MS-01 Special Election Thread

[gespb19]

My apologies if there's already a thread.

Election is May 12. With 13 candidates and over 50% of the vote required to win the election, a runoff is almost certain. At this point, it looks like Mike Tagert, Trent Kelly, and Boyce Adams are the frontrunners. Although Walter Zinn could sneak in the runoff since he's the only Democrat in the field (and the GOP will be splitting their vote between 12).

The runoff would be on June 2, BTW.

[smoltchanov]

I understand that ALL republican candidates are, generally, "solid conservatives" (especially - because it's a Misssissippi), and lone Democrat  (who happens to be Black) - most likely left-of-center at least. But some differences (say, "establishment more pragmatic conservative" vs "radical tea-party conservative") probably exist. Can you explain in more details?

[gespb19]

I understand that ALL republican candidates are, generally, "solid conservatives" (especially - because it's a Misssissippi), and lone Democrat  (who happens to be Black) - most likely left-of-center at least. But some differences (say, "establishment more pragmatic conservative" vs "radical tea-party conservative") probably exist. Can you explain in more details?

I'll be happy to explain further. I live in Hattiesburg (well south of the district) but have been following this race closely. Here's a recap on the main candidates

Mike Tagert - Currently transportation commissioner for Mississippi's Northern District. Establishment type, backed by the Barbour machine, etc. Actually lives south of the district in Starkville, so we'll see if that ends up hurting him. He did make a comment last year about supporting an increased gas tax to pay for infrastructure, which could also deter his support. Probably the front runner at this point, and likely to make runoff.

Trent Kelly - District attorney for a few counties in the northeast part of the district. Was actually a Democrat up until 2011 (Dems still have a strong presence in local politics in NE Mississippi). Should perform well in the northeast part of the district, which includes Tupelo/Lee County.

Boyce Adams - Appears to lean toward the Tea Party side of the GOP. He's a small business owner in Columbus. Ran for a spot on the Mississippi public service commission in 2011 but lost to Elvis' 2nd cousin. Supposedly has the quiet support of governor Phil Bryant. Has been quoted as saying that some from the Obama administration should be thrown in jail, and has also said that he'd put GWB on Mt. Rushmore.

Starner Jones - physician from Pontotoc and a possible wild card in the race. Hard core Tea Partier who has been campaigning hard against Obama and welfare. Recently endorsed by Herman Cain.

Walter Zinn - Pontotoc attorney and only Democrat in field. Has somewhat of a shot to make runoff as he is only Dem in the field and GOP will be splitting vote between 12 candidates. He would, however, have no shot at winning the runoff if he makes it that far.

The following candidates are expected to be minor players in this race

Quentin Whitwell - former city councilman in Jackson who now lives in Oxford. May have support in Lafayette County (Oxford) but probably a long shot to make runoff.

Henry Ross - mayor of Europa who ran for this seat in 2010 and 2012. Big Tea Party guy who's been endorsed by the Tea Party Express. Should carry Webster County (home county) and maybe Calhoun County but that's probably his ceiling.

Nancy Collins - state senator from Tupelo.

Daniel Sparks - originally from Tishomingo County but now in Oxford as an attorney. Some people think of him as a potential dark horse but I don't see it.

Chip Mills - County prosecutor from Fulton. Should do well in his home county of Itawamba but won't be a factor otherwise

Sam Adcock - businessman from Columbus. Former Trent Lott staffer.

Greg Pirkle - Tupelo attorney

Ed Holliday - Tupelo dentist. Tea Party guy.

[gespb19]

Also, DeSoto County (Memphis suburbs) will be huge in this race. No candidates in the race are from DeSoto (which is shocking, honestly) so that area is very much up for grabs.

[smoltchanov]

Thanks a lot for very interesting details! IMHO, in districts like this Democrats must hope (and may be - work for) for victory of as "sane" Republican as posssible (and vice versa - for Republicans in strongly Democratic districts), not for miraculous victory of their candidate, who doesn't fit district well.

[ag]

Thanks a lot for very interesting details! IMHO, in districts like this Democrats must hope (and may be - work for) for victory of as "sane" Republican as posssible (and vice versa - for Republicans in strongly Democratic districts), not for miraculous victory of their candidate, who doesn't fit district well.

There is evidence that radicals on the othe side help with independents elsewhere. It is not at all clear that Dems are better off with moderate Republicans.

[smoltchanov]

Thanks a lot for very interesting details! IMHO, in districts like this Democrats must hope (and may be - work for) for victory of as "sane" Republican as posssible (and vice versa - for Republicans in strongly Democratic districts), not for miraculous victory of their candidate, who doesn't fit district well.

There is evidence that radicals on the othe side help with independents elsewhere. It is not at all clear that Dems are better off with moderate Republicans.

Democrats will not win district like this. Especially - with candidate they have now (Childers won it, but - against flawed opponent, in wave year, and he was at least somewhat conservative and white). So they may either help elect "sane" (though conservative) Republican, or deal with rabid right-wing tea-partier as their congressman. I prefer first choice.

[RFayette]

Is Starner Jones using racially coded messages when campaigning?  Your description sounds a little fishy.

[gespb19]

Is Starner Jones using racially coded messages when campaigning?  Your description sounds a little fishy.

I don't have enough posts to post a link yet, but go on YouTube and search "Starner Jones Welfare Wagon".

[publicunofficial]

Is Starner Jones using racially coded messages when campaigning?  Your description sounds a little fishy.

I don't have enough posts to post a link yet, but go on YouTube and search "Starner Jones Welfare Wagon".

Here

Doesn't seem racist, but I do like the imagery of "pulling the plug on Obama's policies" accompanied with the sound of a flatline and a shot of an EKG. A bit morbid coming from an actual doctor.

[Maxwell]

If I had to guess - Jones probably wins in the end. Notable, if controversial ads work better than being an insider or having the support of the governor.

For some reason I decided to watch the ads for all of these candidates - boy was it "constitutional conservative" this and "biblical values" that. I have to say - Sam Adcock had the best ones (that smile on "you know how i feel about gun control" part of the ad was charming in the right way for that district). I'm wondering why you had very little to say about him.

[smoltchanov]

If I had to guess - Jones probably wins in the end. Notable, if controversial ads work better than being an insider or having the support of the governor.

For some reason I decided to watch the ads for all of these candidates - boy was it "constitutional conservative" this and "biblical values" that. I have to say - Sam Adcock had the best ones (that smile on "you know how i feel about gun control" part of the ad was charming in the right way for that district). I'm wondering why you had very little to say about him.

Well, if Jones is a real threat - i would (if i was a Missisippi Democratic party leader) abandon all attempts to elect unwinnable Democratic candidate, and support Tagert or Kelly. Simply to have more or less reasonable alternative in run-off.... Of course - indirectly...

[Maxwell]

If I had to guess - Jones probably wins in the end. Notable, if controversial ads work better than being an insider or having the support of the governor.

For some reason I decided to watch the ads for all of these candidates - boy was it "constitutional conservative" this and "biblical values" that. I have to say - Sam Adcock had the best ones (that smile on "you know how i feel about gun control" part of the ad was charming in the right way for that district). I'm wondering why you had very little to say about him.

Well, if Jones is a real threat - i would (if i was a Missisippi Democratic party leader) abandon all attempts to elect unwinnable Democratic candidate, and support Tagert or Kelly. Simply to have more or less reasonable alternative in run-off.... Of course - indirectly...

Of this group I actually think Adcock would technically be the "moderate". He called himself a "practical conservative" which means he doesn't want to associate himself with the Tea Party or be a "Constitutional Conservative". For this district, calling yourself "practical" is about 2 steps away from calling yourself a socialist.

[smoltchanov]

If I had to guess - Jones probably wins in the end. Notable, if controversial ads work better than being an insider or having the support of the governor.

For some reason I decided to watch the ads for all of these candidates - boy was it "constitutional conservative" this and "biblical values" that. I have to say - Sam Adcock had the best ones (that smile on "you know how i feel about gun control" part of the ad was charming in the right way for that district). I'm wondering why you had very little to say about him.

Well, if Jones is a real threat - i would (if i was a Missisippi Democratic party leader) abandon all attempts to elect unwinnable Democratic candidate, and support Tagert or Kelly. Simply to have more or less reasonable alternative in run-off.... Of course - indirectly...

Of this group I actually think Adcock would technically be the "moderate". He called himself a "practical conservative" which means he doesn't want to associate himself with the Tea Party or be a "Constitutional Conservative". For this district, calling yourself "practical" is about 2 steps away from calling yourself a socialist.

Fully agree. Though Kelley is, most lilely, must be at least somewhat pragmatic too (as former Democrat). Even most conservative Democrats (and even in states like Mississippi) are usually a bit more pragmatic then their Republican counterparts...

[publicunofficial]

If I had to guess - Jones probably wins in the end. Notable, if controversial ads work better than being an insider or having the support of the governor.

For some reason I decided to watch the ads for all of these candidates - boy was it "constitutional conservative" this and "biblical values" that. I have to say - Sam Adcock had the best ones (that smile on "you know how i feel about gun control" part of the ad was charming in the right way for that district). I'm wondering why you had very little to say about him.

Well, if Jones is a real threat - i would (if i was a Missisippi Democratic party leader) abandon all attempts to elect unwinnable Democratic candidate, and support Tagert or Kelly. Simply to have more or less reasonable alternative in run-off.... Of course - indirectly...

Of this group I actually think Adcock would technically be the "moderate". He called himself a "practical conservative" which means he doesn't want to associate himself with the Tea Party or be a "Constitutional Conservative". For this district, calling yourself "practical" is about 2 steps away from calling yourself a socialist.

Fully agree. Though Kelley is, most lilely, must be at least somewhat pragmatic too (as former Democrat). Even most conservative Democrats (and even in states like Mississippi) are usually a bit more pragmatic then their Republican counterparts...

IIRC, state legislators have a tendency to shift either hard left or hard right when they switch parties, often as an attempt to convince their new party that they are genuine. Some of the most conservative Republican legislators in the South were Democrats as recently as the Bush years.

[smoltchanov]

If I had to guess - Jones probably wins in the end. Notable, if controversial ads work better than being an insider or having the support of the governor.

For some reason I decided to watch the ads for all of these candidates - boy was it "constitutional conservative" this and "biblical values" that. I have to say - Sam Adcock had the best ones (that smile on "you know how i feel about gun control" part of the ad was charming in the right way for that district). I'm wondering why you had very little to say about him.

Well, if Jones is a real threat - i would (if i was a Missisippi Democratic party leader) abandon all attempts to elect unwinnable Democratic candidate, and support Tagert or Kelly. Simply to have more or less reasonable alternative in run-off.... Of course - indirectly...

Of this group I actually think Adcock would technically be the "moderate". He called himself a "practical conservative" which means he doesn't want to associate himself with the Tea Party or be a "Constitutional Conservative". For this district, calling yourself "practical" is about 2 steps away from calling yourself a socialist.

Fully agree. Though Kelley is, most lilely, must be at least somewhat pragmatic too (as former Democrat). Even most conservative Democrats (and even in states like Mississippi) are usually a bit more pragmatic then their Republican counterparts...

IIRC, state legislators have a tendency to shift either hard left or hard right when they switch parties, often as an attempt to convince their new party that they are genuine. Some of the most conservative Republican legislators in the South were Democrats as recently as the Bush years.

Disagree. Look, for example, at Louisiana state Senate. A lot of party switchers there (Alario, Amedee, Adlee, Chabert, and so on). None of them is among the most conservative Republican members according to Boris Shor's research. Conservative - sure, but mostly pragmatic. They simply foresaw that Republicans will be in majority in their state in the near future and accelerated the process by swithing himself, and thus - preserving their political influence. Frequently it's all that simple...

[Miles]

^ Guillory is, at least in terms of style and rhetoric.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

May 12 is the primary?

[gespb19]

May 12 is the primary?

It's not a primary but it may as well be. The setup will be very similar to Louisiana's "jungle primary".

[smoltchanov]

^ Guillory is, at least in terms of style and rhetoric.

Yes. But he has a Democratic district and simply couldn't get elected to state Senate from it with a program he espouses now. Now, when he decided to forego a reelection attempt, and decided to run statewide - he is "free to express himself"...Statewide in Louisiana it's frequently "the more conservative - the better". At least - now.

[RFayette]

Those ads were a good reminder just how right-wing Northern Mississippi is.  The only outlier was Nancy Collins, whose ads consisted of talking about "protecting Social Security and Medicare".......she almost sounded like a conservative Democrat.

[Maxwell]

Those ads were a good reminder just how right-wing Northern Mississippi is.  The only outlier was Nancy Collins, whose ads consisted of talking about "protecting Social Security and Medicare".......she almost sounded like a conservative Democrat.

Oh god yes her ads were annoying.

[smoltchanov]

Those ads were a good reminder just how right-wing Northern Mississippi is.  The only outlier was Nancy Collins, whose ads consisted of talking about "protecting Social Security and Medicare".......she almost sounded like a conservative Democrat.

Southern Mississippi (Pallazzo's district) is even more conservative. Chris McDaniel and some other notable right-wingers hail from there.. Northern still elects considerable number of "good old boy" conservative Democrats on state and local level at least...

[gespb19]

Those ads were a good reminder just how right-wing Northern Mississippi is.  The only outlier was Nancy Collins, whose ads consisted of talking about "protecting Social Security and Medicare".......she almost sounded like a conservative Democrat.

Southern Mississippi (Pallazzo's district) is even more conservative. Chris McDaniel and some other notable right-wingers hail from there.. Northern still elects considerable number of "good old boy" conservative Democrats on state and local level at least...

It's a different kind of conservatism though. North Mississippi is more of a strong social conservatism while South Mississippi conservatives are generally more concerned about the fiscal side of politics (this is especially true in the more 'urban' areas like Gulfport/Biloxi and Hattiesburg). South Mississippians are generally social conservatives as well, but most vote GOP because of their stances on fiscal issues.

[smoltchanov]

Those ads were a good reminder just how right-wing Northern Mississippi is.  The only outlier was Nancy Collins, whose ads consisted of talking about "protecting Social Security and Medicare".......she almost sounded like a conservative Democrat.

Southern Mississippi (Pallazzo's district) is even more conservative. Chris McDaniel and some other notable right-wingers hail from there.. Northern still elects considerable number of "good old boy" conservative Democrats on state and local level at least...

It's a different kind of conservatism though. North Mississippi is more of a strong social conservatism while South Mississippi conservatives are generally more concerned about the fiscal side of politics (this is especially true in the more 'urban' areas like Gulfport/Biloxi and Hattiesburg). South Mississippians are generally social conservatives as well, but most vote GOP because of their stances on fiscal issues.

Yes. IMHO, that's distinction is exemplified by such well-known figures of the past from NE Mississippi as  Theodore Bilbo (racist, anti-Semite, but New Dealer) and, to some extent, John Rankin (racist, anti-Semite, but, at least initially, somewhat New Dealer too). Of course - South Mississippi politicians of the past tended to be racist too (Colmer, for example), but seldom - of the same intensity...