NH-UNH/WMUR: Clinton 51% Warren 20% Sanders 13%;R: Bush 15% Rubio 12% Walker 11%

[Mr. Morden]

UNH/WMUR poll of New Hampshire, conducted Apr. 24 - May 3:

PDF link

Clinton 51%
Warren 20%
Sanders 13%
Cuomo 3%
Biden 2%
O'Malley 1%
Webb 1%
Chafee 1%

UPDATE: Here's the GOP side of the poll:

http://www.wmur.com/blob/view/-/32850734/data/1/-/swryjt/-/GOP-Granite-State-Poll-5-15.pdf

Bush 15%
Rubio 12%
Walker 11%
Paul 10%
Cruz 6%
Trump 5%
Carson 4%
Perry 4%
Fiorina 4%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 3%
Jindal 2%
Pataki 2%
Santorum 2%
Kasich 1%
Graham 1%
Bolton, Ehrlich, Gilmore, King each get 0%

[Matty]

In the last poll done by WMUR, Hillary was at 60%

[Mr. Morden]

In the last poll done by WMUR, Hillary was at 60%

Wasn't this their last poll?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=206988.0

That has her at 58%.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Run Warren Run! Run Warren Run!

[IceSpear]

Warren

Junk poll!

Cuomo

Double junk poll!

[Eraserhead]

Interesting.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Warren

Junk poll!

Cuomo

Double junk poll!

My guess is that Sanders is at 20% or higher in the real world. Hell, he's at 16% in Arizona.

[Eraserhead]

Warren

Junk poll!

Cuomo

Double junk poll!

My guess is that Sanders is at 20% or higher in the real world. Hell, he's at 16% in Arizona.

Most of the poll was taken before he actually announced as well.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Warren

Junk poll!

Cuomo

Double junk poll!

My guess is that Sanders is at 20% or higher in the real world. Hell, he's at 16% in Arizona.

Most of the poll was taken before he actually announced as well.

That's a good point too. April 24th to May 3rd, for those who don't want to go back to the PDF.

[Skye]

When will they stop polling Warren and Cuomo? I want so see the real strength of Sanders.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

When will they stop polling Warren?

When the draft warren organization disbands.

[IceSpear]

When will they stop polling Warren?

When the draft warren organization disbands.

I don't think that's why, considering they included Cuomo who has already endorsed a candidate and has no draft campaign. More likely is that this pollster is just incompetent.

[Tender Branson]

Plz stop polling Warren/Biden/Cuomo !!!

They are not running.

I guess Sanders is already at 25% in NH right now in a Warren/Biden/Cuomo-less poll.

[Mr. Morden]

Second choice candidate:

Warren 23%
Biden 18%
Clinton 15%
Sanders 11%
Cuomo 8%
Webb 3%
Chafee 2%
O'Malley 2%

(Which means that ~35-40% of voters whose first choice is a non-Clinton candidate have Clinton as their second choice.)

Is there anyone who you would *NOT* vote for under any circumstances?

Biden 13%
Clinton 8%
Cuomo 8%
Sanders 3%
Chafee 2%
Webb 2%
O'Malley 1%
Warren 1%

fav/unfav % among Democratic voters:

Clinton 73/15% for +58%
Warren 62/9% for +53%
Sanders 45/11% for +34%
Biden 57/26% for +31%
Cuomo 28/25% for +3%
Webb 12/12% for +/-0
O'Malley 10/10% for +/-0
Chafee 8/10% for -2%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Plz stop polling Warren/Biden/Cuomo !!!

They are not running.

I guess Sanders is already at 25% in NH right now in a Warren/Biden/Cuomo-less poll.

Biden is still a maybe at this point. The conventional wisdom is that he won't run, but he doesn't rule it out.

[Ebsy]

I think we owe Uncle Joey enough that we can at least poll his nonexistent chances to win the nomination.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I think we owe Uncle Joey enough that we can at least poll his nonexistent chances to win the nomination.

Especially when he hasn't explicitly denied running.

[Mr. Morden]

GOP results for the poll are now out as well:

http://www.wmur.com/blob/view/-/32850734/data/1/-/swryjt/-/GOP-Granite-State-Poll-5-15.pdf

Bush 15%
Rubio 12%
Walker 11%
Paul 10%
Cruz 6%
Trump 5%
Carson 4%
Perry 4%
Fiorina 4%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 3%
Jindal 2%
Pataki 2%
Santorum 2%
Kasich 1%
Graham 1%
Bolton, Ehrlich, Gilmore, King each get 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Is there anyone you would *NOT* vote for under any circumstances?

Trump 21%
Christie 13%
Bush 8%
Paul 5%
Cruz 5%
Fiorina 4%
Santorum 4%
Pataki 4%
Huckabee 2%
Graham 2%
Perry 1%
Jindal 1%
Walker 1%
Rubio 1%
Carson 1%
Bolton 1%
Kasich, Ehrlich, Gilmore, King 0% each

fav/unfav %

Rubio 60/16% for +44%
Walker 50/14% for +36%
Carson 34/12% for +22%
Paul 51/31% for +20%
Cruz 44/29% for +15%
Huckabee 45/32% for +13%
Bush 45/34% for +11%
Jindal 32/21% for +11%
Fiorina 29/19% for +10%
Perry 40/35 for +5%
Kasich 20/17% for +3%
Bolton 20/20% for +/-0
Christie 39/40% for -1%
Santorum 35/37% for -2%
Graham 25/29% for -4%
Ehrlich 6/13% for -7%
Gilmore 4/12% for -8%
Pataki 22/32% for -10%
King 8/26% for -18%
Trump 27/56% for -29%

Bush's favorability is pretty weak, given that he's leading the poll.  45% favorable / 34% unfavorable is actually pretty pathetic for the New Hampshire frontrunner.  I don't think Romney's #s were ever that bad in NH in the 2012 cycle, for example.  Of course, Romney's lead in the NH polls was much bigger.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: New Hampshire President by University of New Hampshire on 2015-05-03

Summary:

Bush:	15%
Rubio:	12%
Walker:	11%
Paul:	10%
Cruz:	6%
Other:	32%
Undecided:	14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: New Hampshire President by University of New Hampshire on 2015-05-03

Summary:

Clinton:	51%
Sanders:	13%
Other:	28%
Undecided:	8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details