UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)  (Read 174207 times)
afleitch
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« Reply #150 on: May 07, 2015, 04:10:01 PM »

I feel a little sick.
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Lurker
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« Reply #151 on: May 07, 2015, 04:10:16 PM »

But surely all the super-mega-hyper popular Lib Dem MPs are going to win, despite the party's  poor numbers at national level. We've been told so for months. Tongue
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jaichind
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« Reply #152 on: May 07, 2015, 04:10:23 PM »

So the seat projection is that SNP won each and every Scottish seat (isn't 58 seats all Scotland has?), and the LD's have 10 seats?

58 out of 59 seats.  Wow.  I figured anti-SNP tactical voting would save a few seats but exit polls says not good enough.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #153 on: May 07, 2015, 04:10:29 PM »


Why? Don't you support SNP?
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Vosem
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« Reply #154 on: May 07, 2015, 04:11:02 PM »

So the seat projection is that SNP won each and every Scottish seat (isn't 58 seats all Scotland has?), and the LD's have 10 seats?

No, Scotland has 59. One seat resisted the onslaught.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #155 on: May 07, 2015, 04:11:45 PM »

Tories must have cleaned up Cornwall, and massive UKIP tactical voting in Con-Lab marginals.  Epic failure for pollsters.
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Vosem
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« Reply #156 on: May 07, 2015, 04:12:02 PM »

DUP on 8, so it seems likely Alliance has held on if the poll is right?

That or they lost Upper Bann, which was marginal in 2010.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #157 on: May 07, 2015, 04:12:34 PM »

Not surprising fter the media gave the election to Conservative way before it began, as a thank you gift for lack of action after Leveson inquiry.
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Vega
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« Reply #158 on: May 07, 2015, 04:12:43 PM »

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MaxQue
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« Reply #159 on: May 07, 2015, 04:13:12 PM »

Tories must have cleaned up Cornwall, and massive UKIP tactical voting in Con-Lab marginals.  Epic failure for pollsters.

Or epic failure by exit pollsters. One of them failed.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #160 on: May 07, 2015, 04:14:19 PM »

Regarding 1992 comparisons, the exit polls were actually wrong that year. I point his out as a pedant.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #161 on: May 07, 2015, 04:14:40 PM »

Wow! Insane result.
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DL
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« Reply #162 on: May 07, 2015, 04:15:43 PM »

It's interesting how often incumbents do better than the final polls predict. In 2010 Labour actually did a lot better than was expected in the polls
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Beezer
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« Reply #163 on: May 07, 2015, 04:15:57 PM »

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Helsinkian
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« Reply #164 on: May 07, 2015, 04:16:37 PM »

Ceredigion to Plaid Cymru, I suppose?
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Iosif
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« Reply #165 on: May 07, 2015, 04:16:40 PM »

Do exit polls factor in postal ballots? Half the people I know voted through the post.
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Beezer
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« Reply #166 on: May 07, 2015, 04:16:53 PM »

Paddy Ashdown says he'll eat his hat if exit poll turns out to be true.
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jaichind
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« Reply #167 on: May 07, 2015, 04:17:15 PM »

If exit poll holds then SNP won this election in so many ways.  Total victory Scotland is only one of its victories. Triggering a UKIP tactical voting in England & Wales scared of a LAB-SNP deal is another.  The political narrative of Scotland and rest of UK are now completely split. SNP completely dominated this election.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #168 on: May 07, 2015, 04:17:42 PM »

LOL Lord Ashdown saying he will eat his hat if this exit poll is right...
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Torie
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« Reply #169 on: May 07, 2015, 04:17:56 PM »
« Edited: May 07, 2015, 04:21:01 PM by Torie »

So either the pre election polls were disastrously wrong, or the exit poll is disastrously wrong, or both were just majorly wrong. How could this happen? What spin will the pollsters offer up as an excuse for their continued existence in Britain. Or have Brits learned the fine art of lying to pollsters, which if so, I salute them.

Did the UKIP vote move massively to the Tories, outside of where they were in the hunt? Is that part of it? It would be nice if they showed the party percentages of the popular vote. Just showing seats is really hiding the ball. It's like numbers coming from outer space, that have next to no meaning as to the mechanisms, other than the Scotland thing.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #170 on: May 07, 2015, 04:18:23 PM »

All I can say now is....

bloody hell.
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afleitch
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« Reply #171 on: May 07, 2015, 04:18:38 PM »

Regarding 1992 comparisons, the exit polls were actually wrong that year. I point his out as a pedant.

The %'s were not far wrong that year, but the projection was wrong. It would be nice to see aggregate voting intention figures for this exit poll.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #172 on: May 07, 2015, 04:18:53 PM »

what the christ

Any chance this is wrong?
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rob in cal
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« Reply #173 on: May 07, 2015, 04:19:17 PM »

Any guesses as to the Scottish seat that SNP didn't win assuming exits are correct.
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cp
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« Reply #174 on: May 07, 2015, 04:19:59 PM »


Yes. The 2010 exit polls slightly overestimated the Tories and Lib Dems, and slightly underestimated Labour.

With the numbers that have been reported, that could be enough to deny the Tories/Lib Dems a majority

Also, keep in mind the Israeli election in March. The exit polls showed a tight race. Likud ended up running away with it once the votes were actually tallied.
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