MS-01 Special Election Thread

[RogueBeaver]

AOSHQDD calls the other slot for Kelly.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Zinn up to 17% now.

U.S. House - District 1 - Special General
Northeast, Tupelo
346 of 426 Precincts Reporting - 81%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Zinn, Walter   NP   11,750   17%
Kelly, Trent   NP   10,591   15%
Tagert, Mike   NP   9,230   13%
Pirkle, Greg   NP   5,837   8%
Mills, Mike   NP   5,435   8%
Jones, Starner   NP   5,397   8%
Ross, Henry   NP   3,667   5%
Adams, Boyce   NP   3,390   5%
Holliday, Edward   NP   3,372   5%
Adcock, Sam   NP   3,347   5%
Collins, Nancy   NP   3,218   5%
Whitwell, Quentin   NP   2,919   4%
Sparks, Daniel   NP   2,599   4%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

U.S. House - District 1 - Special General
Northeast, Tupelo
362 of 426 Precincts Reporting - 85%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Zinn, Walter   NP   12,799   17%
Kelly, Trent   NP   10,929   15%
Tagert, Mike   NP   9,877   13%
Pirkle, Greg   NP   5,950   8%
Mills, Mike   NP   5,905   8%
Jones, Starner   NP   5,500   7%
Ross, Henry   NP   3,815   5%
Adams, Boyce   NP   3,630   5%
Adcock, Sam   NP   3,509   5%
Holliday, Edward   NP   3,423   5%
Collins, Nancy   NP   3,359   5%
Whitwell, Quentin   NP   2,939   4%
Sparks, Daniel   NP   2,624   4%


Well, at least Zinn got 1st place in the jungle. I suppose that's something for a MS democrat to be proud of. I don't think he can win the runoff though.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tagert back within 1,000 votes of Kelly now.

U.S. House - District 1 - Special General
Northeast, Tupelo
372 of 426 Precincts Reporting - 87%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Zinn, Walter   NP   13,027   17%
Kelly, Trent   NP   10,971   15%
Tagert, Mike   NP   10,056   13%
Pirkle, Greg   NP   6,012   8%
Mills, Mike   NP   5,943   8%
Jones, Starner   NP   5,755   8%
Ross, Henry   NP   3,939   5%
Adams, Boyce   NP   3,659   5%
Adcock, Sam   NP   3,528   5%
Holliday, Edward   NP   3,490   5%
Collins, Nancy   NP   3,428   5%
Whitwell, Quentin   NP   3,036   4%
Sparks, Daniel   NP   2,662   4%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First slot called for Zinn!

U.S. House - District 1 - Special General
Northeast, Tupelo
376 of 426 Precincts Reporting - 88%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
 R  Zinn, Walter   NP   13,152   17%
Kelly, Trent   NP   11,089   15%
Tagert, Mike   NP   10,220   13%
Pirkle, Greg   NP   6,060   8%
Mills, Mike   NP   6,023   8%
Jones, Starner   NP   5,861   8%
Ross, Henry   NP   4,023   5%
Adams, Boyce   NP   3,673   5%
Adcock, Sam   NP   3,547   5%
Holliday, Edward   NP   3,528   5%
Collins, Nancy   NP   3,458   5%
Whitwell, Quentin   NP   3,052   4%
Sparks, Daniel   NP   2,710   4%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AP still not calling 2nd runoff slot for Kelly. Anyone know why?

U.S. House - District 1 - Special General
Northeast, Tupelo
386 of 426 Precincts Reporting - 91%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
  R Zinn, Walter   NP   13,472   17%
Kelly, Trent   NP   11,707   15%
Tagert, Mike   NP   10,502   13%
Mills, Mike   NP   6,334   8%
Pirkle, Greg   NP   6,152   8%
Jones, Starner   NP   5,966   8%
Ross, Henry   NP   4,078   5%
Adams, Boyce   NP   3,759   5%
Adcock, Sam   NP   3,672   5%
Holliday, Edward   NP   3,594   5%
Collins, Nancy   NP   3,524   4%
Whitwell, Quentin   NP   3,056   4%
Sparks, Daniel   NP   2,723   3%

[Del Tachi]

I think Tagert's back in-it now, he'll need strong showings from what's left out in Choctaw, Monroe and Pontotoc.  

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So much for Tagert being back in it. He's trailing Kelly by more than 2,000 now.


U.S. House - District 1 - Special General
Northeast, Tupelo
391 of 426 Precincts Reporting - 92%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
 R   Zinn, Walter   NP   13,929   17%
Kelly, Trent   NP   12,841   16%
Tagert, Mike   NP   10,627   13%
Pirkle, Greg   NP   6,592   8%
Mills, Mike   NP   6,428   8%
Jones, Starner   NP   6,024   7%
Ross, Henry   NP   4,101   5%
Adams, Boyce   NP   3,792   5%
Collins, Nancy   NP   3,736   5%
Adcock, Sam   NP   3,731   5%
Holliday, Edward   NP   3,719   5%
Whitwell, Quentin   NP   3,066   4%
Sparks, Daniel   NP   2,745   3%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Zinn and Kelly called by AP to proceed!

U.S. House - District 1 - Special General
Northeast, Tupelo
419 of 426 Precincts Reporting - 98%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
  R    Zinn, Walter   NP   14,844   17%
  R    Kelly, Trent   NP   14,110   16%
Tagert, Mike   NP   11,017   13%
Pirkle, Greg   NP   7,057   8%
Jones, Starner   NP   6,932   8%
Mills, Mike   NP   6,780   8%
Ross, Henry   NP   4,216   5%
Adcock, Sam   NP   3,938   5%
Adams, Boyce   NP   3,915   5%
Collins, Nancy   NP   3,912   5%
Holliday, Edward   NP   3,904   5%
Whitwell, Quentin   NP   3,103   4%
Sparks, Daniel   NP   2,779   3%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results:

U.S. House - District 1 - Special General
Northeast, Tupelo
426 of 426 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
  R    Zinn, Walter   NP   15,135   17%
  R    Kelly, Trent   NP   14,239   16%
Tagert, Mike   NP   11,115   13%
Pirkle, Greg   NP   7,094   8%
Jones, Starner   NP   6,951   8%
Mills, Mike   NP   6,804   8%
Ross, Henry   NP   4,285   5%
Adcock, Sam   NP   3,962   5%
Collins, Nancy   NP   3,953   5%
Adams, Boyce   NP   3,938   5%
Holliday, Edward   NP   3,930   5%
Whitwell, Quentin   NP   3,106   4%
Sparks, Daniel   NP   2,790   3%

[Maxwell]

Congrats Congressman Kelly!

[smoltchanov]

Congrats Congressman Kelly!

Yeah, as an old sayng goes -  he can "measure drapes" for his office in Washington, DC, now. Any info about him besides being former Democrat (as, probably, half of the candidates were) and local official?

[Ebsy]

The sad thing is, with only 17%, Zinn did better than anyone thought he would.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The sad thing is, with only 17%, Zinn did better than anyone thought he would.

Yeah. Kudos to him on getting 1st place in the jungle. I just can't see him surviving the runoff though, the district is just too conservative. A Gene-Taylor type conservadem might have had a shot, but Zinn is definitely not a conservadem.

[smoltchanov]

The sad thing is, with only 17%, Zinn did better than anyone thought he would.

Yeah. Kudos to him on getting 1st place in the jungle. I just can't see him surviving the runoff though, the district is just too conservative. A Gene-Taylor type conservadem might have had a shot, but Zinn is definitely not a conservadem.

Even Gene Taylor wouldn't, most likely, win this race : more polarization, then few years ago, and abysmal turnout among Democratic-leaning constituency in specials of late.  A very flawed Republican candidate would be needed too (someone publicly posing with KKK hood on his head for example))))). In fact - Kelly, as a long-time law enforcement official, and without such baggage, is a good candidate for this district

[gespb19]

Congrats Congressman Kelly!

Yeah, as an old sayng goes -  he can "measure drapes" for his office in Washington, DC, now. Any info about him besides being former Democrat (as, probably, half of the candidates were) and local official?

I don't know much else about him, but he did make a comment in of the debates about wanting to restore voting rights for ex-felons.

[smoltchanov]

Congrats Congressman Kelly!

Yeah, as an old sayng goes -  he can "measure drapes" for his office in Washington, DC, now. Any info about him besides being former Democrat (as, probably, half of the candidates were) and local official?

I don't know much else about him, but he did make a comment in of the debates about wanting to restore voting rights for ex-felons.

Not bad. Thanks!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Numbers have changed slightly from last night:

U.S. House - District 1 - Special General
Northeast, Tupelo
426 of 426 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
 R   Zinn, Walter   NP   15,261   17%
 R   Kelly, Trent   NP   14,348   16%
Tagert, Mike   NP   11,196   13%
Pirkle, Greg   NP   7,112   8%
Jones, Starner   NP   6,962   8%
Mills, Mike   NP   6,889   8%
Ross, Henry   NP   4,293   5%
Adams, Boyce   NP   3,994   5%
Adcock, Sam   NP   3,987   5%
Collins, Nancy   NP   3,975   5%
Holliday, Edward   NP   3,938   4%
Whitwell, Quentin   NP   3,108   4%
Sparks, Daniel   NP   2,813   3%


Tagert Endorses Kelly for the runoff: http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/41125/

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bump, as we come up on the final weekend before the runoff.

Is anyone willing to be bold and predict a Zinn victory?

Also, for what it's worth, here's the recent results for this district:

2008 Special House: 54-46 Childers (D)
2008 President: 62-37 McCain
2008 House: 54-44 Childers (D)
2010 House: 55-41 Nunnelee
2012 House: 60-37 Nunnelee
2012 President: 62-37 Romney
2014 House: 68-29 Nunnelee

[7,052,770]

Is anyone willing to be bold and predict a Zinn victory?

It would be awesome, but he's the wrong kind of Democrat to pull off a victory in District 1, and he's not facing a flawed Republican like Childers did when he won.

[Miles]

It also went 61/37 for Cochran. Given that MS already had one of the lowest turnout rates last year (<30%), thats probably what I'd expect for this election, likely even on the higher end for Zinn.

The district cast about 150K votes in the Senate race. For comparison, when Childers first won the seat in the competitive '08 special, about 107K votes were cast.

[smoltchanov]

It also went 61/37 for Cochran. Given that MS already had one of the lowest turnout rates last year (<30%), thats probably what I'd expect for this election, likely even on the higher end for Zinn.

The district cast about 150K votes in the Senate race. For comparison, when Childers first won the seat in the competitive '08 special, about 107K votes were cast.

I will be even more pessimistic: about 2:1 (66-67% - 33-34%) Kelly. Childers was a type of candidate who occasionaly (bad opponent, wave year)  can still win this district (though, obviously, not against Cochran), Zinn - isn't

[NewYorkExpress]

My Guess on the runoff;

Kelly; 69.78%
Zinn 30.22%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

National Democrats are ignoring Zinn, and Zinn says the only reason MS is a non-atlas red state is because national democrats refuse to make any effort in the state:
http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/41233/

[free my dawg]

National Democrats are ignoring Zinn, and Zinn says the only reason MS is a non-atlas red state is because national democrats refuse to make any effort in the state:
http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/41233/

He has a point - with enough investment in a competent machine in the state, they could at least compete somewhat in MS.