MS-01 Special Election Thread

[smoltchanov]

Liberal Black in quintessentially Blue Dog conservative (but populist) and mostly white Southern Democratic district? No snowball cchance in hell, a case of bad candidate. Democrats had little chances in this district with ANY candidate, especially this being special and Kelly seeming to have little baggage, but absolutely no - with Zinn.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In any case, Zinn's performance in the jungle was surprising, so I'm being fairly generous to him in my GE prediction:

Kelly: 60.5%
Zinn: 39.5%

[gespb19]

Zinn may win Clay County but that's probably it.

[mds32]

A new poll has come in for this race.

Kelly 54%
Zinn 37%

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-mississippi-polling/

[smoltchanov]

A new poll has come in for this race.

Kelly 54%
Zinn 37%

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-mississippi-polling/

If so - really good for Zinn. About 60-40 when undecideds will decide))))

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kelly spent a TON of time today on GOTV efforts:


Is he actually nervous about tomorrow or what?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think Zinn can crack 40%, maybe higher.

How much higher? I can see 41 or 42 if he's really lucky, but definitely not any higher than that.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think Zinn can crack 40%, maybe higher.

How much higher? I can see 41 or 42 if he's really lucky, but definitely not any higher than that.

This will be an amazing election night. I am looking forward to it But the suspense is killing me

LOLOL.

I don't expect to get an early call in the race since turnout won't be that great, deflating the Kelly margin in terms of raw votes. But he is going to win, and I stand by my earlier prediction:

In any case, Zinn's performance in the jungle was surprising, so I'm being fairly generous to him in my GE prediction:

Kelly: 60.5%
Zinn: 39.5%

[smoltchanov]

I will be happy to err in my early pessimistic (for Zinn) prediction. If so- it will mean one of two things: either strong Black and depressed white turnout (rare thing in specials) or a LOT of white vote for liberal black Zinn (also rarity in Mississippi). We shall see...

[aktheden]

National Democrats are ignoring Zinn, and Zinn says the only reason MS is a non-atlas red state is because national democrats refuse to make any effort in the state:
http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/41233/

He has a point - with enough investment in a competent machine in the state, they could at least compete somewhat in MS.

Why bother...the state would rather vote for a mouse with an R next to its name than a Democrat

[smoltchanov]

National Democrats are ignoring Zinn, and Zinn says the only reason MS is a non-atlas red state is because national democrats refuse to make any effort in the state:
http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/41233/

He has a point - with enough investment in a competent machine in the state, they could at least compete somewhat in MS.

Why bother...the state would rather vote for a mouse with an R next to its name than a Democrat

Not always. It voted for Childers twice in 2008. But you need a right Democrat ("Misssissippi Democrat", not national one) and problematic Republican for that to happen (big Democratic wave may help too..)

[rbt48]

I'll go with Kelly 64%, Zinn 36%.

[Del Tachi]

Kelly - 61%
Zinn - 39%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Just over 3 and a half hours until the polls close. If you live in MS-01 and are eligible to vote, please exercise your right to vote if you have not already done so.

Results Page:  http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/MS_Page_0602.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[ElectionsGuy]

Kelly - 61%
Zinn - 39%

[gespb19]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.wjtv.com/story/29215373/runoff-in-mississippi-will-fill-1-of-2-vacancies-us-house

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls closing in three minutes. I wonder when AoSHQ will call it

Polls are still open for another 53 minutes.

[gespb19]

https://twitter.com/rwneilljr/status/605875354343870465

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also, AOSHQDD is NOT covering this election.

[Ebsy]

This could prove exciting.

[free my dawg]

National Democrats are ignoring Zinn, and Zinn says the only reason MS is a non-atlas red state is because national democrats refuse to make any effort in the state:
http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/41233/

He has a point - with enough investment in a competent machine in the state, they could at least compete somewhat in MS.

Why bother...the state would rather vote for a mouse with an R next to its name than a Democrat

Because there's a sizable base for the future. It's possible that in 25 years, Mississippi will become a battleground state.

[gespb19]

Wouldn't be surprised if a lot of GOP voters lost interest in this runoff after their candidate lost in the first race.

[windjammer]

National Democrats are ignoring Zinn, and Zinn says the only reason MS is a non-atlas red state is because national democrats refuse to make any effort in the state:
http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/41233/

He has a point - with enough investment in a competent machine in the state, they could at least compete somewhat in MS.

Why bother...the state would rather vote for a mouse with an R next to its name than a Democrat

Because there's a sizable base for the future. It's possible that in 25 years, Mississippi will become a battleground state.

In 2024

[gespb19]

Do the most Republican counties come in first?

It varies, except that Pontotoc is almost always last.

[gespb19]

We need a county by county map... Does anyone have a link?

http://djournal.com