UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[Hnv1]

So Cameron pulled a Netanyahu. Shame.
Plus side is LD wiped out

[MT Treasurer]

Warwickshire North (Lab. target No. 1) - Exit poll results:

Labour: 39%
Conservatives: 37%

Hendon (Lab. target No. 3) - Exit poll results:

Labour: 43%
Conservatives: 42%

[Simfan34]

I feel a little sick.

...but why?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No those aren't exit poll results. They are projects based on the data from the exit poll.

[Lumine]

Even if the exit poll is wrong, it can't be that wrong. Cameron lives.

It can be that wrong; Oct 1974 is a classic example.

What happened then? I know about 1992, but I haven't heard of Oct 1974 as an exit polling snafu.

I think the exit poll in 1974 showed a Labor majority of 130 or so, and in the end their majority was just 4 seats.

[Beezer]

About that YouGov poll:

YouGov has not done an exit poll. A re-contact survey today simply gave us no reason to change our final numbers from yesterday.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/596427188645326848

[Gallium]

YouGov's "exit poll" says: Con 284, Lab 263, LD 31, SNP 48

This has a sample size of 6000. The BBC one has 20,000...

[Torie]

I wonder how much the Labour tanking is due to anger at the SNP, and just saying no to any chance of Labour becoming SNP lapdogs? In hindsight, Ed probably should have given the SNP a good tongue lashing. I have this feeling that Scotland will not be part of the UK for that much longer. The dynamic is just an intolerable situation for Labour, who might be tempted to tell them to just get the F out.

[136or142]

To speed things up, I suggest using my idea:  take all the ballots, put them in a big pile, and randomly pick one.  Whoever is marked on that ballot wins!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Is there any possibility of UKIP voters claiming to have voted for the Tories in the exit poll?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Even if the exit poll is wrong, it can't be that wrong. Cameron lives.

It can be that wrong; Oct 1974 is a classic example.

What happened then? I know about 1992, but I haven't heard of Oct 1974 as an exit polling snafu.

I think the exit poll in 1974 showed a Labor majority of 130 or so, and in the end their majority was just 4 seats.

Wasn't that 1964?

Anyway, the BBC poll was quite wrong in 1987 if I'm not mistaken.

[Lief 🗽]

Is there any possibility of UKIP voters claiming to have voted for the Tories in the exit poll?

Could be a shy-UKIP (or a shy-unionist in Scotland) effect in the exit poll, yeah.

[ag]

Is there any possibility of UKIP voters claiming to have voted for the Tories in the exit poll?

There is always a possibility of anything. Lets's wait.

[BaconBacon96]

WHAT THE FYCK

[Clyde1998]

Sunderland North South declaration imminent.

[Lief 🗽]

If the Lib Dems are really down to 10 and Nick Clegg is still re-elected I'm gonna be super mad.

[Lumine]

Even if the exit poll is wrong, it can't be that wrong. Cameron lives.

It can be that wrong; Oct 1974 is a classic example.

What happened then? I know about 1992, but I haven't heard of Oct 1974 as an exit polling snafu.

I think the exit poll in 1974 showed a Labor majority of 130 or so, and in the end their majority was just 4 seats.

Wasn't that 1964?

Anyway, the BBC poll was quite wrong in 1987 if I'm not mistaken.

I may be mistaken, but I'm not sure they actually did exit polls as early as 1964.

[Torie]

If the Lib Dems are really down to 10 and Nick Clegg is still re-elected I'm gonna be super mad.

If the LD's get but 10 seats, the odds are really, really low that Nick is one of them.

[Gass3268]

YouGov's "exit poll" says: Con 284, Lab 263, LD 31, SNP 48

This has a sample size of 6000. The BBC one has 20,000...

Increase in polling size after 2,000 respondents has almost no effect on the margin of error.

[Joe Republic]

The BBC exit poll numbers would give CON+LD+DUP a smaller majority than the Tories in 1992, wouldn't it?  Yeah, good luck holding on to that.

[ag]

YouGov's "exit poll" says: Con 284, Lab 263, LD 31, SNP 48

This has a sample size of 6000. The BBC one has 20,000...

Increase in polling size after 2,000 respondents has almost no effect on the margin of error.

Nationwide - you are right. But the point of polling 20,000 is to have constituency samples.

[jaichind]

There are rumors that Ed Balls is defeated

[The Free North]

UKIP is arguing against FPTP...how shocking

[ObserverIE]

Even if the exit poll is wrong, it can't be that wrong. Cameron lives.

It can be that wrong; Oct 1974 is a classic example.

What happened then? I know about 1992, but I haven't heard of Oct 1974 as an exit polling snafu.

I think the exit poll in 1974 showed a Labor majority of 130 or so, and in the end their majority was just 4 seats.

Wasn't that 1964?

Anyway, the BBC poll was quite wrong in 1987 if I'm not mistaken.

No. October 1974 initially predicted a clear Labour majority which disappeared over the course of the night.

[Torie]

There are rumors that Ed Balls is defeated

That is based on some exit poll leak for this seat?