Election Night 2036

[Skill and Chance]

Will you be presenting the "historical" results of 2016-32?  From your comment about Virginia, it sounds like Walker, like Obama, has a closer reelection race in 2024 than in 2020?

[Skill and Chance]

Really interesting, and now that I have seen more, I appreciate the mystery that comes from not knowing all of the recent past.  It would be really cool to see county maps for VA/NC/GA, like you did for FL/PA!

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... if Amash is only up 50/49 pre-California against a Hispanic opponent,  It looks like Gallego will take the popular vote.  Of course, he is narrowly losing Texas, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Georgia, so the electoral college is much closer.

[Skill and Chance]

Calling it now: of what remains, Gallego wins only Arizona and there are Florida legal theatrics again.  Which leads to a very important question: Who appointed the current SCOTUS?  Are any of the current Justices still around?  Looks like there would be a lot more moderates given that opposite party Senate control has been the norm.  Scalia probably steps down in 2021.  Ginsburg and Breyer hopefully step down under Clinton and get replaced by moderate left women.  Kennedy obviously wants to retire under divided government, but I think he would prefer R president/D senate to D president/R senate?  Thomas and Alito will be over 85 and presumably didn't retire back in 2021-22.

[Skill and Chance]

Very, very well done!  It obviously didn't become as relevant as I thought, but I would be interested to know the 2036 SCOTUS composition?

[Skill and Chance]

County Maps



Red: Amash
Blue: Gallego



Dark Red: Amash >70%
Medium Red: Amash 60-70%
Light Red: Amash <60%
Light Blue: Gallego <60%
Medium Blue: Gallego 60-70%
Dark Blue: Gallego >70%

It's surprising how similar the maps look to 2008-12 in the South, when the margins have changed by 5% or more in some places.

[Skill and Chance]

Very, very well done!  It obviously didn't become as relevant as I thought, but I would be interested to know the 2036 SCOTUS composition?

Elena Kagan - appointed by Obama
Sonia Sotomayor - appointed by Obama
John Roberts - appointed by Bush
Ginsburg replacement - appointed by Clinton
Scalia replacement - apponted by Clinton
Kennedy replacement - apointed by Walker
Breyer replacement - appointed by Walker
Alito replacement - appointed by Murphy
Thomas replacement - appointed by Murphy

So, probably a left-leaning court?

It would certainly be interesting if the sitting justices retired with that little regard for the president's ideology!  Based on senate control, I have to imagine all of the bolded ones would have to be quite moderate.  If Kennedy stepped down under unified R control, I could see them confirming someone like Scalia to his seat in revenge for Clinton flipping the court.  Also, I have to imagine Roberts would drift noticeably right on a 6D/3R appointed court.