MS-01 Special Election Thread

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And with 47% of the vote in, Kelly has won the MS-01 Special Election 68% to 32%, a margin of over 14,000 votes!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

55% in, Kelly now winning 69-31.

Looks like Kelly didn't need to do all that GOTV the last two days.

Also, earlier in the night Zinn was leading in Winston, Lowndes and Benton counties. He is now trailing in all of those counties. The only county Zinn is leading in is Marshall County (58-41%), but he is not even getting a 1,000 vote margin there.

[ElectionsGuy]

So much for the high turnout for Zinn.

[gespb19]

Kelly cracks 70%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

68% in, Kelly now winning 71-29.

[Türkisblau]

I think Zinn can crack 40%, maybe higher.

How much higher? I can see 41 or 42 if he's really lucky, but definitely not any higher than that.

This will be an amazing election night. I am looking forward to it But the suspense is killing me

71-29 lol

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

84%, 70-30 Kelly.

Wow.

Zinn did win Marshall County, but his margin there has narrowed to 54-46. Zinn is leading by only 8 votes in Clay County, still some vote out there. Everything else went for Kelly.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

89%, 71-29 Kelly.

WTF happened to Zinn? Kelly is getting 3% more of the vote than Nunnelee did in last year's republican tidal wave.

[Türkisblau]

Plenty of nobody democrats like Zinn lose by this much or even more each cycle. "Pryored" or "Blanched" is used b/c they're incumbents who lost by a large margin.

Anyways, this should be a surprise to anyone as DWS' zero state strategy has been consistently reaching its goals.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Plenty of nobody democrats like Zinn lose by this much or even more each cycle. "Pryored" or "Blanched" is used b/c they're incumbents who lost by a large margin.

Anyways, this should be a surprise to anyone as DWS' zero state strategy has been consistently reaching its goals.

I know where Pryored and Blanched come from, but both of those candidates came FAR closer to winning than Zinn just did. Zinn's in his own, laughable category.

[Türkisblau]

Plenty of nobody democrats like Zinn lose by this much or even more each cycle. "Pryored" or "Blanched" is used b/c they're incumbents who lost by a large margin.

Anyways, this should be a surprise to anyone as DWS' zero state strategy has been consistently reaching its goals.

I know where Pryored and Blanched come from, but both of those candidates came FAR closer to winning than Zinn just did. Zinn's in his own, laughable category.

I know you do but the only reason we're paying attention to Zinn is because it's a special election. Plenty of non-incumbents lose by this much or even more! This is literally meaningless; it just confirms what we already know, that democrats have effectively destroyed themselves, at least for the moment, in states like Mississippi.

[Maxwell]

lol people getting misled by a Gravis Poll.

[gespb19]

Not surprisingly, 12 of the 13 remaining precincts are in Pontotoc County.

[aktheden]

I said the Southern whites will rather vote for a mouse than a Democrat...and I was right! MS isn't going blue for the next 40 yrs...minimum

[smoltchanov]

I said the Southern whites will rather vote for a mouse than a Democrat...and I was right! MS isn't going blue for the next 40 yrs...minimum

No on expected southern whites to vote for liberal black Democrat. Democratic party destroyed itself in these areas since at least 1948, but especially - since 1972. That finally happened after 2008......

P.S. I was slightly too optimistic in my prediction (2:1 for Kelly), but, generally, it wasn't too bad...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results:

U.S. House - District 1 - Oth Runoff
Northeast, Tupelo
426 of 426 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Kelly, Trent     NP     68,852           70%
Zinn, Walter   NP   29,402   30%

[Ebsy]

lol people getting misled by a Gravis Poll.

Death to Gravis!

[smoltchanov]

lol people getting misled by a Gravis Poll.

Death to Gravis!

Since 2014 at least i am an adherent of old saying (in somewhat corrected form): "the ONLY good poll is made on election day"...)))) But, IMHO, it was unreasonable to expect Zinn to overperform Childers in MS-01. And Childers got 41% here in 2010 and 37-38% (with no campaigning, but still - .... ) in 2014...

[ElectionsGuy]

Something similar to this happened in AL-01 last year or the year before. Turnout sucks (like all specials), especially black turnout, and there's only so many people that care about every election, and that demographic skews significantly older. Therefore, democratic turnout is vastly overestimated.

[7,052,770]

About what I figured. We can be competitive in Mississippi under circumstances, and this race didn't come close to resembling those circumstances.

Zinn seems like a cool guy, but I don't see him ever winning any real office, unless he can somehow slide into the state legislature one day (and who would want to do that anyway?)

[smoltchanov]

About what I figured. We can be competitive in Mississippi under circumstances, and this race didn't come close to resembling those circumstances.

Zinn seems like a cool guy, but I don't see him ever winning any real office, unless he can somehow slide into the state legislature one day (and who would want to do that anyway?)

In Black-majority state legislative district - why not?

[gespb19]

I'll be interested to see who replaces Bennie Thompson in MS-02 in a few years. Zinn won't run for that position, but some (or several) black Democrats will. I'm sure most of you know that MS-02 is the only congressional district in the state where blacks are the majority and has a PVI of D+10.

[7,052,770]

About what I figured. We can be competitive in Mississippi under circumstances, and this race didn't come close to resembling those circumstances.

Zinn seems like a cool guy, but I don't see him ever winning any real office, unless he can somehow slide into the state legislature one day (and who would want to do that anyway?)

In Black-majority state legislative district - why not?

I mean, he could. There's just a lot of people who want those seats though, so why him? He was the only Democrat to even bother for this hopeless seat, but a safe D legislative seat will be a very tough challenge for anyone.

I'll be interested to see who replaces Bennie Thompson in MS-02 in a few years. Zinn won't run for that position, but some (or several) black Democrats will. I'm sure most of you know that MS-02 is the only congressional district in the state where blacks are the majority and has a PVI of D+10.

Yeah, that one could get really ugly...

[gespb19]

Yeah, that one could get really ugly...

Whoever Bennie endorses will probably win. Thompson is closer to my ideology than the 3 other MS reps, but he offsets that by being a total idiot. Hopefully someone better will replace him.

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, that one could get really ugly...

Whoever Bennie endorses will probably win. Thompson is closer to my ideology than the 3 other MS reps, but he offsets that by being a total idiot. Hopefully someone better will replace him.

+100. I couldn't say better....