Election Night 2036

[ElectionsGuy]

Background Information:

Presidencies since 2016:

Hillary Clinton: 2017-2021 (D-NY)
Scott Walker: 2021-2029 (R-WI)
Patrick Murphy: 2029-2037 (D-FL)

Senate since 2016:

2017-2023: Republican
2023-2031: Democratic
2031-2033: Republican
2033-2035: Democratic
2035-2037: Republican

House since 2016:

2017-2027: Republican
2027-2031: Democratic
2031-2037: Republican

Racial Makeup of America:

49% Non-Hispanic White
14% Non-Hispanic Black
9% Asian
2% Native American
2% Other

26% Hispanic of any race

Religious Makeup of America:

69% Christian
-   44% Protestant
-   25% Catholic
25% Unaffiliated
2% Jewish
4% Other

Income and Education in America:

Average Household Income: $61,000

$0-40,000: 30%
$40,000 - $90,000: 45%
$90,000 and higher: 25%

High School or less: 12%
Some College: 22%
College Graduate: 45%
Postgraduates: 21%

Election Night!

Chris Hayes Good evening America on this election night 2036. I’m Chris Hayes, you’re watching MSNBC on November 4th, 2036. I’m here with my colleagues Rachel Maddow, Krystal Ball, Steve Kornacki, and Ari Melber. It has been a very long campaign, and a very interesting one at that. Historians are calling this one of the most interesting presidential elections in a century. With that, tonight is expected to have the highest turnout we’ve seen in a long time. Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona is facing off against the libertarian firebrand Governor Justin Amash of Michigan. President Murphy has been campaigning for Senator Gallego actively in the battleground states throughout the last half of the year. Gallego would be the first Hispanic president of the United States, Amash would be the first Arab-American president of the United States. Both would make history.

Gallego is running on a number of progressive reforms, such as expansion of entitlements and more funding to social security, which critics are calling a bankrupt scheme that is failing. Interestingly, he is also running on abolishing the Electoral College, which is the first time a candidate has brought up that issue. Of course, the Electoral College is still active for this election. He is also running on getting money out of politics once and for all, calling for public funding of elections. Governor Amash, on the other hand, is running on reducing the size of government, abolishing several departments and agencies, cutting spending, but also reducing intervention overseas.

Ruben Gallego won the Democratic primaries fairly easily, only having a few Democratic challengers. Among them, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, Jared Polis of Ohio, and Jason Carter of Georgia. He got just over 50% of the primary vote while the others got 10-20%.

Justin Amash, on the other hand, faced a tough run from the establishment Republicans, however in a Republican primary that is more war-weary from the intervention in Saudi Arabia under Murphy’s watch, Amash was the go to guy. He ended up barely making it out, others that ran against him include Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Mia Love of Utah, and Matt Bevin of Kentucky. Cotton was especially critical of Amash’s foreign policy, calling him ‘the weakest candidate Republicans have ever put up’. Nationally he got about 32% of the vote, with the others scattered just below that mark.

 - - - Dialogue between commentators - - -

Maddow: Coming up, the first polls close in Georgia, Kentucky, Indiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. Don’t miss them. This is MSNBC.

[ElectionsGuy]

Pretty interesting so far. Who are the Vice Presidential candidates?

I should've mentioned that. Seth Moulton for the Democrats and George P Bush for the Republicans.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maddow: Welcome back to MSNBC on election night 2036. It is 7:00 Eastern Standard Time and the polls have closed in 6 states. We have projections and characterizations coming to you right now.

Virginia

With only 2% in it is too early to call in the state of Virginia, but so far the numbers and predictions look good for Gallego. The state has not gone Republican since 2020. 15 electoral votes at stake here.

2% in

Amash: 59%
Gallego: 38%

Kentucky

The solidly Republican state of Kentucky is in the bag for Amash, as of NBC projections. 7 electoral votes for Governor Amash.

22% in

✔Amash: 62%
  Gallego: 35%

North Carolina

It is too close to call in the state of North Carolina, President Murphy did win this state both times but this state has always been very competitive. 17 electoral votes at risk, the Republicans are counting on this.  

4% in

53% Gallego
45% Amash

Georgia

In the state of Georgia, it is also too close to call with its 18 electoral votes. Georgia has been trending Democratic over the last 30 years and it is notable that the Republican grip is weakening, although both of the candidates have campaigned hard here.

1% in

Amash: 65%
Gallego: 34%

South Carolina

2% in

In South Carolina, Amash is a likely victor here but its still too early to call. Some democratic strategests say its in play but the majority of estimates say Amash has the better chance. A good 10 electoral vote prize here.

Gallego: 59%
Amash: 40%

Indiana

Finally, in Indiana, Amash is the projected winner for this state which has been pretty Republican for most of its history. That is 10 electoral votes for Mr. Amash

2% in

✔Amash: 59%
  Gallego: 37%

Amash: 17
Gallego: 0
Not Decided: 60

That wraps up our 7 PM Eastern Time Projections. We will get back to some of those states that are too close and too early later once we have more information.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: Those were some interesting feedback so far, even if little is known. The key battlegrounds this cycle seem to be Georgia, Florida, Arizona, Illinois, New Hampshire, and countless others. There are some that say even Texas is a battleground. But one of the more important things coming out of the election tonight will be how groups voted. NBC has early exit poll data that could spell hints to tonight’s results. For that we go to our friend Ari Melber.

Melber: Thank you, Chris. The first information we have is the President’s approval ratings. As of tonight, 42% approve while 56% disapprove and 2% weren’t sure. That doesn’t spell well for Gallego, but the last poll heading into tonight had him ahead by just one point though, so he’s not out of the game by any means.

Approve – 83% Gallego, 16% Amash
Dissaprove – 75% Amash, 23% Gallego
Not sure – 56% Gallego, 43% Amash

When asked about the state of the economy, only 13% said excellent, to 29% that said good, 35% that said bad, and 23% that said terrible.

Excellent – 88% Gallego, 11% Amash
Good – 67% Gallego, 31% Amash
Bad – 52% Amash, 46% Gallego
Terrible – 93% Amash, 6% Gallego

When asked about foreign intervention, 69% of Americans said they wanted less military intervention abroad compared to just 29% who wanted more. This is an especially interesting issue as both candidates said they would pull back troops from the Middle East.

More intervention – 62% Amash, 37% Gallego
Less Intervention – 55% Gallego, 43% Amash
Not sure – 70% Amash, 29% Gallego

When it comes to government, more people are interested in keeping the welfare state. Only 32% of Americans favor cutting social programs while 68% favor keeping them.

Cut social programs – 94% Amash, 4% Gallego
Keep social programs – 71% Gallego, 28% Amash

However, when asked whether they want a more active government in personal and economic spheres, 56% said they want less government involvement while 43% said they wanted more.

More active government – 87% Gallego, 11% Amash
Less active government – 79% Amash, 20% Gallego

We’ll be back with more data, specifically demographics, at a later period. Back to you Chris.

[ElectionsGuy]

Puerto Rico?

Hasn't become a state and there's no way I can "create" it on the EV map.

[ElectionsGuy]

Democratic Primary:



Ruben Gallego - Red: 2,470 Delegates
Jason Carter - Blue: 546 Delegates
Martin Heinrich - Orange: 123 Delegates
Jared Polis - Purple: 119 Delegates
Other/Unallocated: 401 Delegates

National Primary Vote

Gallego - 51.4%
Carter - 19.7%
Heinrich - 13.3%
Polis - 12.4%
Others - 3.2%

Republican Primary:



Justin Amash - Yellow: 886 Delegates
Tom Cotton - Orange: 842 Delegates
Mia Love - Purple: 397 Delegates
Matt Bevin - Red: 164 Delegates
Others/Unallocated: 344 Delegates

National Primary Vote

Amash - 31.8%
Cotton - 29.9%
Love - 20.1%
Bevin - 7.7%
Others - 10.5%

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: Alright, thank you Ari. So with all that said, the country based on those statistics is in a an anti-incumbent mood, but yet the race is neck and neck. Why is that?

Maddow: I think its because you have this guy on the Republican side that many conservatives have a hard time getting under. Granted, Governor Amash did pick Texas Governor [George P.] Bush to balance out his libertarianism with more mainstream conservative ideas, but it was only appeasement because he absolutely needed voters for the ticket. When Tom Cotton didn't even say if he would vote for him or not, there's an issue with some in the base.  You also have a very progressive Democratic nominee for the first time in decades, and voters in this country like progressive ideas. When you go to the precise issues Americans support the progressive agenda, despite all the claims its not true. That's why in the exit polls we just showed Americans want to keep social security despite wanting to lessen the size of government, a much vaguer question.

Ball: That's why this election is so important. I think the nomination of Amash really is a turning point in Republican Party, just as Goldwater was 70 years ago. It shows that the Republican voters are willing to buck the establishment every once in a while. And, in the Democratic side, a decently progressive candidate, probably one of the most since Barack Obama. You'd think this would cause for massive polarization and voters feeling left out, but the turnout is the highest in thirty years. It's amazing.

(other non-important dialogue by commentators continues)

[ElectionsGuy]

Interesting. What happened to West Virginia? Did a lot of people move out?

The state's economy gets worse and it passes Mississippi for poorest state in America. Also, yes, population declines to about 1.5 Million. Of course, just playing around, I don't expect that to happen for real, but West Virginia's decline looks pretty bad as of now.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maddow: Its 7:30 PM on the east coast, and polls closed in two states, West Virginia and Ohio. One very important, one not so much.

West Virgina

In the state of West Virginia we can project that Justin Amash Is the winner of its 3 electoral votes. The state’s officers are handily behind Amash who has vowed to fight against intrusive energy and environmental regulation.

3% in

✔ Amash: 66%
   Gallego: 31%

Ohio:

In the state of Ohio, on the other hand, it is too close to call, but the NBC election team is saying Amash has an advantage. Going into the election Amash is expected to run better in the Midwest than other Republicans have in the past.

1%

Gallego: 60%
Amash: 39%

Let’s check on the other poll closings from 7:00 to update you on that. Ah, yes, Virginia is still too early to call but again Gallego is said to have an advantage

18% in

Amash: 55%
Gallego: 43%

Okay, we have a projection, in the state of South Carolina we can project Justin Amash as the winner of its 10 electoral votes.

11% in

✔Amash: 52%
  Gallego: 47%

Into its northern neighbor, North Carolina, it is still too close to call as expected. It is expected to run long into the night. A big 17 electoral prize there.

9% in

Gallego: 54%
Amash: 44%

Lastly, in Georgia it is also too close to call. With the massive growth of the Atlanta in the last decade, this has become a toss-up state. Governor Carter has been influential in this race. Again, a big electoral prize here of 18 electoral votes.

4% in

Amash: 61%
Gallego: 38%

Amash: 30
Gallego: 0
Too close: 51
Too early: 15

National Popular Vote:

2% in

Amash: 53%
Gallego: 45%

That’s what we have for the 7:30 Eastern projections by NBC. Too much of this so far is just that we don't have enough information to project the states. Certainly in an hour or two we'll have a better look at the national vote.

So far, we have 4 states for Amash, a total of 30 electoral votes, but still none for Gallego.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes Not a surprise that West Virginia went the way it did, but Ohio will be very critical to the race. Amash absolutely needs Ohio if he wants to win, if he doesn't win it would be a blow to him. Also, is it a surprise South Carolina went to Amash as early as it did?

Kornacki: No, Democrats have been talking about it but it was more wishful thinking than anything else. There are so many battlegrounds tonight. Certainly I think the dynamic nature of the candidates is somewhat realigning some of the state’s results tonight. We see states like Illinois, Arizona, Texas, and even Mississippi, competitive. States that just 10 years ago seemed unthinkable to be competitive. A lot of this also has to do with population growth and demographic change and so forth, but I think tonight has the potential to be a realigning election.

Hayes: Yeah, coming up at 8:00 here were going to have poll closings in many important states including Florida, Pennsylvania, and Illinois. These races will start defining the race. The thing is, there’s a lot of states with many electoral votes, so it’s about winning those large states more than it is just winning battlegrounds in general.

Maddow: Hey Steve, you said you had a map of all the competitive states in the presidential race, correct? Can... can we put up that map to show the viewers what's going on tonight?

Kornacki: Certainly

Maddow: Wow, that's a huge amount of states.

Kornacki: Yeah, I considered two things when making this map. Polls and history. Any states with a margin under 6% for either candidate are here, and also any state that may not fit that criteria, but has been consistently competitive in the past 3 presidential elections. As you can see, a lot of Midwest states but also more of focus on the sunbelt.

 - - Other dialogue continues - -

Hayes: In just a few minutes, we will have poll closings in 16 states plus the District of Columbia, so don’t miss that. Stay with us.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maddow It is 8:00 PM on the east coast and there are a massive 17 states plus the District of Columbia scrolling on your screen. We will start with the most important ones of the batch.

Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Vermont.

Florida

In Florida it is too close to call with 33 electoral votes. This is a big state where the Hispanic vote could make the difference. As you can see, already a third of the vote is in because most of the state actually closed at 7:00.

34% in

Gallego: 52%
Amash: 47%

Illinois

In Illinois, it is also too close to call, however NBC is saying that Gallego has a lead based off the early exit polls. Republicans say that the Republican trend in the rural areas of the state benefit them, however Democrats say that Cook County and the Chicago suburbs will deliver the state for them. 18 electoral votes.

5% in

Gallego: 75%
Amash: 23%

Mississippi

In Mississippi the characterization by NBC is that it is too close to call. Only 5 electoral votes but at this point it could make or break the election. It is the only state in America where over 40% of its electorate is black.

2% in

Amash: 51%
Gallego: 49%

New Hampshire

In New Hampshire, it is also too close to call. The smallest electoral prize of any battleground but it is as close as a hair.

10% in

Gallego: 49%
Amash: 49%

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, its 18 electoral votes are highly contentious and up for grabs by both campaigns. Both campaigns have said they need the state. It is characterized as too close to call.

3% in

Gallego: 71%
Amash: 28%

Alabama

In Alabama, there is a projection. Governer Amash is the winner of its 8 electoral votes with little shock.

0% in

✔Amash
  Gallego

Connecticut

In Connecticut, Senator Gallego is the projected winner of its 6 electoral votes.

1% in

✔Gallego: 58%
  Amash: 40%

District of Columbia

DC projected to go to Mr Gallego. The District of Columbia has never voted for a Republican for president before and tonight it will not start doing so.

2% in

✔Gallego: 90%
  Amash: 9%

Delaware

In Delaware, another blue state, the projected winner is Ruben Gallego. 3 electoral votes for him.

0% in

✔Gallego
  Amash

Maine

Going up to Maine, its characterization is that it is too early to call, but Gallego has a lead in Maine.

1% in

Gallego: 53%
Amash: 44%

Maryland

Going back down to Maryland, Gallego is easily projected to the winner over Governor Amash of its 10 electoral votes.

3% in

✔Gallego: 65%
  Amash: 34%

Massachusetts

Classic blue Massachusetts is also in the bag for Gallego, another 10 electoral votes.

0% in

✔Gallego
  Amash

Missouri

In Missouri the projected winner is Justin Amash. 9 electoral votes.

1% in

✔Amash: 64%
  Gallego: 34%

New Jersey

In New Jersey it is too early to call, though Gallego is leading in New Jersey.

2% in

Gallego: 54%
Amash: 45%

Oklahoma

Oklahoma, possibly the reddest state in America, is projected for Amash.

1% in

✔Amash: 70%
  Gallego: 30%

Rhode Island

Conversely, Rhode Island, one of the bluest states in America, is projected for Gallego.

✔Gallego: 61%
  Amash: 37%

Tennessee

In the great state of Tennessee, Justin Amash is the projected winner.

0% in

✔Amash
  Gallego

Vermont

Finally, in Vermont, Ruben Gallego is the winner of its electoral votes. The well-known former senator Bernie Sanders who passed away just a few months ago endorsed Gallego with passion.

2% in

✔Gallego: 68%
  Amash: 30%

A lot of information just there, here is the electoral map as it stands after all those characterizations.

Amash: 65
Gallego: 38
Too Close: 128
Too Early: 31

With that huge batch of states, Amash so far has 65 electoral votes to Gallego's 38. A whopping 128 electoral votes where the polls have closed are still too close to call, while 31 are too early. So What do we make of those returns?

 - - dialogue by commentators - -

[ElectionsGuy]

 - - dialogue between commentators (8:09 PM) - -

Maddow: I'm sorry to interupt but we have a projection to make. In the state of Virginia which was previously characterized as too early to call by NBC news, it is now projected for Senator Gallego. That adds 15 electoral votes to the Senator's previous tally of 38 electoral votes to now 53 electoral votes.

49% in

✔Gallego: 50%
  Amash: 48%

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: Welcome back to MSNBC. It is 8:30 PM on the east coast on election night 2036. We can project right now that the House of Representatives will be retained by the Republican Party as it has been since the redistricting of 2030. This is not a projection on any specific race, but a whole projection on control of the House of Representatives. Republicans will have more than the 218 necessary for a majority. As of now, its 231 Republicans to 204 Democrats. That can of course change, but as of now that is our estimate.

✔Republicans: 231
  Democrats: 204

Now let’s get to the poll closing in the presidential race. There is only one, Arkansas, and we can project right now that Justin Amash has won that state as expected by most pundits.

Arkansas

2% in

✔Amash: 63%
  Gallego: 35%

We can also use this time right now to go back to previous states that were too early or too close to call.

In New Jersey, which had previously been characterized as too early to call, Gallego had been projected the winner during the commercial break. Even though it Is still early for that state, we have exit poll information we didn’t have before.

23% in

✔Gallego: 55%
  Amash: 44%

In the state of Florida, it is still too close to call. Now 71% in, and it is a razor thin margin between the two candidates. The good news for Gallego is that much of Miami Dade is still out, but at the same time, the northern panhandle is taking a while to report.

71% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 49%

In the state of Georgia, we can say it’s too close to call. Here are the numbers right now. Democrats are optimistic while Republicans are saying there are still way too many votes left.

48% in

Amash: 54%
Gallego: 45%

And we have a breaking new call in the state of Illinois that we just got word of, and that is that Gallego is now the projected winner of that state. 18 electoral votes for the Senator.

31% in

Gallego: 63%
Amash: 35%

Down in the state of Mississippi, it is still too close to call. If the state went to Gallego it would be the first time the state went Democratic since 1976.

37% in

Amash: 53%
Gallego: 46%

Over in North Carolina, it is too close to call again. It is notable however that Gallego has kept a lead all through the night

60% in

Gallego: 52%
Amash: 47%

In Ohio, it is still too close to call as well. We’ve been closely monitoring the results of the state throughout the night as a guiding point to who will win the election. Over half the vote in now.

52% in

Amash: 51%
Gallego: 47%

In Pennsylvania it has been characterized as too close to call. Now experts on the NBC team are stating that it is too close but Amash has an advantage. Very important notification on the state of Pennsylvania.

40% in

Gallego: 53%
Amash: 46%

In Maine, which been too early to call, is now too close to call. That is a characterization change by NBC news. That means Maine now has enough information but the margin is too narrow.

25% in

Gallego: 52%
Amash: 45%

Finally, in New Hampshire it is too close to call.

44% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 48%

Gallego: 84
Amash: 70
Too Close: 110
Too Early: 3

That wraps up our battleground states. Now let’s discuss this with our panel.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm trying to picture a grey haired Chris Hayes with some extra pounds.

Yeah, there will likely be younger people by that point in time but there's now way in knowing who they would be. Obviously people like Matthews and Sharpton will be gone, but I imagine many of the younger anchors staying for life. I don't know how I would imagine a 60+ year old Rachel Maddow...

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: So we have many interesting revelations here. Maine is now too close to call, Illinois went to Gallego, Florida and Georgia are very tight, and many of the Rust Belt battlegrounds such as Ohio and Pennsylvania are too close to call still. Do we see Democrats at all losing faith in some of these swing states, like Ohio and Pennsylvania in particular?

Ball: Well, not exactly. Illinois was just called for Gallego, so I think that's good news. Even though it has been a blue state, Republicans really tried to contest it this time and failed. Even though Amash went into inner city Chicago and campaigned, numbers show about 69% of Cook County is going to Gallego still, so it didn't do much good. There is still about half or more than half of the vote in both Ohio and Pennsylvania left, so I think Gallego can still pull out victories there, but they will be tough.

Kornacki: We also have to pay crucial attention to these sunbelt states. Florida and Georgia are both really tight right now, as well as North Carolina. We did call Virginia for Gallego a little while ago, but Amash can still sweep the rest. With that said, it looks like a lot of urban turnout, based on me looking through the maps, is still being delayed a little in these big electoral vote states. In the next poll closing, Texas will be closed, and Amash absolutely needs that. 43 electoral votes is huge and if he doesn't win it he needs to sweep nearly all the remaining battlegrounds.

Maddow: The other very high profile news now is that Republicans have maintained the house, so if Gallego ends up being elected tonight, he will at least have a divided Congress. If Amash gets elected, he could have the potential to have a united government. We'll see on where the Senate goes tonight. Um, also, even though they're both 3 electoral votes, Maine and New Hampshire are incredibly close. I'll be stunned if those make or break the election but if they do, it'll be big news. Maine hasn't gone Republican since 1988 and New Hampshire since 2024.

 - - Other discussion continues - -

Hayes: Coming up after the break, we will meet with our friend Ari Melber again to see more exit polls that tell us how different groups in the electorate voted. Stay tuned, it is 8:40 PM on election night.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maddow: We are back on this very exciting election night. One of the biggest takeaways of every election is how demographics impact each election. For that reason, we're going to go over to Ari Melber to see the exit polls broken down by group. Over to you, Ari.

Melber Thanks Rachel. Let's first go by gender. There was a wide gender gap in this election. 55% of men voted for Amash while 54% of women voted for Gallego. That's about a 10 point gap between the candidates.

Gender

Men (47%): 55% Amash, 44% Gallego
Women (53%): 54% Gallego, 44% Amash

Among race now, we see Amash has a heavy majority among white voters, however the rest of America is much more mixed. Blacks are voting solidly democratic as you see here and as they have been for nearly a century. Hispanic Americans lean toward the Democratic party, but Amash's performance here looks like a improvement from past GOP performance with them. Finally, the majority of Asians are voting for Amash.

Race/Ethnicity

White (56%): 62% Amash, 37% Gallego
Hispanic (22%): 61% Gallego, 36% Amash
Black (14%): 88% Gallego, 12% Amash
Asian (7%): 54% Amash, 44% Gallego
Other (2%): 51% Gallego, 47% Amash

Going to age, this is nothing new. We've seen this pattern very often, with young voters voting the most Democratic, and the oldest voters voting the most Republican.

Age

18-29 (20%) 57% Gallego, 40% Amash
30-44 (26%): 50% Gallego, 48% Amash
45-64 (39%) 52% Amash, 47% Gallego
65+ (15%): 55% Amash, 44% Gallego

Now to income. Income heavily affects people's chances of voting. The wealthier you are the most likely you are to partake in the political process. The lower income brackets are heavily in favor of Gallego, but as you go up you see more Amash support along the way.

Income

Under $40,000 (20%): 62% Gallego, 36% Amash
$40,000-80,000 (33%): 51% Amash, 47% Gallego
$80,000-120,000 (22%): 55% Amash, 44% Gallego
$120,000+ (25%): 52% Amash, 45% Gallego

Another heavy influence on turnout, education. The majority of this country has a college education, and you can see the most educated people going slightly for Gallego, but less as you go to people who didn't go past a Bachelor's Degree, but back up for Gallego again for less educated people.

Education

Some College/No College (27%): 54% Gallego, 44% Amash
College Graduates (47%): 53% Amash, 46% Gallego
Postgraduates (26%): 50% Gallego, 47% Amash

Among religious groups, protestant christians are still a huge chunk of the electorate, and Amash won a handy majority of them. He also has a majority with Catholics. Gallego does better with people who say they are unaffiliated with a religion and minority religious groups.

Religion

Protestant Christian (46%): 56% Amash, 43% Gallego
Catholic (27%): 53% Amash, 46% Gallego
Unaffiliated (22%): 63% Gallego, 33% Amash
Other (5%): 66% Gallego, 32% Amash

Back to you, Rachel.

[ElectionsGuy]

Will you be presenting the "historical" results of 2016-32?  From your comment about Virginia, it sounds like Walker, like Obama, has a closer reelection race in 2024 than in 2020?

I can do it when I'm completely done with it. The thing is, I wanted to plop this in the future with a little bit of background info (but not too much) so the viewer could pick up on things as the "night" goes on. Part of what makes this interesting is not knowing exactly what happened in the 20 years in between when it comes to trends.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maddow: Thanks Ari! We have a call that we previously had as too close to call. In the state of Mississippi worth 5 electoral votes, we can project that Governor Amash is the winner of that state. It is still close and there is still a lot of vote left, but our team has said he will end up ahead in the end.

47% in

✔Amash: 51%
  Gallego: 48%

Gallego: 84
Amash: 75
Too Close: 108

 - - dialogue by commentators - -

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: Welcome back, it is 9:00 PM on the east coast on election night, and the polls are closing in all of these states scrolling on your screen

Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Michigan, Nebraska, North Dakota, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

We'll give you all the calls we can right now starting in the state of Colorado.


It is too close to call right now in the state of Colorado. A decent prize for whoever carries it.

1% in

Amash: 66%
Gallego: 32%

In New Mexico, we can say that it is too early to call, but Gallego is expected to win in the state of New Mexico.

2% in

Gallego: 55%
Amash: 42%

In the state of Kansas, we project that Justin Amash has won that state, a classic red state.

11% in

✔Amash: 59%
Gallego: 39%

In Nebraska, Justin Amash is also the winner, just 4 electoral votes.

2% in

✔Amash: 53%
Gallego: 45%

In North Dakota, the projected winner is Governor Amash.

0% in

✔Amash
Gallego

In South Dakota, same thing. Justin Amash is the projected winner.

0% in

✔Amash
Gallego

In Wyoming, the projected winner is Justin Amash. No surprise for all of these thus far.

1% in

✔Amash: 72%
Gallego: 25%

Going to Louisiana, it is projected for Governor Amash. 8 electoral votes.

1% in

✔Amash: 62%
Gallego: 37%

To its neighbor Texas, it is too early, but Amash has a lead in Texas. That's what NBC news is telling us right now.

8% in

Amash: 60%
Gallego: 38%

Going eastward now to Minnesota. It is too close to call. If Amash carries it he would be the first Republican to do so since Richard Nixon.

0% in

Gallego
Amash

In the state of Wisconsin, it is also too close to call. Amash targeted it with his Midwest campaign strategy and has firm backing from former president Scott Walker.

1% in

Amash: 57%
Gallego: 42%

In the state of Michigan, Amash's home state, it is also too close to call. It would be embarassing as a governor who won Michigan twice to lose his home state in the presidential race.

0% in

Gallego
Amash

Finally, in the state of New York, no surprise to learn that Ruben Gallego has carried this state, the only state he has carried thus far in this batch of states.

0% in

✔Gallego
  Amash

Here is our electoral map. 270 needed to win. As you can see both candidates are still far from that goal as many big electoral prize states are competitive tonight.

Gallego: 111
Amash: 102
Too Close: 151
Too early: 48

[ElectionsGuy]

(9:08 PM EST)

Hayes: We have two major projections right now that we just got notice of. In the state of Ohio which is usually a highly contested state in presidential elections due to its bellwether status, Justin Amash is now the projected winner in that state. No Republican has won without Ohio.

71% in

✔Amash: 52%
Gallego: 47%

And in the state of New Mexico which closed just a few moments ago and was said to be too early to call, Ruben Gallego has won this state neighboring his home state of Arizona.

4% in

✔Gallego: 54%
Amash: 43%

Amash: 118
Gallego: 116
Too Close: 135
Too early: 43

Will you be presenting the "historical" results of 2016-32?  From your comment about Virginia, it sounds like Walker, like Obama, has a closer reelection race in 2024 than in 2020?

I can do it when I'm completely done with it. The thing is, I wanted to plop this in the future with a little bit of background info (but not too much) so the viewer could pick up on things as the "night" goes on. Part of what makes this interesting is not knowing exactly what happened in the 20 years in between when it comes to trends.

My two cents: I like the way you're doing it, let's us fill in the background ourselves. Agree with your reasoning 100%. Keep it up!

Thank you!

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm sorry about the delay on this, I will get back to this promptly tomorrow.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: Very important calls there, but let’s go back to our discussion. So we’ve been discussing all night how neither of these candidates represent the establishment of the parties they’re running for. Gallego is far more populist and even socialistic in his stances than the Democratic Party, and Amash is far more libertarian than the Republican Party. How could that affect the states they win tonight?

Maddow Certainly some voters who traditionally vote a certain way can vote for the other party. We tend to see that tonight in the Rust Belt and in the Southeast. The degree that Amash wants to cut government spending can really alienate a lot of people, even Republican voters because they care about military spending. At the same time, the degree to which Gallego wants to expand social services of the government will alienate some otherwise Democratic voting people. Both candidates can add voters to their column for those reasons, but they will both inevitably alienate some portions of their own party.

Ball: It’s important to notice that Senator Gallego doesn’t call himself a ‘big government politician’, and Governor Amash doesn’t call himself a ‘politician who doesn’t car for working people’. The slogans that both candidates use are very smart. The way voters hear your message is one of the most important aspects of winning an election, so politicians have mastered this skill.

Hayes: Alright, coming up, we’ll go county by county on some of these swing states as we seek the winner of this presidential election. Stay with us on MSNBC.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: We're back on this very important night, it is election night. We are still waiting on calls in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. 11 states still, and remarkably the number of electoral votes in the 'too close to call' category outnumbers both candidates electoral scores so far. To break down some of the key states to know whats going on tonight, we go to Steve Kornacki again. Steve.

Kornacki: Thank you Chris. First we're going to look at Georgia



62% in

Amash: 52%
Gallego: 47%

Some counties still haven't reported yet, but as you can see the Atlanta area has come in pretty strong for Gallego. Right now Gallego has 47% of the vote. The problem for Gallego now is that much of the urban diverse vote is coming in right now or hasn't come in. It may not be enough to save him. Everything else out is from rural southern Georgia or the Republican northern part of the state.

Out of counties right now we have Gwinnett County. It is the face of new Georgia, it is suburban, diverse, and has over a million people. Right now, Gallego is leading in Gwinnett County 53-46. In counties like DeKalb and Fulton, Gallego is raking up margins by hundreds of thousands of votes. However if you look north to counties like Cherokee and Forsyth, both of which have populations near of over 300,000, They are voting around 4:1 for Amash. So Gallego's challenge is to get enough votes out of metro Atlanta to overcome the rural parts of the state, Amash's challenge is to get out enough votes in the more exurban and rural areas of the state to overcome Atlanta.

As we move to Florida now...



88% in

Gallego: 49%
Amash: 49%

This is so close right now. Only 30,000 votes separating the two candidates in a state that look to have over 10 million votes. Gallego strongholds are southeast Florida and the Orlando area. For instance Miami Dade is 63% Gallego, 37% Amash right now. Broward similarly going 69% Gallego, 30% Amash. But we can see why its close. In Southwest Florida, we got counties like Collier, where Amash is getting 65% of the vote to Gallego's 34%. In the panhandle, a Republican stronghold for over 50 years, Amash is consistently getting over 70% of the vote. So even though southeast Florida makes up over 35% of the state's population, the Republican strongholds of the state are not only going for him, they're going for him big.

Lastly, we'll go to Pennsylvania.



71% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 49%

It is important to note here that all of Philadelphia is in, so it looks like Amash can only go up from here. As you can see, Amash is narrowly leading in the state, but lets go through the counties. Suburban Philly counties like Chester and Buck are going for Amash. Philadelphia is going 80% for Gallego, however its population has stagnated over years, meaning there has been no growing Democratic vote here. Democrats have been trying hard to recover votes they have lost in recent elections, including the western part of the state. Meanwhile the Republicans rack up margins in a big amount of rural counties. From what it looks like Amash will win this.

Back to you, Chris.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hayes: Thanks Steve, that's very interesting insight. Going into counties and regions of state can explain much of the battleground status.

- - dialogue between commentators - -

(9:21 PM EST)

Maddow: We have a call in a state NBC called too close to call. In the state of Pennsylvania with its 18 electoral votes, we can project that it will go to Governor Amash.

74% in

✔Amash: 50%
  Gallego: 49%

Amash: 136
Gallego: 116
Too Close: 117
Too early: 43

That is our electoral map as it stands. Coming up at the top of the hour, we will review all the major battleground states that are undecided.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maddow: Welcome back to MSNBC's election night coverage. I'm here with Chris Wallace, Ari Melber, Krystal Ball, and Steve Kornacki. It is now the bottom of the hour, and we had two projections over the commercial break in a states that were too early or close to call. New Hampshire is projected for Justin Amash. New Hampshire was Mr Amash’s best state in the primary so it’s a very well possibility that it helped him there.

77% in

✔ Amash: 51%
  Gallego: 47%

In Texas, which was too early to call before, it is now also being projected for Mr. Amash. A massive 43 electoral votes added to his column. It looks like the Latino turnout here didn’t help Gallego after all.

39% in

✔Amash: 55%
  Gallego: 43%

We are also going to go over states that were too close to call and also check in on states that are too close to call still.

In Colorado, it is too close to call. It closed just a half hour ago.

24% in

Amash: 54%
Gallego: 44%

In the swing state of Florida, almost all of the vote is in, it is just so close that we still can’t call it. Experts say it is likely now to go down to a recount. Those of you who are old enough know what happened in this state 36 years ago.

92% in

Gallego: 49.3%
Amash: 49.2%

For Georgia, it is too close to call.

68% in

Amash: 51%
Gallego: 48%

In Maine, it is too close to call. Maine hasn't been won by a Republican since 1988.

61% in

Gallego: 52%
Amash: 45%

In North Carolina, it is too close to call. Gallego is still leading. It is notable that this state was Gallego's last state visit before returning to his home in Phoenix.

79% in

Gallego: 51%
Amash: 48%

There are quite a few close states in the Midwest that closed a half hour ago. In Michigan, Justin Amash’s home state, it is too close to call.

22% in

Amash: 55%
Gallego: 44%

In Minnesota, it is too close to call. Despite Amash's supposed Midwest appeal, the question of eliminating farm subsidies might hurt him.

16% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 47%

In Wisconsin, it is also too close to call. Amash has visited Milwaukee several times during his tour.

25% in

Amash: 56%
Gallego: 42%

There are some complaints that we’ve called Illinois too early, but our NBC team is standing by the projection.

57% in

✔Gallego: 56%
  Amash: 42%

That wraps up the close states at this point. Amash has 182 electoral votes, Gallego has 116, and 114 are still out and open. 270 electoral votes are needed to win.

Amash: 182
Gallego: 116
Too Close: 114

Here's a look at the national popular vote thus far. Looks like a very close race.

31% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 48%

 - - discussion continues between commentators - -