Election Night 2036
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Question: How is this timeline (so far)?
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Very good, keep it up
 
#2
Decent
 
#3
So and so
 
#4
Bad, need to reform
 
#5
Terrible, please stop
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 46

Author Topic: Election Night 2036  (Read 19098 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #50 on: May 24, 2015, 04:46:40 PM »

It appears you accidentally used the non-atlas colors in the actual maps in your last post for all but Iowa.

No, actually that was on purpose. Iowa is correct. TV news is going to use the red-Republican blue-Democrat alignment.

Ok. In the partial results you used the atlas colors, so it was kind of confusing to see the reverse on the county map.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #51 on: May 24, 2015, 04:51:05 PM »

It appears you accidentally used the non-atlas colors in the actual maps in your last post for all but Iowa.

No, actually that was on purpose. Iowa is correct. TV news is going to use the red-Republican blue-Democrat alignment.

Ok. In the partial results you used the atlas colors, so it was kind of confusing to see the reverse on the county map.

Oh yeah, sorry. I figure its easy enough to figure out Republican and Democrat though.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #52 on: May 25, 2015, 06:30:42 PM »

Great work. Looks like Amash is likely to win based on what I've seen so far, and hopefully he does it without needing Florida so that we don't have a repeat of that debacle.

Out of curiosity, what is the methodology you used to come up with your EVs per state?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #53 on: May 25, 2015, 10:41:35 PM »

Great work. Looks like Amash is likely to win based on what I've seen so far, and hopefully he does it without needing Florida so that we don't have a repeat of that debacle.

Out of curiosity, what is the methodology you used to come up with your EVs per state?

I didn't really use a methodology. I just analyzed current (and by that I mean last 20-30 years) population shift trends and predicted them for all the states. I just had to make sure they all added up to 538 in the end.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #54 on: May 28, 2015, 09:11:54 PM »

HayesSad Lets go over one more time, for the sake of the viewers, the close states that we've called earlier in the evening. First, although it may not be a surprise to many, but South Carolina has narrowly gone to Amash.

94% in

Amash: 52%
Gallego: 47%

In Virginia, we projected a bit early on that Senator Gallego would hold the state.

98% in

Gallego: 54%
Amash: 44%

North Carolina, it took us a bit longer, but we also projected it for Gallego.

92% in

Gallego: 51%
Amash: 48%

In Mississippi, although many predicted it would be close, we called it much earlier than North Carolina.

87% in

Amash: 52%
Gallego: 48%

Georgia had taken a considerable amount of time but its now Amash territory.

92% in

Amash: 51%
Gallego: 48%

Now to the Rust Belt. Ohio we have Amash winning the 16 electoral votes.

90% in

Amash: 53%
Gallego: 46%

East to Pennsylvania, a similar margin for Amash

93% in

Amash: 52%
Gallego: 47%

Smaller states, New Hampshire had been called for Amash in a close race.

89% in

Amash: 51%
Gallego: 47%

Maine had been called for Gallego recently.

95% in

Gallego: 51%
Amash: 46%

Illinois was expected to be a prime swing state, but we called it rather early.

85% in

Gallego: 53%
Amash: 46%

Finally, the big state of Texas and its 43 electoral votes have been given to Amash

60% in

Amash: 53%
Gallego: 45%

Every other state that has been called has largely expected to go that way. For those states gone through here, that adds up 113 electoral votes for Amash and 53 electoral votes for Gallego. Here is a look at the popular vote.

63% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 49%
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #55 on: May 28, 2015, 09:22:54 PM »

Hmmm... if Amash is only up 50/49 pre-California against a Hispanic opponent,  It looks like Gallego will take the popular vote.  Of course, he is narrowly losing Texas, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Georgia, so the electoral college is much closer.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #56 on: May 28, 2015, 09:34:57 PM »

(10:56 PM EST)

Maddow: Welcome back to MSNBC, we have been not only following the very close and exciting presidential race tonight, we have also been following the Senate races. We aren't going to give you any specific Senate race at this time, but we will update you about the status of the Senate. The Democrats need 4 seats to pickup the senate if Gallego is elected president, but 5 if Amash is elected since the Vice President gets the deciding vote. Democrats so far have a net gain of two seats. This Senate class last got elected in 2030, a good Republican year, and most prognosticators expect the Democrats to pickup a few seats.



Red - Democratic hold
Dark Red - Democratic gain
Blue - Republican hold
Dark Blue - Republican gain
Lime Green - Too close or too early
Golden - Not yet closed

The Democrats have picked up seats in Florida, Maine, and New Mexico while Republicans have picked up a seat in Virginia. That's a net gain of 2. We do not yet know the status of the Senate. The Democrats have to pick up 2 to 3 of the remaining 4 seats that are too close. Arizona is held by Gallego himself and California, Hawaii, and Washington Senate seats are all held by Democrats.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #57 on: June 08, 2015, 03:30:23 PM »

Maddow: It is 11:00 PM on the east coast and 4 states have closed on the Pacific coast. The 4 states include California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington

California:

We can project the massive state of California will go to Senator Gallego. This is not a surprise. The state should be a balance to middle America where Gallego is not performing too hot tonight.

1% in

Gallego: 58%
Amash: 38%

Hawaii:

We can also project Hawaii for Mr Gallego. It continues on its long streak of Democratic voting.

0% in

Gallego
Amash

Oregon:

In Oregon, Gallego is the winner, without much difficulty. He campaigned heavily in the Pacific Northwest.

0% in

Gallego
Amash

Washington:

Washington, same story, Gallego is the winner and its 13 electoral votes go to him.

0% in

Gallego
  Amash

With that now said, that adds quite a bit to Gallego's electoral vote total.



Amash: 216
Gallego: 217
Too Close: 89
Too Early: 13

The election now pends on the upper Midwest, the southwest, and Florida.

 - - dialogue between commentators - -
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #58 on: June 08, 2015, 03:41:33 PM »

(11:06 PM EST)

HayesSad We have to interupt for breaking news we just got from the Florida Secretary of State's office. The election will be on hold for a recount until at least tomorrow morning. These are the results so far.

96% in

Gallego: 49.4%
Amash: 49.2%

Only 0.2% and about 25,000 votes separating the two candidates. So we will not have an official call on that until tomorrow. That's big news, because 33 electoral votes in a presidential election is a lot, enough to completely tip the balance for a victory. Unless either candidate wins a vast majority of the states left, this election may not be decided until tomorrow. All eyes are on Florida now.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #59 on: June 08, 2015, 03:49:09 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2015, 07:38:59 PM by ElectionsGuy »

(11:10 EST)

Hayes: We have two calls in two states that we previously could not characterize. In Iowa, Justin Amash has won the state and its 5 electoral votes. However, in Nevada, Ruben Gallego has won the state and its 8 electoral votes. There is still no call in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. All of them are very close yet.

Iowa:

44% in

Amash: 52%
Gallego: 46%

Nevada:

29% in

Gallego: 51%
Amash: 45%





Gallego: 225
Amash: 221
Too Close: 56
Too Close, unable to call: 33

Here is a look at the national popular vote at this time

66% in

Amash: 50.6%
Gallego: 48.1%

Already experts are predicting that more than 165 million votes will be cast in the 2036 presidential election.

 - - dialogue continues - -
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Free Bird
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« Reply #60 on: June 08, 2015, 09:11:32 PM »

Don't tell me... no. Not this again
- Every Floridian on this forum
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #61 on: June 09, 2015, 12:18:31 PM »

(11:26 PM EST)

Maddow
: We have a projection in a state that was previously too close to call. In Colorado it is confirmed now that even with the vast majority of Denver's votes in that Justin Amash was carried the state of Colorado. Despite the fact that Gallego is leading very slightly, there are not enough votes left from the rest of the state for him to win.

79% in

  Gallego: 49%
Amash: 49%

Our team says they will be able to make projections very soon for the states of Wisconsin and Michigan.




Amash: 232
Gallego: 225
Too Close: 45
Too Close, unable to call: 33
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #62 on: June 09, 2015, 01:05:16 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2015, 01:18:32 PM by Skill and Chance »

Calling it now: of what remains, Gallego wins only Arizona and there are Florida legal theatrics again.  Which leads to a very important question: Who appointed the current SCOTUS?  Are any of the current Justices still around?  Looks like there would be a lot more moderates given that opposite party Senate control has been the norm.  Scalia probably steps down in 2021.  Ginsburg and Breyer hopefully step down under Clinton and get replaced by moderate left women.  Kennedy obviously wants to retire under divided government, but I think he would prefer R president/D senate to D president/R senate?  Thomas and Alito will be over 85 and presumably didn't retire back in 2021-22.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #63 on: June 10, 2015, 11:15:49 AM »

Kornacki: This presidential election is becoming very hard to predict. With 5 states too close to call, Florida out, and a few of the minor swing states such as Iowa and Nevada called, its getting closer and closer but we'll likely have to wait until tomorrow or late tonight for a winner.

Ball: What do you guys think of Amash winning Colorado? Is that bad news for Gallego? I know he was targeting it

Melber: Possibly, but there's really no conceivable way for Amash to win the election without Colorado, so I don't think its a big disadvantage, and even all those upper Midwest states go the way of Colorado, all Gallego needs to win is Florida, where he's leading slightly, and Arizona, his home state.

Maddow: The fascinating thing still is that both candidates home states are too close. Amash comes from a traditionally Democratic state, Gallego comes from a traditionally Republican state, yet they both managed to win in their states as the opposite parties for Governor and Senate. A presidential election is a bit different though. You're not as close to the people as say a Governor would be.

 - - more discussion - -

Hayes: When we come back, there will be Senate analysis and a breakdown of states that have yet to be called. Stay with MSNBC.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #64 on: June 10, 2015, 11:40:25 AM »

I love this timeline. Keep it up!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #65 on: June 11, 2015, 08:05:25 PM »

Hayes: Welcome back to MSNBC. As you may know by now it has been a nailbreaking night for the presidential race. There are 5 states still too close to call and one, Alaska, not yet closed. But while we're waiting for those calls, lets go to some Senate analysis by Ari Melber. Ari...

Melber: Thanks. Since the last update of the Senate, the west coast has closed and all those Senate seats have gone to the Democrats. Republicans have barely held on in Pennsylvania, have picked up Gallego's Arizona seat, but Democrats have picked up Michigan. That means that now Democrats have to pick up both of Wisconsin and Nevada, which are Republican held and have Republican incumbents, in order to get control of the Senate. And they also need to win the presidency, otherwise the Vice President (George P Bush) would take the tie braking vote.



Red - Democratic hold
Dark Red - Democratic gain
Blue - Republican hold
Dark Blue - Republican gain
Lime Green - Too close or too early

At this moment, Republicans have 50 seats in the Senate, while Democrats have 48. Back to you Chris.

Hayes: Wow, that is certainly some suspenseful stuff right there. We might not be able to call the Senate or the presidency tonight.

Maddow: The Senate situation is certainly not what the Democrats were hoping for tonight. Now they have to sweep the table with Wisconsin, Nevada, and the presidency. All Amash has to do is win the presidency and he can get a completely Republican Congress to enact whatever they want, whether that's cutting off funds to social security, medicare or a national right to work law.

Kornacki: The Senate and Presidency relationship have been very interesting to watch tonight. We got Michigan and Minnesota going Democratic which could spell bad things for Amash in those states, and then there's Arizona, which actually fell Republican quite quickly actually. Gallego barely pulled out that 2030 victory in his home state, but tonight in a supposedly more favorable setting, it went Republican. Certainly he knows how to get elected in his state, and that should get him the state in the presidential race, but its still super close.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #66 on: June 11, 2015, 08:17:25 PM »

Hayes: Lets diverge from the Senate from a moment to talk about the states still out. Lets take a look at Arizona in the presidential race. In Maricopa County at the moment, with 70% in, Amash is leading by a bare 1%. This is by far the most populous and fastest growing county in Arizona with nearly 5 million people. And lets take a look at the state's results thus far.

68% in

Gallego: 48.5%
Amash: 48.2%

Yeah, that's a close one. We probably won't be able to call that for a while. Lets show our viewers what's also going on in other states. Wisconsin for example. Can we pull that up?

84% in

Amash: 50.6%
Gallego: 48.8%

Lets also get Michigan up...

90% in

Amash: 49.9%
Gallego: 49.2%

And Minnesota now...

81% in

Amash: 51.4%
Gallego: 47.2%

Melber: There you have it folks, a stalled presidential election!

Hayes: After the break, polls will close in the critical state of Alaska (*laughs*) and we will update you on any information that will futher the presidential and senatorial elections. Stay tuned.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #67 on: June 11, 2015, 08:30:50 PM »

Maddow: It is Midnight on the east coast and polls have closed in the final closing, Alaska. Right now we can project that Governor Justin Amash will win the state of Alaska and its 3 electoral votes. Not surprising considering Alaska has been voting Republican for nearly 70 years now.

Alaska

11% in

Amash: 60%
Gallego: 35%



Amash: 235
Gallego: 225
Too Close: 45
Too Close, unable to call: 33

We also have some critical calls in the two Senate races that were left out. NBC has projected that both seats, in Nevada and Wisconsin, have gone to the Democratic candidates. Two Republican incumbents have been defeated, including majority leader Sean Duffy (R-WI). This means that the Senate control is now dependent on the presidential race. If Ruben Gallego wins, the Senate is Democratic. If Justin Amash wins, the Senate is Republican.



Red - Democratic hold
Dark Red - Democratic gain
Blue - Republican hold
Dark Blue - Republican gain
Lime Green - Too close or too early

That is the finished Senate map. It is 50/50, with 6 Democratic gains, 2 Republicans gains, and net gain of 4 for Democrats.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #68 on: June 11, 2015, 08:55:53 PM »
« Edited: June 13, 2015, 12:07:04 AM by ElectionsGuy »

(12:13 AM EST)

Maddow
: We have an interruption on a very important call. In Minnesota we can project with enough precincts in that Governor Amash has won its 9 electoral votes.

85% in

Amash: 51%
Gallego: 47%



Amash: 244
Gallego: 225
Too Close: 36
Too Close, unable to call: 33

Here's a look at the popular vote right now:


74% in

Amash: 49.9%
Gallego: 48.5%

As you can see, the popular vote gap is closing up as more of the west coast's precincts come in. There is also a possibility, in all this madness tonight, of the popular vote and the electoral college going against each other. This and the closeness of Florida may bring deja vu to our older watchers tonight of the 2000 election.

 - - dialogue between commentators - -
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #69 on: June 11, 2015, 09:01:22 PM »
« Edited: June 13, 2015, 12:06:57 AM by ElectionsGuy »

(12:17 AM EST)

Maddow: And we have another call in a Midwestern state. In the state of Wisconsin and its 9 electoral votes, it will be going to Governor Amash.

89% in

Amash: 50.2%
Gallego: 49.1%



Amash: 253
Gallego: 225
Too Close: 27
Too Close, unable to call: 33

We are getting reports that folks are cheering very loudly at Amash headquarters in Grand Rapids for these successive state wins. Despite that, the Gallego team is very confident the can squeak out either one of Michigan or Arizona, and Florida to get the 270 electoral votes they need.

On a seperate note, our team of analysits said in the past hour that they were quickly ready to project Michigan, but they have tooken it back, suggesting it is closer than expected.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #70 on: June 12, 2015, 11:53:26 PM »
« Edited: June 13, 2015, 12:06:50 AM by ElectionsGuy »

(12:25 AM EST)

Maddow: Lets go to Steve Kornacki on these states that are still too close to call and break them down. Steve...

Kornacki: Ah yes, good old Michigan. Right now Michigan is sitting at about 93% of precincts reporting, and a 0.6% difference between the two candidates. Let's show the county map up here:



Dark Red: Amash >60%
Red: Amash <60%
Dark Blue: Gallego >60%
Blue: Gallego <60%

93% in

Amash: 49.9%
Gallego: 49.3%

So we got Detroit, Flint, Saginaw, Lansing areas going strong for Gallego. These are and were classic uniion voting blocs traditionally strong for Democrats. Problem is, the rural parts of the state are not going. We got several counties, including Kent County, where Amash's home district was when he served in the house, going over 60% for him. Not only that, the key suburbs of Oakland and Macomb counties, usually bellwethers, Amash has a 1-2% lead in each. Amash's team has told us they're confident about his home state, but its ironic that his home state and Gallego's home state are 2 out of the three states left that we can't call tonight.



In Arizona, this is amazing, Maricopa County is coming in very slightly for Gallego. This would be the first time this county went Democratic in nearly a century. In the state, there is more or less a 1-2% lead for Gallego with about 4/5ths of the vote in.

79% in

Gallego: 50.2%
Amash: 48.6%

Gallego and his team pushed the turnout hard in the most urban areas of Phoenix and Tucson, and they have told us that it is paying off in the past few minutes, where there has been a surge in Democratic votes. Maricopa County is nearly tied at 49% to 49%. It is important to remember that he only represented the most Democratic parts of the County in the House over a decade ago. In some other areas, he is doing better, such as Pima County where he is getting 56%. However, not so hot in other areas, like Yavapai County, where is getting a dismal 31%. It's really a mixed bag.

At the electoral vote standpoint we are at right now, Amash can win with both Arizona and Michigan, but Gallego absolutely has to win Florida and one other state. Its been over 100 years since a president got elected without their home state, so the fact that we're sitting here talking about this tonight is really something. Back to you, Rachel.

Maddow: Thank you for the informative insight. We will call both of these if or when we can.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #71 on: June 13, 2015, 12:06:39 AM »

(12:32 AM EST)

Hayes: We have breaking news, in Senator Gallego's home state of Arizona, the NBC has called it for Mr Gallego himself. This is a very important call now, as the election now completely depends on Florida's outcome tomorrow, that is if we get one tomorrow.

84% in

Gallego: 50.3%
Amash: 48.5%



Amash: 253
Gallego: 238
Too Close: 14
Too Close, unable to call: 33

Here's a look at the popular vote at this time:

83% in

Amash: 49.5%
Gallego: 48.9%

As we can see that gap is starting to close as the strongly Democratic west coast comes in more and more.

 - - Fast forward to 1:00 AM EST - -

Our NBC team is done for tonight. Our nighttime fill-ins will be able to cover any result that has not come to us yet, most importantly Michigan and its 14 electoral votes. Tune in tomorrow morning to see the possible result of the Florida and the presidential race and the Senate. It has been a crazy election night and we hope that you stay tuned tomorrow.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #72 on: June 13, 2015, 12:17:35 AM »

(2:02 AM EST)

Farrow
: It is 2:00 AM on the east coast and we can finally now call Michigan for the Governor of its state, Justin Amash. Its incredibly tight, but our experts say there's too much vote in for the result to change.

99.3% in

Amash: 49.7%
Gallego: 49.5%



Amash: 267
Gallego: 238
Too Close, unable to call: 33

Here is also a more mature look at the popular vote

92% in

Gallego: 49.4%
Amash: 49.0%

Now we'll have to wait until tomorrow morning to call Florida. As you can see, Gallego is leading in the popular vote, but what really matters is the electoral college. Amash is just 3 away from the 270 he needs, however if Gallego wins Florida he can get up to 271 electoral votes. If the popular vote numbers stay as they are now, and Amash wins Florida, he would win the election without the most votes. Senator Gallego campaigned against the electoral college, saying it was undemocratic. It could perhaps prove his point if that were to happen. Nevertheless, the presidential election as it stands now is stalled.
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« Reply #73 on: June 13, 2015, 11:42:36 AM »

I want Gallego to win, but I'm almost entirely sure that Amash will win this TL...

Anyway, great job! And I can't wait to see the final results. Cheesy
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #74 on: June 14, 2015, 10:26:31 PM »
« Edited: June 14, 2015, 10:58:35 PM by ElectionsGuy »

(7:00 AM EST)

Breaking News: Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) Wins Presidency!

Todd: Good morning, I'm Chuck Todd and today is November 5th, 2036. I'm reporting to you that the Florida Secretary of State has concluded the recount underway early this morning, and it is now found that Ruben Gallego has carried the state and its 33 electoral votes, putting his electoral tally at 271 and making him President-elect of the United States and Seth Moulton Vice President-elect of the United States.

100% in

Gallego: 49.41%
Amash: 49.26%



Gallego: 271
  Amash: 267

Here is the popular vote as it stands now with almost all the precincts across the country in:

99% in

Gallego: 49.6%
Amash: 48.9%

This presidential wins also means that the Senate will be held in Democratic hands.

Democrats: 50
  Republicans: 50

We also have a full result for you after last night in the House of Representatives. 4 races are still outstanding, but as of right now, this is the balance of power:

Republicans: 231
  Democrats: 198
  Independents: 2
  Undecided: 4

218 are needed to hold a majority. As you can see, Republicans are 13 above that requirement.

If you are waking up right now for the first time, you have heard the presidential result for the first time. None of the news networks could project Florida and therefore could not project the result of the presidential election. Both of the candidates went to sleep after 2:00 AM when Michigan was called for Amash. Arizona was called for Gallego an hour and a half earlier. We should be hearing from President-elect Gallego shortly.

Earlier this morning, however, there has been controversy over the call in Arizona. The call was made prior to the Phoenix Suburb of Gilbert even reporting any of its precincts. The suburb happens to be heavily Republican and mostly non-Hispanic white, and wealthy. The margin shrunk down to less than 1% in the margin of victory for Gallego. However, election team experts have sealed that up, in fact confirming Gallego has won Arizona.

99% in

Gallego: 49.6%
  Amash: 49.2%
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