UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)  (Read 174223 times)
Lief 🗽
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« Reply #175 on: May 07, 2015, 04:20:16 PM »

YouGov's "exit poll" says: Con 284, Lab 263, LD 31, SNP 48
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #176 on: May 07, 2015, 04:20:50 PM »


It's possible: they have been wrong before and sometimes massively. Of course (alas) they are sometimes also right. We have to wait.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #177 on: May 07, 2015, 04:21:07 PM »

YouGov's "exit poll" says: Con 284, Lab 263, LD 31, SNP 48

I'd...rather believe this for now.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #178 on: May 07, 2015, 04:21:42 PM »

Labour deputy leader doesn't sound confident at all. Jesus christ.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #179 on: May 07, 2015, 04:22:01 PM »

LOL Lord Ashdown saying he will eat his hat if this exit poll is right...

He didn't looked shocked but I'm sure he's quacking inside at these figures Shocked
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
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« Reply #180 on: May 07, 2015, 04:22:18 PM »

So what you're saying is we still have no ing clue and just have to wait for the results? I'll be damned.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #181 on: May 07, 2015, 04:23:03 PM »

Even if the exit poll is wrong, it can't be that wrong. Cameron lives.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #182 on: May 07, 2015, 04:23:08 PM »

Any guesses as to the Scottish seat that SNP didn't win assuming exits are correct.
Orkney & Shetland.
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Torie
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« Reply #183 on: May 07, 2015, 04:23:16 PM »


It's possible: they have been wrong before and sometimes massively. Of course (alas) they are sometimes also right. We have to wait.

The early seat calls up in North England suddenly have more meaning, don't they?  Nuneaton (sp) will be a good reality check.
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Beet
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« Reply #184 on: May 07, 2015, 04:23:35 PM »

Ugh, this is terrible. Sad
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #185 on: May 07, 2015, 04:24:44 PM »

Nuneaton isn't in the North.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #186 on: May 07, 2015, 04:24:51 PM »

Bummed, but not terribly surprised.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #187 on: May 07, 2015, 04:25:24 PM »

Any indication of overall popular vote shares of the parties from these exit polls?
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joevsimp
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« Reply #188 on: May 07, 2015, 04:26:09 PM »


It's possible: they have been wrong before and sometimes massively. Of course (alas) they are sometimes also right. We have to wait.

The early seat calls up in North England suddenly have more meaning, don't they?  Nuneaton (sp) will be a good reality check.

look at how close Sunderland Central is in half an hour or so
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Umengus
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« Reply #189 on: May 07, 2015, 04:26:18 PM »

lol (for now)
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #190 on: May 07, 2015, 04:26:34 PM »

Regarding 1992 comparisons, the exit polls were actually wrong that year. I point his out as a pedant.

The %'s were not far wrong that year, but the projection was wrong. It would be nice to see aggregate voting intention figures for this exit poll.

And everyone CALM DOWN. The exit polls are not the results... they might be accurate, they might not.
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Torie
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« Reply #191 on: May 07, 2015, 04:26:42 PM »

So what you're saying is we still have no ing clue and just have to wait for the results? I'll be damned.

Ironically, if the LD collapse is real, but the Tory total overstated, suddenly Labor is in a much better position. Suddenly the Tories need about 305 seats or so to make it happen, rather than 290, or close to it. If.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #192 on: May 07, 2015, 04:27:26 PM »

Even if the exit poll is wrong, it can't be that wrong. Cameron lives.

It can be that wrong; Oct 1974 is a classic example.
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cp
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« Reply #193 on: May 07, 2015, 04:27:35 PM »


It's possible: they have been wrong before and sometimes massively. Of course (alas) they are sometimes also right. We have to wait.

The early seat calls up in North England suddenly have more meaning, don't they?  Nuneaton (sp) will be a good reality check.

look at how close Sunderland Central is in half an hour or so

What should we look for? What numbers would indicate a pro-Tory or pro-Labour discrepancy in the exit poll?
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #194 on: May 07, 2015, 04:28:01 PM »

So what you're saying is we still have no ing clue and just have to wait for the results? I'll be damned.

Ironically, if the LD collapse is real, but the Tory total overstated, suddenly Labor is in a much better position. Suddenly the Tories need about 305 seats or so to make it happen, rather than 290, or close to it. If.

I'm not sure it'd even have to be 'way, way' overstated.
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Peter
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« Reply #195 on: May 07, 2015, 04:28:26 PM »

I'm going to make one suggestion why the BBC et al exit could be wrong. That poll is taken outside polling stations rather than phone/net polling.

Is it possible we have shy Unionist voters in Scotland and shy LD voters in England?
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Torie
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« Reply #196 on: May 07, 2015, 04:28:36 PM »


Oh, where is it? I just assumed all the early seat calls were up north, since all them were Labour playgrounds, sans Nuneaton. Silly me.
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Torie
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« Reply #197 on: May 07, 2015, 04:29:21 PM »

So what you're saying is we still have no ing clue and just have to wait for the results? I'll be damned.

Ironically, if the LD collapse is real, but the Tory total overstated, suddenly Labor is in a much better position. Suddenly the Tories need about 305 seats or so to make it happen, rather than 290, or close to it. If.

I'm not sure it'd even have to be 'way, way' overstated.

Yes, notice I edited my post. Smiley
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Vosem
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« Reply #198 on: May 07, 2015, 04:29:44 PM »

Even if the exit poll is wrong, it can't be that wrong. Cameron lives.

It can be that wrong; Oct 1974 is a classic example.

What happened then? I know about 1992, but I haven't heard of Oct 1974 as an exit polling snafu.
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YL
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« Reply #199 on: May 07, 2015, 04:30:00 PM »

YouGov's "exit poll" says: Con 284, Lab 263, LD 31, SNP 48

I fear that's just Peter Kellner's prediction from yesterday.  It looks the same.

(But various sources do seem to be referring to it as a YouGov exit poll.)
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