Election Night 2036

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: So we have many interesting revelations here. Maine is now too close to call, Illinois went to Gallego, Florida and Georgia are very tight, and many of the Rust Belt battlegrounds such as Ohio and Pennsylvania are too close to call still. Do we see Democrats at all losing faith in some of these swing states, like Ohio and Pennsylvania in particular?

Ball: Well, not exactly. Illinois was just called for Gallego, so I think that's good news. Even though it has been a blue state, Republicans really tried to contest it this time and failed. Even though Amash went into inner city Chicago and campaigned, numbers show about 69% of Cook County is going to Gallego still, so it didn't do much good. There is still about half or more than half of the vote in both Ohio and Pennsylvania left, so I think Gallego can still pull out victories there, but they will be tough.

Kornacki: We also have to pay crucial attention to these sunbelt states. Florida and Georgia are both really tight right now, as well as North Carolina. We did call Virginia for Gallego a little while ago, but Amash can still sweep the rest. With that said, it looks like a lot of urban turnout, based on me looking through the maps, is still being delayed a little in these big electoral vote states. In the next poll closing, Texas will be closed, and Amash absolutely needs that. 43 electoral votes is huge and if he doesn't win it he needs to sweep nearly all the remaining battlegrounds.

Maddow: The other very high profile news now is that Republicans have maintained the house, so if Gallego ends up being elected tonight, he will at least have a divided Congress. If Amash gets elected, he could have the potential to have a united government. We'll see on where the Senate goes tonight. Um, also, even though they're both 3 electoral votes, Maine and New Hampshire are incredibly close. I'll be stunned if those make or break the election but if they do, it'll be big news. Maine hasn't gone Republican since 1988 and New Hampshire since 2024.

 - - Other discussion continues - -

Hayes: Coming up after the break, we will meet with our friend Ari Melber again to see more exit polls that tell us how different groups in the electorate voted. Stay tuned, it is 8:40 PM on election night.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maddow: We are back on this very exciting election night. One of the biggest takeaways of every election is how demographics impact each election. For that reason, we're going to go over to Ari Melber to see the exit polls broken down by group. Over to you, Ari.

Melber Thanks Rachel. Let's first go by gender. There was a wide gender gap in this election. 55% of men voted for Amash while 54% of women voted for Gallego. That's about a 10 point gap between the candidates.

Gender

Men (47%): 55% Amash, 44% Gallego
Women (53%): 54% Gallego, 44% Amash

Among race now, we see Amash has a heavy majority among white voters, however the rest of America is much more mixed. Blacks are voting solidly democratic as you see here and as they have been for nearly a century. Hispanic Americans lean toward the Democratic party, but Amash's performance here looks like a improvement from past GOP performance with them. Finally, the majority of Asians are voting for Amash.

Race/Ethnicity

White (56%): 62% Amash, 37% Gallego
Hispanic (22%): 61% Gallego, 36% Amash
Black (14%): 88% Gallego, 12% Amash
Asian (7%): 54% Amash, 44% Gallego
Other (2%): 51% Gallego, 47% Amash

Going to age, this is nothing new. We've seen this pattern very often, with young voters voting the most Democratic, and the oldest voters voting the most Republican.

Age

18-29 (20%) 57% Gallego, 40% Amash
30-44 (26%): 50% Gallego, 48% Amash
45-64 (39%) 52% Amash, 47% Gallego
65+ (15%): 55% Amash, 44% Gallego

Now to income. Income heavily affects people's chances of voting. The wealthier you are the most likely you are to partake in the political process. The lower income brackets are heavily in favor of Gallego, but as you go up you see more Amash support along the way.

Income

Under $40,000 (20%): 62% Gallego, 36% Amash
$40,000-80,000 (33%): 51% Amash, 47% Gallego
$80,000-120,000 (22%): 55% Amash, 44% Gallego
$120,000+ (25%): 52% Amash, 45% Gallego

Another heavy influence on turnout, education. The majority of this country has a college education, and you can see the most educated people going slightly for Gallego, but less as you go to people who didn't go past a Bachelor's Degree, but back up for Gallego again for less educated people.

Education

Some College/No College (27%): 54% Gallego, 44% Amash
College Graduates (47%): 53% Amash, 46% Gallego
Postgraduates (26%): 50% Gallego, 47% Amash

Among religious groups, protestant christians are still a huge chunk of the electorate, and Amash won a handy majority of them. He also has a majority with Catholics. Gallego does better with people who say they are unaffiliated with a religion and minority religious groups.

Religion

Protestant Christian (46%): 56% Amash, 43% Gallego
Catholic (27%): 53% Amash, 46% Gallego
Unaffiliated (22%): 63% Gallego, 33% Amash
Other (5%): 66% Gallego, 32% Amash

Back to you, Rachel.

[Skill and Chance]

Will you be presenting the "historical" results of 2016-32?  From your comment about Virginia, it sounds like Walker, like Obama, has a closer reelection race in 2024 than in 2020?

[JonathanSwift]

Will you be presenting the "historical" results of 2016-32?  From your comment about Virginia, it sounds like Walker, like Obama, has a closer reelection race in 2024 than in 2020?

I'd be interested to see this as well.

[ElectionsGuy]

Will you be presenting the "historical" results of 2016-32?  From your comment about Virginia, it sounds like Walker, like Obama, has a closer reelection race in 2024 than in 2020?

I can do it when I'm completely done with it. The thing is, I wanted to plop this in the future with a little bit of background info (but not too much) so the viewer could pick up on things as the "night" goes on. Part of what makes this interesting is not knowing exactly what happened in the 20 years in between when it comes to trends.

[KingSweden]

Will you be presenting the "historical" results of 2016-32?  From your comment about Virginia, it sounds like Walker, like Obama, has a closer reelection race in 2024 than in 2020?

I can do it when I'm completely done with it. The thing is, I wanted to plop this in the future with a little bit of background info (but not too much) so the viewer could pick up on things as the "night" goes on. Part of what makes this interesting is not knowing exactly what happened in the 20 years in between when it comes to trends.

My two cents: I like the way you're doing it, let's us fill in the background ourselves. Agree with your reasoning 100%. Keep it up!

[ElectionsGuy]

Maddow: Thanks Ari! We have a call that we previously had as too close to call. In the state of Mississippi worth 5 electoral votes, we can project that Governor Amash is the winner of that state. It is still close and there is still a lot of vote left, but our team has said he will end up ahead in the end.

47% in

✔Amash: 51%
  Gallego: 48%

Gallego: 84
Amash: 75
Too Close: 108

 - - dialogue by commentators - -

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: Welcome back, it is 9:00 PM on the east coast on election night, and the polls are closing in all of these states scrolling on your screen

Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Michigan, Nebraska, North Dakota, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

We'll give you all the calls we can right now starting in the state of Colorado.


It is too close to call right now in the state of Colorado. A decent prize for whoever carries it.

1% in

Amash: 66%
Gallego: 32%

In New Mexico, we can say that it is too early to call, but Gallego is expected to win in the state of New Mexico.

2% in

Gallego: 55%
Amash: 42%

In the state of Kansas, we project that Justin Amash has won that state, a classic red state.

11% in

✔Amash: 59%
Gallego: 39%

In Nebraska, Justin Amash is also the winner, just 4 electoral votes.

2% in

✔Amash: 53%
Gallego: 45%

In North Dakota, the projected winner is Governor Amash.

0% in

✔Amash
Gallego

In South Dakota, same thing. Justin Amash is the projected winner.

0% in

✔Amash
Gallego

In Wyoming, the projected winner is Justin Amash. No surprise for all of these thus far.

1% in

✔Amash: 72%
Gallego: 25%

Going to Louisiana, it is projected for Governor Amash. 8 electoral votes.

1% in

✔Amash: 62%
Gallego: 37%

To its neighbor Texas, it is too early, but Amash has a lead in Texas. That's what NBC news is telling us right now.

8% in

Amash: 60%
Gallego: 38%

Going eastward now to Minnesota. It is too close to call. If Amash carries it he would be the first Republican to do so since Richard Nixon.

0% in

Gallego
Amash

In the state of Wisconsin, it is also too close to call. Amash targeted it with his Midwest campaign strategy and has firm backing from former president Scott Walker.

1% in

Amash: 57%
Gallego: 42%

In the state of Michigan, Amash's home state, it is also too close to call. It would be embarassing as a governor who won Michigan twice to lose his home state in the presidential race.

0% in

Gallego
Amash

Finally, in the state of New York, no surprise to learn that Ruben Gallego has carried this state, the only state he has carried thus far in this batch of states.

0% in

✔Gallego
  Amash

Here is our electoral map. 270 needed to win. As you can see both candidates are still far from that goal as many big electoral prize states are competitive tonight.

Gallego: 111
Amash: 102
Too Close: 151
Too early: 48

[ElectionsGuy]

(9:08 PM EST)

Hayes: We have two major projections right now that we just got notice of. In the state of Ohio which is usually a highly contested state in presidential elections due to its bellwether status, Justin Amash is now the projected winner in that state. No Republican has won without Ohio.

71% in

✔Amash: 52%
Gallego: 47%

And in the state of New Mexico which closed just a few moments ago and was said to be too early to call, Ruben Gallego has won this state neighboring his home state of Arizona.

4% in

✔Gallego: 54%
Amash: 43%

Amash: 118
Gallego: 116
Too Close: 135
Too early: 43

Will you be presenting the "historical" results of 2016-32?  From your comment about Virginia, it sounds like Walker, like Obama, has a closer reelection race in 2024 than in 2020?

I can do it when I'm completely done with it. The thing is, I wanted to plop this in the future with a little bit of background info (but not too much) so the viewer could pick up on things as the "night" goes on. Part of what makes this interesting is not knowing exactly what happened in the 20 years in between when it comes to trends.

My two cents: I like the way you're doing it, let's us fill in the background ourselves. Agree with your reasoning 100%. Keep it up!

Thank you!

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm sorry about the delay on this, I will get back to this promptly tomorrow.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: Very important calls there, but let’s go back to our discussion. So we’ve been discussing all night how neither of these candidates represent the establishment of the parties they’re running for. Gallego is far more populist and even socialistic in his stances than the Democratic Party, and Amash is far more libertarian than the Republican Party. How could that affect the states they win tonight?

Maddow Certainly some voters who traditionally vote a certain way can vote for the other party. We tend to see that tonight in the Rust Belt and in the Southeast. The degree that Amash wants to cut government spending can really alienate a lot of people, even Republican voters because they care about military spending. At the same time, the degree to which Gallego wants to expand social services of the government will alienate some otherwise Democratic voting people. Both candidates can add voters to their column for those reasons, but they will both inevitably alienate some portions of their own party.

Ball: It’s important to notice that Senator Gallego doesn’t call himself a ‘big government politician’, and Governor Amash doesn’t call himself a ‘politician who doesn’t car for working people’. The slogans that both candidates use are very smart. The way voters hear your message is one of the most important aspects of winning an election, so politicians have mastered this skill.

Hayes: Alright, coming up, we’ll go county by county on some of these swing states as we seek the winner of this presidential election. Stay with us on MSNBC.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: We're back on this very important night, it is election night. We are still waiting on calls in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. 11 states still, and remarkably the number of electoral votes in the 'too close to call' category outnumbers both candidates electoral scores so far. To break down some of the key states to know whats going on tonight, we go to Steve Kornacki again. Steve.

Kornacki: Thank you Chris. First we're going to look at Georgia



62% in

Amash: 52%
Gallego: 47%

Some counties still haven't reported yet, but as you can see the Atlanta area has come in pretty strong for Gallego. Right now Gallego has 47% of the vote. The problem for Gallego now is that much of the urban diverse vote is coming in right now or hasn't come in. It may not be enough to save him. Everything else out is from rural southern Georgia or the Republican northern part of the state.

Out of counties right now we have Gwinnett County. It is the face of new Georgia, it is suburban, diverse, and has over a million people. Right now, Gallego is leading in Gwinnett County 53-46. In counties like DeKalb and Fulton, Gallego is raking up margins by hundreds of thousands of votes. However if you look north to counties like Cherokee and Forsyth, both of which have populations near of over 300,000, They are voting around 4:1 for Amash. So Gallego's challenge is to get enough votes out of metro Atlanta to overcome the rural parts of the state, Amash's challenge is to get out enough votes in the more exurban and rural areas of the state to overcome Atlanta.

As we move to Florida now...



88% in

Gallego: 49%
Amash: 49%

This is so close right now. Only 30,000 votes separating the two candidates in a state that look to have over 10 million votes. Gallego strongholds are southeast Florida and the Orlando area. For instance Miami Dade is 63% Gallego, 37% Amash right now. Broward similarly going 69% Gallego, 30% Amash. But we can see why its close. In Southwest Florida, we got counties like Collier, where Amash is getting 65% of the vote to Gallego's 34%. In the panhandle, a Republican stronghold for over 50 years, Amash is consistently getting over 70% of the vote. So even though southeast Florida makes up over 35% of the state's population, the Republican strongholds of the state are not only going for him, they're going for him big.

Lastly, we'll go to Pennsylvania.



71% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 49%

It is important to note here that all of Philadelphia is in, so it looks like Amash can only go up from here. As you can see, Amash is narrowly leading in the state, but lets go through the counties. Suburban Philly counties like Chester and Buck are going for Amash. Philadelphia is going 80% for Gallego, however its population has stagnated over years, meaning there has been no growing Democratic vote here. Democrats have been trying hard to recover votes they have lost in recent elections, including the western part of the state. Meanwhile the Republicans rack up margins in a big amount of rural counties. From what it looks like Amash will win this.

Back to you, Chris.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: Thanks Steve, that's very interesting insight. Going into counties and regions of state can explain much of the battleground status.

- - dialogue between commentators - -

(9:21 PM EST)

Maddow: We have a call in a state NBC called too close to call. In the state of Pennsylvania with its 18 electoral votes, we can project that it will go to Governor Amash.

74% in

✔Amash: 50%
  Gallego: 49%

Amash: 136
Gallego: 116
Too Close: 117
Too early: 43

That is our electoral map as it stands. Coming up at the top of the hour, we will review all the major battleground states that are undecided.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maddow: Welcome back to MSNBC's election night coverage. I'm here with Chris Wallace, Ari Melber, Krystal Ball, and Steve Kornacki. It is now the bottom of the hour, and we had two projections over the commercial break in a states that were too early or close to call. New Hampshire is projected for Justin Amash. New Hampshire was Mr Amash’s best state in the primary so it’s a very well possibility that it helped him there.

77% in

✔ Amash: 51%
  Gallego: 47%

In Texas, which was too early to call before, it is now also being projected for Mr. Amash. A massive 43 electoral votes added to his column. It looks like the Latino turnout here didn’t help Gallego after all.

39% in

✔Amash: 55%
  Gallego: 43%

We are also going to go over states that were too close to call and also check in on states that are too close to call still.

In Colorado, it is too close to call. It closed just a half hour ago.

24% in

Amash: 54%
Gallego: 44%

In the swing state of Florida, almost all of the vote is in, it is just so close that we still can’t call it. Experts say it is likely now to go down to a recount. Those of you who are old enough know what happened in this state 36 years ago.

92% in

Gallego: 49.3%
Amash: 49.2%

For Georgia, it is too close to call.

68% in

Amash: 51%
Gallego: 48%

In Maine, it is too close to call. Maine hasn't been won by a Republican since 1988.

61% in

Gallego: 52%
Amash: 45%

In North Carolina, it is too close to call. Gallego is still leading. It is notable that this state was Gallego's last state visit before returning to his home in Phoenix.

79% in

Gallego: 51%
Amash: 48%

There are quite a few close states in the Midwest that closed a half hour ago. In Michigan, Justin Amash’s home state, it is too close to call.

22% in

Amash: 55%
Gallego: 44%

In Minnesota, it is too close to call. Despite Amash's supposed Midwest appeal, the question of eliminating farm subsidies might hurt him.

16% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 47%

In Wisconsin, it is also too close to call. Amash has visited Milwaukee several times during his tour.

25% in

Amash: 56%
Gallego: 42%

There are some complaints that we’ve called Illinois too early, but our NBC team is standing by the projection.

57% in

✔Gallego: 56%
  Amash: 42%

That wraps up the close states at this point. Amash has 182 electoral votes, Gallego has 116, and 114 are still out and open. 270 electoral votes are needed to win.

Amash: 182
Gallego: 116
Too Close: 114

Here's a look at the national popular vote thus far. Looks like a very close race.

31% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 48%

 - - discussion continues between commentators - -

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: We are back on this MSNBC election night. Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are too close to call totaling 114 electoral votes. Justin Amash has 182 electoral votes in his column including the critical states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and New Hampshire. Ruben Gallego has 116 electoral votes including the critical states of Illinois, Virginia, and New Mexico.

As of this status in the night, who looks like they have a better chance at winning the presidency, Gallego or Amash?

Melber: Amash is certainly leading Gallego in electoral votes right now, however I think many blue states that will end up in Gallego’s column are still out there. Specifically the west coast states will deliver many electoral votes, and those don’t close until 11:00 PM, so it may be misleading to say Amash has a lead at this point.

Ball: Amash’s strategy looks like consuming the Midwest besides Illinois, while also winning at least one of those three southeastern states that are still too close to call yet. Gallego’s strategy seems to increasingly be to sweep the western states and then come back and maybe win Florida or North Carolina. He may be able to pull off Georgia, but it looks a little optimistic….

Hayes: I’m sorry, we have a call in a very important state. In the state of North Carolina where it has been tight all evening but Gallego has also lead all evening, NBC projects that Senator Gallego is the winner of that state’s 17 elecoral votes. Certainly this boosts prospects for his campaign.

93% in

✔Gallego: 51%
  Amash: 48%

Amash: 182
Gallego: 133
Too Close: 97

Gallego’s electoral tally is now at 133 to Amash’s 182. Since we’re talking about all this and it seems very important calls are coming our way, let’s go to Steve Kornacki for what if scenarios with the electoral college tonight. Steve, take it away.

Kornacki: Thanks you Chris. With North Carolina now called for Gallego we have 7 states that are too close to call remaining, and 11 states that have yet to close. Let’s go through the scenarios right now.

First let’s go to the southeast. Florida is definitely looking like it’ll go to a recount. We could see a dreaded repeat of the 2000 election, we may not. All we know right now is that 95% of the vote is in and the margin separating to the two candidates is less than 0.2%. I think if Amash wins Florida its his election to lose. Up to Georgia, we have about 80% of the votes in. Amash is leading Gallego by about 4 points it looks like. There is still some Atlanta area vote to come in so that looks like it could go either way, but Amash is leading at the moment.

Now to the Midwest. Michigan, Amash’s home state, has about 35% of the vote reporting, Amash is leading however the Detroit area and other Democratic cities like Ann Arbor have yet to come in. It is notable however that Detroit has declined significantly in influence in the past 80 years. Over to Wisconsin, we see a similar story. About the same percentage reporting, Amash is leading, but some urban areas have yet to come in. Some see this as a good sign since the Milwaukee suburbs are heavily Republican, however Madison and Milwaukee together usually outvote those areas. Up in Minnesota, the growing Minneapolis urban core and suburbs have become more influential. There’s no reporting advantage as to whether Republican or Democratic areas are coming in first, but it remains very close.

Now to the remaining states, Colorado and Maine. Maine is still too close to call, although I will note Senator Gallego is leading by almost 6 points with 75% in, so it looks like its leaning towards Gallego. Not the end of the world if Amash loses it though, it’s only 3 electoral votes. Over to Colorado, about 40% of the vote has reported, and so far Amash is leading by close to double digits. However, Denver has not even started reporting, so we may need a bit more time to call Colorado.

With all that said now, if we set the electoral map in the what-if mode, and select all the likely Gallego states to be put in his column. California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii are all likely to be in his column as of tonight. And we put the likely Amash states in his column including Idaho, Utah, Alaska and Montana. Now we have an electoral map of 201 electoral votes for Amash and 214 electoral votes for Gallego. So now we have battlegrounds of Arizona, Gallego’s home state, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

Gallego: 214
Amash: 201
Battleground: 123

As we can see, Amash now has to get a majority of these electoral votes. That involves likely getting the tight Midwestern states on his side. Let’s assume he wins them all. Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin all go to him. That gets him to 238 electoral votes. Now he either has to sweep all the states out west that would get him to exactly 270, or win some states out west while also winning at least 1 of Georgia or Florida. Florida would completely cover those 32 electoral votes out west, so we can see how crucial Florida is now. If Gallego wins even one of those Midwestern states, Amash has to increasingly rely on sweeping the vast majority of the other states. On Gallego’s side, he has to rely on Nevada and Arizona, two states in his home vicinity. Those two states alone would get him 21 electoral votes to add up to 235. Getting Florida would get him to 268, and he would only need Maine to put him over the top. Not to mention the possibilities of winning some of those upper Midwest states.

Again, this is all speculation, we are just playing out the scenarios. With that, I’ll take it back to Chris.

Hayes: Thank you, Steve. I feel like I understand the electoral that much more just from watching him click on the various states. I also think that lets the viewer see the interactive idea of the electoral map.

- - Discussion between commentators continues - -  

[ElectionsGuy]

Maddow: It is 10:00 PM on the east coast and 6 states are closing, including the very important states of Arizona, Iowa, and Nevada.

Arizona, Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah

Arizona:

In the state of Arizona it is too close to call. Mr Gallego's home state and one of the most important states according to his campaign. The last time the Democrats carried this state was 1996 but its been close in the poll all year.

0% in

Gallego
Amash

Idaho:

In the state of Idaho we can project will little to no surprise than Mr Amash will be the projected winner.

1% in

✔Amash: 66%
  Gallego: 32%

Iowa:

In the state of Iowa, we have this interesting characterization. It is that it is too early to call, but Amash is said to have an advantage.

1% in

Gallego: 53%
Amash: 45%

Montana:

In the big state of Montana, it is projected to go to Justin Amash. 4 electoral votes.

2% in

✔Amash: 57%
  Gallego: 40%

Nevada:

In the state of Nevada, it is too early to call with a Gallego advantage according to NBC. 8 electoral votes.

0% in

Gallego
Amash

Utah:

Finally, in Utah, we can project Justin Amash as the winner. Mormons are a very conservative voting block and they are 50% of the voting population in Utah.

1% in

✔Amash: 69%
  Gallego: 29%

Those are our 10:00 PM closings. Here is what the electoral map looks like now with those closings.

Amash: 198
Gallego: 133
Too Close: 110
Too Early: 13

[ElectionsGuy]

(10:11 PM EST)

Maddow: We have an interruption. There has been a call for the presidential race in the state of Maine. Maine has been projected for Senator Gallego. Although only 3 electoral votes it gives the Gallego camp something to be positive about.

90% in

✔Gallego: 51%
  Amash: 46%

Amash: 198
Gallego: 136
Too Close: 107
Too Early: 13

[Skill and Chance]

Really interesting, and now that I have seen more, I appreciate the mystery that comes from not knowing all of the recent past.  It would be really cool to see county maps for VA/NC/GA, like you did for FL/PA!

[ElectionsGuy]

- - dialogue - -

(10:24 PM EST)

Maddow: We have yet anorther interruption in an important state call. In the state of Georgia with its 18 electoral votes, we project that Governor Amash has won the state. This comes to a great disappointment to Governor Carter who worked very hard to try and push turnout to the maximum there.

89% in

✔Amash: 50.6%
  Gallego: 48.5%

Amash: 216
Gallego: 136
Too Close: 89
Too Early: 13

When we come back, we will analyze all the current states still out yet, including Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada and Wisconsin. You don't want to miss that, stay with MSNBC.

[JonathanSwift]

Maddow: We have yet anorther interruption in an important state call. In the state of Georgia with its 18 electoral votes, we project that Governor Amash has won the state.

Yay!

[SATW]

I'm rooting for the ticket more likely to support my beliefs here. #Gallego2036 #BeatAmash

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: We are back at MSNBC election night 2036. It is too close to call in 5 states still with 5 yet to close, and 2 states that are 2 early to call. We have recently called Georgia for Governor Amash and Maine for Senator Gallego. We are going to go into in depth analysis on some of these states we have yet to call with our friend Steve Kornacki in just a moment but before that lets talk about the electoral situation. Georgia just got projected for Amash, does this mean Gallego is running out of options?

Melber: Yes, but is also means Amash is running out of options. We're getting closer and closer to 270, but were still far from it, so we need to wait a little longer to wait and see.

Ball: Much of the west coast is going to close soon, likely returning electoral votes to Gallego, but now that all of the southern battlegrounds are decided except for Florida, this election probably pends on the Midwest and the mountain west.

Maddow: On an unrelated note, it seems one of the trends we're going to see tonight is an increasing urban rural divide. We've identified this trend 50 years ago or more, but now I think we're really seeing it in action. Despite Gallego's competitiveness in this election, we're probably going to see swaths of land go red on county maps even more than the past.

 - - dialogue - -

Hayes: Now its time to turn to Steve Kornacki for our bottom of the hour electoral analysis.

Kornacki: Thank you. As it seems now, the Midwestern states are as tight as a tick. Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin are all too close to call and may be for a good chunk of the rest of the night. First, lets go to Iowa.



24% in

Gallego: 52%
Amash: 46%

There are some counties that have yet to report. The critical thing here, if Gallego wants to win this state, is to win the rural eastern areas of the state, along with the urban areas. If they don't do that, he's in trouble.



59% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 49%

In the case of Michigan, the declining urban cities can be what puts Gallego on top. The important thing here is too look at the suburbs of Detroit, mainly Oakland and Macomb County. Oakland is 51-47 Amash and Macomb is 52-46 Amash. If he can hold those margins, he can likely hold the state, though it will be close.

To Minnesota



65% in

Gallego: 50%
Amash: 48%

While this may look like a washout by Amash, the twin cities is still carrying the weight for Gallego. This staet is a classic case of urban rural split. Decades ago some of these rural areas would vote Democratic. As you can see here, they're mostly red today. The strategy for Gallego is to have very high turnout in the iron range in northern Minnesota, the most unionized area in the country, along with the twin cities. For Amash, the strategy is high turnout in the higher income suburbs.

Wisconsin now



68% in

Amash: 52%
Gallego: 47%

Although it looks like Amash is leading right now, Dane county is only reporting 33% of its precincts. Gallego's hope is to have enough votes out in the Madison area, Amash's hope is to have enough votes to overflow the Democratic votes in the heavily Republican Milwaukee suburbs. Either way, they're both chasing after these 9 electoral votes.

All of these states are too close to call and most likely will be for the next hour or so. Chris back to you.

Hayes: Thanks.

 - - dialogue continues - -

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm rooting for the ticket more likely to support my beliefs here. #Gallego2036 #BeatAmash

You favor expanding the social safety net, cutting military spending, getting money out of politics, and more labor rights such as paid vacation leave?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It appears you accidentally used the non-atlas colors in the actual maps in your last post for all but Iowa.

[ElectionsGuy]

It appears you accidentally used the non-atlas colors in the actual maps in your last post for all but Iowa.

No, actually that was on purpose. Iowa is correct. TV news is going to use the red-Republican blue-Democrat alignment.