a progressive future with a left wing leader, or will the movement fall short due to Congress, people rising up against it, or other unforeseen circumstances? That question is the question of the next four years in politics.

[/]

Yay!

[ElectionsGuy]

(7:25 AM)

Todd: Ruben Gallego is said to come out in just a minute to speak at his campaign headquarters in Phoenix, Arizona...

*Loud Cheers*

Gallego: Good morning America! Thank you, thank you. After a long Tuesday night of disputes, recounts, and close races, it is finally over. We can celebrate, on this Wednesday morning, as this is a time of prosperity, equality, and justice. We have fought the countless fights of bringing honor and compassion back to the White House. I spoke with Governor Amash and credited him with running an energetic, consistent, and fluent campaign. He deserves honor for that, and I thanked him for it.

(later)... under previous administrations, we have not been able to achieve the goals that we have been waiting for. We have been waiting for free and fair elections, yet we have not gotten them. We have been waiting for rights to be given to the working people of this country, we have not gotten them. We have been waiting to improve our standing in the world not through the use of military force, but through strategic diplomacy. We have been waiting for an expansion of financial coverage for our sick, disabled, elderly, and poor Americans. We have been waiting for a lot of things, that I have pledged to do while in office. Ladies and gentlemen, we don't have to wait any longer! We cannot wait any longer, the time is now. We are in crisis as a nation, desperate for economic and political reform.

(later)... America, we have fought the long fight, and we have won. The first effort I will put in as president will be to bring true democracy to the United States, by getting money out of politics and pushing a popular vote order for presidential elections. We will do what the people elected us to do. That is, to hold us accountable, restore justice, peace, prosperity, and equality to the greatest country on Earth. Gold bless all of you and God bless America!

*Loud Cheers*

Todd: That was Senator Gallego's very passionate speech at Gallego headquarters in Phoenix. He seems thrilled to be President-elect. He has a very good ability to intertwine ideological rhetoric that could possibly be divisive with compassion and kindness. It is notable that Mr Gallego has been a vocal critic of the Murphy administration. Even though President Murphy has campaigned for him, it doesn't necessarily mean he has campaigned for Murphy. Murphy has been rather unpopular, so it is common that the incumbent party tries to distant themselves from the unpopular leader.

Coming up, we will see if Amash headquarters in Grand Rapids has a concession speech, we will get that to you when it occurs, stay with us.

[ElectionsGuy]

(8:14 AM EST)

Todd: We are back on MSNBC the morning after election day. Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona has become the President-elect of the United States. We are probably going to hear from Governor Justin Amash of Michigan soon. We have already heard Gallego's speech. It was very passionate and energetic, yet gracious at the same time.

 - - fast forward: 8:22 AM EST - -

Todd: Here is Amash at his headquarters in Grand Rapids, Michigan...

*Loud Cheers*

Amash: Thank you! Thank you! I can't thank the American people enough, for giving me this chance to run for the most powerful office in the world. It is an honor. Even though, we didn't get the result we wanted tonight, we had a very strong showing of liberty all across the country, and that can only mean great things are coming our way. About an hour ago, I spoke with Gallego and congratulated him on his victory and his dedication to America. I think he deserves a round of applause.

(later)...As President, I would've done away with the several departments of unneeded bureaucracy in the federal government, such as the Department of Education, Department of Energy, and Department of Education. I would've done away with spying that infringes upon the fourth amendment. I would've employed a non-interventionist foreign policy, not an isolationist one. I would've cut taxes for all Americans struggling to make ends meet. I would've advocated for a Balanced Budget Amendment, to stop the reckless spending. While many of these things we will inevitably not be able to do, President-elect Gallego will certainly bring us into another era in America, and we need to accept that.

(later)... Fellow Americans, the movement for liberty, limited government, and free markets had a very strong showing. This was a very close election, hence why I'm making this speech now instead of last night *audience laughs*. Many people thought we weren't electable, that we were out of the mainstream, that were naive and eccentric in our ways. 49% of the country proved them wrong last night by voting for the Amash/Bush ticket! And while I'm sad that I won't be President of the United States, I'm confident in America's future that we will bring common sense back to Washington. I thank every one of you for motivating me to run. Gold bless America!

*Loud Cheers*

Todd: That was Governor Amash's very confident and gracious speech at Amash headquarters in Grand Rapids. He had quite a happy tone for a presidential losing candidate. He said he was confident in the future, and that he was grateful just to run for president. It is notable that he fought many off in the Republican establishment just to run for President, and he was doubted by most at first. While some can say that he wasn't the best speaker of campaigner, he certainly was very bold and very brave.

[ElectionsGuy]

FULL RESULTS

Ruben Gallego (D-AZ)/Seth Moulton (D-MA): 271, 49.7%
Justin Amash (R-MI)/George P Bush (R-TX): 267, 48.9%

Alabama:

✔Amash: 58.2%
Gallego: 41.1%

Alaska:

✔Amash: 57.7%
Gallego: 39.2%

Arizona:

✔Gallego: 49.6%
Amash: 49.2%

Arkansas:

✔Amash: 63.2%
Gallego: 34.8%

California:

✔Gallego: 62.3%
Amash: 36.5%

Colorado:

✔Amash: 50.5%
Gallego: 47.7%

Connecticut:

✔Gallego: 56.5%
Amash: 42.0%

Delaware:

✔Gallego: 59.6%
Amash: 39.6%

District of Columbia:

✔Gallego: 92.2%
Amash: 7.4%

Florida:

✔Gallego: 49.4%
Amash: 49.3%

Georgia:

✔Amash: 50.7%
Gallego: 48.2%

Hawaii:

✔Gallego: 62.5%
Amash: 36.4%

Idaho:

✔Amash: 64.0%
Gallego: 32.0%

Illinois:

✔Gallego: 52.3%
Amash: 46.5%

Indiana:

✔Amash: 59.6%
Gallego: 38.9%

Iowa:

✔Amash: 53.0%
Gallego: 45.9%

Kansas:

✔Amash: 61.9%
Gallego: 37.2%

Kentucky:

✔Amash: 63.7%
Gallego: 35.2%

Louisiana:

✔Amash: 57.5%
Gallego: 42.0%

Maine:

✔Gallego: 51.3%
Amash: 46.4%

Maryland:

✔Gallego: 64.0%
Amash: 33.3%

Massachusetts:

✔Gallego: 61.3%
Amash: 37.9%

Michigan:

✔Amash: 49.7%
Gallego: 49.5%

Minnesota:

✔Amash: 51.5%
Gallego: 47.0%

Mississippi:

✔Amash: 52.8%
Gallego: 46.5%

Missouri:

✔Amash: 57.2%
Gallego: 41.9%

Montana:

✔Amash: 59.3%
Gallego: 38.8%

Nebraska:

✔Amash: 62.4%
Gallego: 37.0%

Nevada:

✔Gallego: 54.2%
Amash: 44.2%

New Hampshire:

✔Amash: 51.1%
Gallego: 47.4%

New Jersey:

✔Gallego: 55.6%
Amash: 43.9%

New Mexico:

✔Gallego: 53.5%
Amash: 44.9%

New York:

✔Gallego: 60.4%
Amash: 38.5%

North Carolina:

✔Gallego: 51.6%
Amash: 47.8%

North Dakota:

✔Amash: 61.1%
Gallego: 37.2%

Ohio:

✔Amash: 53.3%
Gallego: 45.7%

Oklahoma:

✔Amash: 65.9%
Gallego: 34.1%

Oregon:

✔Gallego: 57.0%
Amash: 40.3%

Pennsylvania:

✔Amash: 52.0%
Gallego: 47.1%

Rhode Island:

✔Gallego: 61.8%
Amash: 37.6%

South Carolina:

✔Amash: 52.5%
Gallego: 46.8%

South Dakota:

✔Amash: 60.1%
Gallego: 38.6%

Tennessee:

✔Amash: 61.5%
Gallego: 36.9%

Texas:

✔Amash: 52.4%
Gallego: 45.6%

Utah:

✔Amash: 63.8%
Gallego: 35.0%

Vermont:

✔Gallego: 67.7%
Amash: 31.3%

Virginia:

✔Gallego: 55.2%
Amash: 44.1%

Washington:

✔Gallego: 60.0%
Amash: 38.6%

West Virginia:

✔Amash: 65.2%
Gallego: 32.9%

Wisconsin:

✔Amash: 50.1%
Gallego: 49.1%

Wyoming:

✔Amash: 70.9%
Gallego: 26.6%

[ElectionsGuy]

County Maps



Red: Amash
Blue: Gallego



Dark Red: Amash >70%
Medium Red: Amash 60-70%
Light Red: Amash <60%
Light Blue: Gallego <60%
Medium Blue: Gallego 60-70%
Dark Blue: Gallego >70%

[ElectionsGuy]

"Historical" Presidential Results

2016

Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Cory Booker (D-NJ): 294, 50.1%
Marco Rubio (R-FL)/Carly Fiorina (R-CA): 244, 48.3%

2020

Scott Walker (R-WI)/Nikki Haley (R-SC): 396, 53.7%
Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Cory Booker (D-NJ): 142, 42.3%

2020 Census Changes

2024

Scott Walker (R-WI)/Nikki Haley (R-SC): 307, 51.5%
Joe Kennedy (D-MA)/Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): 231, 47.8%

2028

Patrick Murphy (D-FL)/Joaquin Castro (D-TX): 334, 49.9%
Rand Paul (R-KY)/Carlos Curbelo (R-FL): 204, 48.8%

2032

Patrick Murphy (D-FL)/Joaquin Castro (D-TX): 349, 52.2%
Tom Cotton (R-AR)/Duncan Hunter (R-CA): 189, 47.0%

[Skill and Chance]

Very, very well done!  It obviously didn't become as relevant as I thought, but I would be interested to know the 2036 SCOTUS composition?

[Skill and Chance]

County Maps



Red: Amash
Blue: Gallego



Dark Red: Amash >70%
Medium Red: Amash 60-70%
Light Red: Amash <60%
Light Blue: Gallego <60%
Medium Blue: Gallego 60-70%
Dark Blue: Gallego >70%

It's surprising how similar the maps look to 2008-12 in the South, when the margins have changed by 5% or more in some places.

[ElectionsGuy]

Very, very well done!  It obviously didn't become as relevant as I thought, but I would be interested to know the 2036 SCOTUS composition?

Elena Kagan - appointed by Obama
Sonia Sotomayor - appointed by Obama
John Roberts - appointed by Bush
Ginsburg replacement - appointed by Clinton
Scalia replacement - apponted by Clinton
Kennedy replacement - apointed by Walker
Breyer replacement - appointed by Walker
Alito replacement - appointed by Murphy
Thomas replacement - appointed by Murphy

So, probably a left-leaning court?

[Skill and Chance]

Very, very well done!  It obviously didn't become as relevant as I thought, but I would be interested to know the 2036 SCOTUS composition?

Elena Kagan - appointed by Obama
Sonia Sotomayor - appointed by Obama
John Roberts - appointed by Bush
Ginsburg replacement - appointed by Clinton
Scalia replacement - apponted by Clinton
Kennedy replacement - apointed by Walker
Breyer replacement - appointed by Walker
Alito replacement - appointed by Murphy
Thomas replacement - appointed by Murphy

So, probably a left-leaning court?

It would certainly be interesting if the sitting justices retired with that little regard for the president's ideology!  Based on senate control, I have to imagine all of the bolded ones would have to be quite moderate.  If Kennedy stepped down under unified R control, I could see them confirming someone like Scalia to his seat in revenge for Clinton flipping the court.  Also, I have to imagine Roberts would drift noticeably right on a 6D/3R appointed court.   

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Very good so far. Interesting that the last remaining Democratic foothold in white rural America, eastern Iowa/southwestern Wisconsin/southeastern Minnesota/northwestern Illinois, is breaking up and starting to go red.